"History is a wonderful thing, if only it was true"
-Tolstoy

Friday, September 09, 2005

Emergency Prepardness and the Diaspora

Excellent summary of issues and concerns from Glenn Reynolds' on Katrina's lessons (thanks Doc)

Instapundit.com : "SOME KATRINA LESSONS: We're going to see a plethora of commissions and inquiries (most about as useful and non-partisan as the 9/11 Commission), but here are a few lessons that seem solid enough to go with now"

Suspect that there was/is/ will be plenty of blame to share.
The whole "Big Easy" lifestyle/mentality may have prevented sufficent planning, despite the obvious risk (under sea level and sinking ... hello).

With no intention of defending FEMA, but this is NOT a short term situation.
If :
1) the city will not be pumped dry for weeks or months
2) the "powers that be" want a different city in the future

(Excerpt WSJournal : Old-Line Families Escape Worst of Flood And Plot the Future : "The power elite of New Orleans -- whether they are still in the city or have moved temporarily to enclaves such as Destin, Fla., and Vail, Colo. -- insist the remade city won't simply restore the old order. New Orleans before the flood was burdened by a teeming underclass, substandard schools and a high crime rate. The city has few corporate headquarters.

The new city must be something very different, Mr. Reiss says, with better services and fewer poor people. "Those who want to see this city rebuilt want to see it done in a completely different way: demographically, geographically and politically," he says. "I'm not just speaking for myself here. The way we've been living is not going to happen again, or we're out.")

There are going to be a lot of folks who will not be returning to New Orleans.
Housing and support for them will be a long term project.
Those who can and will find work will, doubtlessly manage. Reports are that there is already a boom in real estate and rentals throughout the surrounding communities. I would not be suprised if this doesn't spread in a swath from Arizona to Virginia.
Those who have been un/under employed will need housing and support for a long time.
This will be an added burden on communities.

How many municipal adminstrators/managers/mayors are prepared to establish whole new communities/neighborhoods that likely will be dependent on municipal support?

It's one thing when this happens organically, over time.
It's another when it happens "overnight"

Americans are a compassionate, and sharing people.
But wholesale, rapid, change brings concerns.
We already have stories like this:
In Baton Rouge, a Tinge of Evacuee Backlash - New York Times

This was not a local disaster, this was a regional one.
The Port of New Orleans and Southern Lousiana is an important one for the entire country.
Repairs/Rebuilding/Restructuring will undoubtabley take place, but not overnight.

There need to be adjustments to plans and attitudes, on all sides, for many months, and years to come. This is where long term leadership will be displayed and tested.
Is the current Administration up to the task ?
Only time (and not the press and pundits, nor politicans) will tell.

Observation, having seen Cheney surveying the scene (last night's Network News)
Maybe it's time for KB&R (Kellogg Brown & Root, division of Halliburton) to step up, do a "at cost" rebuilding job. Payback for bad PR in Iraq.

Tom Barnett: (note that this was "Pre Cheney" photo-op)
Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog:

"Speaking of spreading it around (Lolita C. Baker, 'Halliburton Subsidiary Taps Contrract for Repairs, Washington Post, 5 September), no one should be surprised to see SysAdmin conttractor supremo Kellogg, Brown & Root at the forefront of the recovery efforts with Katrina. Last July it won a big Navy contract vehicle to be the company that comes in after big natural disasters and do clean-up. SysAdmin away, SysAdmin home. Seems pretty natural because it's basically the same all over. So don't expect KB&R to go away any time soon, no matter how stinky its past associations with Cheney might seem. It simply fills too big of a niche. On the contrary, expect more KB&Rs in the future, not less, and they will all seem cozy with the government because they'll always be picking up the 3D (dirty, dangerous, difficult) jobs that the Fed wants to outsource--both at home and in the Gap."

Stay tuned.
This (the recovery) will be a long term issue.

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