Storm Projections - long term prospects

This was from June 2004

"Nasty" Hurricane Season Seen for U.S. East and Gulf Coasts

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi of the Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather weather-forecasting company thinks the Gulf Coast could really take a beating this summer. "We're in a situation similar to the late 1940s and early 1950s, when we saw several years in a row of high-intensity hurricanes forming," Bastardi said. "It's a nasty-looking situation down there."

And it can't (necessarly though it will be) blamed on "Global Warming"

"Hurricane Boom Could Last Decades

Chris Landsea, a hurricane researcher at NOAA in Miami, said more hurricanes are forming over the Atlantic Ocean because its water is a bit warmer than it was in the early 1990s.

Hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean water. Since 1995 the temperature of the Atlantic has been, on average, one-half degree to one degree Fahrenheit (0.3 degree to 0.6 degree Celsius) warmer than was in the early 1990s, he said.

Landsen and Gray, the Colorado State University meteorologist, think the increased number of hurricanes is part of a weather cycle that's been going on for a very long time. "It does appear to be a natural cycle," Landsea said. "We see evidence for this over the last several hundred years. It doesn't seem to be related to any possible greenhouse gas forming."

Gray thinks changes in the salinity of the Atlantic are a major factor in the cycles. When the salt content is higher, the ocean is warmer and more storms form. It takes decades for this cycle to complete itself, he said.

"We see these major storms going up and down on a decadal basis," Gray said. "You can't link it to global warming. It's ridiculous to blame [an increase in hurricanes] on human-induced greenhouse gasses coming up into the atmosphere."

Researchers have used weather records to identify hurricane cycles dating back to at least the late 19th century. But new research is revealing possible clues to hurricane cycles thousands of years ago.

Kam-biu Liu, a professor of geology at Louisiana State University, has concluded that there was a "hyperactive" period of hurricanes affecting what is now the Gulf Coast, lasting from about 3,400 years ago to about 1,000 years ago.

"Since about a thousand years ago, it's gone back to a relatively quiet period," Liu said.

The current increase in hurricanes is only a small fluctuation within this longer millennial cycle, according to Liu. Forecasters can't say exactly how long the current cycle will last. During the past century periods of increased activity have lasted 25 to 30 years.

The Atlantic warmed up in 1926 and stayed warm until the late 1960s, according to Gray. There was a corresponding period of active hurricane seasons. The Atlantic was cooler from the late 1960s until 1995, when it warmed again and started spawning more storms.

Gray thinks the current warming trend could last another 10 or 20 years. That could mean trouble, because coastal development and population growth exploded during the calm summers between 1970 and 1995. "