Not so fast Ivan

A little behind in posting this one, it's from late Oct.
Bottom line - Russia is history, not the future.

Put it real simply - Russians die early.
Layer on collapsing oil prices (how's your budget Mr. Putin?) and the threat shrinks.

Undefensible borders, declining population, struggles over power (aka "mafia") and they can be a nuisance but not a real threat.

Op-Ed Contributor - Rising Ambitions, Sinking Population - NYTimes.com:

"To international audiences transfixed by Moscow’s military swaggering in Georgia or dazzled by the newfound oil wealth of the Russian petro-state and its billionaires, this notion of an unstoppable Russian ascent may seem plausible, even compelling. To anyone who pays attention to population trends, however, it is absurd.

Russia is in the midst of a genuine demographic disaster from which its rulers have no obvious exit strategy. Although the Russia’s fortunes (and the Kremlin’s ambitions) have waxed on a decade of windfall profits from oil and gas, the human foundations of the Russian nation — the ultimate sources of the country’s wealth and power — are in increasingly parlous straits."

Earlier :

Russia: U.N. Warning on Population - New York Times:

Article Tools Sponsored By
By REUTERS
Published: April 29, 2008

Russia is doing too little to reverse a critical decline in its population driven by increasing alcohol abuse, poor diet and social change, a United Nations report said. Karl Kulessa, the United Nations Population Fund’s chief in Russia, said Russia’s population could fall to 100 million, from 142 million, in 40 to 50 years. Russia lost 400,000 to 650,000 people a year from 1992 to 2006. Life expectancy for men among the population of 142 million was 55 years in the 1990s, nearly 20 years less than in Western Europe. “There is no reason to assume that Russia can recover from the crisis and stabilize its population,” the report said. “The authors of this publication do not share the optimism of government officials who claim that Russia will succeed in halting the population decline by 2015 and increase the population to 145 million by 2025.”"