Tranquility Base

Woke up with a bit of snow this morning.

Not the first of the season, but nice heavy snow, no wind to blow it off the trees.
Overcast, good color saturation.

Took quite a few shots today.
Culled a few to post up.

Slow time of year.
Seasonal residents long gone, Thankgiving over.
Deer season ends today, but the herd has been thin anyway.
Not enough snow for winter activity.

Pretty much time to get caught up on reading and paperwork.

Catching our breath after a busy few weeks.

Got out and about a bit...

Storm Mountain



View south towards the dunes of Storm Mountain
Lake Michigan at the town of Empire

No Storm today, just grey.


The Crystal River

Looking NE



Looking NW



Both views from Dunn's Farm Road
Now part of the Sleeping Bear National Lakeshore.

Shot a bit later in the afternoon, around 4:00

Faux Thank You to Prius Owners

Bit of a spoof from WSJournal
Point is that Hybrids are a great marketing tool, maybe not a great real world product.

WSJ.com - Business World
Dear Valued Hybrid Customer...
November 30, 2005; Page A19

We at the Toyota Motor Corporation are writing to address certain misconceptions that have arisen about your Toyota Prius model, which we are proud to note is driven by many celebrities, including Prince Charles and HBO's Larry David.

Our pioneering gasoline-electric hybrid, introduced in 1999, has become an object of adoration to the world's enlightened car buyers. Our competitors, including America's Big Three, are rushing out hybrid vehicles of their own. Unconfirmed media reports say that we at Toyota intend to double our hybrid output to 500,000 vehicles next year. Along with other members of the auto industry, we will be lobbying for tax breaks and HOV privileges for hybrid vehicles.

However, any romance entering its seventh year tends to go stale. Some purchasers have begun to question the practical value of our Hybrid Synergy Drive technology. You may be aware that a survey by Consumer Reports found that our vehicles achieve considerably less mileage (some 26% less) than the sticker rating implies. This has led to some unflattering media stories.

Let us assure you that the Prius remains one of the most fuel-efficient cars on the road. Toyota applauds your willingness to spend $9,500 over the price of any comparable vehicle for the privilege of saving, at current gasoline prices, approximately $580 a year.

And should the price of gasoline rise to $5, after 10 years and/or 130,000 miles of driving, you might even come close to breaking even on your investment in hybrid technology.

We recognize that our customers have an "emotional" relationship with their vehicles. This transcends even the regrettable truth that driving a fuel-efficient car does not yield any substantial benefits for society if it doesn't save the owner money."

Doc on the attempts to fence in the Open Range

On a more serious note than usual... the Future of the Internet

An important read

Saving the Net: How to Keep the Carriers from Flushing the Net Down the Tubes | Linux Journal

I'd skip over much of the comments section
Doc : maybe do some "moderating" of the comments to keep to relevant themes?

Then, From George Dyson on Google (aka Borg)
Edge: TURING'S CATHEDRAL by George Dyson

I use the term Borg in a reference, not to "resistance is futile" but to the ability to absorb nearly anything.

Rumors of Google buying up Dark Fiber and setting up free WiFi may be the "end around" in addressing the Telco/CableCo monopoly moves.

Maybe the fears that Doc speaks of will be less relevant?

George : "My visit to Google? Despite the whimsical furniture and other toys, I felt I was entering a 14th-century cathedral — not in the 14th century but in the 12th century, while it was being built. Everyone was busy carving one stone here and another stone there, with some invisible architect getting everything to fit. The mood was playful, yet there was a palpable reverence in the air. "We are not scanning all those books to be read by people," explained one of my hosts after my talk. "We are scanning them to be read by an AI."

and

"Whether we're talking about John Cage's idea of "the mind we all share" or H.G. Well's "World Brain", Google has its act together and are at the precipice of astonishing changes in human communication...and ultimately, in our sense of who or what we are. And like nearly all science-driven, technological developments, governments can only play catch-up as no one is going to get to vote for Google's changes, and the current laws, written in a pre-digital age, don't address the new situation."

Powerful stuff

Oh Canada

"Former Canadian Minister Of Defence Asks Canadian Parliament Asked To Hold Hearings On Relations With Alien 'Et' Civilizations"

Ah those loveable Canadians
Glad they are watching our northern approaches.

"November 24, 2005 -- A former Canadian Minister of Defence and Deputy Prime Minister under Pierre Trudeau has joined forces with three Non-governmental organizations to ask the Parliament of Canada to hold public hearings on Exopolitics -- relations with “ETs.”

By “ETs,” Mr. Hellyer and these organizations mean ethical, advanced extraterrestrial civilizations that may now be visiting Earth.

He goes on to claim that Bush wants a "Foward Base" on the moon to take pot-shots at Aliens.

With friends like this ...

Blustery Day update

Local Paper (Leelanau Enterprise, a weekly) covered the winds with story about freighters that took shelter in Sutton's Bay.

Of note : wind gusts of 97MPH clocked on Lake Michigan, with reports of 120MPH on Lake Superior ...

Note that Hurricane Force starts at 74MPH
NOAA on Hurricanes etc.

More on breezes:
Beaufort Wind Scale

Looney Dunes: Blustery Day

Not sure if I like this idea or not

Coefficient of friction

Coming north it was obvious that some drivers had no idea that winter means a different coefficient of friction for their tires and the road.

Just pulled this photo from the web as example.

It was snowing pretty well yesterday, but not all that difficult. Just don't make any sudden changes (throttle, brakes, steering) and plan ahead.

Probably saw a good half dozen cars where the drivers had found "unique and interesting" ways to park off road and/or in the woods.

Being "Grandpa"

Got to spend the day being "Grandpa" and playing with Robby.

Remarkably good kid, calm, engaged, actually seems to be interested in more than just his fingers, being fed and having his diapers changed.

Of course the good disposition comes from his Grandfather (ahem) as I’ve told that I was also exemplary and so even tempered.

Best that I can recall, his mom was from the same mold.

While Robby was decked out in his Patriot's outfit, I'm not sure that he yet grasps all the nuances of the game (we watched the Pats and the Saints). I this case, I think that fingers, cats, toys, feeding and diapers came ahead of the game.

What a change in just over 4 months!

Differences...

A bit of difference in Eating Establishments between Brookline and Glen Arbor.

Note that Art's has good cheeseburgers ...

Note further that we don't have all that much snow ... yet

Big Mac update

Scroll on the Telly - now Mackinac closed to all but a few cars and small pickups.

Whew - blustery day indeed.

Blustery Day

Not Winne the Poo, but we did have a bit of a blustery day

A few trees down, but not all that bad

Cruised around a bit, spotted a freighter "parked" in Good Harbor Bay, riding it out.

Just as the storm broke ( shot below ) the power goes out ... arrgh



Sooo
Fired up generator, headed to Art's
Only game in town, Tim has a big ol generator, one of two "eating establishments" in the area that does.
Packed - of course. Everybody knows that you can rely on Tim.
Word was that entire county was knocked out.

From Tim's site :

"Art’s proudly remains a “quaint piece of schlock” in an increasingly generic world!!"

Got my "Crusty Whitefish" and before dinner was over, power back on...

Almost standard fare for November up here.

Let it Blow

Big Mac,
Mackinac Bridge, closed to "high profile" vehicles due to winds ...

Timing

Don't have a "before" shot.
Put the canoes away yesterday ... couple of nice light fiberglass/kevlar solo Sawyer's
They spend the summer on a rack which is just a couple of feet to the right of the base of this tree.

Birdfeeder as a bit of a "wind guage"

Bit of a blow today.
Gusts into the 50's

Time to fire up the chainsaw...

30 years ago today

The Gales of November:
Yesterday, returned home, 25-35mph breeze as we landed, gusts to 55...

It was 30 years ago today ...
Haunting
(note that I've set the time stamp as the last communication from the ship)

SS Edmund Fitzgerald - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

From Gordon Lightfoot:

"The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down

Of the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
The lake, it is said, never gives up her dead
When the skies of November turn gloomy.

With a load of iron ore - 26,000 tons more
Than the Edmund Fitzgerald weighed empty
That good ship and true was a bone to be chewed
When the gales of November came early

The ship was the pride of the American side
Coming back from some mill in Wisconson
As the big freighters go it was bigger than most
With a crew and the Captain well seasoned.

Concluding some terms with a couple of steel firms
When they left fully loaded for Cleveland
And later that night when the ships bell rang
Could it be the North Wind they'd been feeling.

The wind in the wires made a tattletale sound
And a wave broke over the railing
And every man knew, as the Captain did, too,
T'was the witch of November come stealing.

The dawn came late and the breakfast had to wait
When the gales of November came slashing
When afternoon came it was freezing rain
In the face of a hurricane West Wind

When supper time came the old cook came on deck
Saying fellows it's too rough to feed ya
At 7PM a main hatchway caved in
He said fellas it's been good to know ya.

The Captain wired in he had water coming in
And the good ship and crew was in peril
And later that night when his lights went out of sight
Came the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald.

Does anyone know where the love of God goes
When the words turn the minutes to hours
The searchers all say they'd have made Whitefish Bay
If they'd fifteen more miles behind her.

They might have split up or they might have capsized
They may have broke deep and took water
And all that remains is the faces and the names
Of the wives and the sons and the daughters.

Lake Huron rolls, Superior sings
In the ruins of her ice water mansion
Old Michigan steams like a young man's dreams,
The islands and bays are for sportsmen.

And farther below Lake Ontario
Takes in what Lake Erie can send her
And the iron boats go as the mariners all know
With the gales of November remembered.

In a musty old hall in Detroit they prayed
In the Maritime Sailors' Cathedral
The church bell chimed, 'til it rang 29 times
For each man on the Edmund Fitzgerald.

The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
Of the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
Superior, they say, never gives up her dead
When the gales of November come early."

Use to spend time in summers on the south shore visiting friends, and back about 75 a circumnavigation of the lake on Motorcycle … most impressive piece of water … most impressive.

Sanibel Sunset

Sunset.
Got to pack up for early departure.

Damn ... I was just starting to get accustom to the heat (though maybe not the humidity).
Finally made time for a couple of hours of "beach time" late today.
Of course, that was time for a big cloud to hang over the beach.

Ah well.

Another one of those days

Well, up and at-em
Time for another cuppa, then some beach walk before it gets to hot.
Finding it hard to get use to the heat/humidity
Suppose the A/C is the way to go.

View is SSE from Shorewood (Sanibel)

Strange Formation

Best I can figure, it's a petrified gnome buried up to his butt in fallen leafs...

Da Donald ...

What's He Really Worth? - New York Times

Disclosure: we watch "The Apprentice"
But not for knowledge nor education, just for laughs.

This is a made up and make believe show.
Contestents are chosen based on looks and "interesting" personaliities.

Situations are pure fiction, decisions are not "real world" and results are, shall we say "Trumped Up"

"Star of the show" is over the top full of himself, and from this article, full of much else ...

Take a few min to read and get some insight as to what a bill (bull?) of goods the viewing public is being sold.

That said, "The Donald" is a master of self promotion.

The Answer ...Circumzenithal Arc

Circumzenithal Arc

"The circumzenithal arc is the most beautiful of all the halos. The first sighting is always a surprise, an ethereal rainbow fled from its watery origins and wrapped improbably about the zenith. It is often described as an 'upside down rainbow' by first timers. Someone also charmingly likened it to 'a grin in the sky'.

Look straight up near to the zenith when the sun if fairly low and especially if sundogs are visible. The centre of the bow always sunwards and red is on the outside."

Spectacular Solar Sight

Not sure what it's called and I don't think I've ever seen one before.
Late afternoon, high cirrus clouds, modest "ring" or halo around the sun and then this "reverse rainbow"



Sun is to the lower left in this shot and there is a hint of the halo just to the lower left.

Shot below is closer to the sun (lower left) more of the halo



Then below is example of a piece of the refraction or iridescence or sun dog
I just decided to catch the reflection in the lake


For this shot, sun is headign towards setting off to the right of the frame.

If I can get the images into Canon's photo software, I can stich a few together to pull the images (halo and "reverse rainbow") together.

Shots were around 4:50 on Fri Oct 21st

DRM : Dumb Rights Machinations

Walt on DRM
Good for him - and he has the "Bully Pulpit"

Excerpt:

WSJ.com - Personal Technology

In my view, both sides have a point, but the real issue isn't DRM itself -- it's the manner in which DRM is used by copyright holders. Companies have a right to protect their property, and DRM is one means to do so. But treating all consumers as potential criminals by using DRM to overly limit their activities is just plain wrong.

Let's be clear: The theft of intellectual property on the Internet is a real problem. Millions of copies of songs, TV shows and movies are being distributed over the Internet by people who have no legal right to do so, robbing media companies and artists of rightful compensation for their work.

Even if you think the record labels and movie studios are stupid and greedy, as many do, that doesn't entitle you to steal their products. If your local supermarket were run by people you didn't like, and charged more than you thought was fair, you wouldn't be entitled to shoplift Cheerios from its shelves.

On the other hand, I believe that consumers should have broad leeway to use legally purchased music and video for personal, noncommercial purposes in any way they want -- as long as they don't engage in mass distribution. They should be able to copy it to as many personal digital devices as they own, convert it to any format those devices require, and play it in whatever locations, at whatever times, they choose.

The beauty of digital media is the flexibility, and that flexibility shouldn't be destroyed for honest consumers just because the companies that sell them have a theft problem caused by a minority of people.

Instead of using DRM to stop some individual from copying a song to give to her brother, the industry should be focusing on ways to use DRM to stop the serious pirates -- people who upload massive quantities of music and videos to so-called file-sharing sites, or factories in China that churn out millions of pirate CDs and DVDs.

I believe Congress should rewrite the copyright laws to carve out a broad exemption for personal, noncommercial use by consumers, including sharing small numbers of copies among families.

Until then, I suggest that consumers avoid stealing music and videos, but also boycott products like copy-protected CDs that overly limit usage and treat everyone like a criminal. That would send the industry a message to use DRM more judiciously.

• Email me at mossberg@wsj.com

That time of year

Morning shot, about 9:15
Clouds just moving on, a few splashes of sun.
Air still pretty clear, few showers moved out



Later, early afternoon with more blue sky.
Walking the dog, break from emailing / talking to lawyers ...

Avian Flew ?

Not a great shot, but representative
Mostly gulls in the air, ducks on the water
That time of year
Scores of Merganzers were fishing very clost to shore earlier, joined by gulls.
Later they moved further out.
We now have about 1/2 dozen swans.
Dozens of Canadian Geese.
Geese, Merganzers and gulls will leave soon, Buffleheads and other diving ducks will come in, some will linger till the ice starts.
For now, I'm assuming the risks of "Flu" are low ... and we don't mingle anyway.

Wilma ...

Sounds of Fred Flintstone ....

Hope this doesn't come to pass.
Don't want to have to pack a mop with travel gear...

From WSJournal

Hurricane Wilma Strengthens
To Category 5 Storm
Associated Press
October 19, 2005 5:55 a.m.

SAN PEDRO SULA, Honduras – Hurricane Wilma strengthened into a Category 5 monster early Wednesday with 175 mph winds, and forecasters said a key reading of the storm's pressure showed it to be the most powerful of the year.

Wilma was on course to sideswipe Central America and Mexico, and forecasters warned of a "significant threat" to Florida by the weekend.

The storm's power multiplied greatly over the last day. It was only Tuesday morning that Wilma grew from a tropical storm into a weak hurricane with 80 miles per hour winds. (See more information on Wilma at the National Hurricane Center's Web site.)

Forecasters warned that Wilma was likely to rake Honduras and the Cayman Islands before turning toward the narrow Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico's Cancun region -- then move into the storm-weary Gulf of Mexico.

...

A small fishing boat capsized in a coastal lagoon, but Honduran authorities rescued its occupants.

By 2 a.m. EDT, the hurricane was centered about 170 miles south-southwest of Grand Cayman Island and about 400 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. It was moving toward the west-northwest at nearly 8 mph, according to the Hurricane Center.

"It does look like it poses a significant threat to Florida by the weekend. Of course, these are four- and five-day forecasts, so things can change," said Dan Brown, a meteorologist at the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

...

Although the storm wasn't expected to approach Florida until the weekend, some residents began buying water, canned food and other emergency supplies early. Many said they take every storm seriously now, after witnessing the devastation from a succession of hurricanes that have ravaged the southern U.S.

Wilma's track could take it near Punta Gorda on Florida's southwestern Gulf Coast and other areas in the state hit by Hurricane Charley, a Category 4 storm, in August 2004; forecasters urged Florida residents to closely monitor Wilma.

...
Tracking : Hurricane WILMA

Mindless blather before Coffie

So...
While pulling on my skivvies this AM, I wondered ...

Sometime in the future, if/when cloning and "test tube" babies are common, will there be a opening for brand ...
"Fruit of the Womb"?

Blogrolling

Thanks for the attribution Doc ...

The Doc Searls Weblog : Monday, October 17, 2005

Hadn't gotten around to posting these on this blog
Good stuff from Tom and John

Tom's new book goes on my reading list

BPL : BroadBand option

Gave little bump to my investment in Ambient (ABTG.OB) but just a poker bet anyway...

Power Companies Enter the High-Speed Internet Market - New York Times: "The idea has been around for years. In Spain and elsewhere in Europe, utility companies have long offered high-speed Internet service to consumers over their power lines.

But American utilities are only now beginning to roll out broadband connections on their grid."

Shamless Cleb Spotting

Flight back from NYC to Detroit
Guy across the isle looked so familiar

Typing away on his Powerbook (Mac)
Good choice

Suggested who it was to Shirley, but she doubted me.
Then, as we got ready to leave, the purple bag, lepoard spot strap and big "E" on the bag confirmed it for her ...

Elvis Costello

Very cool
No one else seemed to recognize

Also very cool

Another day of rain ...

Yet another day of rain.
Caught a cab to the Guggenheim for Russia! with visits to Chagall and Kandinsky Galleries.

Evening at Picholine for another nice dinner...
This is Terrance Brennan's place near Lincoln Center.
Busier, louder, a bit more crowded than Daniel.
Head cold had set in, so it dampened my palette.
Upside is it kept us to the more modest end of the wine list (VBG)

Interesting bit on taxonomy

In the Classification Kingdom, Only the Fittest Survive - New York Times: "Essay
In the Classification Kingdom, Only the Fittest Survive"

Wondering how it patterns to work at the Woods Hole Marine Biology Library
MBLWHOI Library: MBLWHOI Library Information

A day to ourselves in NYC

Thurs the 13th

First off, trudge through the rain and wait in line for
MoMA | The Museum of Modern Art

Followed by early dinner at (Daniel)

Simply Wonderfull.
Superb food, superb service.

Dropped an "Earthy" business card (Earthy Delights) with comment that they are a customer.
Suspect it generated a couple of the extra courses, quick and small...

It would have been great to spend the evening, but Shirley had managed to get tickets to Spamalot !

Not tears in the eyes laughter, but very fun evening!
Note that it's "Sold Out" through January.
Good work Shirley !

NewYork evening ... duh

"Artsy" shot after coming back from theater
"Movin On" with score by Billy Joel, choreography by Twila Tharp.
Started slow, but build well... satisfying.

Misty Evening in The Big Apple

Evening on the way back from Dinner
Cafe Joul on 1st and 60 something with staff of Nightmare the Movie

Just a misty evening, but start of a rainy week

Little did we know ...

This was the brightest, dryest we were to see for the week
Monday around 6PM
View over St. Patrick's with Rockefeller Center to the left

Once Again - Michigan Rocks

Not my band, but nice little story ... KISS comes to Cadillac High School!

Northern Express:

The Day Kiss Rocked Cadillac

"Retired Cadillac High School teacher Jim Neff leans back in his living room chair each evening after dinner surrounded by his “15 Minutes of Fame.” The plaque on the wall above him reads “Jim Neff Honorary Member of KISS.” The guitar next to him is a Signature Model Paul Stanley given to Neff as a gift by the legendary KISS guitarist. There are photos, lots of memorabilia and news clippings from “Rolling Stone” to “Billboard” and numerous publications inbetween, all with Neff’s name in them.

For the one-time assistant football coach/English teacher seeking out his “15 Minutes” was never the objective. Neff was simply looking for a way to motivate the football team that had named their defense KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid). But the results of one special 24-hour period on October 9, 1975 went beyond motivating a football team; it brought students and administrators together and inspired a whole community. It also helped to shape the legacy of one of rock music’s all time greatest bands, KISS."

End of Steam Powered Trains in China

Flashback to travel across China/Mongolia/Siberia
Thought I don't recall if any of it was steam powered

Sentimental or Not, a Steam-Powered Journey Is Ending - New York Times:

"They're just a little dirty, but there's not much harm in that."

From the workers to the passengers who ride this line, which cuts through vast open expanses of farmland, planted in corn, millet and sunflowers and framed by mountains and narrow roads lined with yellowing poplars, Mr. Gao was one of the few people to express any sentiment at all in the matter.

But international train buffs are already in mourning as they count down the days until the steam whistles are silenced and the old, strangely animate black locomotives with their huge crimson wheels are auctioned off for scrap metal.

'They seem almost like beasts, don't they?' asked Gary Hunter, a rail enthusiast from Tucson who has written about the Jitong line for train magazines and has visited China six times, mostly to experience what has become a rare and disappearing phenomenon. 'You stand close to one on the line, and it gives off heat. The compressors pant."

Bottom's Up

Shot of "Chip's Ahoy" as the guys at Ball Boat Works start to take off her "bottom"

I need this one ...

Mistake
DVR'd the first night
Awesome

Flashbacks
Failed to record second night
Time for the DVR
Shop PBS - American Masters: Bob Dylan: No Direction Home (DVD)

"Martin Scorsese's new two-part documentary recounts five years in the life of popular singer-songwriter Bob Dylan, whose classic songs have endured since the early 1960s. The Minnesota native talks openly and extensively about his early career (1961-66) in this American Masters presentation, featuring never-before seen footage of his performances, interviews with fellow artists and musicians, and archival footage from Newport Folk Festivals."

Hey It's October ...

Almost 80 today
What's going on ?
We get this in Aug, not Oct ...

Not that I'm complaining ... too much (G)

Got the boats in (good and bad)
Plastic (nice ol 17ft Four Wynns) in this AM
Getting things pretty well packed up
From now on it's back to canoe

Ah well, we'll take what we can

A bit later


7:30
75 degrees

Damn nice evening

Ah well ... we know it won't last for long
But we need the change

Maybe things aren't so bad ...

Watching On the Beach (1959)

On the Beach (1959): "Plot Outline: The residents of Australia after a global nuclear war must come to terms with the fact that all life will be destroyed in a matter of months."

Gregory Peck, Ava Gardner, Fred Astaire, Tony Perkins et al.

About post nuclear war, survivors waiting for the radiation clud to bring an end to everything.
Was quite plausable at the time.

Puts things in perspective

Sept distraction

"Innocent' shot of "Chip's Ahoy" on a lift
Problem is that the lift is not where she's suppose to be.
This was after (very late in the season) launch.
Started taking on too much water, got her to the Marina "On the Narrows" where she settled in about 2ft of water.
Much horsing and straining, I got her bow on the lift.
With help from Tom, we pumped enough out to manage to get her fully on the lift.
This was on Sept 6th



Combination of taking on water and leak from the "reverser" box (transmission) led to the emulsification of the oil, later, with the oil filler spout underwater, we got this "grey goo"... filling the bilges.
Drained the water, "bailed" the goo with a puddy knife ... not fun, but avoided getting the mix into the lake.

Floated again, we got her cleaned up and to the shop


Got bottom plank of the transom off for inspection
Structuraly still pretty good (she's all of 58 yrs old), most timbers appear to be OK, but it's obvious that there had been some prior repairs and modifications.
Plan is to be pro-active and both add some reinforcements and a new "bottom" (modern materials and techniques).

Make a hole in the water, line it with wood, throw money at it...

New Orleans postmortum

Not as bad as reported on the violent crime front
Not as peaceful as reported on the looting front

Fear Exceeded Crime's Reality in New Orleans - New York Times

Seems that poor knowledge and rumors impeded relief and rescue efforts.
"A full chronicle of the week's crimes, actual and reported, may never be possible because so many basic functions of government ceased early in the week, including most public safety record-keeping. The city's 911 operators left their phones when water began to rise around their building.

To assemble a picture of crime, both real and perceived, The New York Times interviewed dozens of evacuees in four cities, police officers, medical workers and city officials. Though many provided concrete, firsthand accounts, others passed along secondhand information or rumor that after multiple tellings had ossified into what became accepted as fact.

What became clear is that the rumor of crime, as much as the reality of the public disorder, often played a powerful role in the emergency response.

Speaking of "poor knowledge"
""Not one piece of educational material was taken - the best-selling books are all sitting right where they were left," Captain Canatella said. "But every $9 watch in the store is gone.""

Elephants want to learn to dance ...

But I have my doubts.
Failure to recognize the flexible, dynamic, multi-faceted and multidimensional nature of the web. The ability to engender two way communication and many-to-many modes.

Seems to be attempts to fit the net into the broadcast mold.
Aggregation vs. addressing audiences.

The heyday of Big Media is past.

WSJ.com - Media Firms Dig Into War Chests For Latest Assault on the Internet:

"Driven by fear of losing advertisers and audience to the Internet, large media conglomerates are spending billions in a spate of acquisitions and aggressive Internet initiatives, and are likely to keep on spending."

and

"In an industry that measures success by the size of the audience it can deliver to advertisers, the online audiences are already large -- and still growing. The broadcast-TV audiences have been declining for a decade, box-office sales for movies this year are lagging behind previous annual takes, the once-torrid sales of DVDs are leveling off, and circulation is falling at many newspapers and magazines.

And, so far, most of the online audience has been captured by the big Internet players, not the big media companies. In August, Yahoo attracted 122 million unique visitors to its network of Web sites, according to comScore Media Metrix. Last year Yahoo's revenue was $3.6 billion, while Google's was $3.2 billion."

Global Warming !

Could solar activity be related to Global Warming ?

Solar activity reaches new high (December 2003) - News - PhysicsWeb

"Using modelling techniques, the Finnish team was able to extend data on solar activity back to 850 AD. The researchers found that there has been a sharp increase in the number of sunspots since the beginning of the 20th century. They calculated that the average number was about 30 per year between 850 and 1900, and then increased to 60 between 1900 and 1944, and is now at its highest ever value of 76.

“We need to understand this unprecedented level of activity,” Usoskin told PhysicsWeb. “Is it is a rare event that happens once a millennium - which means that the Sun will return to normal - or is it a new dynamic state that will keep solar activity levels high?” The Finnish-German team also speculates that increased solar activity may be having an effect on the Earth’s climate, but more work is needed to clarify this."

Naw - gotta be "fossil fuels"

But from Nature

"Although climate models differ in their estimation of the Sun’s contribution to recent warming, even those that include spectrally varying changes in solar irradiance conclude that anthropogenic causes are the prime factor.The high probability that this episode will end soon is not likely to cut us much slack in controlling global warming unless we reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. But because the solar influence may be more regionally variable than the effects of greenhouse gases, model-based predictions ofregional climate change may be improved by this study.It is at the regional level that climate change will have the greatest impact on society."

Made for TV Movie ?

Is it just me or is this whole Hurricane Season like just one long "Made for TV" Disaster movie.

Great stuff for CNN (get those ratings back up)

Tragedy in New Orleans, villains, and hero’s, daring do, controversy.

Rita as Redux or sequel
Thousands fleeing the Monster Storm, will they be trapped in their cars by rising waters ?

Get those images on the screen, hold audience attention
Sell ads

Confession - I have CNN on in the morning, check the news, check the weather sites, track the storm(s).

Rita Rolls on/in

Impressive image
Sense of the scope of this storm



NOAA GEOS-12
11:33 UT (7:33AM EDT) on Fri Sept 23rd

For updates :
0000_latest.jpg (JPEG Image, 900x750 pixels) - Scaled (60%)

Global Warming ... but on MARS!

Short snippet, but interesting.
I will make a rash assumption that any warming on Mars is not due to human intervention (spewing of greenhouse gases)

SPACE.com -- Mars Probe Finds New Gullies, Crater at Red Planet:


"The spacecraft also observed a gradual evaporation of carbon dioxide ice in one of Mars’ polar caps, pointing to a slowly changing Mars climate.

“They way these polar pits are retreating is absolutely astounding,” Mustard said.

But like the rockfalls, researchers were unable to account for the gradual climate change.

“Why is Mars warmer today that it was in the past, we really have no way of knowing why,” Malin said."

Some other observations about hurricanes and "Global Warming"
(note : from a "right wing" source)
Interview with the "Dean" of Hurricane predictions
Hurricanes and Global Warming: Interview with Meteorologist Dr. William Gray by James K. Glassman -- Capitalism Magazine

and then :
Hurricanes and Global Warming: Interview with Dr. James J. O'Brien by James K. Glassman -- Capitalism Magazine

"Glassman: Let me just pursue this as far as Katrina is concerned because we certainly heard lots of reports that the reason that Katrina intensified so much when it got into the Gulf of Mexico was that the Gulf itself was very warm, but is that a consequence of global warming?

O’Brien: No, it’s really funny.

Glassman: You’re laughing.

O’Brien: Yes, I laugh because the entire Gulf of Mexico in the summertime in August is over 90 degrees, OK. In other words, if I take the records from the last 50 years and average it out to get what people think is the normal temperature.

Glassman: Right.

O’Brien: It’s always 90 degrees in the summertime, everywhere. So, it was 90 degrees and its always 90 degrees.

Glassman: So, the real problem here was that Katrina was really timing. I mean Katrina was a storm that, unfortunately, spent time in the Gulf of Mexico during the time when the water was hot.

O’Brien: Yes. I don’t know the steering, but however it got disturbed going over the peninsula of Florida. What surprised everybody was when it came out into the Gulf of Mexico, it did this jog to the south. If you remember, it was going southwest for a while and that allowed it to get so far away from land that it had a long way to go before it was going to come back on shore.

Glassman: Sort of a running start.

O’Brien: So yes, it had a – you know, it’s a long distance. It was going about 10 to 15 miles an hour. So it had a long time to gather up, from long distances, all this moisture from this hot water.

Glassman: Now, are you saying that people who study hurricanes do not feel that the reason that Katrina, or any other recent hurricanes, have been so intense is that the surface temperature of the earth has been increasing?

O’Brien: With regard to people who work on hurricanes or are knowledgeable about the tropics – I don’t know of anybody who would think that global warming is causing Katrina."

And more on the Hurricane "Cycle"
Hurricanes and Global Warming: Interview with Dr. Roy Spencer by James K. Glassman -- Capitalism Magazine

"Glassman: You know, I was looking at the National Hurricane Center’s website and they list the 10 most intense hurricanes by barometric pressure. I know you feel we should take those numbers with a grain of salt; but still, these are clearly very intense hurricanes in American history. Now we add Katrina to that. We’ve got 11. Five of these hurricanes occurred between 1900 and 1935 and only two of them have occurred since 1969. I’m just wondering whether there is any evidence that the intensity of storms is increasing in the United States.

Spencer: Well, that brings up a good point – and that is that there is a known natural cycle in hurricane activity. We have been going through a lull in activity for about the past 20 or 30 years. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 was the early wake-up call that we were heading back into a period of greater hurricane frequency. Indeed, as you mentioned, the 1930’s, ‘40’s, ‘50’s – these were the peak periods that had some very intense hurricanes, but of course, there was very little development along the coasts back then.

We’re not seeing anything that different from what occurred 40 or 50 or 60 years ago – which is we’re back now into a more active part of the natural hurricane cycle."

Finally

Caught Governor Blanco, of Louisiana on evening network news.

With Rita moving further north, and manditory evacuation declared for New Orleans ... yet again, she commented that if you choose to ignore this one, you might as well write your Social Security Number on your arm in indeilble ink... to help the coroner ID your body.

Stay at Home Mom's

As a father of two, wonderful, daughters, and now a proud grandfather, I find the following piece interesting:

Many Women at Elite Colleges Set Career Path to Motherhood - New York Times

I might take a different point of view from the feminist one:
" For many feminists, it may come as a shock to hear how unbothered many young women at the nation's top schools are by the strictures of traditional roles.

"They are still thinking of this as a private issue; they're accepting it," said Laura Wexler, a professor of American studies and women's and gender studies at Yale. "Women have been given full-time working career opportunities and encouragement with no social changes to support it.

"I really believed 25 years ago," Dr. Wexler added, "that this would be solved by now."

Maybe "this" has been solved.
Maybe these young women indeed have a choice.
Choosing motherhood ... choosing.

FEMA Forecast

Cynical observation.

Rita taking aim at Texas
There will be comparisons and contrasts made by pundits and politicans between the preparedness/relief response in Fla and Texas as opposed to Louisana.

Fla and Texas being "Bush Country"

Superior response and prepardness likely will be contrasted to NOLA debacle.
How will it all play out?

Storm Projections - long term prospects

This was from June 2004

"Nasty" Hurricane Season Seen for U.S. East and Gulf Coasts

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi of the Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather weather-forecasting company thinks the Gulf Coast could really take a beating this summer. "We're in a situation similar to the late 1940s and early 1950s, when we saw several years in a row of high-intensity hurricanes forming," Bastardi said. "It's a nasty-looking situation down there."

And it can't (necessarly though it will be) blamed on "Global Warming"

"Hurricane Boom Could Last Decades

Chris Landsea, a hurricane researcher at NOAA in Miami, said more hurricanes are forming over the Atlantic Ocean because its water is a bit warmer than it was in the early 1990s.

Hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean water. Since 1995 the temperature of the Atlantic has been, on average, one-half degree to one degree Fahrenheit (0.3 degree to 0.6 degree Celsius) warmer than was in the early 1990s, he said.

Landsen and Gray, the Colorado State University meteorologist, think the increased number of hurricanes is part of a weather cycle that's been going on for a very long time. "It does appear to be a natural cycle," Landsea said. "We see evidence for this over the last several hundred years. It doesn't seem to be related to any possible greenhouse gas forming."

Gray thinks changes in the salinity of the Atlantic are a major factor in the cycles. When the salt content is higher, the ocean is warmer and more storms form. It takes decades for this cycle to complete itself, he said.

"We see these major storms going up and down on a decadal basis," Gray said. "You can't link it to global warming. It's ridiculous to blame [an increase in hurricanes] on human-induced greenhouse gasses coming up into the atmosphere."

Researchers have used weather records to identify hurricane cycles dating back to at least the late 19th century. But new research is revealing possible clues to hurricane cycles thousands of years ago.

Kam-biu Liu, a professor of geology at Louisiana State University, has concluded that there was a "hyperactive" period of hurricanes affecting what is now the Gulf Coast, lasting from about 3,400 years ago to about 1,000 years ago.

"Since about a thousand years ago, it's gone back to a relatively quiet period," Liu said.

The current increase in hurricanes is only a small fluctuation within this longer millennial cycle, according to Liu. Forecasters can't say exactly how long the current cycle will last. During the past century periods of increased activity have lasted 25 to 30 years.

The Atlantic warmed up in 1926 and stayed warm until the late 1960s, according to Gray. There was a corresponding period of active hurricane seasons. The Atlantic was cooler from the late 1960s until 1995, when it warmed again and started spawning more storms.

Gray thinks the current warming trend could last another 10 or 20 years. That could mean trouble, because coastal development and population growth exploded during the calm summers between 1970 and 1995. "

Music

While catching up and working foward on some projects, I'm taking time to multitask (mostly saving time) and loading up my iTunes.

Noting my choices.
Part because of what CD's are here, part my chronological order
And I seem to like the Baker to Jobim / Gilberto

Chet Baker
Gerry Mulligan
Lambert Hendricks & Ross

On deck : Jobim, Getz-Gilberto, Jim Hall, Jim Evens, Desmond, most all the Evans is north, Wes Montgomery/Jimmy Smith then on to "Classical"

Most rock and blues are north as well as more jazz (mostly the "core collection" as if Baker isn't Core!), Monk, 'Train, Miles ...

No bloggin for a bit

Busy with : Traverse Epicurean Classic 2005

Then back to Lansing for Board and other meetings

Hurricane Katrina | The shaming of America | Economist.com

Op/Ed from Economist (subscription suggested)
View from afar

From constant bureacratic re-arrangements to plenty of pork.

Hurricane Katrina | The shaming of America | Economist.com:

"Hurricane Katrina has exposed both personal and structural weaknesses in America's government"

The finger-pointing is already under way, with the federal government blaming local government and local government blaming the feds. But if America is to avoid future catastrophes it needs to do more than bicker. It needs to learn the right lessons from this fortnight's debacle.

Blame for the shame

Natural disasters on this scale inevitably bring chaos and suffering. Katrina wreaked havoc over an area the size of Britain. And even the best-laid hurricane plans cannot deal with the quirks of human nature. People who live in areas prone to hurricanes tend to become blasé about storm warnings. This insouciance is native to New Orleans, where a lethal local cocktail is called The Hurricane. But none of that excuses government's failure.

Local government must shoulder some of the blame. The authorities in Louisiana have a reputation for confusion, inefficiency and worse. Different authorities are responsible for different levees, for example, and several close associates of the former mayor were recently indicted for corruption. Local incompetence exacerbated the disaster: in Orleans Parish, for instance, where 60,000 households do not own a car, hundreds of city buses which might have shipped out stranded people were left to be swamped by the rising waters.

Still, Washington is mostly at fault. The responsibility for mobilising the response to a disaster lies squarely with the federal government. And the responsibility for galvanising the federal government lies squarely with the president.

---

Mr Bush's personal weakness is shaming; but the structural failures in government that Katrina has revealed are perhaps more worrying. After September 11th Mr Bush poured billions into creating the Department of Homeland Security, but the department has flunked its first big test. It is a bureaucratic monstrosity that includes organisations as different as the Coast Guard and the immigration authorities and spends most of its energies in perpetual reorganisation. The department's focus on fighting terrorism has also distracted attention from coping with natural disasters, reducing the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) from a cabinet-level agency into a neglected stepchild. The best illustration of this is its boss: Michael Brown spent nine years at the Arabian Horse Association, before finally being eased out and joining FEMA as general counsel, brought in by its previous head, his college room-mate.

The second structural problem is Washington's addiction to pork-barrel spending. The anti-war left is keen to blame the Iraq war for depleting government's resources. The real problem, however, is not a lack of resources—Mr Bush has increased discretionary spending faster than any president since Lyndon Johnson—but the way they are allocated. The funding for New Orleans's levees, which has fallen by nearly half over the past four years, started dropping in 2001—before the Iraq war, but after Bob Livingston, a Louisiana congressman and erstwhile chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, left politics under a cloud. The recent transport bill contains some $24 billion-worth of pure pork—including $231m for a “bridge to nowhere” in Alaska. Although this sort of thing is endemic in Washington, it has got far worse since the Republicans took over both the White House and Congress.

---

If Mr Bush addresses America's failings with the same vigour that he addressed Islamic terrorism in the wake of September 11th, he has a chance of reinvigorating his presidency and restoring respect in his country; if he doesn't, he will go the way of his father, limping wounded into retirement.

Aurora Alert

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

Strong odds of geomagnetic storms next 24-48hrs

More here:
Space Weather Warnings Currently in Effect

and here:
Northern Hemisphere Enlarged View

Dept of Homeland Security and FEMA

Time to rethink the organizational chart.

DHS works, at least based on the evidence that we haven't had another 9/11.
FEMA doesn't... based on Katrina
INTEL DUMP - -

"FEMA understands disasters, and many of its programs have been in place and effective for years. Since its inception, DHS has been chasing its tail looking under every rock for the next 9/11 while ignoring the nuts and bolts issues that face our countries. Hurricane season comes every year. Long after you and I are dead, and 9/11 is a distant memory that our grandkids re-live on the history channel, Hurricane season will come. People are fleeting, Mother Nature endures."

Who is/was in charge?

Good reivew of legal aspects of Katrina.
National Guard and who calls the shots, who "owns" and controls it.

INTEL DUMP - -

New Orleans was already "slipping"

The future of New Orleans | The way of Babylon? | Economist.com

What lies ahead for an irreplaceable city...

The deputy police chief says that New Orleans has “completely been destroyed”. He exaggerates, but not greatly: around 140,000-160,000 houses have been submerged or ruined. The 10,000 or so people who, at mid-week, were still clinging on in their homes were ordered to leave, not least for their health; three people in the region had already died from drinking water seething with viruses and bacteria. If force did not work, money might: at the shelters in Texas and elsewhere, FEMA agents were handing out $2,000 debit cards.

If the city is abandoned, how quickly can it recover? It all depends on how quickly the city's drainage system takes water out, how efficiently the 60m-90m tons of raw sewage are cleaned up, and how soon the power comes back on. And on other, longer-term, calculations.

New Orleans was already losing people before Katrina; its population peaked, at almost 630,000, in 1960. At the last census count, in 2000, 485,000 people lived there. Officials now fear that as many as 250,000 will leave for good, and that dull-but-prosperous Baton Rouge will soon become Louisiana's economic centre. New Orleanians have long disdained their state's capital. But it stands on the first high ground along the Mississippi, and its population of about 230,000 has supposedly doubled in past days. Evacuees are already buying houses in its suburbs.

New Orleans officials are busy discussing how they might lure people back. They intend to set up centres in every area where the refugees have gone, telling them how the clean-up is progressing. They might pay the poor to go back, and offer incentives to the rich. Urgently, they are hunting round for “creative legislation and ideas”.

All Warm and Fuzzy - T. Boone Pickens

I question the use of funds.
$50K charther jet to move 80 pets?
$625 per animal.
Even if they could have gotten the 200 they wanted, that would be $250 each.

If you want to be know as a deep thinker (Peak Oil, prices headed higher yet) you should be more careful how you spread your wealth.

CNN.com - New Orleans dogs go west - Sep 11, 2005

"New Orleans dogs go west
First flight of rescued pets to California homes

Monday, September 12, 2005; Posted: 7:08 a.m. EDT (11:08 GMT)
SAN FRANCISCO, California (AP) -- The first major airlift of dogs from the hurricane-battered Gulf Coast left Louisiana on Sunday, carrying about 80 pets to new temporary homes in California.

The Continental Airlines flight from Baton Rouge, Louisiana, was chartered for about $50,000 by Texas oil tycoon Boone Pickens and his wife, Madeleine, in a movement dubbed "Operation Pet Lift."

H5N1 in the "on deck" circle

Avian Flu Pandemic could make Katrina look like a picnic

A Hot Zone In The Heartland

"Little could be done to contain a deadly avian flu outbreak"

Reflections on Katrina

Sooo
Per Brooks etc.

Federal response is not swift, but is sure.

Thought experiment - would you rather have a bulldozer or an ATV to work on construction/cleanup.

Bulldozer is slow but powerfull
ATV is light and agile ... but can't move much.

Which do you choose...

7:30AM CNN ... 70K boots on the ground doing cleanup
Bulldozer

Is Govenment really the answer?

Longish quote from David Brooks (NYTimes Op/Ed).
Counter to the liberal/progressive demand for more government, in the wake of Katrina.

Much like the old saw that the best-laid battle plans go to hell when the fighting actually starts, the same for natural disasters.
There is a need for leadership, from the squad to the general staff, flexible and adaptive.

The eastern (in the late 20th Century the Soviet) model was successful when you could throw masses of troops at the enemy, the democratic model succeeds when you unleash individual initiative.

The Best-Laid Plan: Too Bad It Flopped - New York Times:

"...the brutal fact is, government tends toward bureaucracy, which means elaborate paper flow but ineffective action. Government depends on planning, but planners can never really anticipate the inevitable complexity of events. And American government is inevitably divided and power is inevitably devolved.

For example, the Army Corps of Engineers had plenty of money (Louisiana received more than any other state), but that spending was carved up into little pork barrel projects. There were ample troops nearby to maintain order, but they were divided between federal and state authorities and constrained by regulations.

This preparedness plan is government as it really is. It reminds us that canning Michael Brown or appointing some tough response czar will not change the endemic failures at the heart of this institutional collapse.

So of course we need limited but energetic government. But liberals who think this disaster is going to set off a progressive revival need to explain how a comprehensive governmental failure is going to restore America's faith in big government."

Times on the Diaspora

For many "a new start..."

Uprooted and Scattered Far From the Familiar - New York Times

"Hurricane Katrina has produced a diaspora of historic proportions. Not since the Dust Bowl of the 1930's, or the end of the Civil War in the 1860's have so many Americans been on the move from a single event. Federal officials who are guiding the evacuation say 400,000 to upwards of one million people have been displaced from ruined homes, mainly in the New Orleans metropolitan area."

"Many say they will never go back, vowing to build new lives in strange lands, marked forever by the storm that forced their exodus. They seem dazed and disconnected, though happy to be alive, to be breathing clean air, to be dry. Others say they still feel utterly lost, uprooted from all that is familiar, desperate to find a missing brother or aunt."

Literature as the highest form of Art

And English as the superior language for Literature

The meaning of art | Art smarts | Economist.com:

"Far, far better is the second half of the book in which Mr Carey seeks to persuade us that the greatest of all art forms is not painting or music but literature, and English literature specifically. Uninflected and without gendered nouns, English was uniquely placed to offer Shakespeare the linguistic pliancy and suppleness he needed to turn out the epidemic of metaphors and similes that so mark his work. Here, Mr Carey turns in a bravura performance. Drawing on his great knowledge of poetry, he is able to show how literature outsmarts other art forms; how it alone is able to criticise itself, which makes it more powerful and self-aware than other forms; how only literature can comment, and therefore moralise, not by making you more moral but by giving you ideas to think with; and how by hinting rather than spelling out, it is literature's indistinctness that empowers the reader's imagination.

"

Change of subject - Economic Development

Interesting pieces on Economic Development in the age of Thinking.
First is a bit long, but good:
"The Rise of the Creative Class" by Richard Florida

The Rise of the Creative Class: Why cities without gays and rock bands are losing the economic development race.


Then there's this by Daniel Pink: Wired so a bit breezier
Wired 13.02: Revenge of the Right Brain
"Logical and precise, left-brain thinking gave us the Information Age. Now comes the Conceptual Age - ruled by artistry, empathy, and emotion."

Talk about "Reality TV"

Inform or inflame ?
Demand to show bodies ...

While I fully believe and support the 1st Amendment and freedom of the press, I also would like to see discretion.

CNN.com - U.S. won't ban media�from New Orleans searches - Sep 10, 2005: "CNN filed suit against Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Michael Brown, arguing that the officials who announced the decision were acting on FEMA's behalf.

'For an agency to unilaterally ban all coverage of a major component of its governmental function, that is, recovery of the deceased victims of the tragedy, is unprecedented,' CNN argued in its legal brief. 'Instead, the agency has made a subjective, content-based determination that publicizing the operation would be 'without dignity.''

CNN's brief argued, 'It is not the place of government to replace its own internal judgment for that of a free and independent media.'

Because of controversy about how FEMA and other agencies handled the disaster response, CNN lawyers argued, 'it is even more vitally important for the public, Congress and the administration to have an independent view of the conduct of this important phase of the operation.'"

Observations on New Orleans

Crisis Management according to Jack Welch (on Cavito on Fox)
The stages :

Denial
Inaction
Subject defined by others
Blood spilled (Brown out at FEMA)
Response – better than ever (change cycle of poverty)
Note some of this by Diaspora – some will find new opportunities elsewhere.

(echos of David Brooks Katrina's Silver Lining - New York Times)

Watch for the private sector response.
Unfortunately some of this feeding on Public Funds.

The Second Storm - Pentagon's view of response to Katrina

Of note : CNN (et al) may not have covered the worst hit areas. They may have covered what they could reach (and what makes a "story")

Not to make any excuses nor "shift blame" but Television has a different role than rescue ...At it's best, it is to infom, at worst, to inflame (and sell advertising).

"Some procedural shortcomings were instituted almost immediately. In the Northcom operations center, TV coverage of disaster zones was closely monitored, prompting the dispatch of relief missions prior to the receipt of official reports or requests. During past wargames, FEMA and other agencies have been reluctant to be drawn into "the 'CNN effect' and instead rely on standard National Response Plan reporting channels, because they were afraid they'd be sucked down a rat hole," says the retired officer. Players were concerned that critical resources could be diverted by low-priority regions, only because those areas were getting media attention."

The Second Storm - aviation week, aerospace, airline industry, space technology, defense, aircraft, homeland security, articles, magazines, FAA, regulations, news: "The Second Storm
09/09/2005 01:55:55 PM
By William B. Scott, David A. Fulghum and Craig Covault/Cape Canaveral

To the list of casualties being tallied following Hurricane Katrina, at least two more will certainly be added: procedures for requesting assistance from the federal government and rules for how the military should respond to a disaster.

With images of desperate flooding victims in New Orleans still fresh, the White House, congressional committees and the Pentagon itself have already announced investigations, and 'lessons-learned' studies will probe whether the military could have done more or responded quicker "

NYTimes quotes Stratfor and more

Stratfor, Motley Fool and Murry get quoted
Stratfor : it's the Geopolitics of New Orleans

Murry : cat's out of the bag on racial issues

The Necessity of New Orleans - New York Times

AS horrible as Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath have been, the markets and pundits have concluded that the economic fallout won't be so bad.

Not so fast, writes George Friedman, chairman of Strategic Forecasting at the company's news-driven, globally oriented Web site (stratfor.com). While the river, the port and the oil infrastructure appear to be basically functional or reparable, that doesn't mean everything's jake.

"During the cold war," he writes, "a macabre topic of discussion among bored graduate students who studied such things was this: If the Soviets could destroy one city with a large nuclear device, which would it be? The usual answers were Washington or New York. For me, the answer was simple: New Orleans."

After describing how and why New Orleans is and always has been central to the economy - for reasons that go way beyond the oil industry - Mr. Friedman writes that while it's good that so much of the infrastructure is intact, the population loss could be devastating.

"The physical and business processes of a port cannot occur in a ghost town, and right now, that is what New Orleans is. It is not about the facilities, and it is not about the oil. It is about the loss of a city's population and the paralysis of the largest port in the United States."

The cost of rebuilding can't help but affect the economy. But rebuild we must, Mr. Friedman says, even though "it is a terrible place for a city to be located, but exactly the place where a city must exist."

"Geopolitics is the stuff of permanent geographical realities and the way they interact with political life. Geopolitics created New Orleans. Geopolitics caused American presidents to obsess over its safety. And geopolitics will force the city's resurrection, even if it is in the worst imaginable place."

MICROECONOMICS The financial analyst Stephen D. Simpson, writing for the Motley Fool (fool.com), drills down to the specific effects the hurricane may have. "There will be far-reaching consequences across the entire economy," he writes. "While the region will someday recover and return to normalcy, it won't happen quickly."

and

Commentary - The Inequality Taboo
"Eleven years after the assumptions underlying "The Bell Curve" were rejected as bad science by many critics and academics, Charles Murray, one author of the book, has decided that now is the time for a defense on the Web site of Commentary magazine. His inspiration is Lawrence H. Summers, the Harvard University president whose remarks about women's aptitude for math and science caused a stir early this year. Despite the vast differences in what they said, how they said it, and how people reacted, Mr. Murray declares that both he and Mr. Summers are victims of "Orwellian disinformation."

Diaspora part Duex

David Brooks on hope for the hopeless.
Break the cycles of poverty.

Katrina's Silver Lining - New York Times

"As a colleague of mine says, every crisis is an opportunity. And sure enough, Hurricane Katrina has given us an amazing chance to do something serious about urban poverty."

and

" The Clinton administration built on Gautreaux by creating the Moving to Opportunity program, dispersing poor families to middle-class neighborhoods in five other metropolitan areas. This time the results weren't as striking, but were still generally positive. The relocated parents weren't more likely to have jobs or increase their earnings (being close to job opportunities is not enough - you need the skills and habits to get the jobs and do the work), but their children did better, especially the girls.

The lesson is that you can't expect miracles, but if you break up zones of concentrated poverty, you can see progress over time.

In the post-Katrina world, that means we ought to give people who don't want to move back to New Orleans the means to disperse into middle-class areas nationwide. (That's the kind of thing Houston is beginning to do right now.)

There may be local resistance to the new arrivals - in Baton Rouge there were three-hour lines at gun shops as locals armed themselves against the hurricane victims moving to their area - but if there has ever been a moment when people may open their hearts, this is it."

Friedman on Journalists in New Orleans

Mostly a piece about Iraq and the hopes for the new Constitution, but also a good observation of his own profession

New Orleans and Baghdad - New York Times

"...the Katrina TV drama is not going away. Hell hath no fury like journalists with a compelling TV story where they get to be the heroes and the government the fools."

Bill Mahr thought that we're "getting our journalists back" (a la Watergate?).
Maybe more like "what sells airtime"

Timeline of Katrina

Interesting, if frustrated and maybe frustrating to read compliation of the Katrina events.


Right Wing Nut House � KATRINA: RESPONSE TIMELINE: Politics served up with a smile… And a stilletto.

Rich Moran :

"If I may be allowed a personal opinion?

This has been a clusterf**k from the get go on all levels and with a few unbelievably heroic exceptions – mostly the LA Fish and Wildlife employees who were out in boats rescuing people almost before the storm passed and our selfless military who performed with their usual spectacular competence and courage. I am convinced that any Commission or Congressional investigation – if even slightly impartial – will find enough stupidity, incompetence, panic, blame shifting, lying, and bureaucratic ass covering to sate the appetite for name calling and blame assigning of even the most partisan among us.

This was a failure of leadership and competence. But it was also a failure of will. And for that, you need look no farther than the mirror in your bathroom, dearest readers. We elected this crew. We elected the Congresses over the past 25 years – Democratic and Republican – that failed to do the things necessary to make New Orleans safer.

Elections have consequences. Consider that fact the next time you pull the curtain in the booth to cast your vote. If nothing else, the aftermath of this tragedy reminds us of that, then perhaps something worthwhile will have been learned."

Response Time and Insurrection Act

Good summary of why Active Duty Federal Troops were not "First Responders"

I know very little of Gov. Blanco and either how long she has been on the job, her politics (other than party affilation) nor her background and preparation.
But if you are the Govenor of a State that is at risk of a natural disaster, shouldn't you have a "rule book" of proceedures?

I for one would preferr our Governor to make the first decisions, rather than turn the State of Michigan over the the Federal Government.

Political Issues Snarled Plans for Troop Aid - NYTimes

I would propose the title of the article be "Legal Issues Snarled Plans..."

"To seize control of the mission, Mr. Bush would have had to invoke the Insurrection Act, which allows the president in times of unrest to command active-duty forces into the states to perform law enforcement duties."

Read the rest of the piece.

Also : as to the question of why CNN/NBC etc could be on the scene quicker than the National Guard/Active Duty Forces ... lawyers.

Reports job is to take/deliver pictures/information not take charge.

Emergency Prepardness and the Diaspora

Excellent summary of issues and concerns from Glenn Reynolds' on Katrina's lessons (thanks Doc)

Instapundit.com : "SOME KATRINA LESSONS: We're going to see a plethora of commissions and inquiries (most about as useful and non-partisan as the 9/11 Commission), but here are a few lessons that seem solid enough to go with now"

Suspect that there was/is/ will be plenty of blame to share.
The whole "Big Easy" lifestyle/mentality may have prevented sufficent planning, despite the obvious risk (under sea level and sinking ... hello).

With no intention of defending FEMA, but this is NOT a short term situation.
If :
1) the city will not be pumped dry for weeks or months
2) the "powers that be" want a different city in the future

(Excerpt WSJournal : Old-Line Families Escape Worst of Flood And Plot the Future : "The power elite of New Orleans -- whether they are still in the city or have moved temporarily to enclaves such as Destin, Fla., and Vail, Colo. -- insist the remade city won't simply restore the old order. New Orleans before the flood was burdened by a teeming underclass, substandard schools and a high crime rate. The city has few corporate headquarters.

The new city must be something very different, Mr. Reiss says, with better services and fewer poor people. "Those who want to see this city rebuilt want to see it done in a completely different way: demographically, geographically and politically," he says. "I'm not just speaking for myself here. The way we've been living is not going to happen again, or we're out.")

There are going to be a lot of folks who will not be returning to New Orleans.
Housing and support for them will be a long term project.
Those who can and will find work will, doubtlessly manage. Reports are that there is already a boom in real estate and rentals throughout the surrounding communities. I would not be suprised if this doesn't spread in a swath from Arizona to Virginia.
Those who have been un/under employed will need housing and support for a long time.
This will be an added burden on communities.

How many municipal adminstrators/managers/mayors are prepared to establish whole new communities/neighborhoods that likely will be dependent on municipal support?

It's one thing when this happens organically, over time.
It's another when it happens "overnight"

Americans are a compassionate, and sharing people.
But wholesale, rapid, change brings concerns.
We already have stories like this:
In Baton Rouge, a Tinge of Evacuee Backlash - New York Times

This was not a local disaster, this was a regional one.
The Port of New Orleans and Southern Lousiana is an important one for the entire country.
Repairs/Rebuilding/Restructuring will undoubtabley take place, but not overnight.

There need to be adjustments to plans and attitudes, on all sides, for many months, and years to come. This is where long term leadership will be displayed and tested.
Is the current Administration up to the task ?
Only time (and not the press and pundits, nor politicans) will tell.

Observation, having seen Cheney surveying the scene (last night's Network News)
Maybe it's time for KB&R (Kellogg Brown & Root, division of Halliburton) to step up, do a "at cost" rebuilding job. Payback for bad PR in Iraq.

Tom Barnett: (note that this was "Pre Cheney" photo-op)
Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog:

"Speaking of spreading it around (Lolita C. Baker, 'Halliburton Subsidiary Taps Contrract for Repairs, Washington Post, 5 September), no one should be surprised to see SysAdmin conttractor supremo Kellogg, Brown & Root at the forefront of the recovery efforts with Katrina. Last July it won a big Navy contract vehicle to be the company that comes in after big natural disasters and do clean-up. SysAdmin away, SysAdmin home. Seems pretty natural because it's basically the same all over. So don't expect KB&R to go away any time soon, no matter how stinky its past associations with Cheney might seem. It simply fills too big of a niche. On the contrary, expect more KB&Rs in the future, not less, and they will all seem cozy with the government because they'll always be picking up the 3D (dirty, dangerous, difficult) jobs that the Fed wants to outsource--both at home and in the Gap."

Stay tuned.
This (the recovery) will be a long term issue.

Geopolitics of New Orleans

From Stratfor - the geography of New Orleans and how it relates to the entire US, from the Rockies to the Appalachians. River shipping is cheap, allowing our crops to reach world marekets, as well as raw materials to reach the midwest.

Stratfor: "New Orleans is not optional for the United States' commercial infrastructure. It is a terrible place for a city to be located, but exactly the place where a city must exist. With that as a given, a city will return there because the alternatives are too devastating. The harvest is coming, and that means that the port will have to be opened soon. As in Iraq, premiums will be paid to people prepared to endure the hardships of working in New Orleans. But in the end, the city will return because it has to.

Geopolitics is the stuff of permanent geographical realities and the way they interact with political life. Geopolitics created New Orleans. Geopolitics caused American presidents to obsess over its safety. And geopolitics will force the city's resurrection, even if it is in the worst imaginable place."

Interesting Insight about New Orleans

Apparently from consultant involved with planning issues.

Interesting read.
Esp about ingrained fatalism of the population and difficulties in creating a "vision of the future"

I still have doubts about rebuilding or restoring the city in it's present location.

WorldChanging: Another World Is Here: Dreaming A New New Orleans, Version 1

"What follows are very preliminary thoughts on principles for eventually creating a 'New New Orleans,' one that is more environmentally secure, more economically successful, and more socially healthy and equitable, while retaining the culture that made it world famous. As the news reports continue to create a picture of the city's horrible descent into hell, such an exercise feels a bit foolhardy; but there is so much dreaming to be done, to restore this great and wondrous city, that the dreaming must begin now."

Attributed to Einstein :"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Scientists Comb a Ruined Coastline for Clues and Lessons - New York Times

"'We have never learned that lesson,' said Abby Sallenger, a scientist with the United States Geological Survey who has studied storm effects on the East and Gulf coasts for years. Dr. Sallenger does not advocate wholesale retreat from the coast, he said, but 'the coastal research community should come together and come to some conclusions about where it is safer to go.'

'What's happened before is you come back and you not only rebuild, you rebuild bigger,' he continued, but 'there are some places where you should think twice about putting up a pup tent.'

Scientists who want this point to be heard, and who think Hurricane Katrina may be an ideal opportunity to make it, are eager to obtain as much good data as possible about the storm and its effects."

More on the sinking city

A "must read" by John McPhee, first published in 1987 on the sinking city of New Orleans. (got the lead from Doc)

Looks hopeless to me.

The New Yorker: The Talk of the Town: "ARCHIVES
THE SUNKEN CITY
Issue of 2005-09-12
Posted 2005-09-03

excerpt:
"Among the five hundred miles of levee deficiencies now calling for attention along the Mississippi River, the most serious happen to be in New Orleans. Among other factors, the freeboard—the amount of levee that reaches above flood levels—has to be higher in New Orleans to combat the waves of ships. Elsewhere, the deficiencies are averaging between one and two feet with respect to the computed high-water flow line, which goes on rising as runoffs continue to speed up and waters are increasingly confined. Not only is the water higher. The levees tend to sink as well. They press down on the mucks beneath them and squirt materials out to the sides. Their crowns have to be built up. “You put five feet on and three feet sink,” a Corps engineer remarked to me one day."

(From “The Control of Nature: Atchafalaya,” which ran in the issue of February 23, 1987.)
"

Somehow this makes me a bit uneasy

From EMS Network site

Ambulance crash photo album :
here

By the Book

So much for individual initative.

Sounds a bit more like the old Soviet AirForce mode of total ground control.
I'll be that the superior officer hears about this one ...

Navy Pilots Who Rescued Victims Are Reprimanded - New York Times

"PENSACOLA, Fla., Sept. 6 - Two Navy helicopter pilots and their crews returned from New Orleans on Aug. 30 expecting to be greeted as lifesavers after ferrying more than 100 hurricane victims to safety.

Instead, their superiors chided the pilots, Lt. David Shand and Lt. Matt Udkow, at a meeting the next morning for rescuing civilians when their assignment that day had been to deliver food and water to military installations along the Gulf Coast."

Rebuild or not?

Wall St. Journal Poll
Self selected sample, unscientific, but interesting
As of 1:30 Tues 9/06/05 with some 12,000 votes, it's running 70/30 no on rebuild New Orleans

Wall Street Journal #3633.1

Various comments from "you can't not rebuild" to "scale back to industrial/port complex and related housing" to "rebuild on higher ground"

Bottom line being all of using taxpayer dollars to recreate the same risk profile with the same ultimate results in the future.

The Dutch have built a nation "below sea level" but "only" exposed to the storms of the North Sea, not to Cat 3-4-5 Hurricanes.

The city is not only below sea level, but has been sinking and will continue to do so.
Quote (not sure of the accurarcy, but interesting) that Cat 5 levees would be the equiliant of 10 hoover dams.

Let's just say "don't fight Mother Nature"

While we're at it, maybe apply rules to most Hurricane prone areas, no federal "flood insurance." Limit/Prohibit building on coastal areas which are at risk.

FEMA ?

From
jeffrey heer >> blog >> escher legos (heerforceone)

My title added

Rescue,Rebuild,Relocate

Watching AM Coverage on CNN (today, Tues 9/06/05)

Solidad with rescue crews.
Some folks refuse to leave their homes.
Understandable, if it is, as is likely, all they have.
But estimates on draining the neighborhoods being 30 days or more, maybe more than 60.
A long time to wait it out.

Rebuild debate will continue to grow.

Other coverage of folks moved to Houston.
Determined to rebuild their lives ... there.
Not returning.

Many may take the same path.
Time to move on.

First Responders

Very good insight
Damnation of DHS (Department of Homeland Security) for failure but also:

"...when you absolutely positively have to reestablish order and basic services in a matter of hours, it has to be a local response. The feds simply can't (or won't) move fast enough."

Amen

Layer on the information that the Governor was resisting the legal actions required for federal assistance as late as Friday night ...

Jeff Jarvis:
"Mayor Ray Nagin said he told the governor and the president to sit down and get their acts together. This is precisely what he meant. Note also that the mayor said he’d be happy to hand over authority to Gen. Russel Honore if that would get things done."


INTEL DUMP - -:

"Without a doubt, those local officials in New Orleans and the Gulf Coast were immediately overwhelmed by this disaster. So we should not heap a lot of blame on their shoulders. They were, quite literally, swamped. However, we should evaluate mechanisms (such as the 'mutual aid' agreements between municipal and county police in California) that enable local governments to cooperate and support each other's consequences management needs without any involvement from the federal government. FEMA's great for bringing in resources — especially money to rebuild. And the President decides to send them, the military can set up field hospitals and refugee camps in a hurry. But when you absolutely positively have to reestablish order and basic services in a matter of hours, it has to be a local response. The feds simply can't (or won't) move fast enough."