"History is a wonderful thing, if only it was true"

Friday, March 13, 2009

Rocket Science is OK on The Street

As long as you don't treat them like religon.
They are just models, not facts.

The flaw is in drinking the kool-aid and then leveraging up on the ideas.

They Tried to Outsmart Wall Street - NYTimes.com:

"As Dr. Derman put it in his book “My Life as a Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance,” “In physics there may one day be a Theory of Everything; in finance and the social sciences, you’re lucky if there is a useable theory of anything.”

Asked to compare her work to physics, one quant, who requested anonymity because her company had not given her permission to talk to reporters, termed the market “a wild beast” that cannot be controlled, and then added: “It’s not like building a bridge. If you’re right more than half the time you’re winning the game.”"

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