"History is a wonderful thing, if only it was true"

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Politics - and Markets

From overseas, why one should pay attention to markets vs polls.

My opinion: markets people vote what they expect, polls what they "want"
Also : in polls... people lie.

FT.com / World - Punters more accurate than polls, says study:

"If you want to know who people really think will win the US presidential election, ask them to put their money where their votes are.

This is the basis for the predictive power of the Iowa Electronic Markets, run by the University of Iowa, which - according to new research - have for 20 years been more accurate at predicting the outcome of elections than opinion polls."


"Polls tend to be a static, one-time prediction," she said. "The market is a dynamic system that can respond instantaneously to the arrival of new information and asks traders to forecast how everyone will vote in the actual upcoming election, not just how they, the individual, will vote."

IEM 2008 US Democratic National Convention Market Price Graph

National Election
IEM 2008 US Presidential Election Vote Share Market Price Graph

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