The American Brand

Shirley and I caught the full interview on PBR while on the road yesterday.
Excerpt :

YouTube - Barack Obama and the American Global Image - Shashi Tharoor

Greenspan ... "Whoops"

As if bankers operate without constraints will ensure smart decisions, and assuming that competitors will not collude.

Greenspan Concedes Error on Regulation - NYTimes.com:

"A fervent proponent of deregulation during his 18-year tenure at the Fed’s helm, Mr. Greenspan has faced mounting criticism this year for having refused to consider cracking down on credit derivatives, an unchecked market whose excesses partly led to the current financial crisis."

“I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such as that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms,” Mr. Greenspan said.

Referring to his free-market ideology, Mr. Greenspan added: “I have found a flaw. I don’t know how significant or permanent it is. But I have been very distressed by that fact.”

Mr. Waxman pressed the former Fed chair to clarify his words. “In other words, you found that your view of the world, your ideology, was not right, it was not working,” Mr. Waxman said.

“Absolutely, precisely,” Mr. Greenspan replied. “You know, that’s precisely the reason I was shocked, because I have been going for 40 years or more with very considerable evidence that it was working exceptionally well.”

Simple Model

This has been around for a while, but still one of the best explanations of how the mess in subprime works... click here

The French are ... different

Clever humor/insight as to approaches to the world.

Shashi was Under-Secretary-General for Communications and Public Information, United Nations at the time of the quote.

Heard him on NPR while on road yesterday.

Shashi Tharoor - Is the United Nations Still Relevant?:
"In fact, we used to have a nasty little joke about the agreements of the Security Council on all these matters where it was said there was an argument between an American diplomat and a French diplomat and a particular problem, and the American diplomat said, 'You now how we can solve this? We can do this and this and this and we can solve it', and the French diplomat replied, 'Yes, yes, yes, that will work in practice but will it work in theory?'"

Insight - Growth in the Spring!

Being There (1979) - Memorable quotes:
"President 'Bobby': Mr. Gardner, do you agree with Ben, or do you think that we can stimulate growth through temporary incentives?
[Long pause]

Chance the Gardener: As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden.

President 'Bobby': In the garden.

Chance the Gardener: Yes. In the garden, growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again.

President 'Bobby': Spring and summer.

Chance the Gardener: Yes.

President 'Bobby': Then fall and winter.

Chance the Gardener: Yes.

Benjamin Rand: I think what our insightful young friend is saying is that we welcome the inevitable seasons of nature, but we're upset by the seasons of our economy.

Chance the Gardener: Yes! There will be growth in the spring!

Benjamin Rand: Hmm!

Chance the Gardener: Hmm!

President 'Bobby': Hm. Well, Mr. Gardner, I must admit that is one of the most refreshing and optimistic statements I've heard in a very, very long time.

[Benjamin Rand applauds]

President 'Bobby': I admire your good, solid sense. That's precisely what we lack on Capitol Hill."

Nice to have

Nice to have positions like this on one's portfolio when the market has been down.
Small company, exceptional management, headed to new all time high.
NEOG : Neogen, leader in food and animal safety products


image pulled from bigcharts.com

What if

Catching some of Gov Patterson of New York on CNBC this AM

Flash - what if Elliot Spitzer was still Governor - ouch, likely we'd see multiples of the losses we've seen so far and multiple perp-walks.

Jazz for the eyes

Image cropped from one on William Claxton After Image Gallery


William Claxton, 80, Shot 'Jazz For The Eyes' : NPR Music:
"All Things Considered, October 18, 2008 - California is the land of sunlit beaches, cars and cool jazz. They all play a part in the photography of William J. Claxton, who died in Los Angeles on Oct. 11, one day shy of his 81st birthday.

Claxton was born in Pasadena and made his name with photographs of an Oklahoma trumpet player whose career took off in California: Chet Baker. In fact, Claxton's moody images helped propel Baker to stardom."

"Claxton called his photographs "jazz for the eyes" and likened his camera to the jazz musician's axe. He told music journalist Don Heckman, "It's the tool that you would like to be able to ignore, but you have to have it to convey your thoughts and whatever you want to express through it."

read on

Images and nice soundtrack here:
William Claxton Photography

Peggy Noonan on the debate

I tend to agree...
Race to the bottom.

It'll be an interesting few years coming up.

Declarations - WSJ.com:
"There is now something infantilizing about this election. Mr. Obama continued to claim he will remove wasteful spending by sitting down with the federal budget and going through it 'line by line.' This is absurd, and he must know it. Mr. McCain continued to vow he will 'balance the budget' in the next four years. Who believes that? Does even he?"

Slippery Slope

Looney Dunes: Looney Dunes: Interesting Prediction:

"Will we see it under $100 soon?" (Sept 2, 08)

Guess so:



Longer term

Words of Wisdom

Op-Ed Contributor - Buy American. I Am. - NYTimes.com:

"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now." ... Warren Buffett

Thougth So

BBC NEWS | Health | Internet use 'good for the brain':

"For middle-aged and older people at least, using the internet helps boost brain power, research suggests.

A University of California Los Angeles team found searching the web stimulated centres in the brain that controlled decision-making and complex reasoning."


Tip of the hat to Doc Searls

F-king Genius's

Brilliant investment technique, concentrate all your holdings in a company you run, then add to risk via margin.

While I use margin, I have a bit of diversification.
Lesson - managers egos can drive them to severe errors in thinking.

Margin Calls Prompt Sales, and Drive Shares Even Lower - NYTimes.com:

"“That suggests that there may be other cases where chief executives who are controlling shareholders or the company’s major shareholder with the same problem,” Mr. Vogel said. “These people present themselves as financially savvy and not subject to great risk associated with debt. But in fact it seems that that is not always the case.”"

Such as :

On Friday, Aubrey K. McClendon, the chief executive of Chesapeake Energy, issued a statement saying he had been forced to sell all of his 33.5 million shares in Chesapeake because of a margin call. And Sumner M. Redstone, the chairman of Viacom and CBS, disclosed that he would sell $400 million in shares in those companies to pay down a loan.

Major Investment no-no

Well, since I didn't go to cash at the top, or anywhere near it, take my advice with a large grain of salt.
But, that said, I agree with the idea of holding positions for the long term.

What this piece also misses is the tax cost of market timing.
I've got a few losses, but very few.
Likely will do some tax trades before the end of the year.

Your Money - Switching to Cash May Feel Safe, but Risks Remain - NYTimes.com:

"By fleeing for the comfort of safe and insured, however, investors with a time horizon beyond a few years may be doing real damage to their long-term finances. If you’re tempted to make a big move to cash right now, you’re doing something called market timing. It’s an implied statement that you’ve figured out the right moment to get out of stocks — and will also know the right time to get back in."

Maybe... just maybe

Those With Sense of History May Find It’s Time to Invest - NYTimes.com:

"The four most dangerous words for investors are: This time is different."

Flashback

I recalled the other day, putting together HeathKit radio's with my father

I don't think that the shortwave was this model, but close
Learned a bit about assembly, a little about electronics, circuits, and picked up sputnik signals (late 1957)



Dad : not sure that I ever thanked you for this experience

Great App

Could be truly great app
Filter's your outgoing emails when you might be guilty of EUI
Emailing Under the Influence


Google launches Mail Goggles to save you from yourself | Webware : Cool Web apps for everyone - CNET

Perspective

Good perspective

As Dire as the Times May Seem, History Isn't About to Repeat Itself - WSJ.com: "Remember that we've been through tough times before. The Internet bust was almost as extraordinary as the 1929 crash: Between early 2000 and late 2002, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index fell almost 80%. You may recall the speculative real-estate lending that resulted in almost 2,000 bank failures between 1987 and 1991, and the Dow plunging 22.6% in one day in 1987. While none of those were pleasant, you're still here.

Stay the course. You know this, but it's a time to return to the basics. Live within your means. Reduce your debt. Keep saving -- and investing. When the cycle turns, and it will, you'll be glad you did."

Any Correlation?

Could it be?

Newbie president with a congress that are charter members of the "Don't have a Clue Club" ?




Or has Atlas shrugged?

Skip the Election

Results are foregone conclusion and the Dems are justifying increased deficit.

Condemn the Bush deficit?
Naw, just justify the Obama deficit...

Op-Ed Contributor - Saved by the Deficit? - NYTimes.com: "Both presidential candidates have been criticized for failing — at Tuesday’s debate and previously — to name any promises or plans they’re going to have to scrap because of the bailout and the failing economy. That criticism is unwarranted. The assumption that we are about to have a rerun of 1993 — when Bill Clinton, newly installed as president, was forced to jettison much of his agenda because of a surging budget deficit — may well be mistaken."

Efficent Market ... yeah right

About all the efficient market and random walk theories
Bah Humbug

Note that I did start buying today ... small

Forget Logic; Fear Appears to Have Edge - NYTimes.com:

"Anybody searching for cause-and-effect logic in the daily gyrations of the market will be disappointed — even if the overarching problem of a crisis of confidence in the global economy is now becoming clear.

Instead, the market has become a case study in the psychology of crowds, many experts say. In normal times, it runs on a healthy mix of fear and greed. But fear now seems to rule, with investors often exhibiting a Wall Street version of the fight-or-flight mechanism — they are selling first, and asking questions later."

denouement

Doc on the "debate": Post-debate thoughtdown

I turned in after about 20 min.

Personally, I think it's over for McCain, but also that the "new" is wearing off Obama.

Either gets a crappy economy
Not a "Great Depression" but not "Happy Days" either

Add in a dysfunctional Congress and either may well be a one term holder.

Just a marker

Bought some Irwin Financial (IFC)
Started doing business with them this year, and I like them

Near the bottom
Pure speculation

We'll see what happens

Trust me ...

From a broadcast I caught on NPR this AM
History of distrust in media and government adds to crisis of confidence, as exhibited on Wall St. and in the banking community.

Who dealt this mess?

On The Media: Transcript of "Past is Present" (October 3, 2008):

October 03, 2008

"During The Great Depression, Franklin Delano Roosevelt told Americans that their faith and confidence was key to recovery. Is that the case this time around? Columbia University Provost and historian Alan Brinkley discusses some lessons of past crises."

Perceptions on ideas

Excellent post

Conservatism overshoots its limit

By Gideon Rachman

Published: October 6 2008 19:13 | Last updated: October 6 2008 19:13

The market for ideas – like the market for shares – always overshoots. Ideas become fashionable and get pushed to their logical conclusion and beyond, as their backers succumb to “irrational exuberance”. Then comes the crash.

What we are experiencing now is the bust that has followed the 30-year bull run in conservative ideas that began with the Thatcher-Reagan revolution of 1979-80.

You can get a sense of how quickly the intellectual atmosphere has changed by picking up a copy of Alan Greenspan’s The Age of Turbulence, which was published last year. Mr Greenspan, head of the Federal Reserve from 1987 until 2006, heaped praise on the magic of financial markets and decried the foolishness of those who called for more regulation: “Why do we wish to inhibit the pollinating bees of Wall Street?” he asked rhetorically. Why indeed?

Mr Greenspan was considered such a guru that last year Senator John McCain suggested putting him in charge of a committee on tax reform, adding: “If he’s alive or dead it doesn’t matter. If he’s dead, just prop him up and put some dark glasses on him.” But Mr Greenspan’s reputation is now on the slide and Mr McCain has reinvented himself as a champion of regulation – and is denouncing the “corruption and unbridled greed that has caused a crisis on Wall Street”.

This kind of ideological whiplash is what happens when an intellectual bull market crashes. The current financial crisis can be traced to three of the central ideas of the Reagan-Thatcher era: the promotion of home ownership, financial deregulation and a fervent faith in the market. Each of these ideas did sterling service for 30 years, increasing prosperity and freedom. But pushed too far – and combined – they have created a disaster.

The subprime mortgages that are at the heart of the current financial crisis expanded the dream of home ownership to people who could not afford the financial burdens they were taking on. In April 2005 Mr Greenspan praised subprime mortgages for helping to widen home ownership and hailed them as “representative of the market responses that have driven the financial services industry throughout the history of our country”.

Investment bankers, the shock- troops of the Reagan-Thatcher revolution, were allowed to bet their banks on this new market, because regulators and politicians believed so firmly in the magical and self- regulating qualities of the market.

The same process of intellectual overshoot happened with other signature ideas of the Reagan- Thatcher era: privatisation, scepticism about environmentalism and democracy promotion.

When Thatcherites first mooted privatisation it was derided as an impractical dream. But early triumphs with airlines and telecommunications in Britain created a vogue that spread round the world. That emboldened the privatisers to take on new and harder challenges, such as the UK’s railways. But failure there led to a backlash.

Similarly, when the conservative era started, foreign military engagements were out of fashion in the west. But Britain’s Falklands war and the American invasion of Grenada began to change this. During the 1990s, a series of successful military interventions – the first Gulf war, Bosnia, Kosovo, Sierra Leone – made Anglo-American political leaders much more relaxed about the use of military force. Too relaxed. The horrors that have followed the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan will mean that the intellectual pendulum will now swing in the opposite direction.

The idea of democracy promotion has gone through a similar boom-and-bust cycle. The collapse of the Soviet empire in 1989 was regarded as the ultimate vindication of the rightwing universalism that argued that all people did indeed desire democratic, free-market systems. Advocates of the globalisation of democracy became much more assertive. A policy of providing moral support to anti-Soviet dissidents in Europe in the 1980s had, by 2003, transmogrified into a policy of exporting democracy by force of arms to the Middle East.

Once again, a successful idea has been pushed to its logical conclusion – and beyond. And once again an intellectual backlash has begun. David Cameron, the leader of Britain’s Conservatives, captured the new conventional wisdom when he said recently: “We should accept that we cannot impose democracy at the barrel of a gun. We cannot drop democracy from 10,000 feet.”

Both Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher favoured growth over greenery. Mrs Thatcher hailed “the great car-owning democracy” and Reagan mused that trees were a major source of pollution. But in Britain – and, to a lesser extent, the US – climate change has turned conservatives green with anxiety. Mr Cameron, a reliable intellectual weather-vane, ostentatiously cycles to work and has adopted a tree as the symbol of the new Tory party. Mr McCain takes climate change very seriously.

The ideological roots of the conservative era lay in a reaction to the excesses of the Keynesian consensus. Now that the intellectual cycle has swung so decisively against the rightwing ideas of the Reagan-Thatcher era, it is bound to overshoot in the other direction. The joys of government regulation will quickly pall. In a few years’ time, nostalgia will set in for the go-go years on Wall Street and for the bracing moral certainties of neoconservatism.

Audacious intellectual investors should now be sniffing around. Quite soon ideas such as deregulation and democracy promotion will be a buy.

End of the Euro ?

One currency, with 27 governments
And while the US Congress looks messy ...



As screwed up as things are in the credit markets and with the US in the middle of a rare political season ( no incumbents at the top of the ticket ) markets still prefer the dollar.

note: chart source : http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/Chart.html

Moonset

shot about an hour ago, 9:25 to be exact
hand-held
clear autumn night, quarter moon setting

Handy Dandy

Spent time today helping Shirley with fall garden clean
Grass's and grass type plants get trimmed back
Tried this
Made smaller grasses a breeze
For the big one ( over about 6 ft ) I cinch with tie-down's then use chain saw



Black & Decker Power Tools: "7.2 Volt Cordless Shear / Shrubber

7.2 Volt Cordless Shear / Shrubber
Model # SSC1000
Ergonomic, Well Balanced Design Provides Superior Comfort and Control During Use
Interchangeable Blade System Allows Easy Conversion From Grass Shear to Detail Shrubber for Versatile Trimming
7.2 Volt Rechargeable Battery Delivers More Power and Longer Runtime
Precision Sharpened 4' Shear Blade and 6' Shrubber Blade Deliver Cleaner Faster Cutting

Observations

Roger on the Veep "debate"

You didn't ask about the debate, but... - Roger Ebert's Journal: "...some observations about what we observed Thursday night. They are not political. They involve such matters as body language, facial expression and vocal tone. These are legitimate subjects for a film critic. As Patrick Goldstein wrote recently in the Los Angeles Times: 'In some ways film critics are probably better equipped to assess the political theater of today's presidential campaigns, since our campaigns are -- as has surely been obvious for some time -- far more about theater and image creation than politics.' I would like to discuss the vice presidential debate as theater."

whoops

Prior post

physiology?
The one reader that follows my blather caught this
Although it could apply to gnomes, the spellcheck should have given

psychology

As for gnomes
http://looneydunes.blogspot.com/2005/10/strange-formation.html#comments

Efficent Markets ... not

Fits my thinking
Markets run on physiology, not always facts.
This is why "rocket science" always fail in the end

Op-Ed Contributor - This Economy Does Not Compute - Op-Ed - NYTimes.com:

"Certainly, markets have internal dynamics. They’re self-propelling systems driven in large part by what investors believe other investors believe; participants trade on rumors and gossip, on fears and expectations, and traders speak for good reason of the market’s optimism or pessimism. It’s these internal dynamics that make it possible for billions to evaporate from portfolios in a few short months just because people suddenly begin remembering that housing values do not always go up.

Really understanding what’s going on means going beyond equilibrium thinking and getting some insight into the underlying ecology of beliefs and expectations, perceptions and misperceptions, that drive market swings.

Surprisingly, very few economists have actually tried to do this, although that’s now changing — if slowly — through the efforts of pioneers who are building computer models able to mimic market dynamics by simulating their workings from the bottom up."

Politics

CNBC's Joe Kernen

"You have to be crazy to be a politician, so how can you expect them to do anything productive?"

Op-Ed Columnist - Revolt of the Nihilists - Op-Ed - NYTimes.com:

"House Republicans led the way and will get most of the blame. It has been interesting to watch them on their single-minded mission to destroy the Republican Party. Not long ago, they led an anti-immigration crusade that drove away Hispanic support. Then, too, they listened to the loudest and angriest voices in their party, oblivious to the complicated anxieties that lurk in most American minds.

Now they have once again confused talk radio with reality."

Interesting comment from Doc's sister, Jan:
Doc Searls Weblog : The 2012 campaign

Dr Doom turns bullish ?

Maybe, maybe not
Marc Farber on CNBC last Fri

Video - CNBC.com

Arrgh

The right is driving me left?
Rarely do I find mys elf in agreement with Krugman

But after the brilliant House Vote (not!)

But what are we to expect of Congress?
In a political year - politics are more important than the economy ?

OK, we are a banana republic - Paul Krugman - Op-Ed Columnist - New York Times Blog:
"So what we now have is non-functional government in the face of a major crisis, because Congress includes a quorum of crazies and nobody trusts the White House an inch.
As a friend said last night, we’ve become a banana republic with nukes."

Rock my world

Hobby interest in geology ... this is cool.
Core of the North American Craton.

Rocks May Be Oldest on Earth, Scientists Say - NYTimes.com:

"A swath of bedrock in northern Quebec may be the oldest known piece of the earth’s crust."

Nuvvuagittuq supracrustal belt,Ungava Peninsula, North East Coast of Hudson Bay.
A few degrees East of Due North of here.

Should be centered here

May be 4.28 Billion years old.
Photo NYTimes

Politics, or "Thanks Joe"

Sent the following to both Democratic and Republican National parties

---
This message has been sent to the DNC

"Bailout"


Farce of Congress on the "bailout"
I hereby call on all members of Congress to resign

Neither party deserves to lead or even participate in the current situation

We need, as Jefferson foresaw, a "republican" Senate, and a "democratic"
House

Currently we have neither, just a bunch of political hacks with open pockets

I say fie on both parties, both houses

---
Of course my message got a serious read
So far, no reply from Republicans, but did get this from Democrats :

From: Joe Biden democraticparty@democrats.org
Date: September 26, 2008 5:30:10 PM EDT
Subject: Tonight's debate
To: jthoagland@voyager.net
Reply-To: democraticparty@democrats.org

Friend --

Now that John McCain has decided to participate in tonight's debate, don't forget to tune in and watch at 9:00 p.m. EDT.

This is a great opportunity to come together with your friends and family and hear Barack's plan to take our country in a fundamentally different direction.

But before you watch tonight's historic debate, there's something just as important that you can do right now.

I'm about to make a big request -- and I wouldn't ask if it weren't so important.

In the final weeks of this campaign, supporters like you will be traveling to the nearest battleground state to do the kind of work that will decide this election -- knocking on doors, talking to undecided voters, and getting out the vote on Election Day.

Will you sign up to travel to a battleground state and spend one, two or even three weeks helping to win this election?

Face-to-face contact with voters is the single most effective way to deliver the votes we need to win.

It may be a tight race, but we have something John McCain doesn't: a whole lot of passion and enthusiasm for change. I've seen it in the towns and cities I've visited in every corner of the country.

But it's up to each of us to make sure we turn this energy into votes on November 4th.

Don't let this election be decided by political stunts or distractions. Join your fellow supporters, roll up your sleeves, and help carry this campaign to victory.

Make a difference by traveling to a state where the race is extremely close and help put us over the top:

http://my.barackobama.com/driveforchange

Supporters like you are the only reason we've come as far as we have.

Now, we're counting on you to get us the rest of the way.

Thanks for everything you're doing,

Joe

---

Nice to be listened to

Throw 'em all out

"Republicans" and "Democrats"

Throw them all out, sweep the Capitol clean and start new

Get "Real" republican Senate - wise men (and women) with a check on a democratic House.

This game of election year chicken is just plain chicken-shit.

Hellfire and Damnation on both "parties" and all of the influence peddlers.

Talks Implode During a Day of Chaos; Fate of Bailout Plan Remains Unresolved - NYTimes.com: "
“If money isn’t loosened up, this sucker could go down,” President Bush declared Thursday as he watched the $700 billion bailout package fall apart before his eyes, according to one person in the room.

It was an implosion that spilled out from behind closed doors into public view in a way rarely seen in Washington."

Kudos to Bill Gross

Saw Bill make the offer on CNBC about 2:00 PM

Managing the Bailout - He’d Do It for Nothing - NYTimes.com: 

"One of the many concerns expressed on Capitol Hill this week about the Treasury Department’s $700 billion rescue plan was how to keep the Wall Street firms that helped to create the crisis from making a killing if they are hired to help contain it.

William H. Gross, the manager of the country’s largest bond mutual fund, has a solution for that: He is offering to do it free."

Perfect Storm

Watching Bernake before Senate committee

Financial crisis coming so close to the election ... Perfect Storm

Politicians given a trainload of red meat just in time to make an impression in the press.

And we hardly hear anything about the Presidential Campaigns

BTW - right now, it's Ron (abolish the Federal Reserve) Paul

A bit later - at least one good suggestion : gains from handling assets (selling at a profit) should be used to reduce debt, not given to politicians for more spending.

Bailout - cont.

Follow up on the bailout BS
Best for the government to buy at market price, wait, then sell at a better price later.

Buy low, sell high

BTW Warren Buffett is saying the same thing right now

Economic Scene - Issue Is Payback, Not Bailout - NYTimes.com:

"The first thing to understand is that a bailout plan doesn’t have to cost anywhere close to $700 billion, so long as it’s designed well. The $700 billion number that you see everywhere is an estimate of how much the government would spend to buy deteriorating assets now held by banks. Eventually, the government will turn around and sell these assets, for a price almost certain to be greater than zero. So this $700 billion is very different from $700 billion spent on a war or on Medicare."

Follow your own rules

Money Market Funds woes - background

Self explanatory

Fund That Broke the Buck Didn't Follow Its Own Advice - WSJ.com:

"More than a year before it 'broke the buck' with losses that spread chaos through the financial system last week, the Reserve Primary Fund began loading up on a type of short-term debt that the money-market fund had long shunned.

Even as Bruce Bent, the fund's founder, told shareholders in a July 2008 letter that the fund had 'unwavering discipline focused on protecting your principal,' Reserve was gobbling up commercial paper. By May of this year, 54% of the fund's holdings were in commercial paper, up from 0.9% about a year earlier. Exposure to drab but safe certificates of deposit plunged.

While the run on money funds that was ignited by the fund's losses has eased, Mr. Bent's failure to follow his own advice on the virtues of conservative investing is having catastrophic consequences for Reserve's money-market funds, managed by Reserve Management Co.

The firm lost 90% of its assets, which had fallen to $8.5 billion as of Monday, down from nearly $86 billion at the start of September, according to iMoneyNet Inc. Reserve faces at least two lawsuits over its disclosure of losses on soured Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. securities and indefinite suspension of further redemptions."

Bailout ... maybe not

Important point is that government will buy up paper from banks, but may be able to sell these assets into the market in the future. 

Mark to market means that if institution A is distressed and has to sell assets, at any price, institution B,  which may be stronger, has to write down similar assets.

If the government can buy for say, 60 cents on the dollar, but later sell for 80 cents. The government might even make money.

Question is, how to keep the profits out of the hands of politicians.

FT.com / Comment & analysis - Dollar rally halted on debt concerns:

"The de facto nationalisation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac made implicit guarantees explicit and doubled the US government’s gross liabilities, to just over 80 per cent of gross domestic product. This is substantial, even compared with highly indebted Europe and Japan.

A huge budget deficit is set to raise federal debt further. Among other rescue measures, the $85bn cost for the American International Group bail-out and the $700bn for the proposed fund to buy up toxic assets will weigh on federal debt. Yet the overall cost of the crisis to US taxpayers is not known, nor is there any alternative to government intervention at this juncture. An enormous bill looks likely.

In the long run, however, the net impact on federal debt will be much smaller than the gross sums, as few of the assets now purchased will prove worthless. Nevertheless, government finances will be more constrained than previously expected. Proposed tax cuts and spending plans by the presidential candidates look more implausible by the day."

Complexity

I concur, and it's time to get back to "real world" finance.

The time for "my computer is smarter than yours" trading is over.

Experts: No Quick Fix on Crisis - WSJ.com: 

"Nancy Peretsman, of investment bank Allen & Co., said the crisis exposed the dangers of not understanding complex businesses. 'We've grown these institutions that are very hard for their boards of directors to understand, very hard for their employees to understand,' as well as difficult to fathom for their accountants and shareholders, she said. 'We've gotten to a point of creating something that's incomprehensible.'"

Patience

Sweet deal, 10% yield, plus warrants... nice

Goldman to Raise Capital, With $5 Billion From Buffett - NYTimes.com: "Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate run by Mr. Buffett, will receive perpetual preferred shares in Goldman, said the spokesman, Lucas Van Praag. The preferred stock will pay a 10 percent dividend.

Goldman will also issue $2.5 billion in common shares.

In addition, Berkshire Hathaway will receive warrants to buy $5 billion in common stock at a strike price of $115 a share, which are exercisable at any time in a five-year period. Goldman shares closed Tuesday at $125.05, up $4.27."

Is it or isn't it - the end of the world?

So last weekend, they give up on the Investment Banking Model.

Maybe more "rational" activity on the street - at least for a while.

Shift for Goldman and Morgan Marks the End of an Era - NYTimes.com:

"Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the last big independent investment banks on Wall Street, will transform themselves into bank holding companies subject to far greater regulation, the Federal Reserve said Sunday night, a move that fundamentally reshapes an era of high finance that defined the modern Gilded Age."

Then there are the "little guys"
From today's WSJournal:

"Don't tell these guys that the investment-banking model is finished.

While the biggest U.S. players are exiting from the pure-play investment-banking scene, about a dozen smaller investment banks remain. Analysts expect them to survive and keep the stand-alone business model alive, albeit at a much more modest level than on Wall Street.

Institutions, such as Piper Jaffray Cos., Minneapolis; Raymond James Financial Inc., St. Petersburg, Fla.; Thomas Weisel Partners Group Inc., San Francisco, and Jefferies Group Inc., New York, have a different business strategy that relies less on risk-taking than that of the more-prominent investment-banking firms.
...
Some analysts suggested that these boutique investment banks resemble in some ways the businesses that Goldman and Morgan Stanley had 25 years ago, when they were much smaller private partnerships. The focus was advising on mergers and acquisitions and stocks and bond underwriting. Only later did the larger investment banks begin to rely on prime-brokerage services to hedge funds and proprietary trading to power their earnings.

For the most part, Fox-Pitt's Mr. Trone says, the smaller firms don't participate in these higher margin but more volatile businesses. The result is less explosive profitability but cleaner balance sheets. For one, the smaller firms typically have leverage at a rate of about one or two times to 1, says Mr. Ryan. That compares with more risky borrowing rates of 25-to-1 or 30-to-1 at Wall Street firms."

Saw the news today ... oh boy

Spent part of the afternoon with Fritz
In Lansing for weekend, and got this just before coming downstate

"At Fritz' doctor appointment yesterday, he was told there is nothing more they can do and there is no need for him to return to the doctor. Fritz and Tina are working with Hospice (for approx. 1-1/2 weeks) and they have distributed morphine. Fritz is loosing significant control of his left side and is struggling with his fear and feelings at this time."


In short - DAMNIT
Good "kid" (Ok so he's 41 or so, I've know hinm since he was about 5)
Sometimes "the son I never had" but only sometimes

All I can say is the he knows (approximate) time, most of the rest of us don't

Cool thing : family polished up one of the racers, and it sits in the living room (my girls might recall that I did same with one back in the early 70's)

Waves of remorse
Sadness

Life goes on

Sorry to miss today

Pre market open thoughts

Paulson runs the show

1) Bear run on Goldman pisses him off (he came to Treasury from Goldman), he goes nuclear on shorters (via SEC)

2) Paulson know where all the levers are

3) Paulson let Lehman fail to put fear of god on the street

4) superb timing - Friday, option expiration
This adds to volatility and will likely further juice the market

So, who was behind the raid?
Overseas interests - possible, but sorta Financial Tom Clancy stuff
Hubris - most likely - and why Lehman went down, maybe AIG as well
Political ? did anyone want to make the Administration look even worse?
Nah

Likely just a combination of events and factors

Going forward, the financial will have changed, and, to my mind, for the better.
Time to pay attention to real world business, not obscure derivatives and instruments to removed from reality.

Sharing of risk is good, creating unnecessary risk is not.
Fee based trading is highly questionable.
Fee for true service is OK, fee for sake of fees causes problems.

Closing prediction - I expect some hedge funds to fold this weekend

End of the World ... Posponded

Carpet Bombing the markets

Sec bans Short Selling of financial institutions


LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission early Friday issued an emergency order prohibiting short selling in financial companies. The regulator said it was acting in concert with the U.K.'s Financial Services Authority, which made a similar ban on Thursday. The SEC said the action was taken "to protect the integrity and quality of the securities market and strengthen investor confidence." The order halts short selling in 799 financial institutions, the SEC said. It is effective immediately and will end on Oct. 2

End of the world

Meltdown on the street.
Last March, it was Bear Sterns, toast and the handwriting was on the wall.

The discount window was opened for investment bankers ... whoops. Take government money and you get government oversight.

No longer would Wall St. be as much fun ... nor as lucrative.

Some learned, and some didn't
Lehman for one, Dick Fuld (CEO) chose to play chicken with Hank Paulson (Sec of Treas) ...
and lost.
Merril Lynch was swept up by Bank of America, now Morgan Stanly is under attack (from short sellers)

So what gives?

I question the model of Investment Banking.
Many companies don't need their services, they are sitting on plenty of cash.
Shops like Lehman ended up trading obscure instruments that often were so strange that almost nobody really knew what they were.

As one contact told me "every financial disaster always can be traced to group think"

Is there a good reason for Investment Banking in today's financial world.
Yes, but likely much smaller than just a few years ago.

Here's some more insight into the Credit Crisis
Credit and blame | The Economist

FT.com / Columnists / Martin Wolf - The end of lightly regulated finance has come far closer

FT.com / Comment & analysis / Comment - Modern history’s greatest regulatory failure: "Modern history’s greatest regulatory failure

By Roger Altman"

What's brewing, restrictions on trades, restrictions on shorts
Note that I believe in shorting, but the old way, on upticks, with borrowed shares.

Self Blogrolling

Looney Dunes:

Will we see it under $100 soon?
Will this affect the Election?

That was on Sept 2

This AM, trading just over $91
This is post Hurricane Ike that slammed into the Galveston area.

Time Change

For some time, I've wondered about the business model.
Investment banks have gone from capital raising to trading increasingly obscure instruments.

FT.com / In depth - Investment banks’ future questioned:

"Not surprisingly, the crisis has once again raised serious questions about the viability of investment banks that are not part of a larger institution.

“This is a tough time to be an investment bank,” a senior executive at a US commercial bank said on Monday. “Given the events of the past few months, it is difficult to argue that it is better to be monoline at anything, be it investment banking, credit cards or insurance.”

"

Panic?

Likely closer to time to buy than time to sell
Posting from WSJournal, although it may disappear in time

I concur - and have not been interested in fiancial stocks for quite some time.

They are a good place to be when rates are falling, but not otherwise.

Big part of the problem is that these companies have had to try to create a reason to exist, and created products that nobody understood.

Layer on borrowing from the government (FED opened the discount window after Bear Sterns) and you get government oversight.

Life goes on, banks fail, folks still buy cereal

R.O.I. - WSJ.com:

"But the reality is that the banking sector is not America. Wall Street is not America. Things may turn down for a while and times may get tougher. But life, work and the economy will go on -- even without Lehman Brothers. And this is not so new after all.

Yes the news is scary but don't panic.

The collapse of Barings in 1994, Long Term Capital Management in 1998, 9/11, and the WorldCom panic of 2002: These things happen quite often. And when you are slap bang in the middle of them, they always feel terrifying.

Someone in finance said to me quite casually the other day that this was 'much more terrifying than 9/11.' Really? Are people kidding? Right now, there is no reason to speculate on banking stocks. There never was."

Bonfire of the Vanities

Never did like Lehman, too hard core, money oriented, fee driven, sky high levered (reports of 40:1).

Played chicken with Paulson and lost.
They had months to work at cleaning up their own mess.
Goodbye "too big to fail"

No tears here.

AIG ... something for Warren Buffet???

Lehman Files for Bankruptcy; Merrill to Be Sold

"In one of the most dramatic days in Wall Street’s history, Merrill Lynch agreed to sell itself on Sunday to Bank of America for roughly $50 billion to avert a deepening financial crisis, while another prominent securities firm, Lehman Brothers, filed for bankruptcy protection and hurtled toward liquidation after it failed to find a buyer."

Never did like him

Back in '99, after a successful season for Mich State, but before the "Citrus Bowl" he bailed for a job at LSU.
Struck me as disloyal and classless.

Also, the few times I saw him on the traditional "coach show" for local TV, I don't recall him smiling.

Following has a bunch on his contract at "Bama"

Op-Extra Guest Columnist - The Throwback - Nick Saban’s Fine Print - Series - NYTimes.com:

snippet - much more in the piece

"Nick Saban also gets bonuses if his players do what they should presumably be doing as students at the University of Alabama:actually graduate. But since we all know that doesn’t happen nearly as much as it should, Nick Saban gets a little push. If the team’s graduation rate is in the top fifty percent of teams in the conferencence, he gets $50,000; if the graduation rate is in the top 25 percent, he gets $100,000."

Flashbacks

Nada on the telly tonight so we flipped through some of our (unopened) DVD's

Settled on ... The Johnny Cash Show (suppose I could link to Amazon, but not now)

Rolled through the first season (1969, a year of turmoil)
From first show with Dylan, through Sachmo, Stevie Wonder, James Taylor, Pete Seeger, Marty Robbins, Carter Family, Waylon Jennings, CCR, Neil Young, Tammy Wynette, George Jones and others ... whooee

Flashback City
And we only got through the first disc, more to come

I recall friends who refused to watch the first weeks, writing him off as a hick/redneck singer
Well, so glad I got to see most of the shows, and this collection is wonderful, benchmark performances for me.

Dylan/Cash duet of Girl from the North Country trough Bad Moon Rising (CCR), Stand by your Man, Long Black Veil (Joni Mitchell), Brown Eyed Hansom Man (Waylon Jennings)

Good stuff

Looney Dunes: Interesting Prediction

Looney Dunes: Interesting Prediction:

"Interesting Prediction
I agree, just a question of timing and peak price

From June 30th:
Oil Prices: Wilbur Ross: Run-Up in Oil Prices Is a Bubble - Futures and Commodities * US * News * Story - CNBC.com:

"The dramatic rise in oil prices is a bubble, famous turnaround investor Wilbur Ross told CNBC Monday, noting that there is no apparent supply problem with crude."

At the time Spot Crude was trading near $145
This morning, post Gustav fears, it's $108

Will we see it under $100 soon?
Will this affect the Election?

Politics

Dipping my toe into politics, just passing along some interesting comments

Doc Searls Weblog : It’s the Mind, stupid

"George Lakoff:

…the choice of Sarah Palin as their vice presidential candidate reflects their expert understanding of the political mind and political marketing. Democrats who simply belittle the Palin choice are courting disaster. It must be taken with the utmost seriousness…

And
David Brooks - What the Palin Pick Says - Op-Ed - NYTimes.com

John McCain is not a normal conservative. He has instincts, but few abstract convictions about the proper size of government. He’s a traditionalist, but is not energized by the social conservative agenda. ... a McCain administration would not be like a Bush administration.

The main axis in McCain’s worldview is not left-right. It’s public service versus narrow self-interest. Throughout his career, he has been drawn to those crusades that enabled him to launch frontal attacks on the concentrated powers of selfishness — whether it was the big money donors who exploited the loose campaign finance system, the earmark specialists in Congress like Alaska’s Don Young and Ted Stevens, the corrupt Pentagon contractors or Jack Abramoff.

So the slam dunk Democrat win, the virulent anti-Bush, Dems can't loose election may get more interesting after all.

Evidence of close race is here:
IEM 2008 US Presidential Election Vote Share Market Price Graph

Downside, Upside

Just don't rely on politicians as weather forcasters
Gustav makes landfall, drops to Cat 2 storm

Three years ago, Katrina was Cat 5

Gustav Threatens New Orleans, "The Mother Of All Storms": "'It's amazing. It makes me feel really good that so many people are saying, 'We as Americans, we as the world, have to get this right this time,'' New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said late Sunday. 'We cannot afford to screw up again.'"

Maybe Gustav is "grandson of all storms?"

Blogrolling

Doc on some Hurricane trackin

Getting Gustav

Vegetarianism

Reported on Meet the Press
McCain's nominated VP, Sarah Palin, sports the following bumper sticker:

Sad passing

One of the great drivers passes


Phil Hill, a Racing Legend at Odds With the Sport at Times, Is Dead at 81
... a reserved Californian who became a gifted race-car driver and the only U.S.-born driver to win the Formula One international auto-racing championship, died Thursday. He was 81.

Hill died at Community Hospital of the Monterey Peninsula of complications from Parkinson's disease, said John Lamm, a close friend who is also editor-at-large of Road & Track magazine.

Gridlock

One reason that Wind will take a while to become useful for power

The Energy Challenge - Wind Energy Bumps Into Power Grid’s Limits - Series - NYTimes.com:

 "The dirty secret of clean energy is that while generating it is getting easier, moving it to market is not."

The power grid can't handle the loads

Aw Shucks

Frankly, I was amazed that this stuff sold
Well, maybe I shouldn't have been amazed ... people will buy anything, esp. if it makes them "sexy"
---

August 27, 2008, 3:43 pm Fraudulent Male Enhancement Drug Gets Company Founder 25 Yrs. Posted by Dan Slater In Cincinnati, the marketing of a male sexual enhancement product called Enzyte, which reportedly used ads featuring “Smiling Bob,” a happy man with an exaggerated smile (pictured), has led to a whopping jail sentence for the founder of Berkeley Premium Nutraceuticals.

Today, U.S. District Judge S. Arthur Spiegel sentenced Steve Warshak to 25 years in prison after he was convicted in February on 93 counts of conspiracy, fraud and money laundering. (WorldCom’s Bernie Ebbers got 25 years, while Enron’s Jeff Skilling got 24 years and four months.) Here’s the AP story.

Federal prosecutors accused the company of bilking customers out of $100 million through a series of deceptive ads, manipulated credit card transactions and refusal to accept returns or cancel orders. Judge Spiegel ordered the company, along with other defendants, to forfeit more than $500 million — a figure based on how much Warshak and the company took in.

“This is a case about greed,” Spiegel reportedly said as he reviewed the case. “Steven Warshak preyed on perceived sexual inadequacies of customers.” Spiegel said one aspect of the fraud relied on the reluctance of customers to come forward, which would mean admitting they ordered the sexual enhancement pills. “I do feel deep remorse and would like to apologize to any customer who ever had a bad experience with my company,” Warshak said. “I apologize to all the great people, the employees of Berkeley — they’ve given their heart and soul. I let them down.”

Twice today

Home to Sutton's Bay (Courthouse) twice today
Early AM to Brownfield meeting, then home, quick check email/phones, the back for Grand Vision meeting
Clear skies, wonderful day to be out, too bad so many hours indoors.

Oh yeah - our Honda S2000
Traffic very light

M-22 (Michigan highway) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: "The road itself comprises numerous turns and hills, making it a moderately popular drive for tourists visiting the area, especially during autumn. The road, which closely follows Lake Michigan, is often referred to as the Midwestern version of the Pacific Coast Highway (California State Route 1), as it possesses the only other western exposure, large scale sandy shoreline in the United States besides the Pacific Ocean. Similar to SR 1 there are many turn-outs, beach towns, lighthouses, overlooks, and close proximity to the water."

Your Money - Gauging the Worth of a Frequent-Flier Credit Card - NYTimes.com

Just a bookmark of piece on weighing frequent flying programs, worth less every year.

Gauging the Worth of a Frequent-Flier Credit Card - NYTimes.com

We tend to do the buy coach, do the upgrade.
But considering other options.

Quotes

Long time reader of Forbes, regardless of the politics underlying the publication.
I usually find a few interesting ideas in the publication, sort of "People magazine of business"

I find myself trying to flip to the back of the magazine for some nuggets.
Such as the following.

Thoughts - Forbes.com:

Very few people do anything creative
after the age of 35. The reason is that
very few people do anything creative
before the age of 35.

--Joel Hildebrand

What I cannot create I do not understand.

--Richard Feynman

I leave out the parts that people skip.

--ElmoreLeonard

Composers shouldn't think too much--
it interferes with their plagiarism.

--Howard Dietz

Creative minds have been known
to survive any kind of bad training.

--Anna Freud

Yet more hybrid bashing from yours truely

Sierra Club ... clubs the baby seal

The Green Life: Hybrid Vehicles: Silent Dangers?:

"Those lovable, fuel-saving hybrids might not be so angelic after all. Turns out hybrids could be . . . too quiet."


Then we have The Economist on IC engines
Car engines | The old motor roars back

"By putting all these technologies together, small cars capable of breaking the 100mpg barrier will become possible. Getting more than 80mpg from some small diesel-powered cars is already feasible—with a very light foot on the accelerator. Indeed, according to Edmunds.com, an automotive-information service, when you count the overall costs of owning a car, only one hybrid in America, the Honda Civic Hybrid, gets into the top ten of the least expensive vehicles to run, with fuel prices at $5 a gallon. It may be old hat, but the internal combustion engine still has a lot of mileage in it."
"

Sour Cherries, Without the Crust - Bitten - Dining & Wine - New York Times Blog

Mark Bitten touts Earthy
Alright!

Sour Cherries, Without the Crust - Bitten - Dining & Wine - New York Times Blog:

"Earthy is a very good food site for a few specific things; unless I’m planning a trip to Europe I buy dried porcini here also. So, having ordered a few things and figuring I might as well find some more, since I was already going to pay shipping charges, I asked David Eger, who runs the site, what he might have that I couldn’t resist. And he suggested sour Balaton cherries, a Hungarian variety first grown in the United States by Michigan State University and now established in Michigan"

Hiatus

I expect to be pretty much off line for next couple of weeks
Family visits - which trump blogging any day

Simply excellent post

Tom summing his thesis in critique of a piece by David Brooks.

Bottom line - we (the American model of a market society, both goods and ideas) is winning.

Some truly bad thinking from Brooks (Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog):

"We should not confuse a post-Caucasian world with a post-American one. The former is inevitable and good. It comes with the territory of creating a global middle class. The latter simply will not ever happen. Our global rule set is not only winning, it's sweeping the planet. That the political reality trails ('They're not democracies yet! All is lost!!') our vast economic success troubles only the impatient and truly non-strategic thinkers among us, as well as those who consistently doubt America's purpose and strength as the world's oldest and most successful multinational economic, political and security union."

Not so fast ...

Well, first we had Santa's Workshop flooding

North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer:
"Arctic warming has become so dramatic that the North Pole may melt this summer, report scientists studying the effects of climate change in the field.

'We're actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],' David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker."

But now maybe not:
Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis:

"The Arctic sea ice is now at the peak of the melt season. Although ice extent is below average, it seems less likely that extent will approach last year’s record low.

The pace of summer decline is slower than last year’s record-shattering rate, and peak sunlight has passed with the summer solstice. However, at least six weeks of melt are left in the season and much of the remaining ice is thin and vulnerable to rapid loss. A race has developed between the waning sunlight and the weakened ice."

Just goes to show that predictions are imperfect

On longevity

Genetic selection

Glen Arbor Sun: July 2002 Archives:

"Mr. Batory is a 92 year-young Glen Arborite who you probably wouldn’t expect to see on the ski hill, or biking the tough hills around Glen Lake, or trekking across the country on a motorcycle, though he does look 30 years younger. He speaks in a soft voice and believes in the age-old tradition of using surnames with people he does not know well. But Batory lives every bit in the present.

Watch the “90+ Ski Club” patch on his suit zoom by on the slopes, four hours a day, five days a week every winter. He is ranked sixth nationally in the Over-80 Nastar competition, but may be the best skier in his 90s. Batory first learned to ski as a 10 year old in Hungary, when everyone used strap-on bindings and had no edges on their skis. “We used to say ‘Bend ze knees and swing ze shoulders.’ Now the only function the upper body has is to hold the poles,” Batory told one of the many local publications which have written stories about him over the years.

Watch him cycle the 18 miles around both Glen Lakes early every morning, up the tough ones too, regardless of wind conditions. His secret? “To live a long, active life you need three things. You need a good woman for a companion, you may only drink quality liquor, and you must pick your parents carefully,” sounds another one of Batory’s one-liners."

A caution on sorting what one reads

Bottom line is that with issues that are "in the news" the qualifying language is often dropped.

"...advice for scientists who wanted to “dampen the whiplash effect” was to “discuss the ‘So what?’ implications of the work explicitly, rather than leaving that step to advocates or politicians, or reporters.”

But there are those on both sides of the issue who have little interest in the truth, they have an agenda to support.

News Analysis - Climate Experts Tussle Over Details. Public Gets Whiplash. - News Analysis - NYTimes.com:

"When science is testing new ideas, the result is often a two-papers-forward-one-paper-back intellectual tussle among competing research teams.

When the work touches on issues that worry the public, affect the economy or polarize politics, the news media and advocates of all stripes dive in. Under nonstop scrutiny, conflicting findings can make news coverage veer from one extreme to another, resulting in a kind of journalistic whiplash for the public.

This has been true for decades in health coverage. But lately the phenomenon has been glaringly apparent on the global warming beat."

Second order effects

Oil/Gas prices up in the spring (now dropping) and folks drive less... but

Drop in Miles Driven Is Depleting Highway Fund; Loan From Mass Transit Is Urged - NYTimes.com:

"Gasoline tax revenue is falling so fast that the federal government may not be able to meet its commitments to states for road projects already under way, the secretary of transportation said Monday.

...vehicle miles traveled on the nation’s roads fell in May by 3.7 percent from May 2007, a drop first reported Monday by The Wall Street Journal. That made May the seventh consecutive month of year-to-year decline, and the ninth in the last 12."

Just wait till all those SUV's stay parked, and we all drive hybrids.

Sorta related, we have the following :

Economic View - A Modest Proposal - Eco-Friendly Stimulus - NYTimes.com:

"The oldest cars, especially those in poor condition, pollute far more per mile driven than newer cars with better emission controls. A California study estimated that cars 13 years old and older accounted for 25 percent of the miles driven but 75 percent of all pollution from cars. So we can reduce pollution by pulling some of these wrecks off the road. Several pilot programs have found that doing so is a cost-effective way to reduce emissions."

I applaud the idea of improving emissions by upgrading the fleet, but it will likely also improve the average fleet mileage ... another hit to the road tax.

Just be careful what you wish for.

Ongoing mild summer?

Action in the Aleutians can impact downwind weather

Okmok plume sparks red alert: Aleutians | adn.com

and

Alaska Volcano Observatory

Pumping ash into the stratosphere, as well as sulfur dioxide, can cause both haze and precipitation downwind

Population

This thread started from hearing Dr. Paul Ehrlich on the Diane Rhem show (PBS) last week
Audio here : WAMU 88.5 FM American University Radio - The Diane Rehm Show for Thursday July 24, 2008

Comments like "... not worried about depopulation problems, because “population can always be increased by unskilled laborers who love their work.” sort of jump right out of the radio.

So I dug in and started finding references

Found several, and will read them soon
But one of the most interesting was on aging populations: The Population Implosion
And this Dangerous Demographics
"Over the next few decades, the developed world will age and weaken. Meanwhile, demographic trends in the developing world-from resurgent youth booms in the Islamic Belt to premature aging in China ..."

You Tube video looks like it's hour and a half long
I'll have to try it later
Accompanying slide show is most interesting

British Soccer Moms???

Drunkards at 30,000 feet | Gulliver | Economist.com:

"...on a flight from Kos, in Greece, to Manchester. Two drunken British women forced the plane to divert to Frankfurt when they became violent after being refused more alcohol. One of them allegedly tried to unlatch a cabin door."

Don't come to Leelanau

Note: Kurt Luedtke’s tongue-in-cheek essay explaining why not to visit Leelanau first appeared in the AAA Michigan travel magazine in 1987, couple of years after we purchased Sleeping Bare (our lake home). This was reprinted in the Leelanau Enterprise this week.
I use to have the original, glad to have found this...
Pretty well sums it all up for us.

Here are some reasons you may not want to come to Leelanau County:

- It’s out of your way. No matter where you are going, Leelanau County is not on the way unless you are in Leelanau County already, in which case you must either go back the way you came or get seriously wet. This has to do with the nature of peninsulas and there is nothing to be done about it.
- There is no place to stay. In Leelanau County, there are no TravLodges, Best Westerns, Howard Johnsons or Marriotts, or Sheraton, Red Roof, Ramada or Holiday Inns. There are some rooms, lodges, cottages, motels and resorts but none of them has miniature golf or pillow mints. There is a miniature golf in Glen Arbor, next to the flower shop, but the porcupines have gotten at the front nine. There is a motel in Cadillac which has a Polynesian dining room but Cadillac is not in Leelanau County.re d’ a
- There is no place to eat. In Leelanau County there are no McDonalds, Big Boys, Burger Kings, Taco Bell or Kentucky Frieds. There is a good hamburger at Joe’s Friendly Tavern in Empire, but no Joe; hamburger at Art’s Bar in Glen Arbor, but no Art. Joe’s and Art’s are owned by Mike who is usually out of sweet vermouth at both places
(note : update, Joe’s now simply “The Friendly” and no longer owned by Mike, nor is Art’s which is now owned by Tim Barr aka T-i-m-b-e-r)

There is good food at the Leelanau Country Inn, but it is not expensive and some of the waitresses are married. (Country Inn is now North) LaBecasse sometimes has the best chocolate mousse in America, depending on who did the desserts that day, but the rest of the food is so terrific, why’s the maitre d’ a lawyer? The Epicure in Suttons Bay has ambition, elan, imagination and often a chef but does not sell stuffed animals or maintain a parking lot. The Glen Lake Inn is not on Glen Lake.

The Bluebird in Leland has cinnamon rolls, but you cannot have as many as you want even if you pay extra for them. Also smelt, which is favored by the sort of people who like to eat little dead fish with their fingers. Also waitresses. The Leland Lodge has a deck, a view and Special Events, some of them friends of mine. There are places to eat in Northport but nobody goes there. The best restaurant in northern Michigan is Tapawingo, near Ellsworth, and Leelanau County is not on the way to it.

- There is nothing to do. There are no bowling alleys, roller rinks, shopping malls, driving ranges, discotheques, public pools, presidential museums or large monuments in Leelanau County. There are some video games, but not the good ones. There is a movie house but it has no matinees. There is cable television some places but mostly not. Molly Weeks has a bookstore in Glen Arbor (note : now Cottage Bookstore – Barb Siepker), and Prudy has one in Leland but all they have are books. The Indians run a poker game near Peshawbestown (now Leelanau Sands Casino) if you like playing poker with people who are looking to get even. The celebrated poet Jim Harrison has a house off M-204 but if you come on his property, he will set the dogs on you. (Jim has now moved to Montana, to be closer to family). Some people hunt, fish, ski, sail, swim, golf, hike, hang-glide, canoe, windsurf, para-sail, jet-ski, shoot skeet and trap, play tennis, croquet and lawn bowl, principally because there is nothing to do indoors. There is a National Lakeshore (Sleeping Bear) if you like that sort of thing.

Also, there are deer in Leelanau County and it is a rite of passage among them to leap gaily over your car as you pass by. These deer are not smart: thus far non of them has made it. For general understanding of what happens when a deer falls short, drop a hundred pound sack of cement from an overpass on a poultry truck.

Also there is an undertow. For complex geological reasons, the waters of Leelanau County are uniquely vulnerable to a most violent undertow which strikes without warning even on the calmest days and against which struggle is impossible.

Frankly, I don’t see the point of going out of your way to get to a place where you can’t even swim, but suit yourself. The whitefish is good almost anywhere. Unless you are a scardy-cat about PCBs.

Kurt Lentke would hole himself up at his summer place at the Homestead Resort and write screenplays … like Out of Africa, and Absense of Malice. Occasional visitor was Sidney Pollack, among others.

Eat Right

We try to incorporate most of the ideas
Grilled Salmon over spinach is one of my favorites

"Another suggestion from Dr Gómez-Pinilla’s review is that people should eat more antioxidants. That idea is not new. Antioxidants are reckoned by many to protect against the general effects of ageing. Vitamin E, for example, which is found in vegetable oils, nuts and green leafy vegetables, has been linked (in mice) with the retention of memory into old age, and also with longer life.

Dr Gómez-Pinilla, however, gives the antioxidant story a particular twist. The brain, he observes, is peculiarly susceptible to oxidative damage. It consumes a lot of energy, and the reactions that release this energy also generate oxidising chemicals. Moreover, brain tissue contains a great deal of oxidisable material, particularly in the fatty membranes surrounding nerve cells.

That suggests, among other things, the value of a diet rich in berries. These have been shown to have strong antioxidant effects, though only a small number of their constituents have been evaluated in detail. One group that has been evaluated, the polyphenols, has been shown in rodents to reduce oxidative damage and to boost the ability to learn and retain memories. In particular, these chemicals affect changes in response to different types of stimulation in the hippocampus (a part of the brain that is crucial to the formation of long-term memories, and which is the region most affected by Alzheimer’s disease). Another polyphenol, curcumin, has also been shown to have protective effects. It reduces memory deficits in animals with brain damage. It may be no coincidence that in India, where a lot of curcumin is consumed (it is the substance that makes turmeric yellow), Alzheimer’s disease is rarer than elsewhere.

Though the way antioxidants work in the brain is not well known, Dr Gómez-Pinilla says it is likely they protect the synaptic membranes. Synapses are the junctions between nerve cells, and their action is central to learning and memory. But they are also, he says, the most fragile parts of the brain. And many of the nutrients associated with brain function are known to affect transmission at the synapses.

An omega-3 fatty acid called docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), for example, provides membranes at synaptic regions with “fluidity”—the capacity to transport signals. It also provides “plasticity”—a synapse’s capacity to change. Such changes are the basis of memory. Since 30% of the fatty constituents of nerve-cell membranes are DHA molecules, keeping your DHA levels topped up is part of having a healthy brain. Indeed, according to the studies reviewed by Dr Gómez-Pinilla, the benefits of omega-3s include improved learning and memory, and resistance to depression and bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, dementia, attention-deficit disorder and dyslexia."

We often include a good Cab as well...

So that's what Al's up to ...

Interesting piece - Al Gore's latest speach with commentary, other opinions and such

The (Annotated) Gore Energy Speech - Dot Earth - Climate Change and Sustainability - New York Times Blog

Then there was Al on Meet the Press
July 20: Al Gore, political roundtable - Meet the Press, online at MSNBC- msnbc.com

Seems that Al is mixing some data points
Go renewable for electricity generation to end dependence on imported oil.

"The answer is to end our reliance on carbon-based fuels. In my search for genuinely effective answers to the climate crisis, I have held a series of “solutions summits” with engineers, scientists, and CEOs. In those discussions, one thing has become abundantly clear: when you connect the dots, it turns out that the real solutions to the climate crisis are the very same measures needed to renew our economy and escape the trap of ever-rising energy prices. Moreover, they are also the very same solutions we need to guarantee our national security without having to go to war in the Persian Gulf. "

Well, oil is only a small part of electric generation, the bulk is coal
How about 1.6%
Sources: Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-906, "Power Plant Report;" and Form EIA-920 "Combined Heat and Power Plant Report."

But he goes on:
"If you want to know the truth about gasoline prices, here it is: the exploding demand for oil, especially in places like China, is overwhelming the rate of new discoveries by so much that oil prices are almost certain to continue upward over time no matter what the oil companies promise. And politicians cannot bring gasoline prices down in the short term.

However, there actually is one extremely effective way to bring the costs of driving a car way down within a few short years. The way to bring gas prices down is to end our dependence on oil and use the renewable sources that can give us the equivalent of $1 per gallon gasoline."

How, pray tell, do renewables affect gasoline prices?
Oh yeah - Electric Cars

Except for one thing ... Batteries

From WSJournal:

For everyone excited about electrifying the morning commute, Robert C. Stempel, the former chairman and chief executive officer of General Motors Corp., has a few sobering words.

Mr. Stempel believes in the idea of electric-drive cars – he uses the term "electric drive" to encompass both all-electric systems and plug-in hybrids. He gave the greenlight to development of GM's EV1, the first electric car to be offered by a mainstream car maker since the early years of the 20th Century. After he was pushed out of GM by a boardroom coup during the auto maker's last big financial crisis in 1992, Mr. Stempel continued to devote himself to the electric car idea. He spent more than a decade as chairman of U.S. battery maker Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. before leaving the company last year.

At both GM and at Energy Conversion Devices, Mr. Stempel's efforts to make a profitable business out of electric vehicles hit numerous potholes. GM has taken flak for killing the EV1. Mr. Stempel, who was long gone when the plug was pulled, says there was no subterfuge involved.

"The business side of the case wasn't there. The EV1 was too expensive…We were way off the cost target," he says.

Mr. Stempel, now a consultant with an office in suburban Detroit, says the obstacle to mass production of electric vehicles is the same issue as it was "when Mr. Edison told Mr. Ford that in a year he'd have a battery for his car. The weak link is the battery."

Nickel metal hydride (NiMH) batteries have proven reliable, he says. "It doesn't do anything naughty, like burn up," he says. But NiMH batteries don't have the range to be competitive with conventional cars.

Lithium-ion battery technology, similar to that used in laptop computers, offers better range from smaller, lighter packages. But lithium-ion batteries do have a propensity to be naughty. The Tesla Roadster uses lithium-ion batteries similar to those used in laptops. Tesla's important technology idea isn't the commodity batteries. It's the systems Tesla engineers designed to assure they stay cool and under control.

Piling thousands of laptop batteries into a car creates "a control nightmare," Mr. Stempel worries.

Then there's the issue of cost.

"Look at what happened to the cost of nickel," says Mr. Stempel. "The price of nickel has gone off the charts." A lot of the commodities used in batteries have gotten expensive in the recent commodity price boom, he says.

None of this necessarily means the auto industry should once again give up on electric-drive cars. When it comes to reducing the economy's dependence on oil, the amount Americans burn up in cars isn't one issue. It is THE issue. But consumers need to take the latest flurry of press releases touting forthcoming electric-drive vehicle models with a few grains of salt.

The petroleum-fueled internal combustion engine has dominated automotive transportation for a century for a good reason: On the basis of power per dollar, it's more cost effective than the competition. Depending on how strictly one controls the emissions, Mr. Stempel says, a gasoline fueled car can be five to ten times more efficient on a dollars per horsepower basis than an electric car.

But all of this doesn't really matter, Al got his Nobel prize, and his Academy Award ...
Images matter more than facts.

All car

From 1972
Never got to see this in person, but loved the ideas
All car ... nothing but mechanicals...wonderful stuff.

Mechanical for it's own sake

Road & Track Magazine

An elegant requiem for the Golden Age of the Automobile

	“Master Chassis”
				photos: M d”Hamer

by Hal Crippen

	THE FIRST CAR of Don Potts is actually an extraordinary assemblage—a concours d’elegance of one man’s work. The title itself has a sort of parallel to Tom Swift and his Electric Runabout and the objects themselves are resonant with the objects of a now—lost American boyhood—an American Flyer wagon, a soap box derby car, a first bicycle—but here raised to the Nth power of imagination.

					“Master Chassis”
	At a time when true craftsmanship, and even the idea of it, is fast disappearing in automobiles, and even the very existence of the automobile is called into question, Don Potts has paid a necessary act of homage to the greatest of automobiles. One thinks of Bugattis, Lancia Lambdas, early MGs, birdcage Maserati frames.