Demographics
Europe is slip sliding away (aging populations) as is Japan.
China will hit the "demographic wall" hard and fast.
By about 2020 China will be both old and poor (in relative terms) due mostly to the "one child" policy.
Instead of younger workers able to support the "retired" there will be more old than young.
Therefore, the ongoing population growth of the middle east makes it a critical focus in EurAsian affairs. This is where the workers will come from.
The Youth Factor: The New Demographics of the Middle East and the Implications for U.S. Policy:
"The Middle East region is rent by a complex set of problems. These challenges include dictatorial and failing regimes, lack of socio-economic progress in the last generations, political violence, warfare, growing Islamist opposition, and terrorist activity. However, it now faces a less well-known, but perhaps even more difficult predicament: demographics."
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