While I've been sure it would happen, this is sooner than I thought.
I was guessing a couple years out ...
Bottom line - no interest in Ethanol, at least from corn.
Ethanol’s Boom Stalling as Glut Depresses Price - New York Times:
"“The end of the ethanol boom is possibly in sight and may already be here,” said Neil E. Harl, an economics professor emeritus at Iowa State University who lectures on ethanol and is a consultant for producers. “This is a dangerous time for people who are making investments.”
While generous government support is expected to keep the output of ethanol fuel growing, the poorly planned overexpansion of the industry raises questions about its ability to fulfill the hopes of President Bush and other policy makers to serve as a serious antidote to the nation’s heavy reliance on foreign oil."
"History is a wonderful thing, if only it was true"
-Tolstoy
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Sea Change?
Besides likely closer identity of interest between management and the union's (assuming a portion of the VEBA is funded with GM stock).
Will the UAW have some ammunition to use in approaching workers for Japanese ( and other ) plants here in the states?
"We can offer you health coverage, what do you get from your employer?"
This might get interesting.
(some of this from conversation with friend at GM)
G.M. Workers Return After Deal Reached With Union - New York Times:
"G.M.’s key demand was the VEBA, which would include the union’s participation. G.M. would be the first among the Detroit companies to take full responsibility for coverage for active and retired workers and their families. G.M. estimates that liability at $55 billion.
Similar trusts could soon follow at the Ford Motor Company and Chrysler.
The automakers have pushed hard for the union to agree to form such trusts, maintaining that their so-called legacy costs hinder their ability to compete with Japanese auto companies, whose costs are lower.
All told, the three companies have health care liabilities totaling nearly $100 billion."
Will the UAW have some ammunition to use in approaching workers for Japanese ( and other ) plants here in the states?
"We can offer you health coverage, what do you get from your employer?"
This might get interesting.
(some of this from conversation with friend at GM)
G.M. Workers Return After Deal Reached With Union - New York Times:
"G.M.’s key demand was the VEBA, which would include the union’s participation. G.M. would be the first among the Detroit companies to take full responsibility for coverage for active and retired workers and their families. G.M. estimates that liability at $55 billion.
Similar trusts could soon follow at the Ford Motor Company and Chrysler.
The automakers have pushed hard for the union to agree to form such trusts, maintaining that their so-called legacy costs hinder their ability to compete with Japanese auto companies, whose costs are lower.
All told, the three companies have health care liabilities totaling nearly $100 billion."
Google-plex
Scroogled in the Wall Street Journal - Boing Boing:
"The Wall Street Journal just published a short interview with me about my story Scroogled, which appears in Radar this month. It's a commissioned piece where the brief was, 'Write a story about the day Google turned evil,' and it's the first Creative Commons-licensed story to appear in Radar Magazine."
On Google and Government
"There are lots of ways in which Google knowing more about you makes Google better for you. But without much regard to what's happening in the world around us, in an era in which the national security apparatus has turned into a kind of lumbering, savage, giant toddler, it behooves us to not leave things within arm's reach that it might stick in its mouth. And that includes things like my search history."
Source here: A New Short Story Imagines Google as a Bad Big Brother - WSJ.com
"The Wall Street Journal just published a short interview with me about my story Scroogled, which appears in Radar this month. It's a commissioned piece where the brief was, 'Write a story about the day Google turned evil,' and it's the first Creative Commons-licensed story to appear in Radar Magazine."
On Google and Government
"There are lots of ways in which Google knowing more about you makes Google better for you. But without much regard to what's happening in the world around us, in an era in which the national security apparatus has turned into a kind of lumbering, savage, giant toddler, it behooves us to not leave things within arm's reach that it might stick in its mouth. And that includes things like my search history."
Source here: A New Short Story Imagines Google as a Bad Big Brother - WSJ.com
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Silence fiction
Looking for wordplay
Maybe something like "I don't mean to tell you what to do but..."
Maybe something like "I don't mean to tell you what to do but..."
Ah Michigan
First we have State Government"
"Published September 22, 2007
[ From Lansing State Journal ]
Capitol veterans decry state budget impasse
Ex-lawmakers, pundits find faults with leadership
Kathleen Gray
and Chris Christoff
Veterans of Lansing's political wars said Friday that the state House and Senate and Gov. Jennifer Granholm all need to take a cue from past leaders as diverse as former Govs. William Milliken, John Engler and James Blanchard when they return late Sunday afternoon to try again to roll the big rock of a tax increase up a steep hill.
Drop the finger-pointing. Stop holding news conferences. It's time to do what you were elected to do - make decisions.
That was the assessment Friday - after the state House's failure again Thursday night and Friday morning to reach a deal to solve the state's budget crisis - from longtime observers of the Lansing political scene."
Then we have GM and the UAW
cue up Jethro Tull ..."Living in the Past"
How long can the strike last?:
"The strike many believed never would happen shut down General Motors Corp. plants nationwide Monday, casting uncertainty on whether the U.S. auto industry can get the kind of revolutionary changes it says it needs to compete.
An end to the first nationwide UAW strike in 31 years will depend on resolving the key union issues of wages and benefits, job security and investment in U.S. facilities and vehicles, UAW President Ron Gettelfinger indicated at a news conference Monday. He repeatedly said that the strike was not related to talks over a landmark retiree health care trust on which the two parties are believed to have agreed to a general framework."
"Published September 22, 2007
[ From Lansing State Journal ]
Capitol veterans decry state budget impasse
Ex-lawmakers, pundits find faults with leadership
Kathleen Gray
and Chris Christoff
Veterans of Lansing's political wars said Friday that the state House and Senate and Gov. Jennifer Granholm all need to take a cue from past leaders as diverse as former Govs. William Milliken, John Engler and James Blanchard when they return late Sunday afternoon to try again to roll the big rock of a tax increase up a steep hill.
Drop the finger-pointing. Stop holding news conferences. It's time to do what you were elected to do - make decisions.
That was the assessment Friday - after the state House's failure again Thursday night and Friday morning to reach a deal to solve the state's budget crisis - from longtime observers of the Lansing political scene."
Then we have GM and the UAW
cue up Jethro Tull ..."Living in the Past"
How long can the strike last?:
"The strike many believed never would happen shut down General Motors Corp. plants nationwide Monday, casting uncertainty on whether the U.S. auto industry can get the kind of revolutionary changes it says it needs to compete.
An end to the first nationwide UAW strike in 31 years will depend on resolving the key union issues of wages and benefits, job security and investment in U.S. facilities and vehicles, UAW President Ron Gettelfinger indicated at a news conference Monday. He repeatedly said that the strike was not related to talks over a landmark retiree health care trust on which the two parties are believed to have agreed to a general framework."
Monday, September 24, 2007
Arrrgh
So
Working on travel reservations
All went well with Northwest
I know ... NorthWorst, but we get miles (pennies a mile) and it does cover most of our area
So here's the next step
Made my car reservation (National Emerald Club) for Fla business trip
Then, just to make sure, checked for this Wed. rental
Missing ...
Call to National
Note... NOTE : possible source of issues : Enterprise bought National earlier this year.
Finally found my reservations, both this week and Nov.
Neither was on my "Emerald Club", now they are.
Ah well, staff were polite and, once we started to track things down, efficient.
Odd thing was that I'd gone to the regular rental site, with Firefox, it recognized me, etc.
But the reservations weren't being recorded
Bonus - got my discounts (G)
Now to go print my confirms
Working on travel reservations
All went well with Northwest
I know ... NorthWorst, but we get miles (pennies a mile) and it does cover most of our area
So here's the next step
Made my car reservation (National Emerald Club) for Fla business trip
Then, just to make sure, checked for this Wed. rental
Missing ...
Call to National
Note... NOTE : possible source of issues : Enterprise bought National earlier this year.
Finally found my reservations, both this week and Nov.
Neither was on my "Emerald Club", now they are.
Ah well, staff were polite and, once we started to track things down, efficient.
Odd thing was that I'd gone to the regular rental site, with Firefox, it recognized me, etc.
But the reservations weren't being recorded
Bonus - got my discounts (G)
Now to go print my confirms
Validation
Just a couple of days after, finally, signing up for FaceBook, Stevie B. decides MuSoft is interested
Talk about timing ...
Microsoft Is in Talks To Buy Facebook Stake - WSJ.com: September 24, 2007 3:07 p.m. SAN FRANCISCO --
"Microsoft Corp. is in talks with Facebook Inc. about making an investment in the social-networking startup that could value Facebook at $10 billion or more, according to people familiar with the matter. The talks set up another likely face-off between tech titans: Google Inc. has also expressed strong interest in a possible Facebook investment, said people familiar with the matter."
Talk about timing ...
Microsoft Is in Talks To Buy Facebook Stake - WSJ.com: September 24, 2007 3:07 p.m. SAN FRANCISCO --
"Microsoft Corp. is in talks with Facebook Inc. about making an investment in the social-networking startup that could value Facebook at $10 billion or more, according to people familiar with the matter. The talks set up another likely face-off between tech titans: Google Inc. has also expressed strong interest in a possible Facebook investment, said people familiar with the matter."
Sunday, September 23, 2007
One Web Day or Every Web Day
Doc's comments
Thanking our own heaven on OneWebDay | Linux Journal
Interesting:
"* I got ahead of myself here. Being somewhat calendar-blind (much as some people are color-blind), I actually woke up today thinking it was the 22nd, and that I'd better get my OneWebDay piece finished fast. I just noticed, at the point when 90 people have already read this piece, that, um, it's the 18th. Duh."
Well, we went out Friday night 21st, then stayed at the Cabin - note, no net connection's
I did go online later in the day to check news headlines (did GM/UAW make progress?)
But it was Saturday, clear skies, mild breezes.
Went to our woodlot to cut some trees (standing dead stuff).
In the evening I did get back online, to make travel reservations, and from a piece in Businessweek (Social Networks), comments by Doc on same as well as Paul Boutin :.
Decided to fiddle with Facebook
As one who often as not works solo, I'm not sure of it's value to me...
So what?
Basically, not sure that I buy into "one day" celebration of most anything.
I choose to "celebrate" every day.
The "web" is part of much of what I do on a near daily basis, from access to news, to sharing information with family,friends and business associates. It allows me to "work" from a bit of paradise, on a lake, surrounded by a National Park, yet be orders of magnitude more productive.
Rather than be "calendar blind" as Doc says, I tend to be "time/date aware"
Rather than celebrate "One Day", I prefer to celebrate "Every Day" and view the web as a tool and part of my everyday routine.
I don't "celebrate" the electricity that lights our night, provides information and entertainment.
Thanking our own heaven on OneWebDay | Linux Journal
Interesting:
"* I got ahead of myself here. Being somewhat calendar-blind (much as some people are color-blind), I actually woke up today thinking it was the 22nd, and that I'd better get my OneWebDay piece finished fast. I just noticed, at the point when 90 people have already read this piece, that, um, it's the 18th. Duh."
Well, we went out Friday night 21st, then stayed at the Cabin - note, no net connection's
I did go online later in the day to check news headlines (did GM/UAW make progress?)
But it was Saturday, clear skies, mild breezes.
Went to our woodlot to cut some trees (standing dead stuff).
In the evening I did get back online, to make travel reservations, and from a piece in Businessweek (Social Networks), comments by Doc on same as well as Paul Boutin :.
Decided to fiddle with Facebook
As one who often as not works solo, I'm not sure of it's value to me...
So what?
Basically, not sure that I buy into "one day" celebration of most anything.
I choose to "celebrate" every day.
The "web" is part of much of what I do on a near daily basis, from access to news, to sharing information with family,friends and business associates. It allows me to "work" from a bit of paradise, on a lake, surrounded by a National Park, yet be orders of magnitude more productive.
Rather than be "calendar blind" as Doc says, I tend to be "time/date aware"
Rather than celebrate "One Day", I prefer to celebrate "Every Day" and view the web as a tool and part of my everyday routine.
I don't "celebrate" the electricity that lights our night, provides information and entertainment.
Farewell Bip
Had the pleasure of seeing a performance a couple of decades ago...
Marcel Marceau, Acclaimed Mime, Is Dead at 84 - New York Times: "PARIS (Reuters) - Marcel Marceau, the world's best-known mime artist who for decades moved audiences across the globe without uttering a single word, has died aged 84."
Marcel Marceau, Acclaimed Mime, Is Dead at 84 - New York Times: "PARIS (Reuters) - Marcel Marceau, the world's best-known mime artist who for decades moved audiences across the globe without uttering a single word, has died aged 84."
Friday, September 21, 2007
Whoo-who
big brag:
got a small piece of IntroNetworks
Used their product for a couple of years at PCForum, liked it, responded when they were raising some early round funding.
Now being mentioned with the "big boys" ...
BizWeek Oct 1 :
The Water Cooler Is Now On The Web
" Corporations are being nudged along by employees, and not just the digital-savvy Generation Y that's now entering the workforce. More 30-plus employees are signing up with Facebook to trade daily updates with colleagues and friends. They're also building lists of contacts from among the 13 million professionals on LinkedIn. At Ernst & Young alone, 11,000 workers now have Facebook accounts.
That translates into a juicy new sales opportunity for tech companies that sell networking products. Everyone from IBM (IBM )toMicrosoft (MSFT ) and on down to startups like intro Net-works, Awareness Inc., and Jive Software, are offering applications and services."
got a small piece of IntroNetworks
Used their product for a couple of years at PCForum, liked it, responded when they were raising some early round funding.
Now being mentioned with the "big boys" ...
BizWeek Oct 1 :
The Water Cooler Is Now On The Web
" Corporations are being nudged along by employees, and not just the digital-savvy Generation Y that's now entering the workforce. More 30-plus employees are signing up with Facebook to trade daily updates with colleagues and friends. They're also building lists of contacts from among the 13 million professionals on LinkedIn. At Ernst & Young alone, 11,000 workers now have Facebook accounts.
That translates into a juicy new sales opportunity for tech companies that sell networking products. Everyone from IBM (IBM )toMicrosoft (MSFT ) and on down to startups like intro Net-works, Awareness Inc., and Jive Software, are offering applications and services."
Green-speak
Transcript excerpts from CNBC "Greenspan: Power. Money & the American Dream"
Martin Mayer (link to Amazon for his book "The Fed":
My own transcription from DVR of the show:
"I use to go and watch him testify before the House and Senate Banking Committees, which are not among the intellectual leadership groups of the United States, and about half of these guys would ask really dumb questions, I thought what could he do?
But he would convert the question into something to which you could give an intelligent answer which backed the positions that he’d taken, at the Fed itself."
Congress lacks IQ?
They play to the camera?
I'm shocked, simply shocked...
Mayer's comments were followed by this exchange:
Maria:
"I remember watching some of the hearings, and you testifying and one of the congressmen would say “look I don’t understand what you’re talking about.”
I remember one where you rolled your eyes and thought, yeah I know you don’t understand what I’m talking about. Should people have been more studied about these issues, should they have known, and do you think some of these guys were attacking you because they really didn’t understand the issues?"
Greenspan:
"No, you gotta remember that, in large part, ah, for a lot of the Congressmen and Senators, you’re a prop.
Because the cameras that matter are not the National cameras, but the home town cameras, and so that what you get is a… shots of their asking the question, very few shots of the answer."
Therefore we have "Green-speak" aka nonsense
From the CNBC website:
"MARIA BARTIROMO: All of these important economic events you are overseeing the most important institution, and leading things. And then not only are you dealing with these crises, but then you've got to convey what's going on to people. That means Congress, the president, the media, the public. So what? You come up with Green speak.
ALAN GREENSPAN: Otherwise known as known as Fed speak.
MARIA BARTIROMO: What is it?
ALAN GREENSPAN:
"It's a-- a language of purposeful obfuscation to avoid certain questions coming up, which you know you can't answer, and saying-- "I will not answer or basically no comment is, in fact, an answer." So, you end up with when, say, a Congressman asks you a question, and don't wanna say, "No comment," or "I won't answer," or something like that. So, I proceed with four or five sentences which get increasingly obscure. The Congressman thinks I answered the question and goes onto the next one."
Martin Mayer (link to Amazon for his book "The Fed":
My own transcription from DVR of the show:
"I use to go and watch him testify before the House and Senate Banking Committees, which are not among the intellectual leadership groups of the United States, and about half of these guys would ask really dumb questions, I thought what could he do?
But he would convert the question into something to which you could give an intelligent answer which backed the positions that he’d taken, at the Fed itself."
Congress lacks IQ?
They play to the camera?
I'm shocked, simply shocked...
Mayer's comments were followed by this exchange:
Maria:
"I remember watching some of the hearings, and you testifying and one of the congressmen would say “look I don’t understand what you’re talking about.”
I remember one where you rolled your eyes and thought, yeah I know you don’t understand what I’m talking about. Should people have been more studied about these issues, should they have known, and do you think some of these guys were attacking you because they really didn’t understand the issues?"
Greenspan:
"No, you gotta remember that, in large part, ah, for a lot of the Congressmen and Senators, you’re a prop.
Because the cameras that matter are not the National cameras, but the home town cameras, and so that what you get is a… shots of their asking the question, very few shots of the answer."
Therefore we have "Green-speak" aka nonsense
From the CNBC website:
"MARIA BARTIROMO: All of these important economic events you are overseeing the most important institution, and leading things. And then not only are you dealing with these crises, but then you've got to convey what's going on to people. That means Congress, the president, the media, the public. So what? You come up with Green speak.
ALAN GREENSPAN: Otherwise known as known as Fed speak.
MARIA BARTIROMO: What is it?
ALAN GREENSPAN:
"It's a-- a language of purposeful obfuscation to avoid certain questions coming up, which you know you can't answer, and saying-- "I will not answer or basically no comment is, in fact, an answer." So, you end up with when, say, a Congressman asks you a question, and don't wanna say, "No comment," or "I won't answer," or something like that. So, I proceed with four or five sentences which get increasingly obscure. The Congressman thinks I answered the question and goes onto the next one."
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Doc on Beantown
Bit from Doc on SiValley, then some comments on Boston
Doc Searls Weblog : Where vs. Why
Make sure to check the comments
Nikki & Rob, looks like you scored two home runs!
Doc Searls Weblog : Where vs. Why
Make sure to check the comments
Nikki & Rob, looks like you scored two home runs!
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Tom Barnett on "Growth"
Tom delves into the idea of more states.
Not sure I buy his ideas, but glad Esquire looks to have "opened up"
Next - dig through Tom's prior pieces
Nos. 5 Through 9: The Next Five States - Esquire:
"In the lives of men and nations, either you are growing or you're dying. In our time, the Soviet Union imploded, China is adding back lost colonies, and Europe is now the European Union. So why did the United States stop growing? And what will our next five states be?"
Not sure I buy his ideas, but glad Esquire looks to have "opened up"
Next - dig through Tom's prior pieces
Nos. 5 Through 9: The Next Five States - Esquire:
"In the lives of men and nations, either you are growing or you're dying. In our time, the Soviet Union imploded, China is adding back lost colonies, and Europe is now the European Union. So why did the United States stop growing? And what will our next five states be?"
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
NYTimes "get's it"
Quick post
Doc Searls has been preaching this for quite some time - open the archives and you win.
Post this in the "win - win" column, publisher and reader both win.
A Letter to Readers About TimesSelect - New York Times: "Since we launched TimesSelect in 2005, the online landscape has altered significantly. Readers increasingly find news through search, as well as through social networks, blogs and other online sources. In light of this shift, we believe offering unfettered access to New York Times reporting and analysis best serves the interest of our readers, our brand and the long-term vitality of our journalism. We encourage everyone to read our news and opinion – as well as share it, link to it and comment on it."
Doc Searls has been preaching this for quite some time - open the archives and you win.
Post this in the "win - win" column, publisher and reader both win.
A Letter to Readers About TimesSelect - New York Times: "Since we launched TimesSelect in 2005, the online landscape has altered significantly. Readers increasingly find news through search, as well as through social networks, blogs and other online sources. In light of this shift, we believe offering unfettered access to New York Times reporting and analysis best serves the interest of our readers, our brand and the long-term vitality of our journalism. We encourage everyone to read our news and opinion – as well as share it, link to it and comment on it."
Monday, September 17, 2007
Can't possibley be true ...
or can it?
Defense Tech: The Sunday Paper (Repackaged Edition) - Updated
Bush as other than a bumbling idiot?
""The President was very intelligent, razor sharp, warm, focused, emotional (especially about his dad), and genuine," Blackfive wrote. "Even more so than this cynical Chicago Boy expected. I was overwhelmed by the sincerity -- it wasn't staged."
Bill Ardolino, who participated from Baghdad, wrote on indcjournal.com that he asked Bush about progress in Anbar province and Fallujah and that Bush's answer "honestly surprised me in its length, level of detail and grasp of events on the ground."
Remember, this is the same guy who beat the Democrats twice...(with help from Karl Rove)
Defense Tech: The Sunday Paper (Repackaged Edition) - Updated
Bush as other than a bumbling idiot?
""The President was very intelligent, razor sharp, warm, focused, emotional (especially about his dad), and genuine," Blackfive wrote. "Even more so than this cynical Chicago Boy expected. I was overwhelmed by the sincerity -- it wasn't staged."
Bill Ardolino, who participated from Baghdad, wrote on indcjournal.com that he asked Bush about progress in Anbar province and Fallujah and that Bush's answer "honestly surprised me in its length, level of detail and grasp of events on the ground."
Remember, this is the same guy who beat the Democrats twice...(with help from Karl Rove)
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Bits on Banking & Finance
Click headers for full story
Structure on the credit freezeup:
The banking system | Down the drain | Economist.com: "“NOT only is there no God,” said Woody Allen, “but try getting a plumber on weekends.” That just about sums up the problems of today's financial markets. The plumbing is badly blocked, and nobody seems able to fix it, not even the central banks, the market's immortals.
The problem is the apparent reluctance of banks to lend to each other, particularly over three months. That problem arises, in part, from uncertainty about who will pay the bill for America's subprime-mortgage collapse. But it also results from the need for banks to protect their own balance-sheets in the face of some unexpected claims on their capital."
On the next round of International Standards for Bank Regulation(s):
Bank regulation | Uphill work | Economist.com:
"Market turmoil raises concerns about the Basel 2 banking accord SISYPHUS was lucky. He could have wound up on the Basel committee. Since 1999 the committee has been sweating over the Basel 2 accord, a regulatory framework that guides how much capital banks should set aside to cover the level of risk they face. An end is finally in sight. A few European Union banks have already adopted the new rules; others will follow next year. A select number of American banks will implement Basel 2 in 2009. But this summer's credit crunch has put the incoming framework under scrutiny before it has even had a chance to prove itself. “This is the first stressed situation in a long time and it's directly pertinent to many of the changes being brought in by Basel 2,” says Vishal Vedi, a partner at Deloitte, an accounting firm."
And on the problems with the current structure of Credit Ratings:
Buttonwood | Credit and blame | Economist.com:
"The rating agencies operate on shaky foundations AS OSCAR WILDE might have said, it is the unspeakable in pursuit of the unrateable. America's Congress is holding hearings on the subprime-mortgage shambles and the losses that have resulted. The firms that must be feeling most nervous about the outcome are Standard & Poor's (S&P), Moody's and Fitch.
Those rating agencies have earned huge sums in the past ten years offering opinions on the creditworthiness of an alphabet soup of mortgage-related securities created by over-eager banks. As the market blossomed, so did the agencies' profits. Moody's net income rose from $289m in 2002 to $754m last year. But did the fat fees lead to a drop in standards?"
Structure on the credit freezeup:
The banking system | Down the drain | Economist.com: "“NOT only is there no God,” said Woody Allen, “but try getting a plumber on weekends.” That just about sums up the problems of today's financial markets. The plumbing is badly blocked, and nobody seems able to fix it, not even the central banks, the market's immortals.
The problem is the apparent reluctance of banks to lend to each other, particularly over three months. That problem arises, in part, from uncertainty about who will pay the bill for America's subprime-mortgage collapse. But it also results from the need for banks to protect their own balance-sheets in the face of some unexpected claims on their capital."
On the next round of International Standards for Bank Regulation(s):
Bank regulation | Uphill work | Economist.com:
"Market turmoil raises concerns about the Basel 2 banking accord SISYPHUS was lucky. He could have wound up on the Basel committee. Since 1999 the committee has been sweating over the Basel 2 accord, a regulatory framework that guides how much capital banks should set aside to cover the level of risk they face. An end is finally in sight. A few European Union banks have already adopted the new rules; others will follow next year. A select number of American banks will implement Basel 2 in 2009. But this summer's credit crunch has put the incoming framework under scrutiny before it has even had a chance to prove itself. “This is the first stressed situation in a long time and it's directly pertinent to many of the changes being brought in by Basel 2,” says Vishal Vedi, a partner at Deloitte, an accounting firm."
And on the problems with the current structure of Credit Ratings:
Buttonwood | Credit and blame | Economist.com:
"The rating agencies operate on shaky foundations AS OSCAR WILDE might have said, it is the unspeakable in pursuit of the unrateable. America's Congress is holding hearings on the subprime-mortgage shambles and the losses that have resulted. The firms that must be feeling most nervous about the outcome are Standard & Poor's (S&P), Moody's and Fitch.
Those rating agencies have earned huge sums in the past ten years offering opinions on the creditworthiness of an alphabet soup of mortgage-related securities created by over-eager banks. As the market blossomed, so did the agencies' profits. Moody's net income rose from $289m in 2002 to $754m last year. But did the fat fees lead to a drop in standards?"
Perceptions
Classic Cover
I'm perfectly comfortable living up here in "flyover" country
Note that all the borders/and boundries are square or grid-like
Saul Steinberg
"View of the World from 9th Avenue,"
source of poster
NYC is fine, for a few days as a dose
I'm perfectly comfortable living up here in "flyover" country
Note that all the borders/and boundries are square or grid-like
Saul Steinberg
"View of the World from 9th Avenue,"
source of poster
NYC is fine, for a few days as a dose
Saturday, September 15, 2007
For Ian...
Marc Andreessen
Link to Marc Andreessen's blog
blog.pmarca.com: Quote of the week: Michael Cembalest of JP Morgan
" Advice to portfolio managers around the globe: please stop referring to "7-standard deviation events" when describing performance.
Whether it's the decline in home prices in real terms, a sudden widening of credit spreads, the impact of too much leverage on previously uncorrelated hedge fund strategies, a sudden shift in liquidity, a selloff in riskier emerging market stocks and bonds despite no change in fundamentals, unexpected outflows from fund investors, problems with credit derivatives or declines in bank credit lines, this has all happened before.
The smartest managers had prepared for volatility.
The good ones will learn from what's happened and make adjustments.
Those that spend too much time explaining why it wasn't likely in the first place fall into the bottom category."
Link to Marc Andreessen's blog
blog.pmarca.com: Quote of the week: Michael Cembalest of JP Morgan
" Advice to portfolio managers around the globe: please stop referring to "7-standard deviation events" when describing performance.
Whether it's the decline in home prices in real terms, a sudden widening of credit spreads, the impact of too much leverage on previously uncorrelated hedge fund strategies, a sudden shift in liquidity, a selloff in riskier emerging market stocks and bonds despite no change in fundamentals, unexpected outflows from fund investors, problems with credit derivatives or declines in bank credit lines, this has all happened before.
The smartest managers had prepared for volatility.
The good ones will learn from what's happened and make adjustments.
Those that spend too much time explaining why it wasn't likely in the first place fall into the bottom category."
Even more Hybrid Bashing
I've posted a number of times on my doubts about hybrids
Feels like good company to keep:
VentureBeat : Vinod Khosla: Hybrid-electric cars won’t make a difference:
"Vinod Khosla, a well-known venture capitalist and one of the most prolific investors in green technologies, has declared personal war on oil and coal.
He also thinks the environment can be helped by stressing efficiency and finding breakthroughs in new materials.
But hybrid electric cars won’t succeed, he said in an interview. You have to pay $5,000 more on a Prius in order to save half a ton of carbon a year, which is more than most consumers will go for, he explained. Buying hybrids “is mostly about personal guilt trips.” It’s like wealthy investors giving money to “art museums instead of to starving people” in Africa, he said."
I have no doubt that hybrids will continue to roll out, they have Prius PR factor, and maybe diesel hybrids will be an answer, but there are still many "issues"
Note that Vin has his own agenda ... he's been making some huge bets on solar, ethanol and bio-fuels.
Feels like good company to keep:
VentureBeat : Vinod Khosla: Hybrid-electric cars won’t make a difference:
"Vinod Khosla, a well-known venture capitalist and one of the most prolific investors in green technologies, has declared personal war on oil and coal.
He also thinks the environment can be helped by stressing efficiency and finding breakthroughs in new materials.
But hybrid electric cars won’t succeed, he said in an interview. You have to pay $5,000 more on a Prius in order to save half a ton of carbon a year, which is more than most consumers will go for, he explained. Buying hybrids “is mostly about personal guilt trips.” It’s like wealthy investors giving money to “art museums instead of to starving people” in Africa, he said."
I have no doubt that hybrids will continue to roll out, they have Prius PR factor, and maybe diesel hybrids will be an answer, but there are still many "issues"
Note that Vin has his own agenda ... he's been making some huge bets on solar, ethanol and bio-fuels.
One of Bush's Failures
Marc Andreessen, of Mosaic and Netscape, lately OpsWare, posted excerpt from Greenspan's new book (from wsj.com)
Greenspan had his share of flaws, but this is perceptive:
"In a withering critique of his fellow Republicans, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says in his memoir that the party to which he has belonged all his life deserved to lose power last year for forsaking its small-government principles."
They spent like politicians ...
More from Marc here:
blog.pmarca.com: You learn something new every day:
"You learn something new every day"
Or maybe you don't.
Have Republicans learned how to be as thrifty as Democrats?
More from Greenspan here:
Fed’s Ex-Chief Attacks Bush on Fiscal Role - New York Times
Also, Greenspan on various presidents:
"From serving under so many presidents, Mr. Greenspan concludes that there's something abnormal about anyone willing to do what it takes to get the job. Mr. Ford, he writes, "was as close to normal as you get in a president, but he was never elected." The Watergate tapes, he says, show Richard Nixon as "an extremely smart man who is sadly paranoid, misanthropic and cynical." He recalls telling someone who had accused Nixon of anti-Semitism that he "wasn't exclusively anti-Semitic. He was anti-Semitic, anti-Italian, anti-Greek, anti-Slovak. I don't know anybody he was pro."
Ronald Reagan's ability to instantly tap one-liners and anecdotes in support of a particular policy represented an "odd form of intelligence." He describes Bill Clinton as "a fellow information hound" with "a consistent, disciplined focus on long-term economic growth" whose relationship with Monica Lewinsky "made me feel disappointed and sad.""
Greenspan had his share of flaws, but this is perceptive:
"In a withering critique of his fellow Republicans, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says in his memoir that the party to which he has belonged all his life deserved to lose power last year for forsaking its small-government principles."
They spent like politicians ...
More from Marc here:
blog.pmarca.com: You learn something new every day:
"You learn something new every day"
Or maybe you don't.
Have Republicans learned how to be as thrifty as Democrats?
More from Greenspan here:
Fed’s Ex-Chief Attacks Bush on Fiscal Role - New York Times
Also, Greenspan on various presidents:
"From serving under so many presidents, Mr. Greenspan concludes that there's something abnormal about anyone willing to do what it takes to get the job. Mr. Ford, he writes, "was as close to normal as you get in a president, but he was never elected." The Watergate tapes, he says, show Richard Nixon as "an extremely smart man who is sadly paranoid, misanthropic and cynical." He recalls telling someone who had accused Nixon of anti-Semitism that he "wasn't exclusively anti-Semitic. He was anti-Semitic, anti-Italian, anti-Greek, anti-Slovak. I don't know anybody he was pro."
Ronald Reagan's ability to instantly tap one-liners and anecdotes in support of a particular policy represented an "odd form of intelligence." He describes Bill Clinton as "a fellow information hound" with "a consistent, disciplined focus on long-term economic growth" whose relationship with Monica Lewinsky "made me feel disappointed and sad.""
Friday, September 14, 2007
Go Green
Leader or Editorial on Nukes
Links to articles embedded in it.
Energy | Nuclear power's new age | Economist.com:
"Energy Nuclear power's new age Sep 6th 2007 From The Economist print edition A nuclear revival is welcome so long as the industry does not repeat its old mistakes"
Links to articles embedded in it.
Energy | Nuclear power's new age | Economist.com:
"Energy Nuclear power's new age Sep 6th 2007 From The Economist print edition A nuclear revival is welcome so long as the industry does not repeat its old mistakes"
Calling John Stewart
More reason to trust network TV.
About as good as tabloid trash ...
The Informed Reader - WSJ.com : Series of High-Profile Interviews Unmasked as Frauds:
"A former ABC News analyst appeared to have scored an unusually remarkable string of on-the-record interviews with such prominent individuals as Nancy Pelosi, Alan Greenspan, Michael Bloomberg, Bill Gates and Kofi Annan. But it turns out the achievement was apocryphal — the interviews were fabrications, ABCNews.com reports."
About as good as tabloid trash ...
The Informed Reader - WSJ.com : Series of High-Profile Interviews Unmasked as Frauds:
"A former ABC News analyst appeared to have scored an unusually remarkable string of on-the-record interviews with such prominent individuals as Nancy Pelosi, Alan Greenspan, Michael Bloomberg, Bill Gates and Kofi Annan. But it turns out the achievement was apocryphal — the interviews were fabrications, ABCNews.com reports."
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Model Shift
Doc has used the model of architecture and buildings to present a paradigm of software, esp Linux.
I recall this from conversations some years ago
I propose a different model - wheels, hot rodding, cars and motorcycles.
Inspiration here:
On valuing freedom more than cushy jail cells | Linux Journal
Wheels vs. Bricks
Motors vs. Mortar
Doc
Thinking on your piece on V-Dubs
This image or paradigm works better in my mind you’re your one of buildings/architecture … software as tools, vehicles that carry us and our goals/purposes rather than structures that “house” our activities.
Where it’s what we do, vs. where we sleep…
The side commentary is that I too, was involved with V-Dubs
From working on friends ‘dubs ( have you ever seen a connecting rod bent down and around at 90 degrees from intended posture? Ah … DUCTILE Iron!) to my own VDub Combi.
Combi tales :
1: little air cooled plant was in rear, driver, passengers in front, we duct taped visqueen behind the front bench seat. Still had frost on windows.
2: no power, learned how to (seriously) draft trucks … 3-4 ft off rear bumper worked
3) finally plugged in nice Corvair 6 – and solved the problems!
4) cool thing was 4 bolts (to tranny) and a few cables, gas line was the engine swap.
5) related on engine swaps… some folks were smart enough to maintain “spare” for quick swaps. I think we could do one in about 30 min (likely an hour, maybe more if a few beers) with floor jack and hand tools
6) handling- Dubs had swing-axle rear ends – not good, bad “tuck in” if you pushed them very much. This was same as the problem with the early Corvairs – same rear suspension. By the time Ralf Nadar (Nadir?) testified before congress, the rear suspension had been updated to full independent layout, but it was too late.
Of course, I got more extreme, on to a ’68 Firebird, and became a “street racer” ( lots of tales, including run-in with University Poly-Sci department when I wanted to develop survey data on street racers … I was “golden boy” asked to teach when still undergrad … we didn’t see eye to eye )
Got to point of doing motor mods on weekends, from cams, to heads (my own porting and polishing) to full motor swaps (from 350 Cube to 400 Cube, chassi mod’s… final version was quick and fast. Quarter mile was mere low 13’s but that was going through traps in 3rd … high end was 150+ … Therefore was learning aerodynamics and all about “spoilers”, developed my own tweaks.
Then … Insurance intervened
Next was Toyota, which got it’s own hop-ups, from fiberglass bodyparts to wide wheels/tires
Fun, but I was still learning …
Soon after, discovered motorcycles
At first (because, at the time I was living in an old farmhouse …side story about building darkroom, drywalled it myself, driving nails (no screws then) into 100 yr old oak beams!)
Dirt bikes teach you a lot about control
Then learned about street bikes (quasi racers, sometimes know as café racers) learning about cambering machines vs. skid (the late Mark Donahue on “friction circle” … key idea).
Most American “performance” vehicles (cars) rely on “slip angle” the skid of the tire, motorcycles, on the other hand, lean or camber through turns (to go really fast, you spin up the rear, and slide it, but not for the street)
Many many many miles on “scooters” … from local rides with buddies to cross country tours, both solo and with bride to be.
Many many impressions of why scooters beat cars for touring, from smelling manure, to being acutely aware of the weather – raingear when the lighting is flying… parking and huddling up under overpasses when really severe stuff is shaking the truck trailer with a load of steel!
Also developed skills, some engineering, some management, to run a race team (invaluable stuff: do just enough to win, but don’t to much more than enough to win… learned some of this from Porsche), to politics (much politics in racing…)
Did it-we won National Championship
Endurance racing no less, races from 3hrs up to 24hrs.
When you run long, “Systems” become important, how to make things readily “fix-able”
OK, to apply these ideas to software … and open systems
1) work on tools, not structures, things to do or tools to use, not be housed
2) deliver what works, not what “could be best” (racing lessons)
Having watched where the shift has been to more electron based than “whole atom” based – ie: we started playing with software ….
The Revolution for me was you could screw up, and “nothing bad happened” ( as might in the full atomic world )
Granted, sometimes, not fully tested/vetted systems have been used and there have been “results”, but nothing catastrophic.
Work mostly for myself, not large systems.
I first learned a bit back in high school, doing Fortran for some University Professor’s, some Time-share (TymShare?) but not much else until … Apple
Started with early Apple II, learned enough basic to do what I wanted – some graphics I use to do by hand (data representation), then … VisiCalc
Been spreadsheeting ever since.
Digital photography, blogging etc. is secondary.
Nice, but more hobby, communications etc.
Note, I haven't bought a new motorcycle since about 1985! and haven't really worked on any since some time late 80's early 90's
I recall this from conversations some years ago
I propose a different model - wheels, hot rodding, cars and motorcycles.
Inspiration here:
On valuing freedom more than cushy jail cells | Linux Journal
Wheels vs. Bricks
Motors vs. Mortar
Doc
Thinking on your piece on V-Dubs
This image or paradigm works better in my mind you’re your one of buildings/architecture … software as tools, vehicles that carry us and our goals/purposes rather than structures that “house” our activities.
Where it’s what we do, vs. where we sleep…
The side commentary is that I too, was involved with V-Dubs
From working on friends ‘dubs ( have you ever seen a connecting rod bent down and around at 90 degrees from intended posture? Ah … DUCTILE Iron!) to my own VDub Combi.
Combi tales :
1: little air cooled plant was in rear, driver, passengers in front, we duct taped visqueen behind the front bench seat. Still had frost on windows.
2: no power, learned how to (seriously) draft trucks … 3-4 ft off rear bumper worked
3) finally plugged in nice Corvair 6 – and solved the problems!
4) cool thing was 4 bolts (to tranny) and a few cables, gas line was the engine swap.
5) related on engine swaps… some folks were smart enough to maintain “spare” for quick swaps. I think we could do one in about 30 min (likely an hour, maybe more if a few beers) with floor jack and hand tools
6) handling- Dubs had swing-axle rear ends – not good, bad “tuck in” if you pushed them very much. This was same as the problem with the early Corvairs – same rear suspension. By the time Ralf Nadar (Nadir?) testified before congress, the rear suspension had been updated to full independent layout, but it was too late.
Of course, I got more extreme, on to a ’68 Firebird, and became a “street racer” ( lots of tales, including run-in with University Poly-Sci department when I wanted to develop survey data on street racers … I was “golden boy” asked to teach when still undergrad … we didn’t see eye to eye )
Got to point of doing motor mods on weekends, from cams, to heads (my own porting and polishing) to full motor swaps (from 350 Cube to 400 Cube, chassi mod’s… final version was quick and fast. Quarter mile was mere low 13’s but that was going through traps in 3rd … high end was 150+ … Therefore was learning aerodynamics and all about “spoilers”, developed my own tweaks.
Then … Insurance intervened
Next was Toyota, which got it’s own hop-ups, from fiberglass bodyparts to wide wheels/tires
Fun, but I was still learning …
Soon after, discovered motorcycles
At first (because, at the time I was living in an old farmhouse …side story about building darkroom, drywalled it myself, driving nails (no screws then) into 100 yr old oak beams!)
Dirt bikes teach you a lot about control
Then learned about street bikes (quasi racers, sometimes know as café racers) learning about cambering machines vs. skid (the late Mark Donahue on “friction circle” … key idea).
Most American “performance” vehicles (cars) rely on “slip angle” the skid of the tire, motorcycles, on the other hand, lean or camber through turns (to go really fast, you spin up the rear, and slide it, but not for the street)
Many many many miles on “scooters” … from local rides with buddies to cross country tours, both solo and with bride to be.
Many many impressions of why scooters beat cars for touring, from smelling manure, to being acutely aware of the weather – raingear when the lighting is flying… parking and huddling up under overpasses when really severe stuff is shaking the truck trailer with a load of steel!
Also developed skills, some engineering, some management, to run a race team (invaluable stuff: do just enough to win, but don’t to much more than enough to win… learned some of this from Porsche), to politics (much politics in racing…)
Did it-we won National Championship
Endurance racing no less, races from 3hrs up to 24hrs.
When you run long, “Systems” become important, how to make things readily “fix-able”
OK, to apply these ideas to software … and open systems
1) work on tools, not structures, things to do or tools to use, not be housed
2) deliver what works, not what “could be best” (racing lessons)
Having watched where the shift has been to more electron based than “whole atom” based – ie: we started playing with software ….
The Revolution for me was you could screw up, and “nothing bad happened” ( as might in the full atomic world )
Granted, sometimes, not fully tested/vetted systems have been used and there have been “results”, but nothing catastrophic.
Work mostly for myself, not large systems.
I first learned a bit back in high school, doing Fortran for some University Professor’s, some Time-share (TymShare?) but not much else until … Apple
Started with early Apple II, learned enough basic to do what I wanted – some graphics I use to do by hand (data representation), then … VisiCalc
Been spreadsheeting ever since.
Digital photography, blogging etc. is secondary.
Nice, but more hobby, communications etc.
Note, I haven't bought a new motorcycle since about 1985! and haven't really worked on any since some time late 80's early 90's
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Favorite time of year
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Perceptions
Bjorn Lomborg on priorities, on doing what's best vs what's most "photogenic. What's hard vs what's easy (point fingers and call out the "bad guys")
‘Feel Good’ vs. ‘Do Good’ on Climate - New York Times:
"The lesson from our expedition is not that global warming is a trivial problem. Although Dr. Lomborg believes its dangers have been hyped, he agrees that global warming is real and will do more harm than good. He advocates a carbon tax and a treaty forcing nations to budget hefty increases for research into low-carbon energy technologies.
But the best strategy, he says, is to make the rest of the world as rich as New York, so that people elsewhere can afford to do things like shore up their coastlines and buy air conditioners. He calls Kyoto-style treaties to cut greenhouse-gas emissions a mistake because they cost too much and do too little too late. Even if the United States were to join in the Kyoto treaty, he notes, the cuts in emissions would merely postpone the projected rise in sea level by four years: from 2100 to 2104. "
‘Feel Good’ vs. ‘Do Good’ on Climate - New York Times:
"The lesson from our expedition is not that global warming is a trivial problem. Although Dr. Lomborg believes its dangers have been hyped, he agrees that global warming is real and will do more harm than good. He advocates a carbon tax and a treaty forcing nations to budget hefty increases for research into low-carbon energy technologies.
But the best strategy, he says, is to make the rest of the world as rich as New York, so that people elsewhere can afford to do things like shore up their coastlines and buy air conditioners. He calls Kyoto-style treaties to cut greenhouse-gas emissions a mistake because they cost too much and do too little too late. Even if the United States were to join in the Kyoto treaty, he notes, the cuts in emissions would merely postpone the projected rise in sea level by four years: from 2100 to 2104. "
Sunday, September 09, 2007
Who killed the Electric Car?
Maybe it WAS the customer?
On the 50th anniversary of the Ford Edsel, TIME and Dan Neil, Pulitzer Prize-winning automotive critic and syndicated columnist for the Los Angeles Times, look at the greatest lemons of the automotive industry:
1997 GM EV1 - The 50 Worst Cars of All Time - TIME:
"The early car's lead-acid bats, and even the later nickel-metal hydride batteries, couldn't supply the range or durability required by the mass market. The car itself was a tiny, super-light two-seater, not exactly what American consumers were looking for. ... GM, the company that had done more to advance EV technology than any other, became the company that 'killed the electric car.'"
On the 50th anniversary of the Ford Edsel, TIME and Dan Neil, Pulitzer Prize-winning automotive critic and syndicated columnist for the Los Angeles Times, look at the greatest lemons of the automotive industry:
1997 GM EV1 - The 50 Worst Cars of All Time - TIME:
"The early car's lead-acid bats, and even the later nickel-metal hydride batteries, couldn't supply the range or durability required by the mass market. The car itself was a tiny, super-light two-seater, not exactly what American consumers were looking for. ... GM, the company that had done more to advance EV technology than any other, became the company that 'killed the electric car.'"
Saturday, September 08, 2007
Power outage your Prius
Yet more hybrid hype
Read whole thing
Power to the People: Run Your House on a Prius - New York Times
Then throw in safety aspect
Rewire your main box, with throw out, or flip out switch to remove your house from the grid.
We have this, along with 3.6KV Honda generator
Key : you have to isolate yourself from the grid when you power up. Otherwise you can send nasty (fatal?) shock to line workers, transformers that step down power for your home,step up power when it backflows.
Not good
Read whole thing
Power to the People: Run Your House on a Prius - New York Times
Then throw in safety aspect
Rewire your main box, with throw out, or flip out switch to remove your house from the grid.
We have this, along with 3.6KV Honda generator
Key : you have to isolate yourself from the grid when you power up. Otherwise you can send nasty (fatal?) shock to line workers, transformers that step down power for your home,step up power when it backflows.
Not good
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Predictions
Energy Roundup - WSJ.com : Exxon's Forecast for Fossil Fuels
I'd still contend that my "prediction" holds
Unless batteries get a lot better
Long Bets [ 257: Hydrocarbon fuels will be the "fuel of choice" for personal transportation for the next 50 years ]
It's all about energy storage and portablity
I'd still contend that my "prediction" holds
Unless batteries get a lot better
Long Bets [ 257: Hydrocarbon fuels will be the "fuel of choice" for personal transportation for the next 50 years ]
It's all about energy storage and portablity
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Geotagging Pics
Geotagging links photos to locales - New York Times:
"Today, people can retrieve digital photos based on the time they were taken. A nascent technology called geotagging, though, enables people to organize photos by where they were taken, not just when."
Not into the fancy GPS camera idea, but did discover lower level tool with Flickr
Played with it over weekend tagging some of my shots (some are approximate locations)
Flickr: Explore your geotagged photos on a Map
If I get "inspired" I'll try more as the days grow short-er.
"Today, people can retrieve digital photos based on the time they were taken. A nascent technology called geotagging, though, enables people to organize photos by where they were taken, not just when."
Not into the fancy GPS camera idea, but did discover lower level tool with Flickr
Played with it over weekend tagging some of my shots (some are approximate locations)
Flickr: Explore your geotagged photos on a Map
If I get "inspired" I'll try more as the days grow short-er.
Clinton's Carl Rove?
Of note, trying what looks like new tool at NYTimes, a permalink.
Differs from the nyt-bloglink tool before, creates new pop-up with link and some text
Questions for Mark Penn
The Adviser
Interview by DEBORAH SOLOMON
Published: September 2, 2007
"The political strategist and pollster to the Clinton campaign talks about his relationship with Hillary, what makes a microtrend and his Diet Coke habit."
Differs from the nyt-bloglink tool before, creates new pop-up with link and some text
Questions for Mark Penn
The Adviser
Interview by DEBORAH SOLOMON
Published: September 2, 2007
"The political strategist and pollster to the Clinton campaign talks about his relationship with Hillary, what makes a microtrend and his Diet Coke habit."
Monday, September 03, 2007
Reasonable thinking on Investing
Prudential Investment Management - Market Perspectives
Check out Bernard's pieces on the right side.
All in all, pretty well thought out stuff.
Check out Bernard's pieces on the right side.
All in all, pretty well thought out stuff.
Sunday, September 02, 2007
Axis of Evil ... update?
One down, two to go?
If true, will the Administration get any credit?
U.S. Home - WSJ.com:
"The U.S. Said North Korea has agreed to declare and disable all its nuclear programs by the end of the year."
If true, will the Administration get any credit?
U.S. Home - WSJ.com:
"The U.S. Said North Korea has agreed to declare and disable all its nuclear programs by the end of the year."
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