"History is a wonderful thing, if only it was true"
-Tolstoy

Friday, June 02, 2006

And they're off

Iowa Election Market launched yesterday

Iowa Electronic Markets ~ Current Markets: 2006 Congressional Election Markets

It will take time for the market to get up and running, but I've found them to, over time, be more accurate in "predicting" the final result(s) of elections than polls.

With polls, respondents reply with what they want or what they think is the "right" answer (or lie).
With Markets, participants reply with MONEY.

Example: you may want a Republican to win, but if in your heart of hearts, you don't think they have a chance, you "bet" that they will loose.

When the markets are thin, and/or when participants try to "game" them, others will gladly take their money.

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