"History is a wonderful thing, if only it was true"
-Tolstoy

Monday, July 17, 2006

Israel, Lebanon, Iraq

A few links to stories.
The sands are shifting.

Israel: "The War With Iran"
(strategypage.com)

"July 16, 2006: Iran aside, there hasn't been a really noisy response from the Moslem world about Israel's military operations against Lebanon. Notably subdued is the response from the Arab countries; it's mostly been mumbling about the plight of the Palestinians and such. Could this mean that the principal Arab leaders are not all that unhappy to see Hizbollah get it in the neck? After all, most of the Arabs are Sunni, while Hizbollah and Iran are Shia. The exception that proves the rule is Syria, which has a Shia leadership. But most Arabs fear Iran, not because most Iranians are Shia, but because Iranians are not Arabs. Iran has been the regional superpower for over three thousand years. Iran is building nuclear weapons. Iran is backing Shia Arab factions in Iraq that would support turning Iraq into an Iranian ally. Also scary is the fact that Iran is currently run by a religious dictatorship. Most Arabs have noted how that worked in Iran, Sudan and Afghanistan and want no part of it. Worse, the Iranian religious leadership believes that they would do a better job running the Hejaz (the region of Saudi Arabia containing Mecca and Medina and the most holy places in Islam). For centuries, the Turks kept the Iranians out of the Hejaz."

Blame by Some Arab Leaders for Fighters - New York Times:
By HASSAN M. FATTAH
Published: July 17, 2006

"BEIRUT, Lebanon, July 16 — With the battle between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah raging, key Arab governments have taken the rare step of blaming Hezbollah, underscoring in part their growing fear of influence by the group’s main sponsor, Iran.

Saudi Arabia, with Jordan, Egypt and several Persian Gulf states, chastised Hezbollah for “unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible acts” at an emergency Arab League summit meeting in Cairo on Saturday."

In an About-Face, Sunnis Want U.S. to Remain in Iraq - New York Times

"BAGHDAD, Iraq, July 16 — As sectarian violence soars, many Sunni Arab political and religious leaders once staunchly opposed to the American presence here are now saying they need American troops to protect them from the rampages of Shiite militias and Shiite-run government forces."

Note that Al Zarqawi was in all likelyhood "turned in" by Sunni's

Stratfor: "Saudi Arabia: Al-Hariri Travels to Riyadh for Talks
July 16, 2006 19 47 GMT"

"Saudi Arabia is engaged in significant diplomatic moves regarding the escalating crisis in Lebanon. These maneuvers involve discussions with Iran and dealings with other Arab players such as Egypt, Jordan and Syria, but also entail working with Riyadh's allies in Lebanon -- the Sunni community led by the al-Hariri clan, with whom the Saudis have not only political but business and familial ties. Saad al-Hariri, current leader of Lebanon's Sunni community, is headed to Riyadh on July 16 for talks on the building conflict between Israel and the militant Shiite Islamist group Hezbollah.

Hezbollah's actions, which have led to the verge of a major war with Israel, threaten the interests of the al-Hariris. Saudi Arabia, as a principal behind the al-Hariri clan, is concerned about Iran's advances deeper into the region.

Meanwhile, Egypt -- despite its own competition with Saudi Arabia -- is on the same page as the kingdom as far as the threat from Iran and the Lebanese situation is concerned. In this regard, Cairo, which has been engaged in heavy diplomacy, has assumed the task of trying to deal with Syria in a bid to counter Iranian moves to pull Damascus in its direction. The Egyptian approach has been a mix of warnings and inducements. The latter came in the form of Egyptian Ambassador to Damascus Hazem Khairat thanking Syrian authorities for facilitating the exit of Egyptian citizens trying to flee Lebanon."

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