Yup

Flop gear: the failure of Formula 1 - FT.com:

"Formula 1 racing is a sexy sport … so how come it’s also so incredibly boring? Seriously, it takes a particular kind of genius to take something whose components include astonishing cars, vast amounts of cash, high-speed chases, fit drivers and hot women hangers-on and turn it into an afternoon of mind-crushing dreariness."

Yup

Flop gear: the failure of Formula 1 - FT.com:

"Formula 1 racing is a sexy sport … so how come it’s also so incredibly boring? Seriously, it takes a particular kind of genius to take something whose components include astonishing cars, vast amounts of cash, high-speed chases, fit drivers and hot women hangers-on and turn it into an afternoon of mind-crushing dreariness."

Office in My head

I know how this feels : office full of people (topics) in my head

Javier Bardem On A 'Biutiful' Acting Career : NPR:

"DAVIES: I mean it's a really dramatic role. And one of the things that's fascinating to me about it is that it takes place in Cuba but much of the dialogue is in English. How is acting in English different from acting in Spanish for you?

Mr. BARDEM: It's a different, it's a totally different situation and it's like here, I'm trying to express myself and share some opinions and be relaxed and giving you what I think, giving you some thoughts about what I feel or what I think and there's this office in my brain full of people working at the same time that I'm talking to you trying to not, I mean, be wrong with the intonation, with the words and so it's very exhausting."

Change you can believe in ...

Restrict domestic drilling but open SPR, but no, it's not political ...

White House taps reserves with eye on votes - FT.com:

"The decision to release oil from the SPR caused surprise in Washington, with analysts saying it was unprecedented because the US has released oil only twice before – after the 1991 Gulf war and after hurricane Katrina.
Even after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the Bush administration decided against using the SPR on the grounds that oil supplies were not affected.
Since the Libyan conflict has been going on for almost four months, the move fuelled suggestions that the administration’s motives are purely political.
The White House denied this, saying oil was being released because the president was concerned about the “greater tightness” in the market because the conflict in Libya had taken 140m barrels out of global supply. Hurricane Katrina resulted in the loss of only 38m barrels, a senior administration official said."

Change you can believe in

Water boarding is evil, targeted assassinations are OK.

A weak America roars but retreats when the going gets tough | The A-List | Must-read views on today’s top news stories – FT.com – FT.com:

"Imagine how these same liberals would have reacted three years ago if it had been George W. Bush who had been ordering a campaign of targeted assassinations – not to mention overriding legal advice on the decision to launch air strikes against the Libyan government."

What can happen to hype

Can Think's electric car revolutionize the auto industry? - August 1, 2007

"There is a fundamental shift happening that is going to require new business models," says Ed Kjaer, an electric vehicle veteran who runs the EV program for Southern California Edison. "The timing is right. We are on a path now toward electric cars, and there is no going back."

Norwegian EV maker Think files for bankruptcy - AutoWeek: today


"Tiny electric car maker Think Global AS filed for bankruptcy today in its home market of Norway after attempts to keep the company going through recapitalization and restructuring failed, the company said in a statement. It is the fourth time Think has collapsed financially in its 20-year history"

Juxtaposition

Fascinating visit this week


Computer History Museum | At the Museum


and just finished reading


Bob Lutz's book 'Car Guys vs Bean Counters' (excerpt)


Columnists | Lutz says business theorists hurt auto industry more than UAW | The Detroit News


"...it is the management style of the big car makers that was the principle reason for the domestic industry's demise, led by theorists with impressive MBA degrees from the top universities who had massive IQs but no common sense, in Lutz's view.

"For the better part of my career, I have seen what these bright, analytical, dispassionate, data-driven geniuses have done to our country's industry and commerce. Through a relentless pursuit of 'winning strategies' and elaborate 'missions, values and goals' statements - which incidentally, consume vast amounts of non-value-added time - these modern MBA graduates reject the obvious as being 'simplistic' and believe that elaborate alternative scenario planning and 'test wells' will provide a better (if not logical) answer," he says.

'Throw the intellectuals out'

"(Successful entrepreneurs like Steve Jobs of Apple and Britain's Sir Richard Branson) have a blissful lack of awareness of the analytical science of business. Uninfected by the MBA virus, they simply strive to offer a better product, one that delights the customer. They control costs, of course. And they tolerate a necessary level of bureaucracy. It's essential. But the focus is on the product or service ... thus the customer. American business needs to throw the intellectuals out and get back to business!"

So is there a disconnect? 

Not really

In business, you need passion for the product and/or service.

But, the age of the computer allows fast, detailed collection and analysis of data, which can (and should) be used to sharpen focus, improve speed to market, communications and all in all make business better.

I would agree with Lutz that data and analysis should not run the business

Computers and systems are tools

Lutz vs the MBA's

Just like economics is not a "science" maybe business isn't either

Make delightful products, and or deliver delightful service and your company will work.

Beguile with quality not baffle with BS

"Lutz reckons that his experience is not just applicable to the automotive industry, but to business generally.

"Shoemakers should be run by shoe guys and software firms by software guys and supermarkets by supermarket guys. With the advice and support of their bean counters, absolutely, but with the final word going to those who live and breathe the customer experience. Passion and drive for excellence will win over the computer-like dispassionate, analysis-driven philosophy every time," Lutz said."

Columnists | Lutz says business theorists hurt auto industry more than UAW | The Detroit News:

"For the better part of my career, I have seen what these bright, analytical, dispassionate, data-driven geniuses have done to our country's industry and commerce. Through a relentless pursuit of 'winning strategies' and elaborate 'missions, values and goals' statements - which incidentally, consume vast amounts of non-value-added time - these modern MBA graduates reject the obvious as being 'simplistic' and believe that elaborate alternative scenario planning and 'test wells' will provide a better (if not logical) answer," he says.

'Throw the intellectuals out'

"(Successful entrepreneurs like Steve Jobs of Apple and Britain's Sir Richard Branson) have a blissful lack of awareness of the analytical science of business. Uninfected by the MBA virus, they simply strive to offer a better product, one that delights the customer. They control costs, of course. And they tolerate a necessary level of bureaucracy. It's essential. But the focus is on the product or service ... thus the customer. American business needs to throw the intellectuals out and get back to business!"

excerpt

This book is about what happened to America’s competitiveness, and why. Most of the examples and observations are from the automobile sector, for the simple reason that that’s what I know best, and I was a participant in the decades-long decline of General Motors. But the creeping malignancy that transformed the once all-powerful, world-dominating American economy from one that produced and exported to one that trades and imports is now common to all or most sectors.

It really boils down to a matter of focus, priorities, and business philosophy. Leaders who are predominantly motivated by financial reward, who bake that reward into the business plan and then manipulate all other variables to “hit that number,” will usually not hit the number, or, if they do, then only once. But the enterprise that is focused on excellence and on providing superior value will see revenue materialize and grow, and will be rewarded with good profit. Is profit an integral part of the business equation and a God-given right, no matter how compromised the product or service? Or is the financial result an unpredictable reward, bestowed upon the business by satisfied customers?

To some restaurant owners, people booking reservations weeks in advance is a sign that “we did something wrong.” Perhaps the food is too good . . . best to back off a bit on the quality of the meat and produce. Ease off on the butter! We’ll reduce cost, improve margins! And the customers, presumably, will keep coming, right?

But to other owners, the excess demand is a sign of success, of the formula working, of customers appreciating the value of their efforts. In this case, profit can be increased by selective higher pricing to keep the waiting times reasonable while gaining a premium reputation. Want to guess which restaurant will be in business longer, and be more successful?

surprise surprise

Unemployment and construction trades

Jobless Rate Below Average in 25 States - Real Time Economics - WSJ:

"Joblessness has mostly fallen nationwide but the pace of improvement has varied widely. Western states, many of which were battered by the housing bust, are still plagued by high unemployment rates. Meanwhile, conditions have improved greatly in the Midwest, helped along by a strong manufacturing recovery. The Midwest and Northeast reported the lowest jobless rates regionally."

History

Visited the Computer History Museum yesterday


Wow
It's all there


Flashbacks to my own, meager, exposure 
Brief video covers most of it for me
The Art of Writing Software - CHM Revolution


Fortran - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia "Formula Translation" and the need to develop a language higher than machine language (binary code) 


I hired on to do punch cards for MSU Grad Students while in high school, learning a bit of Fortran in the process


Later, pretty much passed on Cobol COBOL - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia and picked up a bit of Basic BASIC - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia to run on my first Apple II

While I managed to develop a basic financial oriented program (as if my lines of code could be describe as such) that would plot cyclic data patterns (stocks) it was cumbersome and not time efficient. I could manage to follow a handful of stocks, updated at the end of the day.


Then: VisiCalc 1979

Bob Frankston and Dan Brinklin

Harvard MBA candidate Daniel Bricklin and programmer Robert Frankston developed VisiCalc, the program that made a business machine of the personal computer, for the Apple II. VisiCalc (forVisible Calculator) automated the recalculation of spreadsheets. A huge success, more than 100,000 copies sold in one year.





Spreadsheets !!!


A higher level of data manipulation and I was home
Been working with spreadsheets ever since. 
When "macros" were introduced, I commented "looks like code - I don't do code anymore"

Home Ownership Matters ???

From Lansing Business Monthly


Plethora of inconsistent thought, so I'll reply (in red)


Home Ownership Matters

Recently there have been some in the media and academia questioning the value of homeownership. They ask if perhaps we would be better off as a nation of renters. This couldn’t be more wrong. Homeownership provides a litany of benefits for our nation, our community and for individual homeowners.

From the national perspective the 67 percent of American households that are homeowners pay 80 to 90 percent of individual federal income taxes which support programs that benefit all Americans. Research shows that for every home purchased $60,000 is pumped into the economy for furniture, home improvements and related items. Housing accounts for 15 percent of our gross domestic product.

GDP ... really?

Ongoing promotion of a consumer economy, without reference to source of products.

Does this help American production?

For our community, homeownership is critically important. In late 2010 the National Association of REALTORS® and Harris Interactive surveyed 1,880 homeowners and 1,115 renters about their community and quality of life. Though no causal relationship could be established, there is a strong correlation between owning a home and community satisfaction, quality of life, community connection, civic engagement and volunteerism.

"no causal relationship" ... then state correlation

Data please. What about urban areas where there are many long term renters.

Homeowners are often the glue that holds a community together. They do not move as often, vote and volunteer more, and bring stability to neighborhoods which helps reduce crime and support upkeep. Homeowners report enjoying a better quality of life, are happier and healthier, and feel a greater sense of control over their lives.

do not move-but now talent is tied down - double edged sword

According to a recent white paper by the National Association of REALTORS® titled “The Social Benefits of Homeownership” owner’s children tend to do better in school and stay in school longer.

unbiased source!

For the individual, besides the quality of life and health benefits, there are significant financial benefits of home ownership as well. Data from the Federal Reserve show a very real and extreme disparity in wealth between owners and renters. In 2007, the median net worth of home-owning families was $234,200 compared with $5,100 for renting families. The disparity has existed for many years and will continue to exist despite a decline in home values. Why is this?

health?

disparity of wealth - no chicken and  egg reasoning here!

A homeowner’s equity in a home links a piece of their financial portfolio to the long-term growth of the economy. As our economy improves, homeowners will benefit. Real estate has greatly outperformed the stock market over the past 10 years despite declining values. With real estate you get to live in and enjoy your investment daily.

what benchmarks?

housing bubble followed the stock market bubble of the late 90's 

now housing prices down the last 5 years about 30% while S&P is about flat since 2000 (not including dividends), my conclusion - total BS 

S&P 500 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

No provision for transaction costs, realtors, closing costs, finance costs.

The portion of the mortgage payment that goes to principal repayment is not a cost of home ownership, it is forced monthly savings. As a forced monthly savings it is disciplined and largely painless.

forced monthly savings - if your property increases in value and we aren't even talking liquidity, which doesn't exist in today's market.

compare to constant dollar investments - invest the same amount in equities every month, if the prices are high, you buy less, if prices are low, you buy more shares.

Home ownership costs are generally stable while rents rise on the average of 3 percent a year. Renters are paying the landlord’s mortgage and homeowners pay themselves. Homeowners can also deduct mortgage interest and property taxes from their federal income tax. No wonder homeowners’ net worth is so much higher.

ownership costs - let's talk property taxes ...

will grant that there is a tax policy bias towards home ownership
if one does a bit of research, you would find that the genesis of tax law came about during the Great Depression, with an eye to both stability of the workforce for employers and assistance to this same population who otherwise had become more migrant
simply - to try to head off social unrest


today, you can have ossification of the work force where they cannot move to where there are better jobs if they are tied to failing property, having placed too much of their investment in an illiquid asset.

Here in Greater Lansing the opportunity for home ownership is better than it’s been in decades. Due to declines in average selling prices over the past four years and low mortgage rates we haven’t seen in 50 years, affordability here is remarkable. The average household income in Lansing would qualify for the conventional purchase of the median-priced home in most communities and low down payment FHA loans put houses in reach that would not have been possible for buyers just a few years ago. In fact, for first-time buyers, investors and move-up buyers it is hard to imagine a better time to buy.

opportunity for home ownership is better = prices are down

Improvements in the local economy including insurance company and auto-related hiring, declining unemployment and increased construction spending coupled with recovering IRAs and investment portfolios will contribute to a rise in confidence which will lead to rising home prices and sales volume. Anyone who has considered buying and qualifies for a mortgage should seriously consider participating in the American Dream now and begin to enjoy the many benefits of home ownership. Additionally, the national and local governments should do everything possible to support home ownership because it really does matter.

we are in the mess with home prices, in large part because of a national obsession, both parties, for increased home ownership - getting people who cannot handle home ownership into homes.

the market is suffering the hangover from a bubble of Brobdingnagian proportions 

nationally, almost a quarter of all homeowners are "under water" (owe more than their homes are worth)

Number Of Underwater Mortgages Rises As More Homeowners Fall Behind

further comment : 
US Housing Crisis Officially As Bad As Great Depression - CNBC
It's official: The housing crisis that began in 2006 and has recently entered a double dip is now worse than the Great Depression.

Prices have fallen some 33 percent since the market began its collapse, greater than the 31 percent fall that began in the late 1920s and culminated in the early 1930s, according to Case-Shiller data.

and 

"Yet other factors are constraining the market.

After the fallout from the subprime debacle, in which millions lost their homes when they defaulted on loans they could not afford, banks changed underwriting standards.

More than four in every five mortgages now require a down payment of 20 percent, and credit history standards have tightened. At the same time, foreclosures continue at a brisk pace, pushing more supply onto the market and pressuring prices downward."

Debbie Barnett is the president and owner of Tomie Raines, Inc. The company was founded in 1977 and Barnett has owned the company since 2002. She began her real estate career and was an award-winning agent with two other local firms before joining Tomie Raines, Inc. in 1995. Barnett also owns TRI Title Agency and Tomie Raines Home Warranty Company.

High Oil Prices ...a drag on the economy

Guess you can't have your cake and eat it too.
The administration cannot afford, for votes, to admit policy of high oil prices

For Obama, High Oil Prices Have a Green Lining - BusinessWeek:

"Truth be told, higher prices are what it takes to change the energy consumption habits of large numbers of Americans. 'Somehow we have to figure out how to boost the price of gasoline to the levels in Europe,' Energy Secretary Steven Chu told The Wall Street Journal in 2008 when he was director of the University of California's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Chu has backed away from that view since taking office."

Housing?

Paraphrase "when will they ever learn?"

Housing vs productive work.

Housing drives sprawl, a consumption mentality, a debt driven economy, work force tied to location.

Wrong.

The Economy and D.C. - Renewed Weakness - NYTimes.com: "Of course, doing no harm will not be enough. The economy needs help, like direct federal job creation and options for homeowners to reduce the principal on troubled loans."

Because

Doc Searls Weblog : Poetry

It's time

Housing ? hah

Tom Keene Talks to Ed Yardeni - BusinessWeek:

"What flavor of crisis are we having right now?

All in all, we are still trying to dig out from under all the debt that accumulated over the past decade.

The 10-year yield is now around 3 percent. What does that say about expectations for slow growth?
The bond yield to me is the market's assessment of what the growth rate is for nominal GDP on a year-over-year basis, and 3 percent is pretty pathetic.

We come to June with 9 percent unemployment. What portion of that is structural, and what is cyclical?
There's a structural component. There's still a lot of people who were employed in housing industries who just haven't moved on.

It seems the next hurdle for housing is straightening out the paperwork.
No, it's not. It's mold and mildew. You are right that there's all this paperwork. It takes forever to foreclose on a house, and it's not even clear if you've got the right papers. So the buyer might say, well, I'm not convinced that everything's legal here. And so houses are on the market that are owned by the banks, they're sort of in limbo, and they're starting to deteriorate in quality. It's a major problem.

When do we get back to normal with housing?
Look, it could be seven, it could be 10 years, all total."

Investments

Wall Street’s biggest secret - MarketWatch

Value wins, invest in profit-producing assets.

"This free lunch proves that the market is far from perfectly “efficient.” Haugen himself argues it drives “a stake through the heart of the efficient market hypothesis.”

Even members of the efficient market cult have been forced to concede some of these points. For decades they maintained that to earn higher returns, you needed to take on more volatility, or “risk.” Then they looked again at the data and realized it wasn’t quite true. They admitted, instead, that small companies had done better than large companies. And value stocks had done better than growth stocks – even though they entailed less risk."

Energy Debate

Nuke-em and Gas-em

What is really needed is conservation and application of technology

The Cost of Renewable Energy Sources - NYTimes.com:

"Such profligate use of resources is the antithesis of the environmental ideal. Nearly four decades ago, the economist E. F. Schumacher distilled the essence of environmental protection down to three words: “Small is beautiful.” In the rush to do something — anything — to deal with the intractable problem of greenhouse gas emissions, environmental groups and policy makers have determined that renewable energy is the answer. But in doing so they’ve tossed Schumacher’s dictum into the ditch.

All energy and power systems exact a toll. If we are to take Schumacher’s phrase to heart while also reducing the rate of growth of greenhouse gas emissions, we must exploit the low-carbon energy sources — natural gas and, yes, nuclear — that have smaller footprints."

Not No Nukes, but rather New Nukes

What's next for nuclear power: Nathan Myhrvold - Fortune Features:

"When your kids are afraid of the dark or the bogeyman under the bed, the appropriate thing as a parent is to be sensitive to their fears but also not to panic yourself. And in the same way, society has to draw conclusions based on engineering and science about what actually happened in Japan, what could have been done differently, how serious an issue this would be in other places, and make a rational decision on nuclear power. I am confident that a rational decision would say, 'Nuclear power is a super-important part of our future.'"

Demographics rule

Robert Doll: The Bullish Case for the U.S. Economy - WSJ.com

Europe slips and slides, Japan is worse, China will slow

US wins