The Same-O Same-O

Posted in full as there is no permalink

I guess politicians are just ... politicians, doesn't matter what party

Note that I'm a devout and practicing non-partisan

Democrats Hide Pet Projects From Voters

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Published: June 3, 2007

Filed at 7:20 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON (AP) -- After promising unprecedented openness regarding Congress' pork barrel practices, House Democrats are moving in the opposite direction as they draw up spending bills for the upcoming budget year.

Democrats are sidestepping rules approved their first day in power in January to clearly identify ''earmarks'' -- lawmakers' requests for specific projects and contracts for their states.

Rather than including specific pet projects, grants and contracts in legislation as it is being written, Democrats are following an order by the House Appropriations Committee chairman to keep the bills free of such earmarks until it is too late for critics to effectively challenge them.

Rep. David Obey, D-Wis., says those requests for dams, community grants and research contracts for favored universities or hospitals will be added to spending measures in the fall. That is when House and Senate negotiators assemble final bills.

Such requests total billions of dollars.

As a result, most lawmakers will not get a chance to oppose specific projects as wasteful or questionable when the spending bills for various agencies get their first votes in the full House in June.

The House-Senate compromise bills due for final action in September cannot be amended and are subject to only one hour of debate, precluding challenges to individual projects.

Obey insists he is reluctantly taking the step because Appropriations Committee members and staff have not had enough time to fully review the 36,000 earmark requests that have flooded the committee.

What Obey is doing runs counter to new rules that Democrats promised would make such spending decisions more open.

Duh ... just makes sense

Efficiency, Not Just Alternatives, Is Promoted as an Energy Saver - New York Times

One to Two year payback is a slam dunk for me

Book Review - of Reviews

Just finished (last night) an on and off again read

The Scientist as Rebel (New York Review Books Collection): Books: Freeman Dyson

I say on and off again as each chapter is self contained.

I've enjoyed many of Freeman's writings over the years, and have had the distinct pleasure of chatting with him at his daughter Esther's late great PCForum.

He writes with charm and a deep knowledge of the subject (science) as well as subjects, with personal relationships with many of those profiled. 2006 updates and comments on the original copy are illuminating.

One professional review"

From Publishers Weekly
In an eclectic but deeply satisfying collection, Dyson, a prize-winning physicist and prolific author (Weapons and Hope), presents 33 previously published book reviews, essays and speeches (15 from the New York Review of Books). Dyson expresses his precise thinking in prose of crystal clarity, and readers will be absolutely enthralled by his breadth, his almost uncanny ability to tie diverse topics together and his many provocative statements. In the title essay, Dyson writes, "Science is an alliance of free spirits in all cultures rebelling against" the tyranny of their local cultures. In a 2006 review of Daniel Dennett's book, Breaking the Spell: Religion as a Natural Phenomenon, Dyson, himself a man of faith, takes issue with Dennett's quoting of physicist Stephen Weinberg that "for good people to do bad things—that takes religion." The converse is also true, says Dyson: "for bad people to do good things—that takes religion." Three of the best chapters (reprinted from Weapons and Hope) deal with the politics of the cold war. And his writings on Einstein, Teller, Newton, Oppenheimer, Norbert Wiener and Feynman will amuse while presenting deep insights into the nature of science and humanity. Virtually every chapter deserves to be savored. (Dec.)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Then, as I neared the end there was a review of Star Maker (Early Classics of Science Fiction): Books: Olaf Stapledon,Freeman J. Dyson,Patrick A. McCarthy. This is a re-issue of a work I first ran across sometime back in the '70's and have had several copies ( occasionally "misplaced" during moves or just lost in the clutter of my office(s) ).

I'm amazed and pleased that Freeman would not only review this work, but wrote the foreword to this re-released edition.

My early reading was from a Sci-Fi perspective, and that, in my view, many writers took a chapter or two and built novels or whole series of books on just a sub-theme or so presented by Stapleton.

I later saw it as allegories of situations, politics and movements of the inter-war years. It was first published in 1937, although my copy had a prior book, Last and First Men, published in 1930 included.

More here:Olaf Stapledon - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

And from the original preface:

"At a moment when Europe is in danger of a catastrophe worse than that of 1914 a book like this may be condemned as a distraction from the desperately urgent defence of civilization against modern barbarism.

Year by year, month by month, the plight of our fragmentary and precarious civilization becomes more serious. Fascism abroad grows more bold and ruthless in its foreign ventures, more tyrannical toward its own citizens, more barbarian in its contempt for the life of the mind. Even in our own country we have reason to fear a tendency toward militarization and the curtailment of civil liberty. Moreover, while the decades pass, no resolute step is taken to alleviate the injustice of our social order. Our outworn economic system dooms millions to frustration."

Closing comment from Freeman:
"Star Maker may be, like the universe we happen to live in, a flawed masterpiece, but it is still a masterpiece. It is a classic work of imaginative literature, speaking to our modern age. It should be on the list of Great Books that anyone claiming to be educated should read. It is worthy to be compared, as McCarthy compares it in the introduction following this preface, with The Divine Comedy of Dante."

Well, guess what's back on my summer reading list.
It's been at least a decade or so, time to tackle it again.

Talk about niche markets

Millions of Addresses and Thousands of Sites, All Leading to One - New York Times:

"NameMedia recently finished building technology where visitors to niche sites - say, one on 1957 Mustangs - will be presented with links to other sites with similar images. The links will be between sites within the NameMedia network, but Mr. Conlin said that an unnamed Internet photo-sharing service with more than five million monthly users would soon join."

Mustang started production in 1964

Cause and Effect

A provocative idea that maybe the voting public is a bunch of idiots.

Idea Lab - Voting and Voters - Elections - Politics - New York Times:

"Now Bryan Caplan, an economist at George Mason University, has attracted notice for raising a pointed question: Do voters have any idea what they are doing? In his provocative new book, “The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies,” Caplan argues that “voters are worse than ignorant; they are, in a word, irrational — and vote accordingly.” Caplan’s complaint is not that special-interest groups might subvert the will of the people, or that government might ignore the will of the people. He objects to the will of the people itself."

And a sampler of what we get...
A Washington, DC airport ticket agent offers some examples of why our country is in trouble!


1. I had a New Hampshire Congresswoman ask for an aisle seat so that her hair wouldn't get messed up by being near the window.

2. I got a call from a candidate's staffer, who wanted to go to Capetown. I started to explain the length of the flight and the passport information, then she interrupted me with, "I'm not trying to make you look stupid, but Capetown is in Massachusetts," Without trying to make her look stupid, I calmly explained, "Cape Cod is in Massachusetts, Capetown is in Africa," Her response - click.

3. A senior Vermont Congressman called, furious about a Florida package we did. I asked what was wrong with the vacation in Orlando. He said he was expecting an ocean-view room. I tried to explain that's not possible, since Orlando is in the middle of the state. He replied, "Don't lie to me, I looked on the map and Florida is a very thin state!"

4. I got a call from a lawmaker's wife who asked, "Is it possible to see England from Canada?" I said, "No." She said, "But they look so close on the map."

5. An aide for a cabinet member once called and asked if he could rent a car in Dallas. When I pulled up the reservation, I noticed he had only a 1-hour layover in Dallas. When I asked him why he wanted to rent a car, he said, "I heard Dallas was a big airport,
and we will need a car to drive between gates to save time."


6. An Illinois Congresswoman called last week. She needed to know how it was possible that her flight from Detroit left at 8:30 am and got to Chicago at 8:33 am. I explained that Michigan was an hour ahead of Illinois, but she couldn't understand the concept of time zones. Finally, I told her the plane went fast, and she bought that.

7. A New York lawmaker called and asked, "Do airlines put your physical description on your bag so they know whose luggage belongs to whom?" I said, "No, why do you ask?" She replied, "Well, when I checked in with the airline, they put a tag on my luggage that said (FAT), and I'm overweight. I think that's very rude!" After putting her on hold for a minute while I looked into it (I was laughing) I came back and explained the city code for Fresno, CA is (FAT), and the airline was just putting a destination tag on her luggage.

8. A Senator's aide called to inquire about a trip package to Hawaii. After going over all the cost info, she asked, "Would it be cheaper to fly to California, and then take the train to Hawaii?"

9. I just got off the phone with a freshman Congressman who asked, "How do I know which plane to get on?" I asked him what exactly he meant, to which he replied, "I was told my flight number is 823, but none of these planes have numbers on them."

10. A lady Senator called and said, "I need to fly to Pepsi-Cola, Florida. Do I have to get on one of those little computer planes?" I asked if she meant fly to Pensacola, Fl. on a commuter plane. She said, "Yeah, whatever, smarty!"

11. A senior Senator called and had a question about the documents he needed in order to fly to China. After a lengthy discussion about passports, I reminded him that he needed a visa. "Oh, no I don't. I've been to China many times and never had to have one of those." I double checked and sure enough, his stay required a visa. When I told him this he said, "Look, I've been to China four times and every time they have accepted my American Express!"

12. A New Mexico Congresswoman called to make reservations, "I want to go from Chicago to Rhino, New York." I was at a loss for words. Finally, I said, "Are you sure that's the name of the town?" Yes, what flights do you have?" replied the lady. After some searching, I came back with, "I'm sorry, ma'am, I've looked up every airport code in the country and can't find a Rhino anywhere." The lady retorted, "Oh, don't be silly! Everyone knows where it is. Check your map!" So I scoured a map of the state of New York and finally offered, "You don't mean Buffalo, do you?" The reply? "Whatever! I knew it was a big animal".

Busy

Not much posting
"Summer time" and we are scrambling to get ready

Short list
Shirley wrapping up on her studio ... almost done, but painter slapped up some "sample's"
will have to take a photo - as Mary said years ago about a "bike jacket " I'd bought ... "baby shit brown" ... whoops
But Shirley's already moving art gear from guest house to studio

Which brings us to guest house - getting redecorated (long overdue)
Some paint, new carpet, and furnishings

Back to Cabin - logs getting "treatment" (linseed oil) and new chinking
Should be good for a few years, getting ready for us/family/guests

Boat lift done, time to slide it into the water, float da boat

House - some new flooring downstairs - tile hall and re-tile the "utility" shower (the one I use after outdoor work)
Later, I hope to finish up some furniture updates ... dining room table - have a Le Corbusier in mind.

Misc other stuff like trim paint ...
Keeps us out of too much trouble

OK I'm a Skeptic

Gasoline prices are up
Reports that they are up 32cents per gallon over last year.

Quick math
Assume 15 gallon fill up, it's $4.80 per fill over last year.

A bottle of cheap (real cheap) wine, a bit more than a fancy coffee, don't know about bottled water (I fix my own plain coffee and don't buy bottled water)

But it's enough for politicians to grab the mike and talk about price gouging.
What about the demand side?
Stop driving so much, cut demand, therefore ease pricing pressures?

Whoops - drivers are voters, can't do that.

And don't look at sales taxes, here in Michigan, the state would pick up about 29cents on that price hike.

Ah but I'm just a cynic as well as a skeptic

What happens if prices go down?

Al Gore is running

Despite protestations to the contrary, I think he's setting up for a run.
Al Gore has Big Plans - New York Times

Interesting comments on his treatment by the Clinton White House with regards to Kyoto and the environment in general

Close to home

Quicktime presentation by
Ben Whitehouse

24 hours in extreme high def of North Bar Lake
Just a few min from us (either lake house or cabin)

A project sponsered by Panasonic, shot Oct '06

Ironic Icon

In conversation last week with my daughter, who's just back from London, about the Tate Modern, and in particular, the Rothko Collection which I particularly liked when Shirley and I visited back in '99.

So I found it ironic that a Rothko went for 72.8Million this week at auction.

Well, even if I don't have pockets that deep, guess I have a little bit of "taste", or at least similar taste to someone with deep pockets.

Possible positive news

Did a quick check of NYTimes and other sources, but didn't see coverage. Maybe because it offers something other than doom and gloom?

Climate change | How to cool the world | Economist.com:
How to cool the world

May 10th 2007
From The Economist print edition
A new report on the state of the planet offers some grounds for optimism

"THE Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the body set up under the auspices of the United Nations to produce a global consensus on the science and economics of climate change, reports once every six years. On May 4th, it published the third tranche of its fourth report. The first two tranches, on the science of climate change and its impact around the world, made for depressing reading. Climate change was getting worse, mankind was responsible, and most regions—especially the poorer bits of the world—were going to suffer. The third tranche, by contrast, was upbeat. Climate change may threaten mankind, but mankind has a good chance of averting it—if it puts its mind to it.

Some greenhouse-gas emissions, as the IPCC points out, can be cut at no cost at all—through straightforward measures such as improving insulation and binning wasteful incandescent light bulbs. Such measures could both save people and companies money, and save the planet from a chunk of carbon emissions."

Wow, what a trip it's been ... so far

Charles Babcock reviews the web so far
Takes me back through various iterations and I've managed to use most, execpt AOL IM, Craigslist, Hotmail and WoW...

What's The Greatest Web Software Ever Written? -- Web Software -- InformationWeek

I recall the launches of several, AltaVista, Amazon, eBay and Wikipedia

Jerry Falwell 1933 - 2007

Bye Bye


Jerry Falwell 1933 - 2007 - TMZ.com:

Home

From friend Keith (BTW - good stuff on his blog)
Modeshift:

"Linenger, who is 52 and has lived for eight years in Suttons Bay with his wife, Kathryn, and four young children, published a successful book in 1999, Off The Planet, about his Mir experiences. I had a chance to ask him during a free moment on Saturday how he got to northern Michigan. He smiled and said Michigan’s green mitt, surrounded by the blue Great Lakes, is one of the most recognizable and truly beautiful sights from space. He said that only the Himalayas, the Caribbean, and the Great Barrier Reef off the coast of Australia compare. He also said that Sleeping Bear Dunes, the centerpiece of our national park here, is easily seen from space, a great slash of white that drops headlong into Lake Michigan on one side. And on the other side is a string of inland lakes that from space look like a necklace of pearls."

Gas Crunch

Couldn't tell by the traffic coming back from Chicago

I cruised around 80, and, not counting semi-trucks, almost as many cars passed me as I passed.

Guess gas prices weren't a concern.

Trackin Politics

Click the link "Trackin Politics" above or here

To the NYTimes blog on politics and the elections, with links to other political/politics blogs

"About The Caucus"
Kate Phillips and The Times's politics staff are analyzing the latest news from Washington and around the nation and looking ahead to the 2008 presidential elections.

VRM - Mission Impossible

Doc (Searls) has posted often about
VRM (Vendor Relationship Management)

I've had a few beefs as well

Shirley was trying to wrap up her mother's estate and when dealing with the local Electric Utility came up with a great phrase : "As impossible as possible"

Spring

Had to leave home too soon.
We have some downstate, but not carpets of trillium like this.

On a lighter note

Time for the REAL SIMPLE LIFE

Live by the PR, die by the PR

E! News - Paris' To-Do List: Ask for Pardon, Rehire Publicist - Paris Hilton | Nicky Hilton:

"'My friend Joshua started this petition, please help and sihn it,' the spellcheck-challenged Hilton wrote on her MySpace blog. 'i LOVE YOU ALL!!!!!'

The petition, looking to appeal to 'all fans and supporters and all that are outraged by injustice,' describes Hilton as someone who 'provides hope for young people all over the U.S. and the world. She provides beauty and excitement to [most of] our otherwise mundane lives.'In exchange for her global good deeds, the petition contends, she should not be locked up."

Global Good Deeds ?!?!?

I must have missed the Mother Teressa phase

Reflective reading

Time to read lastnight
Basically while "sitting" getting prepared for minor medical procedure, I read a few chapters of the following book.

Sorry that NYReview of books keeps the full text in the "pay-per-view" archive, and may transcribe some further excerpts as I think that they are most interesting... calling into question "Global Warming" while acknowledging Climate Change.

I greatly enjoy Freeman's writing and have had the pleasure of occasional conversations at PCForum.

What a World! - The New York Review of Books: "Review

What a World!
By Freeman Dyson

The Earth's Biosphere: Evolution, Dynamics, and Change

by Vaclav Smil

MIT Press, 346 pp., $32.95

"It is refreshing to read a book full of facts about our planet and the life that has transformed it, written by an author who does not allow facts to be obscured or overshadowed by politics. Vaclav Smil is well aware of the political disputes that are now raging about the effects of human activities on climate and biodiversity, but he does not give them more attention than they deserve. He emphasizes the enormous gaps in our knowledge, the sparseness of our observations, and the superficiality of our theories. He calls attention to the many aspects of planetary evolution which are poorly understood, and which must be better understood before we can reach an accurate diagnosis of the present condition of our planet. When we are trying to take care of a planet, just as when we are taking care of a human patient, diseases must be diagnosed before they can be cured."

Some of Freeman's further comments on the subject here:
University of Michigan

"Unfortunately, I am an old heretic. Old heretics don't cut much ice. What the world needs is young heretics. I am hoping that one or two of you may fill that role. So I will tell you briefly about three heresies that I'm promoting.

The first of my heresies says that all the fluff about global warming is grossly exaggerated. Here I am opposing the holy brotherhood of twilight model experts and the crowd of diluted citizens that believe the numbers predicted by their models. Of course they say I have no degree in meteorology and I am therefore not qualified to speak.

But I have studied their climate models and know what they can do. The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics and do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields, farms and forests. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in.

The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand. It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models than to put on winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds. That's why the climate model experts end up believing their own models.

There's no doubt that parts of the world are getting warmer, but the warming is not global. The warming happens in places and times where it is cold, in the arctic more than the tropics, in the winter more than the summer, at night more than the daytime.

I'm not saying the warming doesn't cause problems, obviously it does. Obviously we should be trying to understand it. I'm saying that the problems are being grossly exaggerated. They take away money and attention from other problems that are much more urgent and important. Poverty, infectious diseases, public education and public health. Not to mention the preservation of living creatures on land and in the oceans."

But we are in the political season, and "Global Warming" is the rallying cry.
Tectonic forces of politics are shifting under our feet.

I will reiterate - energy savings, in and of itself can be good, regardless of one's thinking about "greenhouse effect" but mandates of behavior based on incomplete science should be questioned.

Reflections on IT

I've posted before on the end of PCForum and commented on changes in IT

Looney Dunes: Reflecting on the late great PCForum

"Seems that maybe there isn't all that much left to create/invent.
A new Google?
I don't think so.

Thinking about electricity, Edison and Telsa created major infrastructure, microwaves and toasters, power tools and PC's are applications.

The internet and IT are now ubiquitous, there will be many many applications, but will there be revolutions?"

Looney Dunes: Loss

Now an observation from Bank Credit Analyst (BCA Research)
Special Report "Will the Supply-Side Low Inflation Boom Persist?"

"The growth in IT investment has slowed in the U.S. from its earlier rapid pace, and there have not been any groundbreaking software developments for some time. Nonetheless, there is no indication that the IT revolution has run its course. The prices of technology goods continue to fall, and the pace of innovation remains high."

Prices drop, IT becomes more and more integrated in day to day life, but fewer revolutionary changes, if any. Many incremental changes, but few revolutions.

There Goes the Neighborhood

At least we live outside of town ...
Site ranks Traverse City 2nd in top places to live

Saturday Project

New Boat Hoist



Archive photos of the old lift : Seeberger Lift - a photoset on Flickr

Construction of new one: Boat hoist - a photoset on Flickr

New going together with white oak for the "hoops" - the verticals and crossbars, these carry the load.

The old lift dis-assembled and new one to fit dimensions of "Chip's Ahoy"
Chip's Ahoy Restoration - a photoset on Flickr

One of my few indulgences
She turns 60 just a few weeks after I do ...

Not so Green after all?

Global Warming - Carbon Dioxide - Environment - Climate Change - Air Pollution - New York Times:

"The worst of the carbon-offset programs resemble the Catholic Church's sale of indulgences back before the Reformation,%u201D said Denis Hayes, the president of the Bullitt Foundation, an environmental grant-making group. %u201CInstead of reducing their carbon footprints, people take private jets and stretch limos, and then think they can buy an indulgence to forgive their sins.

This whole game is badly in need of a modern Martin Luther, D Mr. Hayes added."

Are the candidates listening?

Alternative to "Corn Flakes"

This one might make sense, CO from industrial processes converted to Ethanol... not relying on Govt programs to convert corn ...

Carbon Gas Is Explored as a Source of Ethanol - New York Times:

"SAN FRANCISCO, April 23 : A New Zealand company said Monday that it had secured financing from an investor in Silicon Valley to produce ethanol from an untapped source of carbon monoxide gas. The company, LanzaTech, based in Auckland, said it had developed a fermentation process in which bacteria consume carbon monoxide and produce ethanol. Ethanol can be used as an alternative fuel or an octane-boosting, pollution-reducing additive to gasoline."

As opposed to wrong headed policies which are a flat out bad idea.
Check this:
Foreign Affairs - How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor - C. Ford Runge and Benjamin Senauer

Even Greener and Greener

BP Global - Environment and society - Carbon footprint calculator

Used a different "carbon footprint calculator" (BP) and found that our "footprint" may be even smaller.

Combined with our prior calculation on our woodlot, it looks like we may sequester 245% of the carbon we generate.

Lots of assumptions in these tools, so I'll be real conservative and call it 2:1

Then we take a look at the rest of our woodlot:

Factors Controlling Long- and Short-Term Sequestration of Atmospheric CO2 in a Mid-latitude Forest -- Barford et al. 294 (5547): 1688 -- Science:

"Net uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2)measured by eddy covariance in a 60- to 80-year-old forest averaged2.0 (plus or minus) 0.4 megagrams of carbon per hectare per year during 1993 to 2000, with interannual variations exceeding 50%. Biometry indicated storage of 1.6 (plus or minus) 0.4 megagrams of carbon per hectare per year over 8 years, 60% in live biomass and the balance in coarse woody debris and soils, confirming eddy-covariance results.
Weather and seasonal climate (e.g., variations in growing-season length or cloudiness) regulated seasonal and interannual fluctuations of carbon uptake. Legacies of prior disturbance and management, especially stand age and composition, controlled carbon uptake on the decadal time scale, implying that eastern forests could be managed for sequestration of carbon."

Taking the lower end of the estimates, it looks like we almost match our footprint with the non-pine portion of our lot.
"Back of envelope" (spreadsheet) numbers look like sequestration of over 22 tons.

BP Calculator came up with footprint of 25 tons.

"Carbon Footprint" (Carbon Footprint calculator) came in around 32.5 to 35 depending on some assumptions.

"Climate Crisis" )An Inconvenient Truth > Carbon Calculator) came in between 22.5 and 25 depending on assumptions.

Greenery

Well, with Earth Day and all the concomitant news and feature stories tied to the “Greenhouse” and carbon issues I decided to do some rough checks on our household “budget”

Quick check online and found Carbon Footprint calculator

Pulled together some good estimates (I happen to track our uses) and the results run something like this

All real estate (utilities use) comes to about 35metric tons of CO2, layer on assumed other use (per the calculator) and we get about 40 metric tons.

Then checking the carbon sequestration of just our red pine acres (about 15) and we get a number of about 60 metric tons annual “capture” (from an EPA site I lost track of)

This gives us from 150 to 175% capture vs generation, without even calculating an additional 35 acres of hardwoods, various other plantings and the like.

I feel better already, and don't need to "buy" carbon credits like some politicians seem to do.

I'll now probably try to refine my numbers, hopefully feel even better (G).

Unclear Concept

Or maybe "Fuzzy Logic"
Agressive move into a dying business.

Yahoo Strikes Ad Deal With More Papers - New York Times:
"On Monday, Yahoo announced a broad deal with publishers representing 264 newspapers to sell national advertising across their Web sites. It may be the clearest sign to date of the company's efforts to extend its advertising platform beyond the panoply of Yahoo sites."

This followed by news of earnings drop of 11%

Some BIG Trees

Capping our first day up the coast we visited Armstrong Redwoods

Some damn big trees, even if not quite as big as some of the "Giant Sequoia" further inland.



I guess that, on average they stand 5plus times as tall as our pines, and, of course, much greater diameter ... but then our pines are just over 45 years old, not up to 1400 years!

A few more shots here (Redwoods - a photoset on Flickr)

California Cruizer

Posted recap or our brief trip to Russian River and Napa here : Earthy Delights: California Dream'n


Here's the rental car we cruised in. Strange "features" that we finally got use to. Things like having to jiggle the steering wheel to get the ignition to work, and annoying "alarm" linked to the top being down. If I only lowered the top to where the servo motors whined, not continued until they "chirped" there was an alarm at low speed telling us that the top was down ... like duh!




Overall an OK car, but more styling than substance. It's actually not that much smaller than my 93 Seville, and has excess headroom - maybe six inches worth. Little trunk space, small rear seat, long expanse of dash.
But it was a rental, the only rag-tops they had.

Even with temps in the high 50's we got our dose of sunshine.

Visit to Montera

Sideways

Couple of day side trip to Sonoma and Napa
Blogging unlikely for a bit

nice drive up Rt 1 from SanFran - almost miss having a 'cyle for this leg ... somethign sorta lazy with lots of torque

instead, we had a wierd V-Dub convert ... odd car.
top down most of the day, soaking up Vitamin D, mid 50's almost warm for us

more likely later

Lives on the Record and on the Web - New York Times

Not much bloggin
On left coast with daughter/grandson
But friend Keith had this piece today ...
Read it
Lives on the Record and on the Web - New York Times

Reflecting on the late great PCForum

Looney Dunes: Loss

Some email "conversations" today and I have yet to post on all the wonderful people I met over the years (trying to promise to do so...)

I have been reflecting on Esther's decision to wrap it all up.

Seems that maybe there isn't all that much left to create/invent.
A new Google?
I don't think so.

Thinking about electricity, Edison and Telsa created major infrastructure, microwaves and toasters, power tools and PC's are applications.

The internet and IT are now ubiquitous, there will be many many applications, but will there be revolutions?

Some posts and comments on Education

John Robb's Weblog: Pull Education

and

John Robb's Weblog: Lifelong learning for Alumni

Back on VRM topic

Got home last night/late afternoon just as we got some good rain/wind
About half an hour later, just as we'd finished unpacking, power went out.

Couple hours later, set up generator, and run to "Art's" (Tim is smart and has big generator... everybody knows there's a hot meal and cold beer at Art's) for supper.

Around 8-8:30 I call our electric company to get an idea about when to expect power back on.

Well, the robo-voice passed me off to a "real live person" because we've consolidated all of our accounts.

Lame-o can't find our address, multiple "please spell your last name", "please repeat your phone number" queries.

I pointed out that the whole damn area was out, but he thought we were in Bay City, not Maple City ... come on...
Simple: I enter my phone number for the robo-voice, you DON'T need MY particular address, there are Consumer Power trucks out on the road!!!
Just tell me what your system has for anticipated power restoration...

And for what it's worth, there is info on the web (without power, how do I get to the the damn web?)

About that locking gas cap

Remember the 70's gas lines ...
Well, in real terms, prices may be the same, but behavior is different
Drivers Shrug as Gasoline Prices Soar - New York Times

I'd been meaning to look for data to support my thinking, but the article covers it.
Although on an inflation adjusted basis, gas may be nearing the point they were during the crunch of the mid 70's, folks are not changing habits ... much.

My supposition is that fuel costs are a smaller portion of the family budget.

And when was the last time you saw a locking gas cap?

North East Asia "stuff"

Posting some NYTimes pieces before clearing bookmarks

Quickie on history
North Korea - China - Japan - South Korea - Nuclear Disarmament - New York Times:

" History can be omnipresent or repressed in northeast Asia, but nearly everyone agrees it is festering and unresolved. Historic resentments and nationalist anger are volatile and easily inflamed, as evidenced by the outrage that followed recent comments by Japan%u2019s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, about Korean %u201Ccomfort women%u201D in World War II. Yet, most often, that anger is compartmentalized to protect the hum of commerce. China and Japan conduct record bilateral trade even as public attitudes in both countries can range anywhere from mutual distrust to open loathing."

Then we have this
Japan Minister Raps "Blond" Diplomats in Mideast - New York Times
Posted in full :

"TOKYO, March 22 (Reuters) - Blond, blue-eyed Westerners probably can't be as successful at Middle East diplomacy as Japanese with their ``yellow faces,'' Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso was quoted by media as saying on Wednesday.

``Japan is doing what Americans can't do,'' the Nikkei business daily quoted the gaffe-prone Aso as saying in a speech.

``Japanese are trusted. If (you have) blue eyes and blond hair, it's probably no good,'' he said.

``Luckily, we Japanese have yellow faces.''

Foreign Ministry officials were unable to comment on the report, which said Aso elaborated by saying Japan had never exploited the Middle East, started a war there or fired a shot.

Aso, seen in some circles as a contender to succeed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe if the Japanese leader runs into trouble in a July election for parliament's upper house, is known for verbal gaffes.

He offended South Korea with remarks in 2003 that were interpreted in Seoul as trying to justify some of Japan's actions during its 1910-1945 colonization of the Korean peninsula.

He also drew criticism in 2001 when, as economics minister, he said he hoped to make Japan the kind of country where ``rich Jews'' would want to live.

Aso said then he had not intended to be discriminatory.

Japan has long felt it has a special role to play in the Middle East because it lacks much of the political baggage of the United States, allowing for warmer ties with Arab nations.

Last week Tokyo hosted four-way talks aimed at working toward peace in the Middle East, involving Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Territories as well as Japan.

Abe's government has been battered by a series of problematic remarks by cabinet ministers this year, including the health minister's reference to women as ``birth-giving machines'' and Aso's own description of Washington's occupation strategy in Iraq as ``immature.''

Long time ago

Friend sent me link to GoogleVideo of "Nelson's 24" from 1983

Seems like just a few years ago (hah) I was involved in Motorcycle racing.
Ended up running a team at Nelson's Ledges for the "24 hour"
The race would start 4PM on Saturday, and simply run till 4PM Sunday.

Manged to win in '77 against the odds, esp. as we were running a Ducati (not known as an Endurance Racer at the time). But it was fast, and (relatively) fuel efficient. We did a rider change stop every hour, but fuel only every other stop. With lap times around 1:30, saving maybe 30 seconds an hour adds up (we were limited to filling through the stock gas cap). Later I developed a system that dumped about a gallon a second through the same 1-1.5inch opening.

We were also limited to all stock parts on the wheels, so came up with a few trick tools for tire changes. Managed about 90seconds. Today, with special parts, it's about 10 second job.

Trick is planning and organization more than absolute speed. This includes riders that are consistent as well as fast, yet don't crash. Crashing really slows down your overall pace.

Anyway there's a video of one of the '83 race here

I was done entering my own team by then ('83) but was helping others with management and planning.

Looking at the video now... wow, the place was a dump, and we were all pretty scruffy, but winning felt pretty good. We went on to win the "National Championship" that year. Tried again in '78 but crashed out.

Doppelgänger

Contrary to what some have thought, it's not me on
"Dancing with the Stars"
It's John Ratzengerger

Journalism 101+

Or Journalism unplugged

The Doc Searls Weblog : Saturday, March 24, 2007

Aside, well over a decade ago, in conversation with an old (late) friend in the journalism business I suggested the "end of newspapers" ... well, it's taken a long time, but it's coming fast.

Some may survive, but the old model is broken.

More on Climate and Cents

Further comments on my reaction to Gore's movie
Looney Dunes: Comprehensive Reply to AIT

As I'd posted before, my reaction to “An Inconvenient Truth” mainly arose from spotting statements or implications that I think are plainly false.

One example : near the end, Al goes into fuel economy standards and draws conclusion(s) that US Automakers are failing because of these standards.
I'm going to paraphrase, not having the exact text.

Gore shows, graphically, what current and future standards are/will be in various countries/markets. EU, Japan, Canada(I believe), China and the US.

Then he either states, or implies, that the lower CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy)American standards means that American Car Companies can't or won't be able to sell into China.

Wrong! - this is Fleet Average, there are cars that get higher than the standard mileage and those that get lower. American Manufactures can and DO sell into the Chinese market.

Furthermore, the North American auto industry is robust, it's the Detroit "Big" Three that are hurting, in large part due to their labor cost structure. This is not a slam on the unions, but the Japanese (and other) manufacturers do NOT have the same legacy costs.
And Toyota is rolling out Big, lower mileage, Trucks.

Another consideration ... gasoline is cheap here, $2.50 Gas is about the same as 65cent gas in 1975.

I don't have hard data, but consumer behavior (buying larger cars/trucks) indicates that their budgets can handle the cost.

Raise prices, behavior will change (after grumbling).

Back to AIT ... it's when I see what I believe to be a wrong statement or implication, I start to question other data.

Enough rant
On to other considerations, cost savings.
Keith and family chose to go to compact fluorescents (CF):
Modeshift � Blog Archive � What Is Al Gore Up To?

Regardless of Climate Change, this is becoming a sensible move.

I've uses CF's for many years, in a mix with incandescent and halogen lighting.
Incandescent mainly as they are dim-able.
Just this year, I learned that there are now dim-able CF's. I'll be looking at cycling these in as the old bulbs burn out.

I'm also looking at LED's. Some stuff here: LED Lighting for even more savings.

Layer on the fact that I took advantage of Carter's tax credits and have used Solar Water heating (pre-heating our well water) for decades, I applaud techniques and technologies to save bucks.

All of this may, or may not, "save the planet" but I know it will save our household budget some bucks.

It just makes "cents"

PS : we gave CF's this last Christmas to most of the families we celebrate with.
(and this was before we saw Gore's movie)

Beach VolleyBall

So your's truly does the set, Doc gets the spike...
The Doc Searls Weblog : Friday, March 23, 2007

Clarification of my "markets as conversations" pondering

And if you know either Doc or me, the Volley Ball image might be a bit weird (ok ok ... good for a snicker)

The Future (?) of Advertising/Marketing

Good quick commentary on "Pay per action"
The Doc Searls Weblog : Wednesday, March 21, 2007

with relevant links.

As for Doc ... Hugh has some comments here:
gapingvoid: "cartoons drawn on the back of business cards": edelman talk

Cluetrain is a "must read" (markets are conversations) but do I REALLY NEED a conversation with the supplier of toilet paper?
Unique products and services, but commodity items?

Still mulling this over, some products and maybe services are "commodity" by nature. Even some media ... I don't have to talk back to NYTimes, just dip into the info-stream over morning coffee.

Why China will hit the wall ... Hard

China is speeding for the demographic wall and there is little it can do about it.

Of all the major nations, China will hit the wall the fastest.
This is the result of the "one child" policy.
China will be old and still relatively poor soon

My opinion : China will not be a strategic threat, it needs it's young men working and creating wealth, not fighting.

"China Scrambles for Stability as Its Workers Age - New York Times:
"The proportion of people 60 and older is growing faster in China than in any other major country, with the number of retirees set to double between 2005 and 2015, when it is expected to reach 200 million. By mid- century, according to United Nations projections, roughly 430 million people - about a third of the population- will be retirees."

Other key quotes:

"...the Chinese economy, which has thrived for decades on the cheap labor of hundreds of millions of young, uneducated workers from the countryside. Changes in the country’s population structure are taking place hand in hand with changes in the structure of the Chinese family. China’s one-child policy, which began in 1980, means that, beginning with the current generation of young adults, couples will face the difficult task of caring for four parents through old age.

By the same token, the ratio of workers to retired people will decline from about six to one now to about two to one by 2040."

and

"The bind that China finds itself in takes form in an often-posed question: Can the country grow rich before it grows old? Increasingly, experts here say the answer, which also has huge implications for the global economy, appears doubtful."

Halfway

Lots of references

We live at the 45th parallel (well, close enough, maybe 12miles from exact point) halfway between the equator and north pole

Earth Day, Vernal Equinox (well it was last night)
halfway between Winter and Summer Solstice

My stance on Global Warming:
halfway between the Chicken Littles (and politicians running for office) and the nay-sayers.

I don't by the end of the world Hollywood hype, but don't see any problem with addressing pollution (such as non CO2 output of coal burning, heavy metals, radiation and the like). But see no reason not to go for cost savings on a personal level.

Politics : I'm devout and practicing independent, with no interest in radical left or right. I'm disappointed that we lack a voice for the vast middle of the road.

Halfway.

Comprehensive Reply to AIT

Spent some time yesterday looking for transcript of "An Inconvenient Truth", without success other than a book that apparently matches closely.
This AM a friend alerted me to this : CEI (Competitive Enterprise Institute) critique of Gore's movie.


I'd been bothered by Gore's highly selective use of data and presentation.
Take the following with a grain of salt, same as when viewing AIT.
Judge for ourself about Competitive Enterprise Institute: Advancing Liberty, Public Policy Research, CEI

It's about 150 pages, but does a good job of addressing, what I view as, flaws, extremely selective use of data and misleading images/impressions.

Author Marlo Lewis takes AIT on point by point.

Intro:
"More people will see the movie, An Inconvenient Truth (AIT), than will read the book. However, the two are so close in verbal content and visual imagery that, if you’ve seen the movie, you’ve practically read the book, and vice versa.

Because it is much easier to reference pages in a book than scenes from a movie,
the Skeptic’s Guide comments on the book version of AIT.

To minimize redundancy, the Skeptic’s Guide skips over introductory material that Vice President Gore develops in greater detail later in AIT. In most cases, passages from AIT are reproduced verbatim. In cases where passages are summarized, this will be clear from the context.

AIT does not have distinct chapters. To help the reader follow the sequence of topics under discussion, I divide the Skeptic’s Guide into several sections. My commentary mostly follows the running order of Gore’s presentation. However, to keep each section of the commentary focused on the same or similar topics, I have—in some instances—grouped together thematically similar but non-consecutive passages
from AIT.

Some readers may wonder why I comment on almost every substantive statement Gore makes rather than just the key points or the dozen or so most egregious distortions. Why cover so many seemingly minor details?

Two considerations impelled me to take a comprehensive approach. First, anything less than a point-by- point examination of AIT is too easy to dismiss as cherry picking. After all, any non-technical treatment of complex scientific and economic issues is bound to be distorting to some degree. Confronted with a list of a dozen errors, or even two dozen, critics could accuse me of quibbling and plausibly claim that Gore’s most important points (whichever ones I did not comment on) were correct.

Second, AIT makes a powerful impression on audiences chiefly by the sheer number of assertions it makes and images it presents. A typical audience reaction is to conclude that if even half of what Gore says is true, then the planet is in serious trouble.

So I decided to take a leaf out of Gore’s playbook. By the sheer number of errors and distortions I have uncovered, I hope to foster a healthy skepticism about global warming alarmism and the energy suppression agenda it allegedly justifies."

Exercise

Well
Shirley headed out to exercise class, but was back quickly
We'd gotten a late winter snow overnight



OK, check the saw, fire it up and get to work.
About 3omin later, had enough cleared for her to get through
Another 15 or so of cut and toss
Got my cardio in for the day.




Cutting fallen always a bit tricker as there is risk of pinching

More Nuke Notes

Patrick Moore, co-founder of Greenpeace supports Nukes
Greenpeace founder supports nuclear energy - Wikinews

As does James Lovelock
James Lovelock - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:

"'I have never regarded nuclear radiation or nuclear power as anything other than a normal and inevitable part of the environment. Our prokaryotic forebears evolved on a planet-sized lump of fallout from a star-sized nuclear explosion, a supernova that synthesised the elements that go to make our planet and ourselves.'"

My opinion is that “old nukes” were managed by “coal plant” style managers, not “nuclear navy” or “Rickenbacker” style managers. In other words sticklers for safety.

How long before Google goes for it's own nukes to power server farms/data centers?

I, Cringely . The Pulpit . When Being a Verb is Not Enough | PBS:

"Google is building a LOT of data centers. The company appears to be as attracted to cheap and reliable electric power as it is to population proximity. In Goose Creek they bought those 520 acres from the local state-owned electric utility, which probably answers the land question posed above. By buying out all the remaining building sites in an industrial park owned by an electric utility, Google guarantees itself a vast and uninterruptible supply of power, much as it has done in Oregon by building a data center next to a hydroelectric dam or back here again in Columbia by building near a nuclear power station."

Bright Idea

Working with Shirley on lighting ideas for her studio.
Timely piece last week in NYTimes:
A U.S. Alliance to Update the Light Bulb

We'll I'd started using compact fluorescents maybe 10 years ago, but have stuck with incandescent bulbs for the most part because of both color and dim-ablity.

Fluorescents are now "dim-able" but I've yet to purchase any, as I have some "inventory" of bulbs.

But I've also been waiting to leap-frog to LED's and started looking.
Among a few sites, found these : LED Light Bulbs

Pricey but that should start to change.
Likely makes sense for commercial use, where you have lights on for a long time, and therefore have shorter payback via energy savings.

Speaking of energy savings, slashed out electric bill downstate by turning off the water heater when I'm gone.

Whether or not C02 and "Global Warming" are a problem, the move to greener products makes sense, just to lower our own costs.

Could be interesting

Haven't dug into this enough yet, but it could be quite interesting.
Unity08: Select & Elect a Unity Ticket in the 2008 Presidential Race |

An attempt to leverage the net for politics, but running to the middle, not the edges.

As a believer in smaller is better when it comes to most government functions, and big skeptic of the power of lobbyists, I will look into this effort.
In general, I dislike national politics, even state level issues as being just a bunch of political BS.

The net may manage to change things, give the public a voice, even a shall we say ... Vote!

And 2008 will be an interesting year.
Democrats may have a hard time coming to a consensus candidate, Barak is too "green" (untested), Hillary a lighting rod and has "Bill Baggage" to contend with.
Al Gore waiting in the wings.

Republicans have no incumbent to run, and I'm not sure if they can come up with a candidate, or if they can hold on to their base in the religous right without driving off moderates.

Maybe "Unitiy '08" can be a home for devote not partisans like me

Nuclear Power Pondering

Conjunction of materials and reading

Last night, we did the "Friday Night Video Rental", tried "Ice Age / The Meltdown" and the irony was that, flipping through the channels before starting the video, I caught part of Al Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" (which I've commented before here.).

Sooo - a character in Ice Age is predicting the end of the world, that all the critters would drown. (Where was Al then?)

Anyway, some reads:
Back in '05 Peter Schwartz (Edge: PETER SCHWARTZ):

Wired 13.02: Nuclear Now!

Digging some more, found this presentation and discussion:
Long Now Discuss > View topic - 02006-01-13 > Peter Schwartz and Ralph Cavanagh

Need to do more reading, but the idea that Nuclear Power is an answer to Global Warming is compelling.

Possible top?

A Titan of Private Equity May Go Public - New York Times

When those who have made their bucks turn around and sell to the street ... maybe a sign of a top in the market.

Note that they are not selling the portfolio, but a piece of the management company.

But, with some signs of tightening in the credit markets (Japan's central bank nudging rates up, China bumps rates, and sub-prime mortgage turmoil) it may be a time for caution

Trash

Buckey Fuller said something to the effect that there is no such thing as pollution, only the mis-allocation of resources.

The end of garbage - March 19, 2007: "The end of garbageCan you imagine a world of zero waste? Cities and towns across the world - and a surprising number of companies - have adopted that goal, says Fortune's Marc Gunther
By Marc Gunther, Fortune senior writerMarch 14 2007: 6:21 AM EDT"

Gonzlaes 8 Reno 93

Politics as usual?

Published: March 24, 1993:
ATTORNEY GENERAL SEEKS RESIGNATIONS FROM PROSECUTORS - New York Times:

"Attorney General Janet Reno today demanded the prompt resignation of all United States Attorneys, leading the Federal prosecutor in the District of Columbia to suggest that the order could be tied to his long-running investigation of Representative Dan Rostenkowski, a crucial ally of President Clinton.

Jay B. Stephens, the United States Attorney for the District of Columbia, who is a Bush Administration holdover, said he had advised the Justice Department that he was within 30 days of making a 'critical decision' in the Rostenkowski case when Ms. Reno directed him and other United States Attorneys to submit their resignations, effective in a matter of days.

While prosecutors are routinely replaced after a change in Administration, Ms. Reno's order accelerated what had been expected to be a leisurely changeover. Says He Won't Resist"

and

"All 93 United States Attorneys knew they would be asked to step down, since all are Republican holdovers, and 16 have resigned so far. But the process generally takes much longer and had usually been carried out without the involvement of the Attorney General."

Conversation

Some give and take with Keith over gasoline prices and the stock market.

I obviously think that this is a much more complex situation with many other factors affecting the markets.

Modeshift : Blog Archive : Climbing Gas Prices, Slipping Dow: A Connection

Whoa ... not so fast... cont.

Looney Dunes: Whoa ... not so fast

Yesterday :
From a Rapt Audience, a Call to Cool the Hype - New York Times

Selective quotes, selective because, in my opinion, Mr. Gore's position has been well publicized.

"But part of his scientific audience is uneasy. In talks, articles and blog entries that have appeared since his film and accompanying book came out last year, these scientists argue that some of Mr. Gore’s central points are exaggerated and erroneous. They are alarmed, some say, at what they call his alarmism."

"Although Mr. Gore is not a scientist, he does rely heavily on the authority of science in “An Inconvenient Truth,” which is why scientists are sensitive to its details and claims.

Criticisms of Mr. Gore have come not only from conservative groups and prominent skeptics of catastrophic warming, but also from rank-and-file scientists like Dr. Easterbook, who told his peers that he had no political ax to grind. A few see natural variation as more central to global warming than heat-trapping gases. Many appear to occupy a middle ground in the climate debate, seeing human activity as a serious threat but challenging what they call the extremism of both skeptics and zealots."


"Some of Mr. Gore’s centrist detractors point to a report last month by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations body that studies global warming. The panel went further than ever before in saying that humans were the main cause of the globe’s warming since 1950, part of Mr. Gore’s message that few scientists dispute. But it also portrayed climate change as a slow-motion process.

It estimated that the world’s seas in this century would rise a maximum of 23 inches — down from earlier estimates. Mr. Gore, citing no particular time frame, envisions rises of up to 20 feet and depicts parts of New York, Florida and other heavily populated areas as sinking beneath the waves, implying, at least visually, that inundation is imminent."

"Geologists have documented age upon age of climate swings, and some charge Mr. Gore with ignoring such rhythms.

“Nowhere does Mr. Gore tell his audience that all of the phenomena that he describes fall within the natural range of environmental change on our planet,” Robert M. Carter, a marine geologist at James Cook University in Australia, said in a September blog. “Nor does he present any evidence that climate during the 20th century departed discernibly from its historical pattern of constant change.”

In October, Dr. Easterbrook made similar points at the geological society meeting in Philadelphia. He hotly disputed Mr. Gore’s claim that “our civilization has never experienced any environmental shift remotely similar to this” threatened change.

Nonsense, Dr. Easterbrook told the crowded session. He flashed a slide that showed temperature trends for the past 15,000 years. It highlighted 10 large swings, including the medieval warm period. These shifts, he said, were up to “20 times greater than the warming in the past century.” "

Finally :

" Biologists, too, have gotten into the act. In January, Paul Reiter, an active skeptic of global warming’s effects and director of the insects and infectious diseases unit of the Pasteur Institute in Paris, faulted Mr. Gore for his portrayal of global warming as spreading malaria.

“For 12 years, my colleagues and I have protested against the unsubstantiated claims,” Dr. Reiter wrote in The International Herald Tribune. “We have done the studies and challenged the alarmists, but they continue to ignore the facts.”"

Local vs Organic

Good piece in Time Magazine.
I rarely read it, but this one caught my eye on the newstand at the grocery (interesting juxtipostion) last week

Cover story:Eating Better Than Organic

Full printout version : Eating Better Than Organic -- Printout -- TIME

Bottom line is that Local may be the "New Organic" - why go organic if you have to ship it 1/2 way around the world, or even cross country.

Ongoing Hybrid bashing ... possible reconsideration

Post from last October (following several prior posts)

Looney Dunes: Ongoing Hybrid bashing

Then, over the weekend, there was this:
A New Battery Takes Off in a Race to Electric Cars - New York Times

A step in the right direction.

Note(s):
1) on all electric :
"To date, all-electric vehicles have failed because their batteries were inadequate. General Motors’ futuristic EV1 car of the late 1990s was doted upon by environmentally conscious drivers who admired its innovative engineering, but because the car used large, primitive nickel metal hydride batteries, its range was limited, its acceleration degraded as the batteries weakened with age, and its two-seat layout was not very comfortable for big, corn-fed North Americans.

“The problem came down to usability,” said Nick Zelenski, G.M.’s chief vehicle engineer. “You had to plan your life around when you were going to charge the EV1.” G.M. built only 1,117 of the experimental cars because it believed that American drivers would not buy such an affront to the national ideal of the open road."

2) current (sorta pun intended) Li-"ion" batteries:
"Rechargeable lithium batteries have been used in laptop computers and mobile phones since the early 1990s. (Their common name, “lithium ion batteries,” is a tautology, since all batteries conduct electric current by allowing the passage of ions between two electrodes.) But despite their lightness, rechargeable lithium batteries — which often use a compound of highly reactive cobalt oxide — have hitherto been thought impractical for transportation because they are insufficiently powerful and might, if pierced, jarred or overheated, explode or burst into flames."

Note in particular the risk parameters of batteries. Fuel burns (cars only explode in Hollywood) releasing the potential energy in a measured manner. Batteries have the potential for rapid release of their potential energy.

3) I will argue that this will reinforce my argument on longevity of hydrocarbon fuels for personal transportation, presented here:
Long Bets [ 257: Hydrocarbon fuels will be the "fuel of choice" for personal transportation for the next 50 years ]

a) greater fuel mileage will extend the resource
b) these vechiles STILL use internal combustion power to suppliment the batteries and therefore I would argue will use hydrocarbon fuels.

When I first proposed the prediction, I was challanged about the issue of hybrids, and my response was and is ... proves my point. More fuel efficent, but still hydrocarbon based fuels.

Review of Chevy "Volt" here:
Power Play - AutoWeek

Thaw

Almost 50 again today
Southerly breeze

Good Harbor Bay


More here

Tech Threads

From David's blog (isen.blog: My opening remarks at F2C: Freedom to Connect) went to Tom Evslin's site (here), interesting piece on Skype - charge telemarketers to talk to me...(here)

Somehow, this reminded me that I hadn't caught up on Cringely who goes into Google's pending takeover of the net.

OK, that reminded me that Google and Apple are getting closer Story Here

"Speaking at a technology conference in San Francisco, Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) CEO Eric Schmidt confirmed that his company is collaborating with Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) on several more projects.

His comments were in response to a question about rumors that the companies are codeveloping a tablet-style computer, according to MarketWatch.

Schmidt neither confirmed or denied that an Apple/Google tablet computer is in the works.

He did, however, state that the two companies are "doing more and more things together. We have similar goals, similar competitors."

Google's search and map functions will be included in Apple's new iPhone -- a combination iPod and smartphone -- that will be released in June.

Neither company has commented on whether or not those functions will work the same as they do on other smartphones, or if there will be additional or enhanced features."

Back to Google, and really to Yahoo ... WSJournal did a piece that AT&T doesn't need Yahoo anymore
Summary:

• The Situation: Changing economics could prompt revisions in pact between AT&T and Yahoo.

• What's at Stake: How revenue from Internet subscriptions and ads are shared.

• What's Next: Yahoo may have to sweeten its deal with AT&T, up for renewal in April 2008.

Cringely : "...Google's dominance of search and advertising is so profound that most competitors -- especially Yahoo -- would probably be better off NOT even attempting to compete and simply let Google handle search and advertising while Yahoo provides content."

Yup

And here's bit about CEO compensation:
WSJournal:

"Terry Semel, the chief executive of Yahoo Inc., got options to purchase $25.7 million of the company's stock in 2006, representing 80% of the maximum he was eligible to receive even as the firm's share price fell by more than a third during the year.


Yahoo struggled in the year as it failed to keep up with rival Google Inc. in the race for advertising dollars and lost its No. 1 ranking as the most popular Internet site to News Corp.'s MySpace. The year culminated in a restructuring that saw the departures of Chief Operating Officer Dan Rosensweig and Lloyd Braun, who headed the media group.

Yahoo's compensation committee awarded Mr. Semel a bonus of 800,000 fully vested options out of a maximum allocation of one million in 2006, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The options had an exercise price of $32.12 a share.

Mr. Semel's basic salary for the year was just $1 under a three-year deal announced in May, mirroring similar executive-pay deals at other technology companies, including Apple Inc. and Google.

The payout, however, was less than half the compensation Mr. Semel received in 2005, when Yahoo shares were trading higher. His 2005 bonus comprised about 1.3 million shares at an exercise price of $40.68, coming to a value of about $52.9 million. That bonus came on top of a basic salary of $600,000."

Damn

Enough to want to re-institute the death penality

Search

Good man murdered
Only thing is, suspect killed himself

Bob Busby, good hearted soul who almost single-handly revived an old neighborhood murdered

Damn

I knew Bob, but only a bit
That said, he was one of the nicest people I'd ever met

Damn

Now THIS could change things

WSJournal

China's finance minister confirmed a government plan to overhaul management of its $1.07 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, in a sign that the world's largest investor is developing the confidence to take greater risks with its money

Maybe why Paulson was in China?

Put pieces of the puzzle together... as this follows the "managed" break in the Shanghai "stock" market.

Note that the Chiese are good students of markets and management techniques.
They only have a few decades left before hitting the demographic wall and need to get as rich as possible as fast as possible.

Framing the issue

An occasional read, spotted this on Rudi

Problems are challenges to Giuliani and he offered some insight into how he analyzes those challenges today.

“You must govern in America now from a sense of perspective,” Giuliani said. “The president of the United States needs a sense of perspective. The perspective you need is that this is a very very strong country. We’re not in terrible, terrible trouble. Gosh, if we’re in terrible trouble the world is gone."

Goes on about how he can communicate, where George W. falls short.

If Rudi can get past the Religous Right, maybe he has a shot.

Piece goes on about how the media should help frame the issue, freedom vs. medievil misogynists and tyrants.

Colonization of England

Interesting piece on genetics of inhabitants of the British Isles
Seems that most can trace genes to a population that predates the Normans, the Anglo-Saxons, even the Celts.

A United Kingdom? Maybe - New York Times

Nurture vs Nature

Further: it would be interesting to track timing of Celts (brought agriculture?) to the Black Sea Flood of about 7,500 BC

To which we can add comments from

A Life In Books: Harold Bloom: Newsweek Periscope - MSNBC.com

"MY FIVE MOST IMPORTANT BOOKS

Shakespeare, the complete works. I won't say he "invented" us, because journalists perpetually misunderstand me on that. I'll put it more simply: he contains us. Our ways of thinking and feeling—about ourselves, those we love, those we hate, those we realize are hopelessly "other" to us—are more shaped by Shakespeare than they are by the experience of our own lives.

"The Canterbury Tales" by Geoffrey Chaucer. He gives us human beings in the round; human beings that are more than simply names upon the page. With almost every contemporary novel, the characters are names upon the page.

No Tsunami

Story on Wave Systems

That Ship Will Come in, Right? - New York Times

Made money on this puppy a couple of times.

First time was meeting Sprague Pater (Peter, Steve's Dad) at PCForum, intrigued with the idea and, since the stock was low priced, just backed up the truck and loaded up.

Did not sell at the top, but made enough that a few years later, had dinner with Peter, and introduced him to Shirley as the one that paid for decades of visits to PCForum (VBG).

Later trache was donated to Leelanau Conservancy to trigger major land aqusition deal.

All in all, a couple of nice "rides"

Ski Break

Couple hours off to get in some X country skiing



Fine except for the arthritis in my foot, every step hurt.
Ah well, nice day, sun and fresh air

More on markets

Forbes thinks Yen Carry will carry on ...

But move week before last likely not the first.

"But despite the sharp movements, analysts said that as long as Japanese rates remain relatively modest, the carry trade is likely to persist for some time, continuing to bolster international stock markets and emerging market currencies as it has over the past few year"

and

"The Chinese government is concerned that investors are not taking into account the risks of equity investments and wants to cool the market off. In America, rates on $600 billion worth of adjustable-rate mortages are due to rise, raising the risk of defaults and delinquencies. And in Japan, with the fiscal year-end of March 31 approaching, companies with operations overseas are repatriating profits, putting upward pressure on the yen"

Note that rising yen also hurts positions with "carry"

Tres Sec Paulson replys to Hillary

From "This Week" with George Stephanopoulos on ABC

Excerpt on Markets/China

STEPHANOPOULOS: One of the other factors that people have cited, in this market blip on Tuesday — Senator Clinton said it was an alarm bell about the amount of foreign debt held by China and other nations.

How big a concern is that to you?

PAULSON: George, I've spent my time looking at global capital markets. I've spent a lot of time, over my career. I think I know something about global bond markets. I've watched government bond market deliver — develop globally. And as I've worked with issuers, I always tell them it's in their best interest to have as much demand as possible; to have it be global demand, a diversity of demand.

And as I look at the demand for U.S. treasuries, I'm very pleased to see demand from all around the world; from governments, from individuals — I see that as a very positive thing.

Now, when we look at, let's take China or Japan. In China, there's a fair amount of holdings of U.S. treasuries by the government and by other individuals.

But all the Chinese holdings are not greater than the amount of Treasuries that trade in a single day in the U.S. That's how much diversity we have in our holdings.

So, to me, the key thing — it's a positive that foreign investors want to own our treasuries. Interest rates are lower, it's helping our economic growth in this country. The key thing is to keep our economy growing, to have it to continue to be the best economy in the world so foreigners will want to invest here.

And I see that as…

STEPHANOPOULOS: But isn't the flip side, though, that they're holding our economic state in their hands?

PAULSON: Well, I tell you, I don't look at it that way. We're holding our economic fate in our own hands. And if we keep this economy competitive and growing, they're going to invest here.

And let me also tell you there's great diversity. When people talk about foreign holdings, as I said, Japan is the largest holder.

If we look at all of the entities, all of the individuals, the government holdings out of Japan — you know, all of those holdings are a little bit more than the treasuries traded in one day in the U.S. A little bit more than one day.

In China, it's lees than one day. We've got great diversity in the holdings of our treasury securities, and we should be very pleased with that.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But doesn't it make it more difficult, because China and Japan together, I think, hold about $1 trillion of our debt. Doesn't it make it more difficult to negotiate with them when they're our banker?

PAULSON: I don't see it that way. The $1 trillion, we trade $500 billion a day in U.S. treasuries. That's two-days' trading in U.S. treasuries. And, and again, that's held by multiple entities in both of those countries. I look at it and say, as long as our economy is growing and we don't have enough savings to support that growth, we can be very pleased that foreign investors want to invest in our economy, have confidence in our economy, and they come to the U.S. to make their investments.

STEPHANOPOULOS: You probably know as much or more about China than any other American. You've been there more than 70 times, you're heading there again this week. How are we supposed to think about China?

Read on here ABC News: Sec. Henry Paulson: The Complete Interview

Clinton Syndrom

Politics and Markets can be a dangerous mix

Hillary sounds off on markets and China

Clip here:
Clinton sounds the China alarm as ’08 issue - Hillary Clinton News - MSNBC.com

Hints of Capital Controls on Thursday ... may have helped spook the markets.

Background
Back in the fall of 1987, the credit markets were getting nervous over James Baker jawboning the Europeans over currencies.

When asked what would happen in the off chance of a "market meltdown, the "wet behind the ears" head of the SEC, David Ruter, suggested that the markets might have to be shut down temporarily.

Well, the best way to describe this is to imagine that you are in line for movie tickets and they announce that "in case of fire, we'll lock the doors"
Time to go to the bar instead.

Now we have Hilllary, front runner for her party for President, suggesting that she could support Capital Controls.

Foreign capital comes to the US Markets because they are the safest, deepest and most liquid in the world. The American economy is strong and there are places to put your capital to work.

If you are a manager in China, where do you want to put your profits for "safe keeping"? France? Uganda? ... China? Esp. if you know that the Chinese financial system is on shaking grounds.

Today in Investor's Business Daily stock analysis and business news :

"But Clinton remains unrepentant. Faced with what she called "a slow erosion of our own economic sovereignty" from U.S. dependence on foreign debt and trade, she would restrict trade and perhaps limit access to currency for trade and investment.

This is almost unbelievable foolishness. Capital controls have been tried before — most recently in Brazil, Russia, Malaysia, Thailand, Chile and Colombia — and almost invariably with tragic economic results.

Clinton misunderstands that what's at stake here is not "debt" per se; it's foreign investment. As the chart shows, foreign, non-government holdings in our economy have soared from roughly $500 billion in 1982 to nearly $12 trillion today. That surge has created literally millions of jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars in incomes and tax revenues.

Over the same period, U.S. household wealth has exploded from $10.6 trillion to $54.1 trillion, and the economy has tripled to $13.2 trillion. This is a remarkable, unparalleled success story.

But if capital and trade controls are imposed, investors will flee, foreign trade will shrink and jobs will be lost. A study by economist Kristin Forbes of MIT found that U.S. multinational companies cut investments in foreign markets 13% to 16% if they suspect capital controls would be used.

Sadly, Clinton's brainchild seems to be the essence of Democratic policy these days — glib, shallow and showing little grasp of even basic economic principles.

As our friends at NRO Online remind us, some in the party — including Sen. Clinton — hold up Sen. Byron Dorgan's proposal to slap restrictions on the economy whenever the trade deficit exceeds 5% of GDP or foreign ownership of U.S. bonds tops 25%.

This is a recipe for stagnation, not growth. It would weaken the dollar, confuse our trading partners, wreak havoc in our markets and reverse 60 years of postwar prosperity. It deserves to be swatted down at once."

When it rains ... it pours

No blogging for a while, not much else other than repairs and backups

Wed night, laptop got dropped (nudged?) to floor - right on the power adapter fitting.
Thurs was researching repairs, starting on backups, but, if I held my toung just right, the power worked, and we were OK.

Then power goes out - OK, that happens, esp with late winter storm.
Divert to setting up generator, making the house "happy" ... but of course no internet connection.

Later in the evening, we get cable back on, and after that, we're back online.
Good

This AM, no power to the battery, scramble for a couple of hours with backups, arrange for HD to be swapped to firewire case, head to town (will in a few min.)

Hopefully we saved enough (lost some spreadsheets on old desktop which shut off instead of taking orders to fall asleep ... my fault for not saving files)

Soooo
We'll throw away most of the rest of today, likely will do work-arounds for the next several.

Good thing there are only about 1/2 dozen projects up in the air.
Better thing that I've been storing files online and working on some projects via online tools (stikipad etc)

Later...