"History is a wonderful thing, if only it was true"
-Tolstoy

Sunday, February 17, 2008

That was then

Cleaning up piles of paper

This one from Aug Fortune on real estate
Was it a bubble or not?

THE GREAT REAL ESTATE DEBATE - August 8, 2005:
"Housing's definitely headed for a crash! Or is it? Two of FORTUNE's in-house experts battle it out."

"As for the fundamentals driving the boom, the biggest fundamental in housing is rents--it's what earnings are to share prices. Eventually people won't spend $1 million on a house they can rent for $2,000 a month. Historically the ratio of housing prices to rents in the U.S. has been around 12.5; since 2000 that number has jumped to over 17!
Expect the number, once again, to go back to the mean."


This is now:

Home price declines steepen in fourth quarter - Realtors - Feb. 14, 2008:
"Home prices in steepest quarterly drop
Realtors say prices fell faster and in more places over last part of 2007."

"The national median price drop of 5.8%, to $206,200 from $219,300, was the steepest ever recorded by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which has been compiling the report since 1979.

NAR officials blamed the liquidity squeeze that began last summer for much of the drop. Home buyers had trouble obtaining mortgage financing, especially for more expensive properties."

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