"History is a wonderful thing, if only it was true"
-Tolstoy

Friday, November 30, 2007

Does "The Donald" know this?

Donald Trump has been out touting Manhattan as "different" and unaffected by the housing slump.

Well, maybe not...
Esp. when Wall Street was behind the feeding of much of the sub-prime, structured "stuff" mess and there will be further losses and layoffs.

Chickens come home to roost.

They'll Take Manhattan -- For Less - WSJ.com:

"No Longer Immune, Sales and Prices Slip; Waiting for Bonus Time

November 30, 2007; Page W1 Even as the national housing market has been hit by slow sales and falling prices, Manhattan has continued to shine. But now its light may be dimming."

...

"Manhattan makes up a tiny fraction of U.S. home sales. Its housing market is closely watched, however, because of the city's position at the center of the financial and media worlds. In recent months, the continuing strength of its real-estate market has drawn even more attention, and led many local real-estate professionals to contend that Manhattan is immune to the forces that have battered much of the rest of the country.

But few independent experts buy that argument. Christopher Mayer, a Columbia University professor and director of the school's Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate, says the idea that Manhattan will continue to boom amid a nationwide housing bust is "wishful thinking."

"To be sure, almost no one is steeling for a crash in Manhattan. Prof. Roubini believes prices will fall 10% over the next two years, substantially less than the 30% or more he predicts will occur in many markets. Nationwide, existing-home prices were down 5.1% in October, and sales were down a seasonally adjusted 20.7%, according to the National Association of Realtors.

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