"History is a wonderful thing, if only it was true"
-Tolstoy

Saturday, December 31, 2005

Hard Rain's a-gonna fall

Dutch Mandel of Autoweek calls it as he sees it.
Times are bad for Detroit, but likely will get worse.


AutoWeek:

"You’ve got to have a cataclysmic event. “I don’t see the UAW supporting this cataclysmic fix. I don’t see a negotiated long-term fix with the UAW’s participation.”

Hold on, says partner McKinley: “You can’t point fingers at the union. [During past negotiations] the union asked, and the industry gave it to them. Who is to blame: The chicken or the egg?”

What we have cannot continue. “The parallel is what we’re looking at in the United States in social security: Active employees pay for retirees,” McKinley says. “That is an unsustain�able model.”

This is not an overnight problem. It has been going on for decades. Guys at the top are playing not to lose rather than to win; a not-on-my-watch philosophy has made executives wary and cautious.

“You can’t compete with antiquated industrial facilities, labor structure and work rules,” Camp-bell says. “Without change, our hometown industry will go away—it will move from the Midwest completely—it will go to lower-cost areas. It will continue its move to southern states as have the transplants, and to other countries like China and India.

“Put this on a napkin, stick it in an envelope and put it under your mattress: Let’s look at this in 36 months. As soon as people can recognize this plague and can cut off the gangrenous appendages, the better off we will be. Will it be painful? Yes, but every day you wait, it gets worse.”"

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