"History is a wonderful thing, if only it was true"
-Tolstoy

Sunday, March 04, 2007

More on markets

Forbes thinks Yen Carry will carry on ...

But move week before last likely not the first.

"But despite the sharp movements, analysts said that as long as Japanese rates remain relatively modest, the carry trade is likely to persist for some time, continuing to bolster international stock markets and emerging market currencies as it has over the past few year"

and

"The Chinese government is concerned that investors are not taking into account the risks of equity investments and wants to cool the market off. In America, rates on $600 billion worth of adjustable-rate mortages are due to rise, raising the risk of defaults and delinquencies. And in Japan, with the fiscal year-end of March 31 approaching, companies with operations overseas are repatriating profits, putting upward pressure on the yen"

Note that rising yen also hurts positions with "carry"

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