"History is a wonderful thing, if only it was true"

Sunday, January 27, 2008


Somethings wrong here
Watching the interview, and the body language.

She would be answering in the affirmative, but at the same time, shaking her head from side to side.
I think this means it's a like

Face The Nation Transcript: 1.27.08, Featuring Interviews With Sen. Hillary Clinton, Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani - CBS News:

"(CBS) Appearing on CBS News' Face The Nation, Democratic president candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton sought to dispel criticism of her husband for making comments on the campaign trail that some have called inflammatory.

“I think it's human nature,' she told host Bob Schieffer. 'I think that the spouses of all three of us have, you know, been passionate and vigorous defenders of each of us, and maybe got a little carried away."

Then we had the following, with a noticeable shrug of her shoulders:

"My husband has such a great commitment to me and to my campaign. You know, he loves me," she said. "Husbands and wives get out there and work on each others' behalf. I certainly did that for him for many years. And I'm very grateful for all of the help he's given both supporting me, along with our daughter, and making the case for my candidacy.”

And what's with the Blue Dress???
Et Tu Brute?

Open mind

I'm still a skeptic... but, as one of my all time best friends is an engineer on the project, I'll keep an open mind.

Note that one of the strong issues is that it is designed to look and feel much like a 'conventional" product.

Chevrolet Equinox Fuel Cell Wins 2008 Green Car Vision Award | Green Car .com:

"The Chevrolet Equinox Fuel Cell has been honored with Green Car Journal’s Green Car Vision Award™, the first time the magazine has recognized a limited production vehicle for its forward-thinking technologies. Featuring General Motors’ fourth-generation fuel cell propulsion system, the Chevy Equinox Fuel Cell won out over fellow nominees including the BMW Hydrogen 7, Honda FCX Clarity, Phoenix Electric SUT, and Toyota Prius Plug-In. Nominees represent a variety of technologies and fuels including hydrogen fuel cell, hydrogen internal combustion, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric drive."

Friday, January 25, 2008

True Colors?

Hey ... wait a min.
Isn't there something called the 22nd Amendment?

Two term limit

Oh that's right, rules apply to the rest of us...

Clinton’s Campaign Sees Value in Keeping Former President in Attack Mode - New York Times:

"The Clintons have come full circle: They are truly two-for-the-price-of-one in this presidential race. Mr. Clinton used that phrase when he first ran in 1992, only to back off after voters raised eyebrows, but now the Clintons are all but openly running together as a power couple ready to take office in 2009. Mrs. Clinton views him as a full partner, her advisers say, relying on him over the last few weeks to salvage and steer her campaign."

Thursday, January 24, 2008


Missed intro
Interview on CNBC from Davos

On Tech
Good area to invest in, lacks leveage

Google as good example, inventive
MuSoft = GM
Auto industry was the tech industry of the 20's, but now just recreating the same thing, revamping and redesigning.
MuSoft... just iterations of Windoze

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Threads and influences

Shirley and I both like Diana Krall (btw, wife of Elvis Costello) ...
Reputed to be influenced by Astrud Gilberto, who was, in turn influenced by...
Chet Baker ... voice and horn supreme of the 60's -70's jazz era.

Such phrasing, voice or horn...


Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Trying to drink from a firehose

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

Trigger Pulling

Dow down about 400pts
But Fed cut rates

Time to deploy some reserves

Would have preferred a bit more panic, but fundamentals still sound (ex banking/housing)

Liquidity will pour into stocks, won't be too long.
Consumer weak, but consumer follows, does NOT lead.

Monday, January 21, 2008

Investment thoughts


Proposition of simple requirements for a modern economy
(trying to boil down to just a few factors)

Fresh Water – how to play, maybe water purification.

Food – moving from a period of falling food prices to one of rising ones, due to
1) competition from energy ( ethanol = burning food )
2) rising living standards, esp. in Asia, and demand for more protein in the diet (meat, which increases demand for grain)

Fuel / Energy – ongoing increases in demand, again from developing markets

Finance – the problem with finance is that, as one wag at Wells Fargo put it: “why invent new ways to loose money when the old ones work so well”
(see below)

Real Estate – can become over built
Location location location

Observations (relating to entities I have an interest in)

Purity Foods, pressured by alternatives, and wheat prices
But pressure will be on conventional pricing as well, therefore a halo or umbrella for pricing

Earthy.com – gourmet, specialty products, pricing
Whole foods actually sees demand go up in economic slow downs as
a) high end customers who would eat out, cook at home more
b) “true believers” stick with products

Cherry Capital Foods – should be able to play on the “local goods” pricing
Exposure is to produce, not grains

Dec 11th CNBC Becky Quick interview with Warren Buffett here

Becky: You know, Larry Bossidy was a guest host of Squawk Box this morning. He said, when he looks out at the market and looks at financials, he can't believe how much they've been beaten down and he says that could be the best-performing sector next year. Is that a view you might share with him?

Buffett: Well, we own a few. What you'll see in the financials, I think you'll see an enormous divergence in the performance. I wouldn't want to be, I wouldn't think in terms of the group there, because some of them have done some very dumb things. John Stumpf (CEO) of Wells Fargo had the best quote. He said it's puzzling to him why bankers have come up with these new ways to lose money when the old ways were working so well. (Laughs.) But they have. And in some places it's really been brutal. Other places, it doesn't make much difference. So I think if the group gets knocked down and you can pick out the better companies, the ones that really haven't gone crazy in recent years, particularly in the real-estate field, it would be a very good place to look.


Going over year end, and other, notes


Mostly back when I was trading.

My failure to accept “conventional wisdom” in Economics may have enhanced my ability to trade, maybe now, to invest.
This has led to …the recognition that markets, like the economy, are seldom rational.

I have tended to read the tea leaves (often the press) for sense of the Zeitgeist, and play with or against it.

While I was suppose to be a "whiz" at political science (hey this is many years ago back in college), I got fed up
Pol-Sci – degenerated into poll taking
Note that I attempted to do my independent study on street racing, but was shot down.
My perception was that it was social behavor, political in the sense that it was "extra-legal"


Shirley decided to restart her blog
Dormant since August .... of 2006!

Well, we had to figure out how to reclaim it since neither of us recalled the log on

After several false starts and dead ends we managed to do it
Maybe not ready for prime... yet, but we did get her restarted!

Sunday, January 20, 2008


Must read for Marketing
Seth's Blog

Note that one of Seth's books is "All Marketers Are Liars: The Power of Telling Authentic Stories in a Low-Trust World"

Soichiro Honda quote : "'The product cannot lie"

How true

Bum Steer

Gives the term a new meaning

YouTube - NAIAS Dodge Press Conference - Humping Cattle

Ah the challenges of working with live animals
Esp as into intro for the new Dodge "Ram"

Friday, January 18, 2008

The Elephant in the Room

In short ... demographics rule.
The sub-prime mess is a pimple on the elephant's ass.

Developments : Why Baby Boomers May Bust the Housing Market:

"Think the current housing downturn and the subprime mortgage mess is the worst of the housing market’s problems? Not so, according to a report published this month in the Journal of the American Planning Association."

And there is nothing politicians can do about it, other than , maybe, curb building.
The "pig in the python" keeps moving along.

"About to wreak havoc on the housing market are the 78 million American baby boomers who will “retire, relocate, and eventually withdraw from the housing market,” according to report authors Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography in the School of Policy, Planning and Development at the University of Southern California, and SungHo Ryu, an associate planner with the Southern California Association of Governments.

Using demographic data to show that individuals in their mid-60s tend to sell more often than buy, the authors contend that when boomers — a “dominant force in the housing market” — start reaching the age of 65 in the year 2011, a market shift will occur. Some retirees will be looking to downsize, others will relocate to warmer climes, while others will move to nursing homes, says Mr. Myers. As they transition out of the housing market or look to sell their homes, in some states there will be “more homes available for sale than there are buyers for them.” Home prices will soften.

The “sell-off” will create a sizeable hurdle for the housing market, because as Mr. Myers puts it, “It isn’t money that buys property, it’s warm bodies. If you don’t have enough warm bodies to fill up the space, the space stays empty.”

The report points out that the ratio of those aged 65 and older to working age (25 to 64) adults will increase by 67% between 2010 and 2030, and that when these older adults try to sell their “high-priced homes” to a “relatively smaller and less-advantaged generation” — a cohort whose buying power was diminished through the housing boom’s price increases — there will be more homes for sale."

Sunday, January 13, 2008


Hunkered down for weekend
Stayed away from phone, email etc till today
Did spend a LOT of time loading CD's on household drive...
Every time maybe I was done, found more not previously saved.

I think I got it now, about 17.5 Gig (maybe more downstate)
All run through Apple iTunes/Airport Ext. to the house sound system...
Hopefully no more scattered "jewel boxes" or "discussions" about how to sort/organize same

Next to get cheap used laptop to dedicate as "control panel"

Should have done this a long time ago.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Good idea or not?

Bank Agrees to Buy Troubled Loan Giant for $4 Billion - New York Times:

"Bank of America announced Friday that it has agreed to pay about $4 billion in stock to acquire Countrywide Financial, the troubled lender that became a symbol of the excesses that led to the subprime mortgage crisis.

“Countrywide presents a rare opportunity for Bank of America to add what we believe is the best domestic mortgage platform at an attractive price and to affirm our position as the nation’s premier lender to consumers,” Kenneth D. Lewis, Bank of America’s chairman and chief executive officer, said in a statement."

Brilliant move or ... paraphrasing . John Stumpf (CEO) of Wells Fargo : He said it's puzzling to him why bankers have come up with these new ways to lose money when the old ways were working so well.

Saturday, January 05, 2008


Tierney says take global warming with a grain of salt

Are There Any Good Weather Omens? - TierneyLab - Science - New York Times Blog

Best to take John with a pinch too, but at least he does have some mention of alternative thinking.

Personally, I like to see all sides.

The comments get into too much of a shouting match ...
But maybe worth chasing some of the links

6th Basic food Group

Good for more than warding off Vampires

Unlocking the Benefits of Garlic

"The power to boost hydrogen sulfide production may help explain why a garlic-rich diet appears to protect against various cancers, including breast, prostate and colon cancer, say the study authors. Higher hydrogen sulfide might also protect the heart, according to other experts. Although garlic has not consistently been shown to lower cholesterol levels, researchers at Albert Einstein College of Medicine earlier this year found that injecting hydrogen sulfide into mice almost completely prevented the damage to heart muscle caused by a heart attack."

Friday, January 04, 2008

Cherry Capital Foods

My only real "start up" in '07 makes NPR's Morning Edition

Click here for link to the coverage and audio

Original audio on Interlochen Public Radio here

Cherry Capital Foods will fulfill the distribution function for Taste The Local Difference

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Justin Wolfers "gets it"

Skip following the "polls" follow the markets

In "markets" the participants "bet" real money on expected outcomes, what they expect, not what they "want".

One might "want" McCain to win, but expect Hillary to win.

While in polls, people answer what they "want" to happen, even who they will vote for, but not what they expect to happen.
Also, in polls, people sometimes lie.

Best Bet for Next President: Prediction Markets - WSJ.com: "As the 2008 presidential race heats up, voters are overwhelmed by a flood of new data: Who is ahead in the polls? Who is winning the 'money race'? How are the dynamics of the race likely to respond as the candidates tack left and right, advertising strategies change, and we learn whose Web site is drawing more eyeballs?

Political prediction markets provide us -- the consumers of this information -- with a way to cut through this clutter.

A prediction market is a bit like the stock market, except that you are buying shares whose value depends on the success of a political candidate, rather than the profits earned by a corporation. And just as stock prices are a useful barometer of the health of a company, so too the price of a prediction contract is a barometer of the health of a political campaign."

Read the whole thing, and check the sidebars.

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Think Different

One trick is to really learn to think "outside the box" or maybe be just enough removed from day to day (week to week, month to month) dealing with details.

Innovative Minds Don’t Think Alike - New York Times