Moore's law (halving of cost of transistors every 18 months) does not apply here.
Simple physics - storage takes atoms
Atoms equal matter which equal mass
A Quest for Batteries to Alter the Energy Equation - NYTimes.com:
"Automakers need improvements in batteries “everywhere we can get it,” Mr. Miller said.
In 1991 the Advanced Battery Consortium was founded and set a near-term target for developing a battery that would cost $150 per kilowatt-hour of storage. (A kilowatt-hour sells for about a dime and will move a car three or four miles.)
Eighteen years later, prices are in the range of $750 to $1,000. By comparison, a lead-acid battery in a conventional car costs less than $100 for that much capacity, although it is much too heavy to build an electric car around and not durable enough.
Now the Energy Department has a new goal: $500 by 2012.
“We think we can make that,” said Patrick Davis, the program manager at the Energy Department’s vehicle technologies program."
We'll see plug in hybrids on the road, but not because of progress, because of tax policy ... $7500 credit.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Can we say Whiney Bitch?
On Sarah
Op-Ed Columnist - Sarah Grabs the Grievance Grab Bag From Hillary - NYTimes.com:
"As McCain pal and Republican strategist Mike Murphy so sagely observed recently: “If Sarah Palin looked like Golda Meir, would we even be talking about her today?”"
Op-Ed Columnist - Sarah Grabs the Grievance Grab Bag From Hillary - NYTimes.com:
"As McCain pal and Republican strategist Mike Murphy so sagely observed recently: “If Sarah Palin looked like Golda Meir, would we even be talking about her today?”"
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Sub Prime Governance ?
Just after watching finance head for Calif on CNBC about how totally dysfunctional the state's fiscal system is in his state, I spotted the following
Let's pick the worst of bad ideas, abandon leadership, just let the voters pick the most appealing offers. Let's not make hard decisions.
The Californication of Michigan | Democracy in America | Economist.com:
"MICHIGAN has become the sick man of the United States, with unemployment 50% higher than the national average, and dying industries that are begging the federal government for aid. The state's Democrats, who have controlled more and more of state government since the 2002 elections, have presided over some of the worst of it. They're now considering plans to place initiatives on the ballot in November 2010 with the aim of rescuing... well, it's not clear what they think they're rescuing."
Let's pick the worst of bad ideas, abandon leadership, just let the voters pick the most appealing offers. Let's not make hard decisions.
The Californication of Michigan | Democracy in America | Economist.com:
"MICHIGAN has become the sick man of the United States, with unemployment 50% higher than the national average, and dying industries that are begging the federal government for aid. The state's Democrats, who have controlled more and more of state government since the 2002 elections, have presided over some of the worst of it. They're now considering plans to place initiatives on the ballot in November 2010 with the aim of rescuing... well, it's not clear what they think they're rescuing."
Hangover on the Horizon
Public debt: The biggest bill in history | The Economist:
"Not since the second world war have so many governments borrowed so much so quickly or, collectively, been so heavily in hock. And today’s debt surge, unlike the wartime one, will not be temporary. Even after the recession ends few rich countries will be running budgets tight enough to stop their debt from rising further. Worse, today’s borrowing binge is taking place just before a slow-motion budget-bust caused by the pension and health-care costs of a greying population. By 2050 a third of the rich world’s population will be over 60. The demographic bill is likely to be ten times bigger than the fiscal cost of the financial crisis."
One simple answer ... raise the retirement age.
"Not since the second world war have so many governments borrowed so much so quickly or, collectively, been so heavily in hock. And today’s debt surge, unlike the wartime one, will not be temporary. Even after the recession ends few rich countries will be running budgets tight enough to stop their debt from rising further. Worse, today’s borrowing binge is taking place just before a slow-motion budget-bust caused by the pension and health-care costs of a greying population. By 2050 a third of the rich world’s population will be over 60. The demographic bill is likely to be ten times bigger than the fiscal cost of the financial crisis."
One simple answer ... raise the retirement age.
Sunday, July 26, 2009
More on Banking
Cleaning files
Spotted this from last spring
Charlie Munger, partner with Warren Buffet
Evil and Folly in banking
But bankers have built and maintained political clout
“Evil and folly have crept into our system at steadily increasing “amounts. And finally it helped create a catastrophe for everyone, created the biggest economic threat since 1930s. The conditions of the '20s and '30s gave us Adolf Hitler. That was really serious, and this one's not that serious, but it's the most serious we've had since that one. And it will be politically hard to remove from the system the evil and folly that helped create the mess, because the people who make a lot of money out of the system as it is have a lot of political power and they don't want it changed.”
Spotted this from last spring
Charlie Munger, partner with Warren Buffet
Evil and Folly in banking
But bankers have built and maintained political clout
“Evil and folly have crept into our system at steadily increasing “amounts. And finally it helped create a catastrophe for everyone, created the biggest economic threat since 1930s. The conditions of the '20s and '30s gave us Adolf Hitler. That was really serious, and this one's not that serious, but it's the most serious we've had since that one. And it will be politically hard to remove from the system the evil and folly that helped create the mess, because the people who make a lot of money out of the system as it is have a lot of political power and they don't want it changed.”
Hubris
Executive Summary - BusinessWeek:
"How Overconfidence Helped Sink the Street
"Was Bear Stearns' Jimmy Cayne the modern incarnation of Icarus? Like the Greek mythological character, Cayne and other erstwhile masters of the universe—Lehman Brothers' Richard Fuld and AIG's Joseph Cassano spring to mind—seem to share a personality trait: hubris. Delving into the roots of the financial crisis in an essay for the July 27 issue of The New Yorker, Malcolm Gladwell arrives at a psychological explanation for what went wrong.
Overconfidence, he points out, afflicts people in many walks of life—as an example, Gladwell cites Frederick Stopford, the British officer who led the disastrous invasion of Gallipoli in 1915. But it's particularly prevalent in the field of finance. Wall Street, after all, is largely built on trust, and swagger can be a key ingredient in winning other players' trust. Studies show that overconfidence (some prefer to call it arrogance) is more likely to set in as people get older and more experienced—when one is at the top of one's game. And paradoxically, the tendency to inflate the reliability of one's own judgment appears to increase when the task at hand is singularly complex, such as estimating market risk. What's more, biologists have documented that overconfidence is actually an adaptive trait. So don't count on natural selection to wipe out the species of cocky bankers. (The New Yorker)"
"How Overconfidence Helped Sink the Street
"Was Bear Stearns' Jimmy Cayne the modern incarnation of Icarus? Like the Greek mythological character, Cayne and other erstwhile masters of the universe—Lehman Brothers' Richard Fuld and AIG's Joseph Cassano spring to mind—seem to share a personality trait: hubris. Delving into the roots of the financial crisis in an essay for the July 27 issue of The New Yorker, Malcolm Gladwell arrives at a psychological explanation for what went wrong.
Overconfidence, he points out, afflicts people in many walks of life—as an example, Gladwell cites Frederick Stopford, the British officer who led the disastrous invasion of Gallipoli in 1915. But it's particularly prevalent in the field of finance. Wall Street, after all, is largely built on trust, and swagger can be a key ingredient in winning other players' trust. Studies show that overconfidence (some prefer to call it arrogance) is more likely to set in as people get older and more experienced—when one is at the top of one's game. And paradoxically, the tendency to inflate the reliability of one's own judgment appears to increase when the task at hand is singularly complex, such as estimating market risk. What's more, biologists have documented that overconfidence is actually an adaptive trait. So don't count on natural selection to wipe out the species of cocky bankers. (The New Yorker)"
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Banking
I've posted several times that "Banking should be BORING"
CNBC yesterday and Christopher Whalen of Institutional Risk Analysis commented that banks will go back to being treated like utilities.
You will buy them for dividend yield, not capital appreciation.
They are not "tech stocks"
Video clip here
Expect them to have "high single digit" ROE (Return on Equity)
CNBC yesterday and Christopher Whalen of Institutional Risk Analysis commented that banks will go back to being treated like utilities.
You will buy them for dividend yield, not capital appreciation.
They are not "tech stocks"
Video clip here
Expect them to have "high single digit" ROE (Return on Equity)
About that prediction
Last January
Looney Dunes: Potential weather changer
Although Mt. Redoubt has not fully blown it's top, some Russian volcano's have added to the cooling. Layer on low sunspot activity and we end up with record or near record cool spell
Caught report on Traverse City radio yesterday, maybe record of season degree days, and current highs (barely 60) are normal lows.
BTW - checked "Old Farmer's Almanac" - whoops
"Summer will be hotter than normal, on average, with an especially hot July followed by a cooler August. Rainfall will be slightly below normal."
Gong that one
Looney Dunes: Potential weather changer
Although Mt. Redoubt has not fully blown it's top, some Russian volcano's have added to the cooling. Layer on low sunspot activity and we end up with record or near record cool spell
Caught report on Traverse City radio yesterday, maybe record of season degree days, and current highs (barely 60) are normal lows.
BTW - checked "Old Farmer's Almanac" - whoops
"Summer will be hotter than normal, on average, with an especially hot July followed by a cooler August. Rainfall will be slightly below normal."
Gong that one
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Interesting ideas
Use of Algae might make sense
At least much more than corn, or likely wood
Going to "soft" structure rather than having to break down cellulose first.
Note that Venter will be "engineering" the algae.
Exxon to Invest Millions to Make Fuel From Algae - NYTimes.com:
"Algal biofuel, sometimes nicknamed oilgae by environmentalists, is a promising technology. Fuels derived from algae have molecular structures that are similar to petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and would be compatible with the existing transportation infrastructure, according to Exxon."
At least much more than corn, or likely wood
Going to "soft" structure rather than having to break down cellulose first.
Note that Venter will be "engineering" the algae.
Exxon to Invest Millions to Make Fuel From Algae - NYTimes.com:
"Algal biofuel, sometimes nicknamed oilgae by environmentalists, is a promising technology. Fuels derived from algae have molecular structures that are similar to petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and would be compatible with the existing transportation infrastructure, according to Exxon."
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
Book review
Not by me, but by The Economist
Maybe this goes on my "read sometime" list
Author is professor emeritus at Oxford and student of the Soviet Union
Communism: Dead end | The Economist:
"At first sight, all seem puzzling. Communism was an impractical mishmash of ideas, imposed by squabbling zealots that promised much, delivered little and cost millions of lives. It is striking that 36 countries at one time or another adopted this system and that five—Cuba, Laos, North Korea, Vietnam and the biggest of them all, China—still pay lip service to it."
Maybe this goes on my "read sometime" list
Author is professor emeritus at Oxford and student of the Soviet Union
Communism: Dead end | The Economist:
"At first sight, all seem puzzling. Communism was an impractical mishmash of ideas, imposed by squabbling zealots that promised much, delivered little and cost millions of lives. It is striking that 36 countries at one time or another adopted this system and that five—Cuba, Laos, North Korea, Vietnam and the biggest of them all, China—still pay lip service to it."
Monday, July 06, 2009
More on demographics
Brief, lighter piece on demographics and longer working lives.
Good ideas for helping the problems with "entitlements"
Work longer when you are productive, pay taxes rather than draw Social Security.
Tweak with provisions for rewarding work.
New Age Thinker - Forbes.com:
"In 1900 men enjoyed an average of two years of retirement. Shoven isn't going so far as to suggest a return to a retirement that measly, but the number of golden years will have to stop increasing. Just as we index the value of a government pension payment for inflation (a practice that began in the 1970s), Shoven wants us to index age for improved health when calculating timetables for Social Security eligibility and retirement account withdrawals. He also wants to throw in tax breaks as sweeteners for the hardworking."
Good ideas for helping the problems with "entitlements"
Work longer when you are productive, pay taxes rather than draw Social Security.
Tweak with provisions for rewarding work.
New Age Thinker - Forbes.com:
"In 1900 men enjoyed an average of two years of retirement. Shoven isn't going so far as to suggest a return to a retirement that measly, but the number of golden years will have to stop increasing. Just as we index the value of a government pension payment for inflation (a practice that began in the 1970s), Shoven wants us to index age for improved health when calculating timetables for Social Security eligibility and retirement account withdrawals. He also wants to throw in tax breaks as sweeteners for the hardworking."
Sunday, July 05, 2009
Provative Thoughts on Wealth and Debt
At least the author's answer is to ramp up innovation and productivity, investing in education and research, trim spending .... not raise taxes.
Reduce inequality by greater investment.
A tricky political path to take
FT.com / Comment / Opinion - Debt is capitalism’s dirty little secret:
"Just why is there so much debt in the Anglo-Saxon world? Bankers and regulators know well that it is in nobody’s long-term interests to have allowed borrowing to escalate to a position where the US now owes far more, as a multiple of the economy, than at the start of the Great Depression.
The answer is capitalism’s dirty little secret: excessive lending was the only way to maintain the living standards of the vast bulk of the population at a time when wealth was being concentrated in the hands of an elite."
Reduce inequality by greater investment.
A tricky political path to take
FT.com / Comment / Opinion - Debt is capitalism’s dirty little secret:
"Just why is there so much debt in the Anglo-Saxon world? Bankers and regulators know well that it is in nobody’s long-term interests to have allowed borrowing to escalate to a position where the US now owes far more, as a multiple of the economy, than at the start of the Great Depression.
The answer is capitalism’s dirty little secret: excessive lending was the only way to maintain the living standards of the vast bulk of the population at a time when wealth was being concentrated in the hands of an elite."
Demographics
First article in a series in latest Economist:
A survey of ageing populations: : A slow-burning fuse | The Economist
Important pieces on future developments, not just in American, Europe and Japan, but also China (old before rich) and the emerging countries of the world.
The entire world will be getting older as live expectancy increases (better health) and fertility rates drop to below replacement rates.
A survey of ageing populations: : A slow-burning fuse | The Economist
Important pieces on future developments, not just in American, Europe and Japan, but also China (old before rich) and the emerging countries of the world.
The entire world will be getting older as live expectancy increases (better health) and fertility rates drop to below replacement rates.
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Turn at hand?
Looks like it.
ISM - ISM Report - June 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business:
"A PMI in excess of 41.2 percent over a period of time generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore the PMI indicates growth for the second consecutive month in the overall economy and continuing contraction in the manufacturing sector. Ore stated 'The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through June 39.2 percent corresponds to a 0.6 percent decrease in real gross domestic product GDP . However if the PMI for June 44.8 percent is annualized it corresponds to a 1.1 percent increase in real GDP annually.'"
ISM - ISM Report - June 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business:
"A PMI in excess of 41.2 percent over a period of time generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore the PMI indicates growth for the second consecutive month in the overall economy and continuing contraction in the manufacturing sector. Ore stated 'The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through June 39.2 percent corresponds to a 0.6 percent decrease in real gross domestic product GDP . However if the PMI for June 44.8 percent is annualized it corresponds to a 1.1 percent increase in real GDP annually.'"
Monday, June 29, 2009
Concerns over lack of change on WallSt
The authors wrote back on June 7th about the lack of change in the rules of the game (hint, it's rigged).
My answer to their series of questions is that Wall St. has hijacked both major parties. The Democrats just as much as the Republicans, if not even more.
Serious reform may just be too hard to pull off.
Op-Ed Contributors - The Economy Is Still at the Brink - NYTimes.com:
"The storm is not over, not by a long shot. Huge structural flaws remain in the architecture of our financial system, and many of the fixes that the Obama administration has proposed will do little to address them and may make them worse. At another fund-raising event, for Senator Harry Reid, President Obama said: “We didn’t ask for the challenges that we face. But we are determined to answer the call to meet those challenges, to cast aside the old arguments and overcome the stubborn divisions and move forward as one people and one nation .... It will take time but I promise you, I promise you, I’ll always tell you the truth about the challenges we face.”
Keeping that statement in mind — as well as an abiding faith in the importance of properly functioning capital markets — we have come up with a set of questions meant to challenge a popular president, with vast majorities in Congress, to find the flaws in the system, to figure out what’s being done to fix them and to get to the truth about the difficulties we face as we set out to restore the proper functioning of our markets and our standing in the world."
My answer to their series of questions is that Wall St. has hijacked both major parties. The Democrats just as much as the Republicans, if not even more.
Serious reform may just be too hard to pull off.
Op-Ed Contributors - The Economy Is Still at the Brink - NYTimes.com:
"The storm is not over, not by a long shot. Huge structural flaws remain in the architecture of our financial system, and many of the fixes that the Obama administration has proposed will do little to address them and may make them worse. At another fund-raising event, for Senator Harry Reid, President Obama said: “We didn’t ask for the challenges that we face. But we are determined to answer the call to meet those challenges, to cast aside the old arguments and overcome the stubborn divisions and move forward as one people and one nation .... It will take time but I promise you, I promise you, I’ll always tell you the truth about the challenges we face.”
Keeping that statement in mind — as well as an abiding faith in the importance of properly functioning capital markets — we have come up with a set of questions meant to challenge a popular president, with vast majorities in Congress, to find the flaws in the system, to figure out what’s being done to fix them and to get to the truth about the difficulties we face as we set out to restore the proper functioning of our markets and our standing in the world."
Editor's Pick: Automated Numerical Search Speeds Design Optimization by Desktop Engineering
Big congrats to the folks at RCT (Red Cedar Tech)
Shameless plug as I own just short of a quarter of this little startup.
Editor's Pick: Automated Numerical Search Speeds Design Optimization by Desktop Engineering:
"I don't believe that I've ever seen 60 Minutes exposing the truth about numerical search algorithms. And I'm certain that when some of you tried to get your CFO to pay heed to them, you got that eyes-glazed over, I'll look into it kiss-off engineers know so well. But engineers in all sorts of manufacturing industries apply numerical search algorithms to linear and nonlinear acoustic, electrical, electromagnetic, fluid, structural, thermal, and multidisciplinary problems every day. And too many are wasting an incredible amount of time and compute resources wrestling with their search algorithms, jacking up costs and squandering time to market. HEEDS Professional from Red Cedar Technology optimizes your design optimization workflow by harnessing numerical search algorithms."
Shameless plug as I own just short of a quarter of this little startup.
Editor's Pick: Automated Numerical Search Speeds Design Optimization by Desktop Engineering:
"I don't believe that I've ever seen 60 Minutes exposing the truth about numerical search algorithms. And I'm certain that when some of you tried to get your CFO to pay heed to them, you got that eyes-glazed over, I'll look into it kiss-off engineers know so well. But engineers in all sorts of manufacturing industries apply numerical search algorithms to linear and nonlinear acoustic, electrical, electromagnetic, fluid, structural, thermal, and multidisciplinary problems every day. And too many are wasting an incredible amount of time and compute resources wrestling with their search algorithms, jacking up costs and squandering time to market. HEEDS Professional from Red Cedar Technology optimizes your design optimization workflow by harnessing numerical search algorithms."
But but but ...
I thought it was case closed, unanimous agreement that mankind is the greatest, nay, the sole cause of climate change...
Strassel: The Climate Change Climate Change - WSJ.com:
"Among the many reasons President Barack Obama and the Democratic majority are so intent on quickly jamming a cap-and-trade system through Congress is because the global warming tide is again shifting. It turns out Al Gore and the United Nations (with an assist from the media), did a little too vociferous a job smearing anyone who disagreed with them as 'deniers.' The backlash has brought the scientific debate roaring back to life in Australia, Europe, Japan and even, if less reported, the U.S."
Strassel: The Climate Change Climate Change - WSJ.com:
"Among the many reasons President Barack Obama and the Democratic majority are so intent on quickly jamming a cap-and-trade system through Congress is because the global warming tide is again shifting. It turns out Al Gore and the United Nations (with an assist from the media), did a little too vociferous a job smearing anyone who disagreed with them as 'deniers.' The backlash has brought the scientific debate roaring back to life in Australia, Europe, Japan and even, if less reported, the U.S."
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Shout out for Detroit
Despite Wall St. and Washington bringing Detroit's automakers to their knees, they DO make products that people buy.
We can advance the American dream: AutoWeek Magazine:
"Now, some reading these words might scoff. These are the same people who believe that Detroit failed to build cars America wants--micro-hybrid green cars--even though before the economic implosion, Detroit's market share accounted for nearly half of all vehicles sold. These are also the ones who pooh-pooh the fact that Detroit makes more hybrids than any other automaker. They also refuse to accept that Detroit holds more green patents than all other automakers combined."
We can advance the American dream: AutoWeek Magazine:
"Now, some reading these words might scoff. These are the same people who believe that Detroit failed to build cars America wants--micro-hybrid green cars--even though before the economic implosion, Detroit's market share accounted for nearly half of all vehicles sold. These are also the ones who pooh-pooh the fact that Detroit makes more hybrids than any other automaker. They also refuse to accept that Detroit holds more green patents than all other automakers combined."
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Inflation issues
Viewpoint on pending inflation
Alan more concerned about deflation
Economic View - Cross Inflation Off the Long List of Worries - NYTimes.com
Alan S. Blinder is a professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. He has advised many Democratic politicians.
Alan more concerned about deflation
Economic View - Cross Inflation Off the Long List of Worries - NYTimes.com
Alan S. Blinder is a professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. He has advised many Democratic politicians.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Problem solving
The forward by "King Kenny" does a good job of capturing why I liked racing so much.
Problem solving, and you are never finished
The Grand Prix Motorcycle: The Official Technical History (Hardcover)
Forward
By Kenny Roberts Sr.
I’ve been involved in motorcycle Grand Prix racing for more than half of my life. In racing you live day to day, season to season. You work all the time to solve problems – if you gear for turn three it’s wrong for turn eight. Which one will cost you more time? The bike is pushing or we have chatter. The crew can’t make the carburetion right. Because you can’t fix everything, you go to the starting line with problems, and you work through them in the race.
Afterwards, win or lose, you talk about it with the crew, the tire people, the engineers. Can we fix this before next race? When – and especially where – can we test this new front tire? Racing isn’t a fairytale with a happy ending – it’s a stream of problems, half answers, and coping with the rest. The team and rider that copes best has some chance of winning. It’s all about confidence – if your front tire starts to push, that stops you psychologically. You have to fix it.
After I’d been 500 champion a couple of times someone asked me if racing had become just a job for me. I said no. No one pays you enough money to do this if you’re miserable. We were based in Amsterdam then, where the North Sea makes the weather dark and rainy. I wanted to go testing even if it was raining and cold. I wanted to race.
Since then I’ve a team owner and then a “constructor” – we built our own three-cylinder 500 and then a four-stroke 990cc V5. Doing that gave me new perspectives on racing – and a lot more problems. Riders have personalities. When are those castings coming? Why does it have to be the welder who’s sick? They’re doing what to the rules?
This book is a history of the top-class Grand Prix motorcycle, 1949 to now. It shows that riders, crew, and the engineers have struggled with the same basic familiar problems (and each other) for 60 years – making tires grip and last, making bikes that do what the riders wants them to, making reliable power that the rider can use. Methods and materials change and computers get a lot of press now, but riders of the 1950’s would recognize the some old problems in their new clothing. The result of all those years of work on those problems is today’s much more capable race bikes and production bikes.
Problem solving, and you are never finished
The Grand Prix Motorcycle: The Official Technical History (Hardcover)
Forward
By Kenny Roberts Sr.
I’ve been involved in motorcycle Grand Prix racing for more than half of my life. In racing you live day to day, season to season. You work all the time to solve problems – if you gear for turn three it’s wrong for turn eight. Which one will cost you more time? The bike is pushing or we have chatter. The crew can’t make the carburetion right. Because you can’t fix everything, you go to the starting line with problems, and you work through them in the race.
Afterwards, win or lose, you talk about it with the crew, the tire people, the engineers. Can we fix this before next race? When – and especially where – can we test this new front tire? Racing isn’t a fairytale with a happy ending – it’s a stream of problems, half answers, and coping with the rest. The team and rider that copes best has some chance of winning. It’s all about confidence – if your front tire starts to push, that stops you psychologically. You have to fix it.
After I’d been 500 champion a couple of times someone asked me if racing had become just a job for me. I said no. No one pays you enough money to do this if you’re miserable. We were based in Amsterdam then, where the North Sea makes the weather dark and rainy. I wanted to go testing even if it was raining and cold. I wanted to race.
Since then I’ve a team owner and then a “constructor” – we built our own three-cylinder 500 and then a four-stroke 990cc V5. Doing that gave me new perspectives on racing – and a lot more problems. Riders have personalities. When are those castings coming? Why does it have to be the welder who’s sick? They’re doing what to the rules?
This book is a history of the top-class Grand Prix motorcycle, 1949 to now. It shows that riders, crew, and the engineers have struggled with the same basic familiar problems (and each other) for 60 years – making tires grip and last, making bikes that do what the riders wants them to, making reliable power that the rider can use. Methods and materials change and computers get a lot of press now, but riders of the 1950’s would recognize the some old problems in their new clothing. The result of all those years of work on those problems is today’s much more capable race bikes and production bikes.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Sows ears to silk purses
Brilliant summary
Public debt: The biggest bill in history | The Economist
Careful on fiscal tightening to avoid inflation or hyper-inflation, but make long term, serious changes.
Changes to reflect the reality of an aging population.
Simple : raise retirement ages, workers work longer, pay more taxes (over time), and draw less in pensions.
Retirement/Pensions have not kept up with increased life expectancy.
Also : in the US... healthcare reform.
Focus on health and healthy lifestyles, not cures after the fact.
Public debt: The biggest bill in history | The Economist
Careful on fiscal tightening to avoid inflation or hyper-inflation, but make long term, serious changes.
Changes to reflect the reality of an aging population.
Simple : raise retirement ages, workers work longer, pay more taxes (over time), and draw less in pensions.
Retirement/Pensions have not kept up with increased life expectancy.
Also : in the US... healthcare reform.
Focus on health and healthy lifestyles, not cures after the fact.
Friday, June 19, 2009
Whoo Hoo
One of my all time favorite investments
Neogen Named to Fortune's List of 40 Stocks 'To Retire On' :
"In making its selection, Fortune said: 'Newcomers include biotech Neogen (NEOG), which sells an array of products focused on food safety from farm to factory, including test kits that help foodmakers detect allergens, toxins, and bacteria like E. coli. This business should benefit from increased regulation and growing consumer concern about the food supply. The company, which boasts zero debt, posted its 64th consecutive profitable quarter in March.'"
Neogen Named to Fortune's List of 40 Stocks 'To Retire On' :
"In making its selection, Fortune said: 'Newcomers include biotech Neogen (NEOG), which sells an array of products focused on food safety from farm to factory, including test kits that help foodmakers detect allergens, toxins, and bacteria like E. coli. This business should benefit from increased regulation and growing consumer concern about the food supply. The company, which boasts zero debt, posted its 64th consecutive profitable quarter in March.'"
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
file under WTF ?
So, during a taping of an interview for NBC News, the President swatted a pesky fly.
Tape was broadcast last night ... and ...
The PETA Files: Obama and the Fly:
"In a nutshell, our position is this: He isn't the Buddha, he's a human being, and human beings have a long way to go before they think before they act."
Tape was broadcast last night ... and ...
The PETA Files: Obama and the Fly:
"In a nutshell, our position is this: He isn't the Buddha, he's a human being, and human beings have a long way to go before they think before they act."
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Reflections
6AM
A bit late this AM when I came down to make coffee
Grabbed camera first
Nice start to the day
A bit late this AM when I came down to make coffee
Grabbed camera first
Nice start to the day
Flight 1549
Talk about "cool" ...
Hero Pilot 'Sully' Stars at Safety Hearing - WSJ.com:
"After spotting a flock of birds that 'were very large and filled the entire windscreen' of the jet, Capt Sullenberger noticed a dramatic drop in thrust. Investigators later determined at least three birds were sucked into the engines. Disregarding air-traffic controller suggestions to return to LaGuardia or try to swoop into another nearby airport, Capt. Sullenberger set his sights on the surface of the Hudson.
With the plane's flaps out, speed dwindling fast and splashdown barely seconds away, Capt. Sullenberger asked his first officer: 'Got any ideas?' Co-pilot Jeff Skiles instantly replied: 'Actually not.'
Once the plane settled in the water and the crew realized the fuselage remained intact, Capt. Sullenberger told the safety board, he turned toward his first officer and both instinctively blurted out at the same instant: 'That wasn't as bad as I thought.'"
Hero Pilot 'Sully' Stars at Safety Hearing - WSJ.com:
"After spotting a flock of birds that 'were very large and filled the entire windscreen' of the jet, Capt Sullenberger noticed a dramatic drop in thrust. Investigators later determined at least three birds were sucked into the engines. Disregarding air-traffic controller suggestions to return to LaGuardia or try to swoop into another nearby airport, Capt. Sullenberger set his sights on the surface of the Hudson.
With the plane's flaps out, speed dwindling fast and splashdown barely seconds away, Capt. Sullenberger asked his first officer: 'Got any ideas?' Co-pilot Jeff Skiles instantly replied: 'Actually not.'
Once the plane settled in the water and the crew realized the fuselage remained intact, Capt. Sullenberger told the safety board, he turned toward his first officer and both instinctively blurted out at the same instant: 'That wasn't as bad as I thought.'"
Buy vs Rent
Some things change quickly, some don't
The hangover will be long and slow.
When nobody wants to be a broker, it may be time for a turn.
Economic View - Why Home Prices May Keep Falling - NYTimes.com:
"Several factors can explain the snail-like behavior of the real estate market. An important one is that sales of existing homes are mainly by people who are planning to buy other homes. So even if sellers think that home prices are in decline, most have no reason to hurry because they are not really leaving the market.
Furthermore, few homeowners consider exiting the housing market for purely speculative reasons. First, many owners don’t have a speculator’s sense of urgency. And they don’t like shifting from being owners to renters, a process entailing lifestyle changes that can take years to effect."
The hangover will be long and slow.
When nobody wants to be a broker, it may be time for a turn.
Economic View - Why Home Prices May Keep Falling - NYTimes.com:
"Several factors can explain the snail-like behavior of the real estate market. An important one is that sales of existing homes are mainly by people who are planning to buy other homes. So even if sellers think that home prices are in decline, most have no reason to hurry because they are not really leaving the market.
Furthermore, few homeowners consider exiting the housing market for purely speculative reasons. First, many owners don’t have a speculator’s sense of urgency. And they don’t like shifting from being owners to renters, a process entailing lifestyle changes that can take years to effect."
Monday, June 08, 2009
Prius ?
Not everybody loves it
New Car Reviews, Ratings & Pricing, Auto News for New Models – TTAC:
"If Ralph Nader had been an engineer, this is the car he would have designed, a vehicle for people who loathe automobiles."
New Car Reviews, Ratings & Pricing, Auto News for New Models – TTAC:
"If Ralph Nader had been an engineer, this is the car he would have designed, a vehicle for people who loathe automobiles."
Sunday, June 07, 2009
Powerful thiking on organization
How organized do you need to be, can you afford to be?
Clay Shirky on institutions vs. collaboration | Video on TED.com
about 20 min clip
Clay Shirky on institutions vs. collaboration | Video on TED.com
about 20 min clip
Tribal Thinking
Worthwhile talk (about 17 min) by Seth on the post-industrial, post mass media world and changes in the world
Seth Godin on the tribes we lead | Video on TED.com
Nobody wants your stuff until they are inspired to ...
Don't sell to those who don't care, connect with those who do caree
Seth Godin on the tribes we lead | Video on TED.com
Nobody wants your stuff until they are inspired to ...
Don't sell to those who don't care, connect with those who do caree
What sort of business to be in
Read it:
Seth's Blog: Harvesting
Good business rules
Big one is moat
Warren Buffett seems to have missed this one with newspapers
Moat dried up - internet
Seth's Blog: Harvesting
Good business rules
Big one is moat
Warren Buffett seems to have missed this one with newspapers
Moat dried up - internet
Ten years ago
It was just 10 years ago that Doc and friends threw down some dam good ideas
Doc Searls Weblog ...Cluetrain @10
Some business's got it, many didn't
Markets are conversations
Irony - as I post this, Grosse Pointe Blank is on and a character (Jeremy Piven) is at the wheel of the car screaming "Ten Years .... TEN YEARS AGO"
(John Cusack as hit man returning to High School Reunion)
Doc Searls Weblog ...Cluetrain @10
Some business's got it, many didn't
Markets are conversations
Irony - as I post this, Grosse Pointe Blank is on and a character (Jeremy Piven) is at the wheel of the car screaming "Ten Years .... TEN YEARS AGO"
(John Cusack as hit man returning to High School Reunion)
Genius ... pure genius
Well, maybe not when it comes to business and public policy
Great at getting PR, and selling movies but not sure of some of his "industrial policy"
MichaelMoore.com : Goodbye, GM ...by Michael Moore
I will grant that GM made some massive mistakes, but to be a cheerleader for the fall, that strikes me as a bit too far.
Washington has it's share of blame too.
How about higher gas taxes to encourage changes in behavior, how about shifting costs to the union earlier, how about the fact that, until the recession, the auto industry has been strong (foreign plants in the southern states churning out product).
Mass transit - yup, where you have mass populations, but not in rural areas.
Miss the bus, and you ... miss the bus.
Back to movies Mike
Great at getting PR, and selling movies but not sure of some of his "industrial policy"
MichaelMoore.com : Goodbye, GM ...by Michael Moore
I will grant that GM made some massive mistakes, but to be a cheerleader for the fall, that strikes me as a bit too far.
Washington has it's share of blame too.
How about higher gas taxes to encourage changes in behavior, how about shifting costs to the union earlier, how about the fact that, until the recession, the auto industry has been strong (foreign plants in the southern states churning out product).
Mass transit - yup, where you have mass populations, but not in rural areas.
Miss the bus, and you ... miss the bus.
Back to movies Mike
Saturday, June 06, 2009
Gold Bugged
I've never been "long" gold (held a position in the metal anticipating a rise in price)
I HAVE taken short positions, and have made some good money.
The point, as is pointed out below, gold has little intrinsic value, it costs money to own, and does not generate income.
ROI: Is Gold Headed For a Bubble? - WSJ.com:
"Ordinary U.S. investors, on average, aren't timing this market too well. Money flows into, and out of, exchange-traded bullions funds like GLD, and are tracked monthly by Financial Research Corp., an analytics company. Comparing them to gold prices over the past year is disheartening.
Gold spiked well above $900 an ounce in July 2008 and again this February and March. Those, of course, were the months when bullion funds reported by far their biggest net inflows. Yet when gold slumped, as it did last October and November and again in April, so did fund sales.
Rarely does anyone discuss the biggest problem with gold -- no one actually knows what this metal is really worth. After all, it generates no income. All the gains come from capital appreciation. And that, of course, is a gamble."
I HAVE taken short positions, and have made some good money.
The point, as is pointed out below, gold has little intrinsic value, it costs money to own, and does not generate income.
ROI: Is Gold Headed For a Bubble? - WSJ.com:
"Ordinary U.S. investors, on average, aren't timing this market too well. Money flows into, and out of, exchange-traded bullions funds like GLD, and are tracked monthly by Financial Research Corp., an analytics company. Comparing them to gold prices over the past year is disheartening.
Gold spiked well above $900 an ounce in July 2008 and again this February and March. Those, of course, were the months when bullion funds reported by far their biggest net inflows. Yet when gold slumped, as it did last October and November and again in April, so did fund sales.
Rarely does anyone discuss the biggest problem with gold -- no one actually knows what this metal is really worth. After all, it generates no income. All the gains come from capital appreciation. And that, of course, is a gamble."
File under Duh
Pigeons come home to roost
S.E.C. Accuses Countrywide’s Ex-Chief of Fraud - NYTimes.com:
"Citing e-mail messages in which Mr. Mozilo referred to Countrywide loan products as “toxic” and “poison,” S.E.C. officials said that he had misled investors about growing risks in the company’s lending practices from 2005 through 2007. During this time he also generated $140 million in profits by selling stock in the company, the S.E.C. said.
“This is the tale of two companies,” said Robert Khuzami, enforcement director at the S.E.C. “Countrywide portrayed itself as underwriting mainly prime-quality mortgages, using high underwriting standards. But concealed from shareholders was the true Countrywide, an increasingly reckless lender assuming greater and greater risk.”"
S.E.C. Accuses Countrywide’s Ex-Chief of Fraud - NYTimes.com:
"Citing e-mail messages in which Mr. Mozilo referred to Countrywide loan products as “toxic” and “poison,” S.E.C. officials said that he had misled investors about growing risks in the company’s lending practices from 2005 through 2007. During this time he also generated $140 million in profits by selling stock in the company, the S.E.C. said.
“This is the tale of two companies,” said Robert Khuzami, enforcement director at the S.E.C. “Countrywide portrayed itself as underwriting mainly prime-quality mortgages, using high underwriting standards. But concealed from shareholders was the true Countrywide, an increasingly reckless lender assuming greater and greater risk.”"
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Good insight from Doc on TV
TV is dying
Doc Searls Weblog : Journalism and Net Nativity
My comments :
Good to see a “think piece” from you again.
Followed by longer, thoughtful piece from Doc, much from late 90's
Good forethought
Doc Searls Weblog : We’re gonna need a bigger boat
Read it
Doc Searls Weblog : Journalism and Net Nativity
My comments :
Good to see a “think piece” from you again.
Quick replies
I rather like the new Newsweek, waited until the weekend, read most of it, and on reflection, it’s a bit like my Sunday routine of : CBS Sunday Morning while cooking and/or eating breakfast.
Other Sunday (non shouting) shows like Face the Nation, Stephanopolus(sp?) and now GPS (Zakaria) … all DVR’d for interruption (commercails) zapping.
Noting that, in general, the ads are well downmarket, Billy Mayes type stuff.
The rest of network TV is back to the wasteland.
Sports will still be compelling to those who follow them, as they are (somewhat) unpredictable.
CNBC works with the DVR well, as well as the mute function.
Slashes reading of WSJournal, even when that is online.
NYTimes is still my go to paper (filters on) as the Economist for weekly.
So many sources are online, from Nouriel Roubini to Kudlow
I’m sure you’ve seen Clay’s Gin, Television, and Social Surplus
http://www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/looking-for-the-mouse.html
Olde TV is dead, the devices may yet be useful, even if the “networks” aren’t
Followed by longer, thoughtful piece from Doc, much from late 90's
Good forethought
Doc Searls Weblog : We’re gonna need a bigger boat
Read it
The New Normal - not the Old Normal
Bottom line - I think he nails it.
From far to free wheeling finance to pending far to political economic decision making.
Less growth, higher unemployment, more government decision making.
Mohamed A. El-Erian
Life After the Financial Crisis - BusinessWeek:
"Get used to it. The legacy of the financial crisis will be overregulation and slow growth"
From far to free wheeling finance to pending far to political economic decision making.
Less growth, higher unemployment, more government decision making.
Mohamed A. El-Erian
Life After the Financial Crisis - BusinessWeek:
"Get used to it. The legacy of the financial crisis will be overregulation and slow growth"
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
More reading
Caught an interview with Bob last Saturday while doing some roadwork (tree clearing, pothole filling)
Left the radio on, doors to Jeep open
Interlochen Public Radio, "Michigan Writers"
Bob Butz - Writing The Wild
Guess I have to make some space on the bookshelves for a book or two
Bob certainly sounds like the gets the "up north" life and lifestyle, attitude etc.
Turns out he lives just a few miles south
Transplant from further east, understands the civility and neighborliness that I treasure up here.
Left the radio on, doors to Jeep open
Interlochen Public Radio, "Michigan Writers"
Bob Butz - Writing The Wild
Guess I have to make some space on the bookshelves for a book or two
Bob certainly sounds like the gets the "up north" life and lifestyle, attitude etc.
Turns out he lives just a few miles south
Transplant from further east, understands the civility and neighborliness that I treasure up here.
Odd Behaviors ... explained ?
Why do some folks splurge on "image" products
Findings - Message in What We Buy, but Nobody’s Listening - NYTimes.com:
"“Evolution is good at getting us to avoid death, desperation and celibacy, but it’s not that good at getting us to feel happy,” he says, calling our desire to impress strangers a quirky evolutionary byproduct of a smaller social world.
“We evolved as social primates who hardly ever encountered strangers in prehistory,” Dr. Miller says. “So we instinctively treat all strangers as if they’re potential mates or friends or enemies. But your happiness and survival today don’t depend on your relationships with strangers. It doesn’t matter whether you get a nanosecond of deference from a shopkeeper or a stranger in an airport.”"
Findings - Message in What We Buy, but Nobody’s Listening - NYTimes.com:
"“Evolution is good at getting us to avoid death, desperation and celibacy, but it’s not that good at getting us to feel happy,” he says, calling our desire to impress strangers a quirky evolutionary byproduct of a smaller social world.
“We evolved as social primates who hardly ever encountered strangers in prehistory,” Dr. Miller says. “So we instinctively treat all strangers as if they’re potential mates or friends or enemies. But your happiness and survival today don’t depend on your relationships with strangers. It doesn’t matter whether you get a nanosecond of deference from a shopkeeper or a stranger in an airport.”"
Sunday, May 24, 2009
New actors, same old script
White House Memo - Some Obama Enemies Are Made Totally of Straw - NYTimes.com:
"There was much outrage in 2006, for example, when Mr. Bush said that when it came to battling terrorists, “I need members of Congress who understand that you can’t negotiate with these folks,” implying that Democrats backed talks with Al Qaeda. That assertion was promptly, and angrily, disputed by Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts.
Now that there is a new team at the White House, guess who is knocking down straw men left and right? To listen to President Obama, a veritable army of naysayers has invaded Washington, urging him to sit on his hands at the White House and do nothing to address any of the economic or national security problems facing the country."
"There was much outrage in 2006, for example, when Mr. Bush said that when it came to battling terrorists, “I need members of Congress who understand that you can’t negotiate with these folks,” implying that Democrats backed talks with Al Qaeda. That assertion was promptly, and angrily, disputed by Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts.
Now that there is a new team at the White House, guess who is knocking down straw men left and right? To listen to President Obama, a veritable army of naysayers has invaded Washington, urging him to sit on his hands at the White House and do nothing to address any of the economic or national security problems facing the country."
Saturday, May 23, 2009
Series of Links relating to "Detroit"
Here are several links from the previous week as now GM heads towards bankruptcy.
Not that I support the management decisions of the "Big Three" but are politicians more competent to decide what we will drive?
I would much prefer changes in taxes (gas tax) and let consumers decide.
Small, "green" cars are fine for urban areas, those that may have insufficient public transit, but up here I see most folks in trucks or SUV's.
In part it's called winter, in part it's distance.
One size does not fit all.
Note that I have also blogged about hybrid trucks and SUV's making more sense than small cars, they just don't have the same image.
Why Government Can't Run a Business - WSJ.com
"Capitalism isn't perfect. Indeed, to paraphrase Winston Churchill's famous description of democracy, it's the worst economic system except for all the others. But the inescapable fact is that only the profit motive and competition keep enterprises lean, efficient, innovative and customer-oriented."
Car Crazy - WSJ.com:
Bankrupt companies making 39 mpg autos. Are we nuts?
"We wish these folks luck 'working together' with the Obama auto-design team. One thing seems certain by 2016: Taxpayers will be paying Detroit to make the cars Americans don't want, and then they will pay again either through (trust us) a gas tax or with a purchase subsidy. Even the French must think we're nuts."
Obama at the Auto Buffet - WSJ.com:
"With his latest installment of ever-higher fuel mileage requirements for the auto industry, Barack Obama embraces a momentary, crisis-spawned expansion of the art of the possible, unleavened by any art of the rationally desirable."
In U.S., Steps Toward Industrial Policy in Autos - NYTimes.com:
"“By any coherent definition, this is industrial policy,” said Marcus Noland, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Industrial policy refers to government programs tailored for a specific industry instead of actions whose effects are felt across an economy, like monetary policy or tax rates."
Not that I support the management decisions of the "Big Three" but are politicians more competent to decide what we will drive?
I would much prefer changes in taxes (gas tax) and let consumers decide.
Small, "green" cars are fine for urban areas, those that may have insufficient public transit, but up here I see most folks in trucks or SUV's.
In part it's called winter, in part it's distance.
One size does not fit all.
Note that I have also blogged about hybrid trucks and SUV's making more sense than small cars, they just don't have the same image.
Why Government Can't Run a Business - WSJ.com
"Capitalism isn't perfect. Indeed, to paraphrase Winston Churchill's famous description of democracy, it's the worst economic system except for all the others. But the inescapable fact is that only the profit motive and competition keep enterprises lean, efficient, innovative and customer-oriented."
Mr. Gordon is the author of "An Empire of Wealth: The Epic History of American Economic Power" (HarperCollins, 2004).
Car Crazy - WSJ.com:
Bankrupt companies making 39 mpg autos. Are we nuts?
"We wish these folks luck 'working together' with the Obama auto-design team. One thing seems certain by 2016: Taxpayers will be paying Detroit to make the cars Americans don't want, and then they will pay again either through (trust us) a gas tax or with a purchase subsidy. Even the French must think we're nuts."
Obama at the Auto Buffet - WSJ.com:
"With his latest installment of ever-higher fuel mileage requirements for the auto industry, Barack Obama embraces a momentary, crisis-spawned expansion of the art of the possible, unleavened by any art of the rationally desirable."
In U.S., Steps Toward Industrial Policy in Autos - NYTimes.com:
"“By any coherent definition, this is industrial policy,” said Marcus Noland, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Industrial policy refers to government programs tailored for a specific industry instead of actions whose effects are felt across an economy, like monetary policy or tax rates."
Sunday, May 17, 2009
“Whaddya Give”
Last night : another excellent "play" from Anne Marie
I think it may be her first "musical"
IPR News: Writer Dramatizes History of Empire, MI | Interlochen Public Radio
I had attended the auction about the time we bought what became "home" on the lake.
My memory is that the auction went for two days with 3 simultaneous auctioneers and they indeed had a lot of "stuff"
The performance build wonderfully, with the tension between "need" for things and for relationships
The brothers died bachelors
"...loosely based on the Roen brother’s story. In 1985, two of the five sons of the founding father of the Village of Empire, Andrew Roen, were found dead in their home of natural causes. The home was also stuffed with antiques, cash and unsigned wills. A three-day auction followed netting more than $200,000.
More from Leelanau Enterprise
I think it may be her first "musical"
IPR News: Writer Dramatizes History of Empire, MI | Interlochen Public Radio
I had attended the auction about the time we bought what became "home" on the lake.
My memory is that the auction went for two days with 3 simultaneous auctioneers and they indeed had a lot of "stuff"
The performance build wonderfully, with the tension between "need" for things and for relationships
The brothers died bachelors
"...loosely based on the Roen brother’s story. In 1985, two of the five sons of the founding father of the Village of Empire, Andrew Roen, were found dead in their home of natural causes. The home was also stuffed with antiques, cash and unsigned wills. A three-day auction followed netting more than $200,000.
Oomen created her main character by combining the mayor and the auctioneer into one person. As he drives the sales, the objects he sells trigger memories. And the stories portray the brothers at various stages of their lives."
More from Leelanau Enterprise
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Straw Man
Nouriel Roubini does a straw man argument
The sky is falling the sky is falling, the dollar is doomed
My question is why China puts their funds in the US Treasury market ... security, transparency, liquidity?
Op-Ed Contributor - The Almighty Renminbi? - NYTimes.com:
"But what could replace it? The British pound, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc remain minor reserve currencies, as those countries are not major powers. Gold is still a barbaric relic whose value rises only when inflation is high. The euro is hobbled by concerns about the long-term viability of the European Monetary Union. That leaves the renminbi."
But then he goes on to say ...
"At the moment, though, the renminbi is far from ready to achieve reserve currency status. China would first have to ease restrictions on money entering and leaving the country, make its currency fully convertible for such transactions, continue its domestic financial reforms and make its bond markets more liquid. It would take a long time for the renminbi to become a reserve currency, but it could happen."
The sky is falling the sky is falling, the dollar is doomed
My question is why China puts their funds in the US Treasury market ... security, transparency, liquidity?
Op-Ed Contributor - The Almighty Renminbi? - NYTimes.com:
"But what could replace it? The British pound, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc remain minor reserve currencies, as those countries are not major powers. Gold is still a barbaric relic whose value rises only when inflation is high. The euro is hobbled by concerns about the long-term viability of the European Monetary Union. That leaves the renminbi."
But then he goes on to say ...
"At the moment, though, the renminbi is far from ready to achieve reserve currency status. China would first have to ease restrictions on money entering and leaving the country, make its currency fully convertible for such transactions, continue its domestic financial reforms and make its bond markets more liquid. It would take a long time for the renminbi to become a reserve currency, but it could happen."
Campaings vs Governing
News Analysis - Obama After Bush - Leading by Second Thought - NYTimes.com:
"But the bottom line is that Mr. Obama’s course corrections have real-life consequences. Mr. Bush kept saying that he wanted to close Guantanamo Bay but could not find an effective replacement for it. So he never acted. Mr. Obama began with that action, and now discovers it is more difficult to accomplish than it seemed a few months ago.
“These issues are always more difficult in practice than they are in the environment of a campaign,” Samuel R. Berger, who served as President Bill Clinton’s national security adviser, said Friday. “In the end, what you have to remember is that President Obama is going to close Guantanamo and he is going to end torture. But I think everyone admits that doing so has proven to be more difficult than anyone anticipated.”"
"But the bottom line is that Mr. Obama’s course corrections have real-life consequences. Mr. Bush kept saying that he wanted to close Guantanamo Bay but could not find an effective replacement for it. So he never acted. Mr. Obama began with that action, and now discovers it is more difficult to accomplish than it seemed a few months ago.
“These issues are always more difficult in practice than they are in the environment of a campaign,” Samuel R. Berger, who served as President Bill Clinton’s national security adviser, said Friday. “In the end, what you have to remember is that President Obama is going to close Guantanamo and he is going to end torture. But I think everyone admits that doing so has proven to be more difficult than anyone anticipated.”"
Saturday, May 09, 2009
Demographics
I don't totally agree
Good choice of equities can counter performance issues.
My option would be to buy stocks of companies that raise their dividends regularly, over time this can greatly enhance returns.
FT.com / Markets / The long view - Long View: Why baby boomers will put their faith in bonds:
"Confidence in stocks is likely to have been shaken, as the realisation takes hold that bonds have beaten stocks over four decades.
Add to this the weight of demographics. Those who started saving in 1969 were in the early years of the baby boom generation. They have only a few years left to retirement, and suddenly have far less wealth set aside for it than they had thought. That will mean saving more, and it is likely that a big chunk of that money will go to bonds rather than stocks."
Good choice of equities can counter performance issues.
My option would be to buy stocks of companies that raise their dividends regularly, over time this can greatly enhance returns.
FT.com / Markets / The long view - Long View: Why baby boomers will put their faith in bonds:
"Confidence in stocks is likely to have been shaken, as the realisation takes hold that bonds have beaten stocks over four decades.
Add to this the weight of demographics. Those who started saving in 1969 were in the early years of the baby boom generation. They have only a few years left to retirement, and suddenly have far less wealth set aside for it than they had thought. That will mean saving more, and it is likely that a big chunk of that money will go to bonds rather than stocks."
FT.com / US / Economy & Fed - What a feeling: how emotions may yet save the economy
Happy Talk
First, talk the economy down, then get the bailout/legislation you want, then talk the economy up.
FT.com / US / Economy & Fed - What a feeling: how emotions may yet save the economy:
"...“we will never really understand important economic events unless we confront the fact that their causes are largely mental in nature”. Our “ideas and feelings” about the economy are not purely a rational reaction to data and experience; they themselves are an important driver of economic growth – and decline."
First, talk the economy down, then get the bailout/legislation you want, then talk the economy up.
FT.com / US / Economy & Fed - What a feeling: how emotions may yet save the economy:
"...“we will never really understand important economic events unless we confront the fact that their causes are largely mental in nature”. Our “ideas and feelings” about the economy are not purely a rational reaction to data and experience; they themselves are an important driver of economic growth – and decline."
Free Speach?
Post an Opinion, Go To Jail : Watts Up With That?
"...proposed a bill that would make it a federal felony to use blogs, text messages, and Internet messaging (”electronic means”) to harass someone and cause them “emotional distress.”
What about the Congressional Record?
"...proposed a bill that would make it a federal felony to use blogs, text messages, and Internet messaging (”electronic means”) to harass someone and cause them “emotional distress.”
What about the Congressional Record?
Which
High taxes, which would piss off voters, but give them a choice in what to buy, or tell the manufacturers what to build, limiting choice.
I'd vote for the taxes ... and side benefit would be funds for road repairs
How Will Obama and Detroit Get Americans to Buy Hybrid Vehicles? - WSJ.com:
"U.S. car makers have lobbied for higher gas taxes as the simplest way to push consumers into high-mileage cars. The Obama administration is betting on a different approach: Leave gas taxes alone, and instead invest government money in advanced battery development, offer tax breaks of up to $7,500 on hybrids and mandate tougher mileage standards to force car makers to use new fuel-saving technology. Washington now has a big financial stake in getting this right, or billions in public money plowed into Chrysler and GM could be vulnerable to energy markets."
I'd vote for the taxes ... and side benefit would be funds for road repairs
How Will Obama and Detroit Get Americans to Buy Hybrid Vehicles? - WSJ.com:
"U.S. car makers have lobbied for higher gas taxes as the simplest way to push consumers into high-mileage cars. The Obama administration is betting on a different approach: Leave gas taxes alone, and instead invest government money in advanced battery development, offer tax breaks of up to $7,500 on hybrids and mandate tougher mileage standards to force car makers to use new fuel-saving technology. Washington now has a big financial stake in getting this right, or billions in public money plowed into Chrysler and GM could be vulnerable to energy markets."
Healthy ?
What's Really in Many 'Healthy' Foods - WSJ.com
How misleading labeling may help sell ordinary products as "healthy"
Such as "wheat bread" ... like, most bread (other than spelt) is made of wheat.
Whole Wheat would be much much better as it should contain the bran and germ.
How misleading labeling may help sell ordinary products as "healthy"
Such as "wheat bread" ... like, most bread (other than spelt) is made of wheat.
Whole Wheat would be much much better as it should contain the bran and germ.
never heard of photoshop
Aide Quits Over New York Flyover - WSJ.com: "WASHINGTON -- The White House official responsible for the Air Force One flight over New York City that caused panic around the site of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks resigned Friday, as an internal review identified numerous miscues surrounding the incident.
In a resignation letter submitted to President Barack Obama on Friday, White House Military Office Director Louis Caldera said the controversy over the April 27 photo-op has made it impossible for him to lead effectively and 'has become a distraction to the important work you are doing as president.'"
In a resignation letter submitted to President Barack Obama on Friday, White House Military Office Director Louis Caldera said the controversy over the April 27 photo-op has made it impossible for him to lead effectively and 'has become a distraction to the important work you are doing as president.'"
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Tax "Havens"
There seems to be a need for deeper thinking
Corporations are non-national or global.
I dislike the wiff of protectionism
Ross: Obama's Tax Changes Are a 'Huge Mistake' - General * Asia * News * Story - CNBC.com:
"'The part that's more complicated is about the corporations. And it almost sounded as though he was intending to be punitive on corporations that had extensive overseas operations. To the degree that that's true I think it would be a huge mistake, because one of the reasons that many of the U.S. corporations are prospering is in fact their participation in the more rapidly growing markets overseas. And I think that's a very dangerous slope,' Ross said."
Corporations are non-national or global.
I dislike the wiff of protectionism
Ross: Obama's Tax Changes Are a 'Huge Mistake' - General * Asia * News * Story - CNBC.com:
"'The part that's more complicated is about the corporations. And it almost sounded as though he was intending to be punitive on corporations that had extensive overseas operations. To the degree that that's true I think it would be a huge mistake, because one of the reasons that many of the U.S. corporations are prospering is in fact their participation in the more rapidly growing markets overseas. And I think that's a very dangerous slope,' Ross said."
Sunday, May 03, 2009
Beg to differ cont ...
Late last year, Toyota halts work for new 1.3 Billion Prius Plant for Mississippi
Prius or Pickups? | Car News Blog at Motor Trend:
"The Prius problem highlights the major challenge facing any bailout of the Detroit Three. If Toyota allegedly the smartest guys in the room when it comes to the auto biz can t figure out what American consumers want one month to the next as of a few months back the Tupelo plant was actually slated to build Highlander SUVs how on earth is Capitol Hill or any so-called 'car czar' for that matter going to be able to figure out which direction Detroit s salvation lies Building Prius clones Or pickups Which will give us the best chance of getting our loan money paid back"
Prius or Pickups? | Car News Blog at Motor Trend:
"The Prius problem highlights the major challenge facing any bailout of the Detroit Three. If Toyota allegedly the smartest guys in the room when it comes to the auto biz can t figure out what American consumers want one month to the next as of a few months back the Tupelo plant was actually slated to build Highlander SUVs how on earth is Capitol Hill or any so-called 'car czar' for that matter going to be able to figure out which direction Detroit s salvation lies Building Prius clones Or pickups Which will give us the best chance of getting our loan money paid back"
Beg to differ
True statement " I'm not an auto engineer" ... and it shows
Obama 100 Days Press Conference: FULL TRANSCRIPT:
"OBAMA: I don't think that we should micromanage, but I think that, like any investor, the American taxpayer has the right to scrutinize what's being proposed and make sure that their money is not just being thrown down the drain.
And so, you know, we've got to strike a balance. I don't want to be -- I'm not an auto engineer. I don't know how to create an affordable, well-designed plug-in hybrid. But I know that, if the Japanese can design an affordable, well-designed hybrid, then, doggone it, the American people should be able to do the same.
So my job is to ask the auto industry: Why is it you guys can't do this? And, in some cases, they're starting to do it, but they've got these legacy costs. You know, there are some terrific U.S. cars being made, both by Chrysler and G.M.
The question is, you know, give me a plan so that you're building off your strengths and you're projecting out to where that market is going to be. I actually think, if you look at the trends, that those auto companies that emerge from this crisis, when you start seeing the pent-up demand for autos coming back, they're going to be in a position to really do well, globally, not just here in the United States."
I'm assuming that the President is referring to the Prius, a questionable data point.
Word is that Toyota looses money on the Prius, while it makes money on ... Pick Up Trucks.
I've posted this before:
18 Is Enough — Sightline Daily - Northwest News that Matters:
How SUVs Can Save the Climate — Sightline Daily - Northwest News that Matters
"You save more fuel switching from a 15 to 18 mpg car than switching from a 50 to 100 mpg car."
So skip any focus on "small cars"
Sure, they make a visual statement, but the numbers are not important with them.
Best would be to look at hybrid technology applied to larger platforms, matter of fact to platforms that Americans buy ... SUV's and the like.
Matter of fact, Detroit is addressing this market:
Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid Named 2008 Green Car of the Year | GreenCar.com
More :
GM | Hybrid Cars, SUVs & Trucks - Hybrid Technology
But maybe this is all more about style than substance
Obama 100 Days Press Conference: FULL TRANSCRIPT:
"OBAMA: I don't think that we should micromanage, but I think that, like any investor, the American taxpayer has the right to scrutinize what's being proposed and make sure that their money is not just being thrown down the drain.
And so, you know, we've got to strike a balance. I don't want to be -- I'm not an auto engineer. I don't know how to create an affordable, well-designed plug-in hybrid. But I know that, if the Japanese can design an affordable, well-designed hybrid, then, doggone it, the American people should be able to do the same.
So my job is to ask the auto industry: Why is it you guys can't do this? And, in some cases, they're starting to do it, but they've got these legacy costs. You know, there are some terrific U.S. cars being made, both by Chrysler and G.M.
The question is, you know, give me a plan so that you're building off your strengths and you're projecting out to where that market is going to be. I actually think, if you look at the trends, that those auto companies that emerge from this crisis, when you start seeing the pent-up demand for autos coming back, they're going to be in a position to really do well, globally, not just here in the United States."
I'm assuming that the President is referring to the Prius, a questionable data point.
Word is that Toyota looses money on the Prius, while it makes money on ... Pick Up Trucks.
I've posted this before:
18 Is Enough — Sightline Daily - Northwest News that Matters:
How SUVs Can Save the Climate — Sightline Daily - Northwest News that Matters
"You save more fuel switching from a 15 to 18 mpg car than switching from a 50 to 100 mpg car."
So skip any focus on "small cars"
Sure, they make a visual statement, but the numbers are not important with them.
Best would be to look at hybrid technology applied to larger platforms, matter of fact to platforms that Americans buy ... SUV's and the like.
Matter of fact, Detroit is addressing this market:
Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid Named 2008 Green Car of the Year | GreenCar.com
More :
GM | Hybrid Cars, SUVs & Trucks - Hybrid Technology
But maybe this is all more about style than substance
Saturday, May 02, 2009
Good to have an "outside day"Tromped the woods a bit
Hauled out the saws, felled a few dead pines
Ongoing process of thinning the stand of "standing dead" ... any without living tops. Often the skinniest in the stand.
First, the beetles that likely killed them don't like them on the ground, second, return their nutrients to the soil.
Later, gathered up some wild leeks for Sunday breakfast.
They seem to still be on the small side.
BS Rules (or sells papers)
Only a few days ago, there were calls to close the border, Biden "stuck his foot through the back of his head" in telling the Today Show, that he advises his family to stay off planes because of the risk ...
Now
Outbreak in Mexico May Be Smaller Than Feared - NYTimes.com:
"The World Health Organization announced on Saturday an increase in the number of confirmed cases of swine flu, although tests now indicate that the outbreak in Mexico may turn out to be far smaller than originally feared."
Times picks up on it too ...
Blaming ‘Media Hype’ for Swine Flu Fears - The Lede Blog - NYTimes.com
Now
Outbreak in Mexico May Be Smaller Than Feared - NYTimes.com:
"The World Health Organization announced on Saturday an increase in the number of confirmed cases of swine flu, although tests now indicate that the outbreak in Mexico may turn out to be far smaller than originally feared."
Times picks up on it too ...
Blaming ‘Media Hype’ for Swine Flu Fears - The Lede Blog - NYTimes.com
Friday, May 01, 2009
Done
Cherry Blossoms
The Official Site of 1,000 Places To See Before You Die
Note that we get a few in Leelanau too
The Official Site of 1,000 Places To See Before You Die
Note that we get a few in Leelanau too
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Quote of the month
So so true ... although I attribute my dysfunction to being a quasi-polymath.
Doc Searls Weblog : New Innerface:
"I’m also more distractable than a kitten. That’s good for blogging and tweeting, bad for book-writing."
Doc Searls Weblog : New Innerface:
"I’m also more distractable than a kitten. That’s good for blogging and tweeting, bad for book-writing."
UAW vs Teachers Union?
Part of the problem
"NEW YORK - (Business Wire) As of last night’s deadline, we were part of a group of approximately 20 relatively small organizations; we represent many of the country’s teachers unions, major pension and retirement plans and school endowments who have invested through us in senior secured loans to Chrysler. Combined, these loans total about $1 billion. None of us have taken a dime in TARP money."
Monday, April 27, 2009
Likely a good read
If I have time ...
Coloring the thinking leading into WWII and management of the world afterwords.
Britain between the wars | A sense of dread | The Economist: "The period between the two world wars was a time of anxiety and foreboding. Much like our own age—only more so"
"During this period something strange happened. After the horrors of the first world war, many people were convinced that another global conflict would unleash forces of barbarism that decaying liberalism would be powerless to resist and that the inevitable result would be the dawning of a new dark age.
Coloring the thinking leading into WWII and management of the world afterwords.
Britain between the wars | A sense of dread | The Economist: "The period between the two world wars was a time of anxiety and foreboding. Much like our own age—only more so"
"During this period something strange happened. After the horrors of the first world war, many people were convinced that another global conflict would unleash forces of barbarism that decaying liberalism would be powerless to resist and that the inevitable result would be the dawning of a new dark age.
But as the prospect of war drew closer, pessimism and defeatism were replaced with a grim determination to confront the manifest evil of Nazism. In the three years between the crises in Spain and central Europe, Mr Overy writes, “the balance between saving civilisation through peace and saving civilisation by war swung decisively in favour of the latter.” When war eventually came, it was for many people almost a relief—a climax in the patient’s condition after which would come either death or recovery.
“The Morbid Age” is history at its best. It tells us not just what people did, but what were the social and intellectual influences that caused them to do what they did. With elegance and erudition, Mr Overy opens a window into the mind of a generation—a generation with anxieties both very different from and yet surprisingly similar to those of our own today."
Nationalization
Federal Government to own more than 50%
Hope Congress doesn't start deciding models to make, plants to keep/close.
"By exchanging stock for its bonds and by converting its debt to the Treasury Department and to a retiree health care fund for the United Automobile Workers union, G.M. said it can eliminate $44 billion in debt. The Treasury and the U.A.W. would own up to 89 percent of the company’s outstanding shares, while bondholders would hold no more than 10 percent and current shareholders would hold 1 percent."
Third Party Talks
Most of the news about Detroit has been about the UAW and the bondholders, but the dealers are an issue too.
"The administration's auto task force has been considering indirect ways of helping dealers, such as measures that would allow GM and Chrysler to once again offer leases on new vehicles, something they stopped doing last summer, people familiar with the matter said. They are also looking at how the auto makers can trim dealer networks."
100 days and things start to change
Likely not the last change in plans
"The United States and Iraq will begin negotiating possible exceptions to the June 30 deadline for withdrawing American combat troops from Iraqi cities, focusing on the troubled northern city of Mosul, according to military officials. Some parts of Baghdad also will still have combat troops."
Sunday, April 26, 2009
One of Detroit's problems
Much has been said about Problems for GM with UAW and Bondholders
But dealer contracts are another issue, and likely cause for going the bankruptcy route.
Pontiac Headed for Junk Yard - WSJ.com:
"GM's last automotive division to be eliminated was Oldsmobile in 2000. That decision cost GM billions of dollars in dealer-buyout costs, led to messy litigation and frayed many relationships with dealers and buyers."
But dealer contracts are another issue, and likely cause for going the bankruptcy route.
Pontiac Headed for Junk Yard - WSJ.com:
"GM's last automotive division to be eliminated was Oldsmobile in 2000. That decision cost GM billions of dollars in dealer-buyout costs, led to messy litigation and frayed many relationships with dealers and buyers."
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Zing
Christopher takes on Evangelicals
Hitchens: Why Texas Is Right on Teaching Evolution | Newsweek Culture | Newsweek.com:
"So by all means let's 'be honest with the kids,' as Dr. Don McLeroy, the chairman of the Texas education board, wants us to be. The problem is that he is urging that the argument be taught, not in a history or in a civics class, but in a biology class. And one of his supporters on the board, Ken Mercer, has said that evolution is disproved by the absence of any transitional forms between dogs and cats. If any state in the American union gave equal time in science class to such claims, it would certainly make itself unique in the world (perhaps no shame in that). But it would also set a precedent for the sharing of the astronomy period with the teaching of astrology, or indeed of equal time as between chemistry and alchemy. Less boring perhaps, but also much less scientific and less educational."
Hitchens: Why Texas Is Right on Teaching Evolution | Newsweek Culture | Newsweek.com:
"So by all means let's 'be honest with the kids,' as Dr. Don McLeroy, the chairman of the Texas education board, wants us to be. The problem is that he is urging that the argument be taught, not in a history or in a civics class, but in a biology class. And one of his supporters on the board, Ken Mercer, has said that evolution is disproved by the absence of any transitional forms between dogs and cats. If any state in the American union gave equal time in science class to such claims, it would certainly make itself unique in the world (perhaps no shame in that). But it would also set a precedent for the sharing of the astronomy period with the teaching of astrology, or indeed of equal time as between chemistry and alchemy. Less boring perhaps, but also much less scientific and less educational."
Something to like about Paul Krugman
I too found inspiration in Isaac Asimov's Foundation series, with the model that a society could be modeled and predictions made.
Never about the individual, but large enough groups.
Colored my thinking in college, with studies in Poli-Sci and "Economics"
Attack From the Left: Paul Krugman's Poison Pen | Newsweek Business | Newsweek.com
Krugman says he found himself in the science fiction of Isaac Asimov, especially the "Foundation" series—"It was nerds saving civilization, quants who had a theory of society, people writing equations on a blackboard, saying, 'See, unless you follow this formula, the empire will fail and be followed by a thousand years of barbarism'."
Never about the individual, but large enough groups.
Colored my thinking in college, with studies in Poli-Sci and "Economics"
Attack From the Left: Paul Krugman's Poison Pen | Newsweek Business | Newsweek.com
Krugman says he found himself in the science fiction of Isaac Asimov, especially the "Foundation" series—"It was nerds saving civilization, quants who had a theory of society, people writing equations on a blackboard, saying, 'See, unless you follow this formula, the empire will fail and be followed by a thousand years of barbarism'."
Friday, April 24, 2009
File under What the F?
So we are to suppose that the Executives don't know what they have?
Someone (The Fed) has to tell management about the quality of their balance sheets.
What are these guys hired to do?
Banking Should Be Boring!
"After a two-month wait, the nation’s 19 largest banks will start learning on Friday how they fared in important federal examinations — and which among them will need another bailout from the government or private investors."
Felix Roatyn, who helped bail out NYCity in the '70's :
"Well, the answer is, I don't know. And I won't know until it's over, because so many things can happen. Now we -- because it is a political issue, we are looking for very -- we're not looking for, but we're going through very complicated structures. And I've always been convinced that, in finances and most everything else, every level of complication adds three or four levels of difficulty and the likelihood of failure. - CNN GPS a couple of weeks ago
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Whoops
Even if it contains a grain of truth, sometimes it's best not to say it at a press affair ...
One factor through Chinese history has been risk of unrest.
"It’s not unusual for actors to stumble when they talk about politics, but Jackie Chan, below, has struck a nerve on a particularly divisive issue. In the southern Chinese province of Hainan on Saturday Mr. Chan, the action star, told a group of business leaders, “I’m not sure if it’s good to have freedom or not,” The Associated Press reported. He also said: “I’m gradually beginning to feel that we Chinese need to be controlled. If we’re not being controlled, we’ll just do what we want.”"
Last Snow?
This afternoon, along M-72
Maybe we get some more, but most likely just dusting
Woods, a little snow, then hay and corn
Maybe we get some more, but most likely just dusting
Woods, a little snow, then hay and corn
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Cherry Blossom time
Back from Nihon (Japan) and headed home shortly
We'll get our own cherry blossoms soon
Following gives a small sense of the attitude in Nihon where cherry blossoms are celebrated for beauty and change, not as a crop with future cash.
asahi.com（朝日新聞社）：A cherry tree's personality lies in its trunk - English:
"Spring is the go-between that enables people to meet cherry trees. This year's spring is deepening, never to return."
--The Asahi Shimbun, April 12(IHT/Asahi: April 20,2009)
We'll get our own cherry blossoms soon
Following gives a small sense of the attitude in Nihon where cherry blossoms are celebrated for beauty and change, not as a crop with future cash.
asahi.com（朝日新聞社）：A cherry tree's personality lies in its trunk - English:
"Spring is the go-between that enables people to meet cherry trees. This year's spring is deepening, never to return."
--The Asahi Shimbun, April 12(IHT/Asahi: April 20,2009)
Huh?
Save the Dinosaurs
Ban internet news
Frankly, the only newsprint that comes into our house are with two weeklies, the Leelanau Enterprise and Northern Express
Why in the world would Congress investigate the harvesting of trees for news?
Congress Gets Into the ‘Future of News’ Game - Bits Blog - NYTimes.com: "If you think of Congressional hearings, at least in part, as a highly ritualized form of national cocktail-party conversation, it was inevitable that the spotlight in Washington would turn to the fate of newspapers."
Ban internet news
Frankly, the only newsprint that comes into our house are with two weeklies, the Leelanau Enterprise and Northern Express
Why in the world would Congress investigate the harvesting of trees for news?
Congress Gets Into the ‘Future of News’ Game - Bits Blog - NYTimes.com: "If you think of Congressional hearings, at least in part, as a highly ritualized form of national cocktail-party conversation, it was inevitable that the spotlight in Washington would turn to the fate of newspapers."
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
60 second profile
Glad to have met Stewart, and I follow much of his work
Domains - Stewart Brand - On the Waterfront - Interview - NYTimes.com
Domains - Stewart Brand - On the Waterfront - Interview - NYTimes.com
Monday, April 20, 2009
Friday, April 17, 2009
Some photo's posted
From our visit on a gray drizzly day
Light traffic
Zen - Nanzenji - a set on Flickr
Nanzenji Temple in Kyoto, Japan
"Nanzen-ji (Southern Mountain Temple) is considered the most famous and important Zen temple in the world. Home of the Rinzai sect of Zen Buddhism the temple consists of 12 sub-temples, which only a few are open to the public. Also within the temple grounds are several gardens, of which only three are available to be viewed."
Light traffic
Zen - Nanzenji - a set on Flickr
Nanzenji Temple in Kyoto, Japan
"Nanzen-ji (Southern Mountain Temple) is considered the most famous and important Zen temple in the world. Home of the Rinzai sect of Zen Buddhism the temple consists of 12 sub-temples, which only a few are open to the public. Also within the temple grounds are several gardens, of which only three are available to be viewed."
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Shinkansen
Shinkansen "Super Express" (as opposed to Express) arriving Osaka, which we take to Tokyo, then switch train to Narita
Hey - we made it all the way.
Mostly posted for grandson ...
Hey - we made it all the way.
Mostly posted for grandson ...
Saturday, April 11, 2009
From Japan
I've just learned that it is considered a sign of good fortune to see Mt. Fuji-san on a clear day
Can't get much clearer than this
Can't get much clearer than this
and it continues
Paul Krugman
Good stuff on swings in banking over the last century
I put it in a much shorter post early Feb
Looney Dunes: Banking should be boring
More pain to come?
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
Koi
Imperial Palace East Garden
Koi and Cherry Blossom pedals
Note : uploaded 4/17 but backdated to be approx reset to proper time
Koi and Cherry Blossom pedals
Note : uploaded 4/17 but backdated to be approx reset to proper time
Monday, April 06, 2009
Imagery
Hopefully I got it close with my profile pic.
At least the smile part
Seth's Blog: The power of a tiny picture (how to improve your social network brand):
"The power of a tiny picture (how to improve your social network brand)
If it's important enough for you to spend your time finding and connecting with new people online, it's important enough to get the first impression right."
At least the smile part
Seth's Blog: The power of a tiny picture (how to improve your social network brand):
"The power of a tiny picture (how to improve your social network brand)
If it's important enough for you to spend your time finding and connecting with new people online, it's important enough to get the first impression right."
Thursday, April 02, 2009
Business as usual
Any bets on if it will change?
Editorial - Earmarks of Scandal - NYTimes.com:
"The Justice Department is investigating whether PMA used illegal straw donors to lard the campaign kitties of cooperative lawmakers. The firm — which shut itself down after being raided by federal agents — fed and fed richly off the defense appropriations subcommittee led by Representative John Murtha, the House baron of Pentagon spending."
"Ms. Pelosi cannot ignore this sorry churn of taxpayer money. Newcomers and moderates are right in warning that if the House majority doesn’t police itself, it will lose credibility all the way to the next election."
Editorial - Earmarks of Scandal - NYTimes.com:
"The Justice Department is investigating whether PMA used illegal straw donors to lard the campaign kitties of cooperative lawmakers. The firm — which shut itself down after being raided by federal agents — fed and fed richly off the defense appropriations subcommittee led by Representative John Murtha, the House baron of Pentagon spending."
"Ms. Pelosi cannot ignore this sorry churn of taxpayer money. Newcomers and moderates are right in warning that if the House majority doesn’t police itself, it will lose credibility all the way to the next election."
Government Motors
So Washington is going to solve the auto industry's problems.
How to move the inventory?
Maybe just ban big cars, vans, SUV's ?
But Congress won't move to raise gas taxes, which might influence consumer behavior, maybe help the Highway Trust Fund.
Industry's Big Hope for Small Cars Fades - WSJ.com:
"Practically every small car in the market is stacked up at dealerships. At the end of February, Honda Motor Co. had 22,191 Fits on dealer lots -- enough to last 125 days at the current sales rate, according to Autodata Corp. In July, it had a nine-day supply, while the industry generally considers a 55- to 60-day supply healthy.
For other models the supply situation is even worse. Toyota Motor Corp. has enough Yaris subcompacts to last 175 days. Chrysler LLC has a 205-day supply of the Dodge Caliber. And Chevrolet dealers have 427 days' worth of Aveo subcompacts. At the current sales rate, General Motors Corp. could stop making the Aveo and it wouldn't run out until May 24, 2010.
'I don't think Americans really like small cars,' said Beau Boeckmann, whose family's Galpin Ford in southern California is the country's largest Ford dealer. 'They drive them when they think they have to, when gas prices are high. But we're big people and we like big cars.'
The logjam of small cars is caused in part by the recession, which has sapped sales of all types of vehicles. But it also underscores how badly gasoline prices have whipsawed the industry. A year ago, car companies rushed to react when Americans practically stopped buying large vehicles and flocked to hybrids and small cars."
How to move the inventory?
Maybe just ban big cars, vans, SUV's ?
But Congress won't move to raise gas taxes, which might influence consumer behavior, maybe help the Highway Trust Fund.
Industry's Big Hope for Small Cars Fades - WSJ.com:
"Practically every small car in the market is stacked up at dealerships. At the end of February, Honda Motor Co. had 22,191 Fits on dealer lots -- enough to last 125 days at the current sales rate, according to Autodata Corp. In July, it had a nine-day supply, while the industry generally considers a 55- to 60-day supply healthy.
For other models the supply situation is even worse. Toyota Motor Corp. has enough Yaris subcompacts to last 175 days. Chrysler LLC has a 205-day supply of the Dodge Caliber. And Chevrolet dealers have 427 days' worth of Aveo subcompacts. At the current sales rate, General Motors Corp. could stop making the Aveo and it wouldn't run out until May 24, 2010.
'I don't think Americans really like small cars,' said Beau Boeckmann, whose family's Galpin Ford in southern California is the country's largest Ford dealer. 'They drive them when they think they have to, when gas prices are high. But we're big people and we like big cars.'
The logjam of small cars is caused in part by the recession, which has sapped sales of all types of vehicles. But it also underscores how badly gasoline prices have whipsawed the industry. A year ago, car companies rushed to react when Americans practically stopped buying large vehicles and flocked to hybrids and small cars."
Monday, March 30, 2009
About Weirdness
Caught on radio
Most interesting
Living on Earth: Alien Life on Earth
"Strange life forms don't have to be the domain of distant planets and old Star Trek episodes. Astro-biologist Paul Davies says life as we don't know it might already exist in our own backyard. Davies talks with host Bruce Gellerman about the possibility of life on Earth evolving more than once, and about why scientists should launch a "mission to Earth" to find alien life."
Most interesting
Living on Earth: Alien Life on Earth
"Strange life forms don't have to be the domain of distant planets and old Star Trek episodes. Astro-biologist Paul Davies says life as we don't know it might already exist in our own backyard. Davies talks with host Bruce Gellerman about the possibility of life on Earth evolving more than once, and about why scientists should launch a "mission to Earth" to find alien life."
Friday, March 27, 2009
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
More on news vs newspapers
Following this
Looney Dunes: Good read on change in news
Clay Shirky tackles the issue, with some more looking back (to Gutenberg):
Newspapers and Thinking the Unthinkable
Looney Dunes: Good read on change in news
Clay Shirky tackles the issue, with some more looking back (to Gutenberg):
Newspapers and Thinking the Unthinkable
Response to the witch-hunt
One senior AIG exec's response to Congress and NY and CT AG's attacks
Op-Ed Contributor - Dear A.I.G., I Quit! - NYTimes.com
"So what am I to do? There’s no easy answer. I know that because of hard work I have benefited more than most during the economic boom and have saved enough that my family is unlikely to suffer devastating losses during the current bust. Some might argue that members of my profession have been overpaid, and I wouldn’t disagree.
That is why I have decided to donate 100 percent of the effective after-tax proceeds of my retention payment directly to organizations that are helping people who are suffering from the global downturn. This is not a tax-deduction gimmick; I simply believe that I at least deserve to dictate how my earnings are spent, and do not want to see them disappear back into the obscurity of A.I.G.’s or the federal government’s budget. Our earnings have caused such a distraction for so many from the more pressing issues our country faces, and I would like to see my share of it benefit those truly in need."
Op-Ed Contributor - Dear A.I.G., I Quit! - NYTimes.com
"So what am I to do? There’s no easy answer. I know that because of hard work I have benefited more than most during the economic boom and have saved enough that my family is unlikely to suffer devastating losses during the current bust. Some might argue that members of my profession have been overpaid, and I wouldn’t disagree.
That is why I have decided to donate 100 percent of the effective after-tax proceeds of my retention payment directly to organizations that are helping people who are suffering from the global downturn. This is not a tax-deduction gimmick; I simply believe that I at least deserve to dictate how my earnings are spent, and do not want to see them disappear back into the obscurity of A.I.G.’s or the federal government’s budget. Our earnings have caused such a distraction for so many from the more pressing issues our country faces, and I would like to see my share of it benefit those truly in need."
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
View that there is a fight brewing
Exxon vs. the Obama Administration - Portfolio.com:
"The biggest oil company in the world is also the most resistant to the shift to green energy. The White House seems determined to make Exxon Mobil’s life miserable."
"The biggest oil company in the world is also the most resistant to the shift to green energy. The White House seems determined to make Exxon Mobil’s life miserable."
Party Boy Prognosticator
Profile of NYU Economist Roubini - Portfolio.com:
"Life is good for New York University’s party-boy economist. Once regarded as a crank, he has parlayed his now-accurate predictions of an economic bust into fame, rising fortune, and a vigorous social life. But is the recession’s “Doctor Doom” just a one-hit wonder?"
"Life is good for New York University’s party-boy economist. Once regarded as a crank, he has parlayed his now-accurate predictions of an economic bust into fame, rising fortune, and a vigorous social life. But is the recession’s “Doctor Doom” just a one-hit wonder?"
Next?
When rates are low, the only thing that can happen may be ... bad
The Way We Live Now - No Safety in Numbers - Are Treasury Bonds a Bubble That May Someday Burst? - NYTimes.com:
"Warren Buffett wrote: “When the financial history of this decade is written, it will surely speak of the Internet bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the early 2000s. But the U.S. Treasury bond bubble of late 2008 may be regarded as almost equally extraordinary.”"
Rates could go up ... and therefore bonds would go down.
The Way We Live Now - No Safety in Numbers - Are Treasury Bonds a Bubble That May Someday Burst? - NYTimes.com:
"Warren Buffett wrote: “When the financial history of this decade is written, it will surely speak of the Internet bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the early 2000s. But the U.S. Treasury bond bubble of late 2008 may be regarded as almost equally extraordinary.”"
Rates could go up ... and therefore bonds would go down.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Volcano watch
May portend cooler spring
The Associated Press: Alaska volcano Mount Redoubt erupts 3 times
Geologists at the Alaska Volcano Observatory say the volcano erupted three times late Sunday and early Monday, with the largest eruption sending a plume of smoke some 50,000 feet above sea level.
Tracking here :
Alaska Volcano Observatory - Activity
The Associated Press: Alaska volcano Mount Redoubt erupts 3 times
Geologists at the Alaska Volcano Observatory say the volcano erupted three times late Sunday and early Monday, with the largest eruption sending a plume of smoke some 50,000 feet above sea level.
Tracking here :
Alaska Volcano Observatory - Activity
Sunday, March 22, 2009
File under Duh
"Systems" work until they don't
Physicists Try to Predict Economy - Portfolio.com
"Consider financial derivatives, for example. It’s taken for granted by economists that derivatives make markets more stable. They are designed to give market participants more flexibility by allowing them to take highly specific market positions. But some economists—notably William Brock of the University of Wisconsin and colleagues—have suggested that this view may be backward. They are exploring the consequences of adding one rather obvious fact to standard economic models: that people learn as they participate in markets and may quickly copy other investment strategies if they seem to be working. The result is a pile-on that makes the initial strategy ineffective. Brock’s results show that such adaptive learning leads to derivatives actually destabilizing markets."
Physicists Try to Predict Economy - Portfolio.com
"Consider financial derivatives, for example. It’s taken for granted by economists that derivatives make markets more stable. They are designed to give market participants more flexibility by allowing them to take highly specific market positions. But some economists—notably William Brock of the University of Wisconsin and colleagues—have suggested that this view may be backward. They are exploring the consequences of adding one rather obvious fact to standard economic models: that people learn as they participate in markets and may quickly copy other investment strategies if they seem to be working. The result is a pile-on that makes the initial strategy ineffective. Brock’s results show that such adaptive learning leads to derivatives actually destabilizing markets."
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Good read on change in news
With mainstream print newspapers dropping fast, the following is interesting.
stevenberlinjohnson.com: Old Growth Media And The Future Of News
Morphing to a distributed system, as opposed to monopolies.
Here is one place I think that Warren Buffett's model of investing in papers may break down, unless they can move to the web and retain their brands
stevenberlinjohnson.com: Old Growth Media And The Future Of News
Morphing to a distributed system, as opposed to monopolies.
Here is one place I think that Warren Buffett's model of investing in papers may break down, unless they can move to the web and retain their brands
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Been there Done that
Traverse City Record-Eagle - Article: Flu, other bugs slam area: "Noroviruses have been prevalent this winter, including rapidly onset symptoms such as nausea, vomiting and diarrhea"
Monday, March 16, 2009
If it sounds too good to be true ...
Can losers sue to recover from they're own errors?
If so, where can I get some too.
Further, with the Made-off affair, how much of the multi-billion of losses was loss of phantom gains?
Talking Business - Investors Were Victims of Madoff, and of Their Own Folly - NYTimes.com:
"And yet, just about anybody who actually took the time to kick the tires of Mr. Madoff’s operation tended to run in the other direction. James R. Hedges IV, who runs an advisory firm called LJH Global Investments, says that in 1997 he spent two hours asking Mr. Madoff basic questions about his operation. “The explanation of his strategy, the consistency of his returns, the way he withheld information — it was a very clear set of warning signs,” said Mr. Hedges. When you look at the list of Madoff victims, it contains a lot of high-profile names — but almost no serious institutional investors or endowments. They insist on knowing the kind of information Mr. Madoff refused to supply.
I suppose you could argue that most of Mr. Madoff’s direct investors lacked the ability or the financial sophistication of someone like Mr. Hedges. But it shouldn’t have mattered. Isn’t the first lesson of personal finance that you should never put all your money with one person or one fund? Even if you think your money manager is “God”? Diversification has many virtues; one of them is that you won’t lose everything if one of your money managers turns out to be a crook."
If so, where can I get some too.
Further, with the Made-off affair, how much of the multi-billion of losses was loss of phantom gains?
Talking Business - Investors Were Victims of Madoff, and of Their Own Folly - NYTimes.com:
"And yet, just about anybody who actually took the time to kick the tires of Mr. Madoff’s operation tended to run in the other direction. James R. Hedges IV, who runs an advisory firm called LJH Global Investments, says that in 1997 he spent two hours asking Mr. Madoff basic questions about his operation. “The explanation of his strategy, the consistency of his returns, the way he withheld information — it was a very clear set of warning signs,” said Mr. Hedges. When you look at the list of Madoff victims, it contains a lot of high-profile names — but almost no serious institutional investors or endowments. They insist on knowing the kind of information Mr. Madoff refused to supply.
I suppose you could argue that most of Mr. Madoff’s direct investors lacked the ability or the financial sophistication of someone like Mr. Hedges. But it shouldn’t have mattered. Isn’t the first lesson of personal finance that you should never put all your money with one person or one fund? Even if you think your money manager is “God”? Diversification has many virtues; one of them is that you won’t lose everything if one of your money managers turns out to be a crook."
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Such a fickle public
How quickly impressions change, or the new wears off.
But I suspect that if the economy improves, the ratings will too.
And I'd note that comments on the financial markets have gone from "don't pay attention to tracking polls", to "things are looking up."
Obama's Poll Numbers Are Falling to Earth - WSJ.com:
"Polling data show that Mr. Obama's approval rating is dropping and is below where George W. Bush was in an analogous period in 2001. Rasmussen Reports data shows that Mr. Obama's net presidential approval rating -- which is calculated by subtracting the number who strongly disapprove from the number who strongly approve -- is just six, his lowest rating to date.
Overall, Rasmussen Reports shows a 56%-43% approval, with a third strongly disapproving of the president's performance. This is a substantial degree of polarization so early in the administration. Mr. Obama has lost virtually all of his Republican support and a good part of his Independent support, and the trend is decidedly negative.
But I suspect that if the economy improves, the ratings will too.
And I'd note that comments on the financial markets have gone from "don't pay attention to tracking polls", to "things are looking up."
Obama's Poll Numbers Are Falling to Earth - WSJ.com:
"Polling data show that Mr. Obama's approval rating is dropping and is below where George W. Bush was in an analogous period in 2001. Rasmussen Reports data shows that Mr. Obama's net presidential approval rating -- which is calculated by subtracting the number who strongly disapprove from the number who strongly approve -- is just six, his lowest rating to date.
Overall, Rasmussen Reports shows a 56%-43% approval, with a third strongly disapproving of the president's performance. This is a substantial degree of polarization so early in the administration. Mr. Obama has lost virtually all of his Republican support and a good part of his Independent support, and the trend is decidedly negative.
A detailed examination of presidential popularity after 50 days on the job similarly demonstrates a substantial drop in presidential approval relative to other elected presidents in the 20th and 21st centuries. The reason for this decline most likely has to do with doubts about the administration's policies and their impact on peoples' lives."
Mr. Schoen, formerly a pollster for President Bill Clinton...
Persepective on how to Manage
Self-explanatory
Preoccupations - For a Chef, a Comfort Zone Among the Pots and Pans - NYTimes.com:
"Given our schedules, it’s hard for executive chefs to be in the kitchen as often as we’d like, but I believe that my team performs better when they see me down in the trenches with them, appreciating the little things. It’s also where I’m happiest.
On my walk-throughs I mostly catch employees doing things right. But I also immediately notice when a sauce, for example, is wrong: too salty, too dark, too red, too loose. When that happens, the cook and I together will go back to the recipe to figure out what went awry, and I’ll give pointers on how to fix it. Mistakes don’t make me happy, but they happen all the time, and I see them as excellent opportunities to teach. Nobody wants to stagnate in their job; they want to master new techniques. My job is to continually help them grow."
Preoccupations - For a Chef, a Comfort Zone Among the Pots and Pans - NYTimes.com:
"Given our schedules, it’s hard for executive chefs to be in the kitchen as often as we’d like, but I believe that my team performs better when they see me down in the trenches with them, appreciating the little things. It’s also where I’m happiest.
On my walk-throughs I mostly catch employees doing things right. But I also immediately notice when a sauce, for example, is wrong: too salty, too dark, too red, too loose. When that happens, the cook and I together will go back to the recipe to figure out what went awry, and I’ll give pointers on how to fix it. Mistakes don’t make me happy, but they happen all the time, and I see them as excellent opportunities to teach. Nobody wants to stagnate in their job; they want to master new techniques. My job is to continually help them grow."
Where's Alistare Cooke?
The end of TV as it once was.
Well, the end likely happened years ago with the passing of such gentlemen as Alistare Cooke of PBS's Masterpiece Theater, but folks - it's a Damn TV Show.
3 Arrests in Melee at ‘America’s Next Top Model’ Casting Call - NYTimes.com:
"It was America’s next top melee.
Getting ready from Howard Beale (Network: the movie)
An open casting call for the reality television program “America’s Next Top Model” turned into mayhem on Saturday afternoon in Midtown Manhattan. Fights broke out, three people were arrested and at least six others suffered minor injuries after they were pushed down in a crush of thousands of aspiring models waiting in line to be discovered."
Well, the end likely happened years ago with the passing of such gentlemen as Alistare Cooke of PBS's Masterpiece Theater, but folks - it's a Damn TV Show.
3 Arrests in Melee at ‘America’s Next Top Model’ Casting Call - NYTimes.com:
"It was America’s next top melee.
Getting ready from Howard Beale (Network: the movie)
An open casting call for the reality television program “America’s Next Top Model” turned into mayhem on Saturday afternoon in Midtown Manhattan. Fights broke out, three people were arrested and at least six others suffered minor injuries after they were pushed down in a crush of thousands of aspiring models waiting in line to be discovered."
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Smackdown ?
Nah
It's all about advertising anyway
For Comedy channel, CNBC ... and NYTimes
Anyone who follows Cramer for deep insight is making a mistake
I'll listen from time to time for tidbits, but not deep thinking.
And for Stewart's idea that cable news/financial channels should be gatekeepers of veracity and insight ... ah well.
I guess it patterns to the idea that so many get their "news" from John Stewart !
The TV Watch - High Noon on the Set - Jim Cramer vs. Jon Stewart - NYTimes.com:
"Part of Mr. Stewart’s frustration may stem from the fact that while he clearly won the debate, Mr. Cramer and CNBC stood to profit from the encounter. In today’s television news market, that cable network and its stars are like the financiers they cover: media short-sellers trading shamelessly on publicity, good or bad, so long as it drives up ratings. There isn’t enough regulation on Wall Street, and there’s hardly any accountability on cable news: it’s a 24-hour star system in which opinions — and showmanship — matter more than facts."
Addemdum - George Will on ABC with George Stephanoplis: "you don't take financial advice from someone who's yelling..."
It's all about advertising anyway
For Comedy channel, CNBC ... and NYTimes
Anyone who follows Cramer for deep insight is making a mistake
I'll listen from time to time for tidbits, but not deep thinking.
And for Stewart's idea that cable news/financial channels should be gatekeepers of veracity and insight ... ah well.
I guess it patterns to the idea that so many get their "news" from John Stewart !
The TV Watch - High Noon on the Set - Jim Cramer vs. Jon Stewart - NYTimes.com:
"Part of Mr. Stewart’s frustration may stem from the fact that while he clearly won the debate, Mr. Cramer and CNBC stood to profit from the encounter. In today’s television news market, that cable network and its stars are like the financiers they cover: media short-sellers trading shamelessly on publicity, good or bad, so long as it drives up ratings. There isn’t enough regulation on Wall Street, and there’s hardly any accountability on cable news: it’s a 24-hour star system in which opinions — and showmanship — matter more than facts."
Addemdum - George Will on ABC with George Stephanoplis: "you don't take financial advice from someone who's yelling..."
Friday, March 13, 2009
Rocket Science is OK on The Street
As long as you don't treat them like religon.
They are just models, not facts.
The flaw is in drinking the kool-aid and then leveraging up on the ideas.
They Tried to Outsmart Wall Street - NYTimes.com:
"As Dr. Derman put it in his book “My Life as a Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance,” “In physics there may one day be a Theory of Everything; in finance and the social sciences, you’re lucky if there is a useable theory of anything.”
Asked to compare her work to physics, one quant, who requested anonymity because her company had not given her permission to talk to reporters, termed the market “a wild beast” that cannot be controlled, and then added: “It’s not like building a bridge. If you’re right more than half the time you’re winning the game.”"
They are just models, not facts.
The flaw is in drinking the kool-aid and then leveraging up on the ideas.
They Tried to Outsmart Wall Street - NYTimes.com:
"As Dr. Derman put it in his book “My Life as a Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance,” “In physics there may one day be a Theory of Everything; in finance and the social sciences, you’re lucky if there is a useable theory of anything.”
Asked to compare her work to physics, one quant, who requested anonymity because her company had not given her permission to talk to reporters, termed the market “a wild beast” that cannot be controlled, and then added: “It’s not like building a bridge. If you’re right more than half the time you’re winning the game.”"
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Do you Trust Bankers ?
Let's make that, Do you trust big bankers
Donny Deutsch takes apart Ken Lewis of Bank of America for outrageous claims on advertising and promotion. About 3 min in.
Lewis apparently claims 10:1 payback for sports marketing.
Donny says it's unprovable
Donny Deutsch takes apart Ken Lewis of Bank of America for outrageous claims on advertising and promotion. About 3 min in.
Lewis apparently claims 10:1 payback for sports marketing.
Donny says it's unprovable
Monday, March 09, 2009
Banking should be boring
Much more eloquent than me
In Business, Simplicity Is Golden - Forbes.com:
If it doesn't make sense, maybe it simply doesn't make sense...
In Business, Simplicity Is Golden - Forbes.com:
If it doesn't make sense, maybe it simply doesn't make sense...
Sunday, March 08, 2009
Third time the charm?
Piece from 2005 on Duh Donald.
We'll likely watch the make believe "Celebrity Apprentice" just to poke fun at the "host"
Will this recession be another series of failures for his "empire"
What's He Really Worth? - New York Times:
"By 1993, with his casinos in hock, most of his real estate holdings either forfeited or stagnant and his father slipping into the fog of Alzheimer's disease, Donald Trump, at the age of 47, had run out of money. There were no funds left to keep him aloft, and as the bare-bones operation he maintained in Manhattan started to grind to a halt, he ordered Nick Ribis, the Trump Organization's president, to call his siblings and ask for a handout from their trusts. Donald needed about $10 million for his living and office expenses, but he had no collateral to provide his brother and sisters, all three of whom wanted a guarantee that he would repay them.
The Trump children's anticipated share of their father's fortune amounted to about $35 million each, and Donald's siblings demanded that he sign a promissory note pledging future distributions from his trust fund against the $10 million he wanted to borrow."
We'll likely watch the make believe "Celebrity Apprentice" just to poke fun at the "host"
Will this recession be another series of failures for his "empire"
What's He Really Worth? - New York Times:
"By 1993, with his casinos in hock, most of his real estate holdings either forfeited or stagnant and his father slipping into the fog of Alzheimer's disease, Donald Trump, at the age of 47, had run out of money. There were no funds left to keep him aloft, and as the bare-bones operation he maintained in Manhattan started to grind to a halt, he ordered Nick Ribis, the Trump Organization's president, to call his siblings and ask for a handout from their trusts. Donald needed about $10 million for his living and office expenses, but he had no collateral to provide his brother and sisters, all three of whom wanted a guarantee that he would repay them.
The Trump children's anticipated share of their father's fortune amounted to about $35 million each, and Donald's siblings demanded that he sign a promissory note pledging future distributions from his trust fund against the $10 million he wanted to borrow."
It's not just Detroit that's got troubles
Trying to sell $100,000+ cars with questionable technology looks like a bad bet.
Deathwatch: Why Tesla's Elon Musk Could Be the New Preston Tucker:
"In October, Valleywag reported that Tesla Motors was down to $9 million in the bank. Musk confirmed the company's cash position, and promised he would raise another $40 million in convertible debt from existing investors. But the fundraising is taking longer than planned. At a recent town hall meeting with customers, Musk reportedly told Tesla buyers that the company almost ran out of money in December, before it raised part of the round. Tesla is still seeking new funds."
Deathwatch: Why Tesla's Elon Musk Could Be the New Preston Tucker:
"In October, Valleywag reported that Tesla Motors was down to $9 million in the bank. Musk confirmed the company's cash position, and promised he would raise another $40 million in convertible debt from existing investors. But the fundraising is taking longer than planned. At a recent town hall meeting with customers, Musk reportedly told Tesla buyers that the company almost ran out of money in December, before it raised part of the round. Tesla is still seeking new funds."
Who should be fired ?
How about ... "Duh Donald"
The Associated Press: Trump venture folds, leaving buyers strapped:
"Investors were told last month their money was spent and they won't get a penny back. A single mother in suburban Los Angeles lost $200,000 and won't be able to send her sons to private universities. A Los Angeles-area businessman lost a deposit of more than $1 million on four Trump units, including two penthouses.
The project's collapse comes at a delicate time for Trump, whose casino company, Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc., filed for bankruptcy protection last month. He also is embroiled in a lawsuit to avoid paying debt on the struggling Trump International Hotel & Tower in Chicago.
Trump and his children heavily promoted the northern tip of Mexico's Baja California coast. He sold 188 units for $122 million the first day they went on a sale at a lavish event in a downtown San Diego hotel in December 2006."
The Associated Press: Trump venture folds, leaving buyers strapped:
"Investors were told last month their money was spent and they won't get a penny back. A single mother in suburban Los Angeles lost $200,000 and won't be able to send her sons to private universities. A Los Angeles-area businessman lost a deposit of more than $1 million on four Trump units, including two penthouses.
The project's collapse comes at a delicate time for Trump, whose casino company, Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc., filed for bankruptcy protection last month. He also is embroiled in a lawsuit to avoid paying debt on the struggling Trump International Hotel & Tower in Chicago.
Trump and his children heavily promoted the northern tip of Mexico's Baja California coast. He sold 188 units for $122 million the first day they went on a sale at a lavish event in a downtown San Diego hotel in December 2006."
Markets don't matter
Advise for pensioners, and those with 401K or other retirement plans ... those who view their portfolios as 201K's should ignore their statements.
Don't worry, be happy
Right
Stocks Should Matter to Obama - WSJ.com:
"Presidents usually pretend they don't pay much attention to such stock-market gyrations. If it's been said once from a White House podium, it's been said a thousand times: 'Markets rise, markets fall. We worry about the fundamentals of the economy instead.'
President Barack Obama gave his own version of that response this week, declaring in response to a reporter's question: 'You know, the stock market is sort of like a tracking poll in politics. It bobs up and down day to day, and if you spend all your time worrying about that, then you're probably going to get the long-term strategy wrong.'"
Don't worry, be happy
Right
Stocks Should Matter to Obama - WSJ.com:
"Presidents usually pretend they don't pay much attention to such stock-market gyrations. If it's been said once from a White House podium, it's been said a thousand times: 'Markets rise, markets fall. We worry about the fundamentals of the economy instead.'
President Barack Obama gave his own version of that response this week, declaring in response to a reporter's question: 'You know, the stock market is sort of like a tracking poll in politics. It bobs up and down day to day, and if you spend all your time worrying about that, then you're probably going to get the long-term strategy wrong.'"
Lest anyone think I'm a Republican
Rush is an entertainer, nothing more, nothing less.
And an ill informed one at that
Caught up in his own bravado and hype.
Call it ... 'drinks his own kool-aid"
Allowing the Democrats to position him as the spokesperson of the Republican party is just foolishness
The GOP's Limbaugh Dilemma - WSJ.com:
"Rush Limbaugh is right where he wants to be and right where the White House wants him: in the news. But Republicans have more mixed feelings about the controversial talk radio host's recent elevation."
And an ill informed one at that
Caught up in his own bravado and hype.
Call it ... 'drinks his own kool-aid"
Allowing the Democrats to position him as the spokesperson of the Republican party is just foolishness
The GOP's Limbaugh Dilemma - WSJ.com:
"Rush Limbaugh is right where he wants to be and right where the White House wants him: in the news. But Republicans have more mixed feelings about the controversial talk radio host's recent elevation."
What the F ???
But but but ... this is suppose to be the administration of change ...
The Obama Justice Department Adopts the George W. Bush Administration's Legal Stance on Presidential Powers - WSJ.com:
"The Obama Justice Department has adopted a legal stance identical to, if not more aggressive than, the Bush version. It argues that the court-forced disclosure of the surveillance programs would cause 'exceptional harm to national security' by exposing intelligence sources and methods. Last Friday the Ninth Circuit denied the latest emergency motion to dismiss, again kicking matters back to Judge Walker"
The Obama Justice Department Adopts the George W. Bush Administration's Legal Stance on Presidential Powers - WSJ.com:
"The Obama Justice Department has adopted a legal stance identical to, if not more aggressive than, the Bush version. It argues that the court-forced disclosure of the surveillance programs would cause 'exceptional harm to national security' by exposing intelligence sources and methods. Last Friday the Ninth Circuit denied the latest emergency motion to dismiss, again kicking matters back to Judge Walker"
Thursday, March 05, 2009
Change you can count on
When?
Maureen Dowd on pork in the budget.
Just veto it.
Op-Ed Columnist - Stage of Fools - NYTimes.com:
"In one of his disturbing spells of passivity, President Obama decided not to fight Congress and live up to his own no-earmark pledge from the campaign.
He’s been lecturing us on the need to prune away frills while the economy fizzles. He was slated to make a speech on “wasteful spending” on Wednesday.
“You know, there are times where you can afford to redecorate your house and there are times where you need to focus on rebuilding its foundation,” he said recently about the “hard choices” we must make. Yet he did not ask Congress to sacrifice and make hard choices; he let it do a lot of frivolous redecorating in its budget."
Maureen Dowd on pork in the budget.
Just veto it.
Op-Ed Columnist - Stage of Fools - NYTimes.com:
"In one of his disturbing spells of passivity, President Obama decided not to fight Congress and live up to his own no-earmark pledge from the campaign.
He’s been lecturing us on the need to prune away frills while the economy fizzles. He was slated to make a speech on “wasteful spending” on Wednesday.
“You know, there are times where you can afford to redecorate your house and there are times where you need to focus on rebuilding its foundation,” he said recently about the “hard choices” we must make. Yet he did not ask Congress to sacrifice and make hard choices; he let it do a lot of frivolous redecorating in its budget."
Bubble Bubble, Toil & Trouble
Piece from last Sept laying out where to point for blame
I would add borrowers who knew that their purchases, from the dot-com bubble to real estate were too good to be true.
Click link for entire piece
Calling Out the Culprits Who Caused the Crisis - washingtonpost.com
I would add borrowers who knew that their purchases, from the dot-com bubble to real estate were too good to be true.
Click link for entire piece
Calling Out the Culprits Who Caused the Crisis - washingtonpost.com
By Eric D. Hovde
Sunday, September 21, 2008; Page B01
Looking for someone to blame for the shambles in U.S. financial markets? As someone who owns both an investment bank and commercial banks, and also runs a hedge fund, I have sat front and center and watched as this mess unfolded. And in my view, there's no need to look beyond Wall Street -- and the halls of power in Washington. The former has created the nightmare by chasing obscene profits, and the latter have allowed it to spread by not practicing the oversight that is the federal government's responsibility.
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
Calling it as he sees it
Scathing comments from Jim
Let failures ... fail
Jim Rogers Doesn't Mince Words About the Crisis - BusinessWeek:
"He has harsh words for former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, suggests President Barack Obama and his economic team are not up to the task, and thinks tough love is the answer for America.
MARIA BARTIROMO
What do you think of the government's response to the economic crisis?
JIM ROGERS
Terrible. They're making it worse. It's pretty embarrassing for President Obama, who doesn't seem to have a clue what's going on—which would make sense from his background. And he has hired people who are part of the problem. [Treasury Secretary Tim] Geithner was head of the New York Fed, which was supposedly in charge of Wall Street and the banks more than anybody else. And as you remember, [Obama's chief economic adviser, Larry] Summers helped bail out Long-Term Capital Management years ago. These are people who think the only solution is to save their friends on Wall Street rather than to save 300 million Americans."
Let failures ... fail
Jim Rogers Doesn't Mince Words About the Crisis - BusinessWeek:
"He has harsh words for former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, suggests President Barack Obama and his economic team are not up to the task, and thinks tough love is the answer for America.
MARIA BARTIROMO
What do you think of the government's response to the economic crisis?
JIM ROGERS
Terrible. They're making it worse. It's pretty embarrassing for President Obama, who doesn't seem to have a clue what's going on—which would make sense from his background. And he has hired people who are part of the problem. [Treasury Secretary Tim] Geithner was head of the New York Fed, which was supposedly in charge of Wall Street and the banks more than anybody else. And as you remember, [Obama's chief economic adviser, Larry] Summers helped bail out Long-Term Capital Management years ago. These are people who think the only solution is to save their friends on Wall Street rather than to save 300 million Americans."
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