There Goes the Neighborhood

At least we live outside of town ...
Site ranks Traverse City 2nd in top places to live

Saturday Project

New Boat Hoist



Archive photos of the old lift : Seeberger Lift - a photoset on Flickr

Construction of new one: Boat hoist - a photoset on Flickr

New going together with white oak for the "hoops" - the verticals and crossbars, these carry the load.

The old lift dis-assembled and new one to fit dimensions of "Chip's Ahoy"
Chip's Ahoy Restoration - a photoset on Flickr

One of my few indulgences
She turns 60 just a few weeks after I do ...

Not so Green after all?

Global Warming - Carbon Dioxide - Environment - Climate Change - Air Pollution - New York Times:

"The worst of the carbon-offset programs resemble the Catholic Church's sale of indulgences back before the Reformation,%u201D said Denis Hayes, the president of the Bullitt Foundation, an environmental grant-making group. %u201CInstead of reducing their carbon footprints, people take private jets and stretch limos, and then think they can buy an indulgence to forgive their sins.

This whole game is badly in need of a modern Martin Luther, D Mr. Hayes added."

Are the candidates listening?

Alternative to "Corn Flakes"

This one might make sense, CO from industrial processes converted to Ethanol... not relying on Govt programs to convert corn ...

Carbon Gas Is Explored as a Source of Ethanol - New York Times:

"SAN FRANCISCO, April 23 : A New Zealand company said Monday that it had secured financing from an investor in Silicon Valley to produce ethanol from an untapped source of carbon monoxide gas. The company, LanzaTech, based in Auckland, said it had developed a fermentation process in which bacteria consume carbon monoxide and produce ethanol. Ethanol can be used as an alternative fuel or an octane-boosting, pollution-reducing additive to gasoline."

As opposed to wrong headed policies which are a flat out bad idea.
Check this:
Foreign Affairs - How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor - C. Ford Runge and Benjamin Senauer

Even Greener and Greener

BP Global - Environment and society - Carbon footprint calculator

Used a different "carbon footprint calculator" (BP) and found that our "footprint" may be even smaller.

Combined with our prior calculation on our woodlot, it looks like we may sequester 245% of the carbon we generate.

Lots of assumptions in these tools, so I'll be real conservative and call it 2:1

Then we take a look at the rest of our woodlot:

Factors Controlling Long- and Short-Term Sequestration of Atmospheric CO2 in a Mid-latitude Forest -- Barford et al. 294 (5547): 1688 -- Science:

"Net uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2)measured by eddy covariance in a 60- to 80-year-old forest averaged2.0 (plus or minus) 0.4 megagrams of carbon per hectare per year during 1993 to 2000, with interannual variations exceeding 50%. Biometry indicated storage of 1.6 (plus or minus) 0.4 megagrams of carbon per hectare per year over 8 years, 60% in live biomass and the balance in coarse woody debris and soils, confirming eddy-covariance results.
Weather and seasonal climate (e.g., variations in growing-season length or cloudiness) regulated seasonal and interannual fluctuations of carbon uptake. Legacies of prior disturbance and management, especially stand age and composition, controlled carbon uptake on the decadal time scale, implying that eastern forests could be managed for sequestration of carbon."

Taking the lower end of the estimates, it looks like we almost match our footprint with the non-pine portion of our lot.
"Back of envelope" (spreadsheet) numbers look like sequestration of over 22 tons.

BP Calculator came up with footprint of 25 tons.

"Carbon Footprint" (Carbon Footprint calculator) came in around 32.5 to 35 depending on some assumptions.

"Climate Crisis" )An Inconvenient Truth > Carbon Calculator) came in between 22.5 and 25 depending on assumptions.

Greenery

Well, with Earth Day and all the concomitant news and feature stories tied to the “Greenhouse” and carbon issues I decided to do some rough checks on our household “budget”

Quick check online and found Carbon Footprint calculator

Pulled together some good estimates (I happen to track our uses) and the results run something like this

All real estate (utilities use) comes to about 35metric tons of CO2, layer on assumed other use (per the calculator) and we get about 40 metric tons.

Then checking the carbon sequestration of just our red pine acres (about 15) and we get a number of about 60 metric tons annual “capture” (from an EPA site I lost track of)

This gives us from 150 to 175% capture vs generation, without even calculating an additional 35 acres of hardwoods, various other plantings and the like.

I feel better already, and don't need to "buy" carbon credits like some politicians seem to do.

I'll now probably try to refine my numbers, hopefully feel even better (G).

Unclear Concept

Or maybe "Fuzzy Logic"
Agressive move into a dying business.

Yahoo Strikes Ad Deal With More Papers - New York Times:
"On Monday, Yahoo announced a broad deal with publishers representing 264 newspapers to sell national advertising across their Web sites. It may be the clearest sign to date of the company's efforts to extend its advertising platform beyond the panoply of Yahoo sites."

This followed by news of earnings drop of 11%

Some BIG Trees

Capping our first day up the coast we visited Armstrong Redwoods

Some damn big trees, even if not quite as big as some of the "Giant Sequoia" further inland.



I guess that, on average they stand 5plus times as tall as our pines, and, of course, much greater diameter ... but then our pines are just over 45 years old, not up to 1400 years!

A few more shots here (Redwoods - a photoset on Flickr)

California Cruizer

Posted recap or our brief trip to Russian River and Napa here : Earthy Delights: California Dream'n


Here's the rental car we cruised in. Strange "features" that we finally got use to. Things like having to jiggle the steering wheel to get the ignition to work, and annoying "alarm" linked to the top being down. If I only lowered the top to where the servo motors whined, not continued until they "chirped" there was an alarm at low speed telling us that the top was down ... like duh!




Overall an OK car, but more styling than substance. It's actually not that much smaller than my 93 Seville, and has excess headroom - maybe six inches worth. Little trunk space, small rear seat, long expanse of dash.
But it was a rental, the only rag-tops they had.

Even with temps in the high 50's we got our dose of sunshine.

Visit to Montera

Sideways

Couple of day side trip to Sonoma and Napa
Blogging unlikely for a bit

nice drive up Rt 1 from SanFran - almost miss having a 'cyle for this leg ... somethign sorta lazy with lots of torque

instead, we had a wierd V-Dub convert ... odd car.
top down most of the day, soaking up Vitamin D, mid 50's almost warm for us

more likely later

Lives on the Record and on the Web - New York Times

Not much bloggin
On left coast with daughter/grandson
But friend Keith had this piece today ...
Read it
Lives on the Record and on the Web - New York Times

Reflecting on the late great PCForum

Looney Dunes: Loss

Some email "conversations" today and I have yet to post on all the wonderful people I met over the years (trying to promise to do so...)

I have been reflecting on Esther's decision to wrap it all up.

Seems that maybe there isn't all that much left to create/invent.
A new Google?
I don't think so.

Thinking about electricity, Edison and Telsa created major infrastructure, microwaves and toasters, power tools and PC's are applications.

The internet and IT are now ubiquitous, there will be many many applications, but will there be revolutions?

Some posts and comments on Education

John Robb's Weblog: Pull Education

and

John Robb's Weblog: Lifelong learning for Alumni

Back on VRM topic

Got home last night/late afternoon just as we got some good rain/wind
About half an hour later, just as we'd finished unpacking, power went out.

Couple hours later, set up generator, and run to "Art's" (Tim is smart and has big generator... everybody knows there's a hot meal and cold beer at Art's) for supper.

Around 8-8:30 I call our electric company to get an idea about when to expect power back on.

Well, the robo-voice passed me off to a "real live person" because we've consolidated all of our accounts.

Lame-o can't find our address, multiple "please spell your last name", "please repeat your phone number" queries.

I pointed out that the whole damn area was out, but he thought we were in Bay City, not Maple City ... come on...
Simple: I enter my phone number for the robo-voice, you DON'T need MY particular address, there are Consumer Power trucks out on the road!!!
Just tell me what your system has for anticipated power restoration...

And for what it's worth, there is info on the web (without power, how do I get to the the damn web?)

About that locking gas cap

Remember the 70's gas lines ...
Well, in real terms, prices may be the same, but behavior is different
Drivers Shrug as Gasoline Prices Soar - New York Times

I'd been meaning to look for data to support my thinking, but the article covers it.
Although on an inflation adjusted basis, gas may be nearing the point they were during the crunch of the mid 70's, folks are not changing habits ... much.

My supposition is that fuel costs are a smaller portion of the family budget.

And when was the last time you saw a locking gas cap?

North East Asia "stuff"

Posting some NYTimes pieces before clearing bookmarks

Quickie on history
North Korea - China - Japan - South Korea - Nuclear Disarmament - New York Times:

" History can be omnipresent or repressed in northeast Asia, but nearly everyone agrees it is festering and unresolved. Historic resentments and nationalist anger are volatile and easily inflamed, as evidenced by the outrage that followed recent comments by Japan%u2019s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, about Korean %u201Ccomfort women%u201D in World War II. Yet, most often, that anger is compartmentalized to protect the hum of commerce. China and Japan conduct record bilateral trade even as public attitudes in both countries can range anywhere from mutual distrust to open loathing."

Then we have this
Japan Minister Raps "Blond" Diplomats in Mideast - New York Times
Posted in full :

"TOKYO, March 22 (Reuters) - Blond, blue-eyed Westerners probably can't be as successful at Middle East diplomacy as Japanese with their ``yellow faces,'' Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso was quoted by media as saying on Wednesday.

``Japan is doing what Americans can't do,'' the Nikkei business daily quoted the gaffe-prone Aso as saying in a speech.

``Japanese are trusted. If (you have) blue eyes and blond hair, it's probably no good,'' he said.

``Luckily, we Japanese have yellow faces.''

Foreign Ministry officials were unable to comment on the report, which said Aso elaborated by saying Japan had never exploited the Middle East, started a war there or fired a shot.

Aso, seen in some circles as a contender to succeed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe if the Japanese leader runs into trouble in a July election for parliament's upper house, is known for verbal gaffes.

He offended South Korea with remarks in 2003 that were interpreted in Seoul as trying to justify some of Japan's actions during its 1910-1945 colonization of the Korean peninsula.

He also drew criticism in 2001 when, as economics minister, he said he hoped to make Japan the kind of country where ``rich Jews'' would want to live.

Aso said then he had not intended to be discriminatory.

Japan has long felt it has a special role to play in the Middle East because it lacks much of the political baggage of the United States, allowing for warmer ties with Arab nations.

Last week Tokyo hosted four-way talks aimed at working toward peace in the Middle East, involving Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Territories as well as Japan.

Abe's government has been battered by a series of problematic remarks by cabinet ministers this year, including the health minister's reference to women as ``birth-giving machines'' and Aso's own description of Washington's occupation strategy in Iraq as ``immature.''

Long time ago

Friend sent me link to GoogleVideo of "Nelson's 24" from 1983

Seems like just a few years ago (hah) I was involved in Motorcycle racing.
Ended up running a team at Nelson's Ledges for the "24 hour"
The race would start 4PM on Saturday, and simply run till 4PM Sunday.

Manged to win in '77 against the odds, esp. as we were running a Ducati (not known as an Endurance Racer at the time). But it was fast, and (relatively) fuel efficient. We did a rider change stop every hour, but fuel only every other stop. With lap times around 1:30, saving maybe 30 seconds an hour adds up (we were limited to filling through the stock gas cap). Later I developed a system that dumped about a gallon a second through the same 1-1.5inch opening.

We were also limited to all stock parts on the wheels, so came up with a few trick tools for tire changes. Managed about 90seconds. Today, with special parts, it's about 10 second job.

Trick is planning and organization more than absolute speed. This includes riders that are consistent as well as fast, yet don't crash. Crashing really slows down your overall pace.

Anyway there's a video of one of the '83 race here

I was done entering my own team by then ('83) but was helping others with management and planning.

Looking at the video now... wow, the place was a dump, and we were all pretty scruffy, but winning felt pretty good. We went on to win the "National Championship" that year. Tried again in '78 but crashed out.

Doppelgänger

Contrary to what some have thought, it's not me on
"Dancing with the Stars"
It's John Ratzengerger

Journalism 101+

Or Journalism unplugged

The Doc Searls Weblog : Saturday, March 24, 2007

Aside, well over a decade ago, in conversation with an old (late) friend in the journalism business I suggested the "end of newspapers" ... well, it's taken a long time, but it's coming fast.

Some may survive, but the old model is broken.

More on Climate and Cents

Further comments on my reaction to Gore's movie
Looney Dunes: Comprehensive Reply to AIT

As I'd posted before, my reaction to “An Inconvenient Truth” mainly arose from spotting statements or implications that I think are plainly false.

One example : near the end, Al goes into fuel economy standards and draws conclusion(s) that US Automakers are failing because of these standards.
I'm going to paraphrase, not having the exact text.

Gore shows, graphically, what current and future standards are/will be in various countries/markets. EU, Japan, Canada(I believe), China and the US.

Then he either states, or implies, that the lower CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy)American standards means that American Car Companies can't or won't be able to sell into China.

Wrong! - this is Fleet Average, there are cars that get higher than the standard mileage and those that get lower. American Manufactures can and DO sell into the Chinese market.

Furthermore, the North American auto industry is robust, it's the Detroit "Big" Three that are hurting, in large part due to their labor cost structure. This is not a slam on the unions, but the Japanese (and other) manufacturers do NOT have the same legacy costs.
And Toyota is rolling out Big, lower mileage, Trucks.

Another consideration ... gasoline is cheap here, $2.50 Gas is about the same as 65cent gas in 1975.

I don't have hard data, but consumer behavior (buying larger cars/trucks) indicates that their budgets can handle the cost.

Raise prices, behavior will change (after grumbling).

Back to AIT ... it's when I see what I believe to be a wrong statement or implication, I start to question other data.

Enough rant
On to other considerations, cost savings.
Keith and family chose to go to compact fluorescents (CF):
Modeshift � Blog Archive � What Is Al Gore Up To?

Regardless of Climate Change, this is becoming a sensible move.

I've uses CF's for many years, in a mix with incandescent and halogen lighting.
Incandescent mainly as they are dim-able.
Just this year, I learned that there are now dim-able CF's. I'll be looking at cycling these in as the old bulbs burn out.

I'm also looking at LED's. Some stuff here: LED Lighting for even more savings.

Layer on the fact that I took advantage of Carter's tax credits and have used Solar Water heating (pre-heating our well water) for decades, I applaud techniques and technologies to save bucks.

All of this may, or may not, "save the planet" but I know it will save our household budget some bucks.

It just makes "cents"

PS : we gave CF's this last Christmas to most of the families we celebrate with.
(and this was before we saw Gore's movie)

Beach VolleyBall

So your's truly does the set, Doc gets the spike...
The Doc Searls Weblog : Friday, March 23, 2007

Clarification of my "markets as conversations" pondering

And if you know either Doc or me, the Volley Ball image might be a bit weird (ok ok ... good for a snicker)

The Future (?) of Advertising/Marketing

Good quick commentary on "Pay per action"
The Doc Searls Weblog : Wednesday, March 21, 2007

with relevant links.

As for Doc ... Hugh has some comments here:
gapingvoid: "cartoons drawn on the back of business cards": edelman talk

Cluetrain is a "must read" (markets are conversations) but do I REALLY NEED a conversation with the supplier of toilet paper?
Unique products and services, but commodity items?

Still mulling this over, some products and maybe services are "commodity" by nature. Even some media ... I don't have to talk back to NYTimes, just dip into the info-stream over morning coffee.

Why China will hit the wall ... Hard

China is speeding for the demographic wall and there is little it can do about it.

Of all the major nations, China will hit the wall the fastest.
This is the result of the "one child" policy.
China will be old and still relatively poor soon

My opinion : China will not be a strategic threat, it needs it's young men working and creating wealth, not fighting.

"China Scrambles for Stability as Its Workers Age - New York Times:
"The proportion of people 60 and older is growing faster in China than in any other major country, with the number of retirees set to double between 2005 and 2015, when it is expected to reach 200 million. By mid- century, according to United Nations projections, roughly 430 million people - about a third of the population- will be retirees."

Other key quotes:

"...the Chinese economy, which has thrived for decades on the cheap labor of hundreds of millions of young, uneducated workers from the countryside. Changes in the country’s population structure are taking place hand in hand with changes in the structure of the Chinese family. China’s one-child policy, which began in 1980, means that, beginning with the current generation of young adults, couples will face the difficult task of caring for four parents through old age.

By the same token, the ratio of workers to retired people will decline from about six to one now to about two to one by 2040."

and

"The bind that China finds itself in takes form in an often-posed question: Can the country grow rich before it grows old? Increasingly, experts here say the answer, which also has huge implications for the global economy, appears doubtful."

Halfway

Lots of references

We live at the 45th parallel (well, close enough, maybe 12miles from exact point) halfway between the equator and north pole

Earth Day, Vernal Equinox (well it was last night)
halfway between Winter and Summer Solstice

My stance on Global Warming:
halfway between the Chicken Littles (and politicians running for office) and the nay-sayers.

I don't by the end of the world Hollywood hype, but don't see any problem with addressing pollution (such as non CO2 output of coal burning, heavy metals, radiation and the like). But see no reason not to go for cost savings on a personal level.

Politics : I'm devout and practicing independent, with no interest in radical left or right. I'm disappointed that we lack a voice for the vast middle of the road.

Halfway.

Comprehensive Reply to AIT

Spent some time yesterday looking for transcript of "An Inconvenient Truth", without success other than a book that apparently matches closely.
This AM a friend alerted me to this : CEI (Competitive Enterprise Institute) critique of Gore's movie.


I'd been bothered by Gore's highly selective use of data and presentation.
Take the following with a grain of salt, same as when viewing AIT.
Judge for ourself about Competitive Enterprise Institute: Advancing Liberty, Public Policy Research, CEI

It's about 150 pages, but does a good job of addressing, what I view as, flaws, extremely selective use of data and misleading images/impressions.

Author Marlo Lewis takes AIT on point by point.

Intro:
"More people will see the movie, An Inconvenient Truth (AIT), than will read the book. However, the two are so close in verbal content and visual imagery that, if you’ve seen the movie, you’ve practically read the book, and vice versa.

Because it is much easier to reference pages in a book than scenes from a movie,
the Skeptic’s Guide comments on the book version of AIT.

To minimize redundancy, the Skeptic’s Guide skips over introductory material that Vice President Gore develops in greater detail later in AIT. In most cases, passages from AIT are reproduced verbatim. In cases where passages are summarized, this will be clear from the context.

AIT does not have distinct chapters. To help the reader follow the sequence of topics under discussion, I divide the Skeptic’s Guide into several sections. My commentary mostly follows the running order of Gore’s presentation. However, to keep each section of the commentary focused on the same or similar topics, I have—in some instances—grouped together thematically similar but non-consecutive passages
from AIT.

Some readers may wonder why I comment on almost every substantive statement Gore makes rather than just the key points or the dozen or so most egregious distortions. Why cover so many seemingly minor details?

Two considerations impelled me to take a comprehensive approach. First, anything less than a point-by- point examination of AIT is too easy to dismiss as cherry picking. After all, any non-technical treatment of complex scientific and economic issues is bound to be distorting to some degree. Confronted with a list of a dozen errors, or even two dozen, critics could accuse me of quibbling and plausibly claim that Gore’s most important points (whichever ones I did not comment on) were correct.

Second, AIT makes a powerful impression on audiences chiefly by the sheer number of assertions it makes and images it presents. A typical audience reaction is to conclude that if even half of what Gore says is true, then the planet is in serious trouble.

So I decided to take a leaf out of Gore’s playbook. By the sheer number of errors and distortions I have uncovered, I hope to foster a healthy skepticism about global warming alarmism and the energy suppression agenda it allegedly justifies."

Exercise

Well
Shirley headed out to exercise class, but was back quickly
We'd gotten a late winter snow overnight



OK, check the saw, fire it up and get to work.
About 3omin later, had enough cleared for her to get through
Another 15 or so of cut and toss
Got my cardio in for the day.




Cutting fallen always a bit tricker as there is risk of pinching

More Nuke Notes

Patrick Moore, co-founder of Greenpeace supports Nukes
Greenpeace founder supports nuclear energy - Wikinews

As does James Lovelock
James Lovelock - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:

"'I have never regarded nuclear radiation or nuclear power as anything other than a normal and inevitable part of the environment. Our prokaryotic forebears evolved on a planet-sized lump of fallout from a star-sized nuclear explosion, a supernova that synthesised the elements that go to make our planet and ourselves.'"

My opinion is that “old nukes” were managed by “coal plant” style managers, not “nuclear navy” or “Rickenbacker” style managers. In other words sticklers for safety.

How long before Google goes for it's own nukes to power server farms/data centers?

I, Cringely . The Pulpit . When Being a Verb is Not Enough | PBS:

"Google is building a LOT of data centers. The company appears to be as attracted to cheap and reliable electric power as it is to population proximity. In Goose Creek they bought those 520 acres from the local state-owned electric utility, which probably answers the land question posed above. By buying out all the remaining building sites in an industrial park owned by an electric utility, Google guarantees itself a vast and uninterruptible supply of power, much as it has done in Oregon by building a data center next to a hydroelectric dam or back here again in Columbia by building near a nuclear power station."

Bright Idea

Working with Shirley on lighting ideas for her studio.
Timely piece last week in NYTimes:
A U.S. Alliance to Update the Light Bulb

We'll I'd started using compact fluorescents maybe 10 years ago, but have stuck with incandescent bulbs for the most part because of both color and dim-ablity.

Fluorescents are now "dim-able" but I've yet to purchase any, as I have some "inventory" of bulbs.

But I've also been waiting to leap-frog to LED's and started looking.
Among a few sites, found these : LED Light Bulbs

Pricey but that should start to change.
Likely makes sense for commercial use, where you have lights on for a long time, and therefore have shorter payback via energy savings.

Speaking of energy savings, slashed out electric bill downstate by turning off the water heater when I'm gone.

Whether or not C02 and "Global Warming" are a problem, the move to greener products makes sense, just to lower our own costs.

Could be interesting

Haven't dug into this enough yet, but it could be quite interesting.
Unity08: Select & Elect a Unity Ticket in the 2008 Presidential Race |

An attempt to leverage the net for politics, but running to the middle, not the edges.

As a believer in smaller is better when it comes to most government functions, and big skeptic of the power of lobbyists, I will look into this effort.
In general, I dislike national politics, even state level issues as being just a bunch of political BS.

The net may manage to change things, give the public a voice, even a shall we say ... Vote!

And 2008 will be an interesting year.
Democrats may have a hard time coming to a consensus candidate, Barak is too "green" (untested), Hillary a lighting rod and has "Bill Baggage" to contend with.
Al Gore waiting in the wings.

Republicans have no incumbent to run, and I'm not sure if they can come up with a candidate, or if they can hold on to their base in the religous right without driving off moderates.

Maybe "Unitiy '08" can be a home for devote not partisans like me

Nuclear Power Pondering

Conjunction of materials and reading

Last night, we did the "Friday Night Video Rental", tried "Ice Age / The Meltdown" and the irony was that, flipping through the channels before starting the video, I caught part of Al Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" (which I've commented before here.).

Sooo - a character in Ice Age is predicting the end of the world, that all the critters would drown. (Where was Al then?)

Anyway, some reads:
Back in '05 Peter Schwartz (Edge: PETER SCHWARTZ):

Wired 13.02: Nuclear Now!

Digging some more, found this presentation and discussion:
Long Now Discuss > View topic - 02006-01-13 > Peter Schwartz and Ralph Cavanagh

Need to do more reading, but the idea that Nuclear Power is an answer to Global Warming is compelling.

Possible top?

A Titan of Private Equity May Go Public - New York Times

When those who have made their bucks turn around and sell to the street ... maybe a sign of a top in the market.

Note that they are not selling the portfolio, but a piece of the management company.

But, with some signs of tightening in the credit markets (Japan's central bank nudging rates up, China bumps rates, and sub-prime mortgage turmoil) it may be a time for caution

Trash

Buckey Fuller said something to the effect that there is no such thing as pollution, only the mis-allocation of resources.

The end of garbage - March 19, 2007: "The end of garbageCan you imagine a world of zero waste? Cities and towns across the world - and a surprising number of companies - have adopted that goal, says Fortune's Marc Gunther
By Marc Gunther, Fortune senior writerMarch 14 2007: 6:21 AM EDT"

Gonzlaes 8 Reno 93

Politics as usual?

Published: March 24, 1993:
ATTORNEY GENERAL SEEKS RESIGNATIONS FROM PROSECUTORS - New York Times:

"Attorney General Janet Reno today demanded the prompt resignation of all United States Attorneys, leading the Federal prosecutor in the District of Columbia to suggest that the order could be tied to his long-running investigation of Representative Dan Rostenkowski, a crucial ally of President Clinton.

Jay B. Stephens, the United States Attorney for the District of Columbia, who is a Bush Administration holdover, said he had advised the Justice Department that he was within 30 days of making a 'critical decision' in the Rostenkowski case when Ms. Reno directed him and other United States Attorneys to submit their resignations, effective in a matter of days.

While prosecutors are routinely replaced after a change in Administration, Ms. Reno's order accelerated what had been expected to be a leisurely changeover. Says He Won't Resist"

and

"All 93 United States Attorneys knew they would be asked to step down, since all are Republican holdovers, and 16 have resigned so far. But the process generally takes much longer and had usually been carried out without the involvement of the Attorney General."

Conversation

Some give and take with Keith over gasoline prices and the stock market.

I obviously think that this is a much more complex situation with many other factors affecting the markets.

Modeshift : Blog Archive : Climbing Gas Prices, Slipping Dow: A Connection

Whoa ... not so fast... cont.

Looney Dunes: Whoa ... not so fast

Yesterday :
From a Rapt Audience, a Call to Cool the Hype - New York Times

Selective quotes, selective because, in my opinion, Mr. Gore's position has been well publicized.

"But part of his scientific audience is uneasy. In talks, articles and blog entries that have appeared since his film and accompanying book came out last year, these scientists argue that some of Mr. Gore’s central points are exaggerated and erroneous. They are alarmed, some say, at what they call his alarmism."

"Although Mr. Gore is not a scientist, he does rely heavily on the authority of science in “An Inconvenient Truth,” which is why scientists are sensitive to its details and claims.

Criticisms of Mr. Gore have come not only from conservative groups and prominent skeptics of catastrophic warming, but also from rank-and-file scientists like Dr. Easterbook, who told his peers that he had no political ax to grind. A few see natural variation as more central to global warming than heat-trapping gases. Many appear to occupy a middle ground in the climate debate, seeing human activity as a serious threat but challenging what they call the extremism of both skeptics and zealots."


"Some of Mr. Gore’s centrist detractors point to a report last month by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations body that studies global warming. The panel went further than ever before in saying that humans were the main cause of the globe’s warming since 1950, part of Mr. Gore’s message that few scientists dispute. But it also portrayed climate change as a slow-motion process.

It estimated that the world’s seas in this century would rise a maximum of 23 inches — down from earlier estimates. Mr. Gore, citing no particular time frame, envisions rises of up to 20 feet and depicts parts of New York, Florida and other heavily populated areas as sinking beneath the waves, implying, at least visually, that inundation is imminent."

"Geologists have documented age upon age of climate swings, and some charge Mr. Gore with ignoring such rhythms.

“Nowhere does Mr. Gore tell his audience that all of the phenomena that he describes fall within the natural range of environmental change on our planet,” Robert M. Carter, a marine geologist at James Cook University in Australia, said in a September blog. “Nor does he present any evidence that climate during the 20th century departed discernibly from its historical pattern of constant change.”

In October, Dr. Easterbrook made similar points at the geological society meeting in Philadelphia. He hotly disputed Mr. Gore’s claim that “our civilization has never experienced any environmental shift remotely similar to this” threatened change.

Nonsense, Dr. Easterbrook told the crowded session. He flashed a slide that showed temperature trends for the past 15,000 years. It highlighted 10 large swings, including the medieval warm period. These shifts, he said, were up to “20 times greater than the warming in the past century.” "

Finally :

" Biologists, too, have gotten into the act. In January, Paul Reiter, an active skeptic of global warming’s effects and director of the insects and infectious diseases unit of the Pasteur Institute in Paris, faulted Mr. Gore for his portrayal of global warming as spreading malaria.

“For 12 years, my colleagues and I have protested against the unsubstantiated claims,” Dr. Reiter wrote in The International Herald Tribune. “We have done the studies and challenged the alarmists, but they continue to ignore the facts.”"

Local vs Organic

Good piece in Time Magazine.
I rarely read it, but this one caught my eye on the newstand at the grocery (interesting juxtipostion) last week

Cover story:Eating Better Than Organic

Full printout version : Eating Better Than Organic -- Printout -- TIME

Bottom line is that Local may be the "New Organic" - why go organic if you have to ship it 1/2 way around the world, or even cross country.

Ongoing Hybrid bashing ... possible reconsideration

Post from last October (following several prior posts)

Looney Dunes: Ongoing Hybrid bashing

Then, over the weekend, there was this:
A New Battery Takes Off in a Race to Electric Cars - New York Times

A step in the right direction.

Note(s):
1) on all electric :
"To date, all-electric vehicles have failed because their batteries were inadequate. General Motors’ futuristic EV1 car of the late 1990s was doted upon by environmentally conscious drivers who admired its innovative engineering, but because the car used large, primitive nickel metal hydride batteries, its range was limited, its acceleration degraded as the batteries weakened with age, and its two-seat layout was not very comfortable for big, corn-fed North Americans.

“The problem came down to usability,” said Nick Zelenski, G.M.’s chief vehicle engineer. “You had to plan your life around when you were going to charge the EV1.” G.M. built only 1,117 of the experimental cars because it believed that American drivers would not buy such an affront to the national ideal of the open road."

2) current (sorta pun intended) Li-"ion" batteries:
"Rechargeable lithium batteries have been used in laptop computers and mobile phones since the early 1990s. (Their common name, “lithium ion batteries,” is a tautology, since all batteries conduct electric current by allowing the passage of ions between two electrodes.) But despite their lightness, rechargeable lithium batteries — which often use a compound of highly reactive cobalt oxide — have hitherto been thought impractical for transportation because they are insufficiently powerful and might, if pierced, jarred or overheated, explode or burst into flames."

Note in particular the risk parameters of batteries. Fuel burns (cars only explode in Hollywood) releasing the potential energy in a measured manner. Batteries have the potential for rapid release of their potential energy.

3) I will argue that this will reinforce my argument on longevity of hydrocarbon fuels for personal transportation, presented here:
Long Bets [ 257: Hydrocarbon fuels will be the "fuel of choice" for personal transportation for the next 50 years ]

a) greater fuel mileage will extend the resource
b) these vechiles STILL use internal combustion power to suppliment the batteries and therefore I would argue will use hydrocarbon fuels.

When I first proposed the prediction, I was challanged about the issue of hybrids, and my response was and is ... proves my point. More fuel efficent, but still hydrocarbon based fuels.

Review of Chevy "Volt" here:
Power Play - AutoWeek

Thaw

Almost 50 again today
Southerly breeze

Good Harbor Bay


More here

Tech Threads

From David's blog (isen.blog: My opening remarks at F2C: Freedom to Connect) went to Tom Evslin's site (here), interesting piece on Skype - charge telemarketers to talk to me...(here)

Somehow, this reminded me that I hadn't caught up on Cringely who goes into Google's pending takeover of the net.

OK, that reminded me that Google and Apple are getting closer Story Here

"Speaking at a technology conference in San Francisco, Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) CEO Eric Schmidt confirmed that his company is collaborating with Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) on several more projects.

His comments were in response to a question about rumors that the companies are codeveloping a tablet-style computer, according to MarketWatch.

Schmidt neither confirmed or denied that an Apple/Google tablet computer is in the works.

He did, however, state that the two companies are "doing more and more things together. We have similar goals, similar competitors."

Google's search and map functions will be included in Apple's new iPhone -- a combination iPod and smartphone -- that will be released in June.

Neither company has commented on whether or not those functions will work the same as they do on other smartphones, or if there will be additional or enhanced features."

Back to Google, and really to Yahoo ... WSJournal did a piece that AT&T doesn't need Yahoo anymore
Summary:

• The Situation: Changing economics could prompt revisions in pact between AT&T and Yahoo.

• What's at Stake: How revenue from Internet subscriptions and ads are shared.

• What's Next: Yahoo may have to sweeten its deal with AT&T, up for renewal in April 2008.

Cringely : "...Google's dominance of search and advertising is so profound that most competitors -- especially Yahoo -- would probably be better off NOT even attempting to compete and simply let Google handle search and advertising while Yahoo provides content."

Yup

And here's bit about CEO compensation:
WSJournal:

"Terry Semel, the chief executive of Yahoo Inc., got options to purchase $25.7 million of the company's stock in 2006, representing 80% of the maximum he was eligible to receive even as the firm's share price fell by more than a third during the year.


Yahoo struggled in the year as it failed to keep up with rival Google Inc. in the race for advertising dollars and lost its No. 1 ranking as the most popular Internet site to News Corp.'s MySpace. The year culminated in a restructuring that saw the departures of Chief Operating Officer Dan Rosensweig and Lloyd Braun, who headed the media group.

Yahoo's compensation committee awarded Mr. Semel a bonus of 800,000 fully vested options out of a maximum allocation of one million in 2006, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The options had an exercise price of $32.12 a share.

Mr. Semel's basic salary for the year was just $1 under a three-year deal announced in May, mirroring similar executive-pay deals at other technology companies, including Apple Inc. and Google.

The payout, however, was less than half the compensation Mr. Semel received in 2005, when Yahoo shares were trading higher. His 2005 bonus comprised about 1.3 million shares at an exercise price of $40.68, coming to a value of about $52.9 million. That bonus came on top of a basic salary of $600,000."

Damn

Enough to want to re-institute the death penality

Search

Good man murdered
Only thing is, suspect killed himself

Bob Busby, good hearted soul who almost single-handly revived an old neighborhood murdered

Damn

I knew Bob, but only a bit
That said, he was one of the nicest people I'd ever met

Damn

Now THIS could change things

WSJournal

China's finance minister confirmed a government plan to overhaul management of its $1.07 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, in a sign that the world's largest investor is developing the confidence to take greater risks with its money

Maybe why Paulson was in China?

Put pieces of the puzzle together... as this follows the "managed" break in the Shanghai "stock" market.

Note that the Chiese are good students of markets and management techniques.
They only have a few decades left before hitting the demographic wall and need to get as rich as possible as fast as possible.

Framing the issue

An occasional read, spotted this on Rudi

Problems are challenges to Giuliani and he offered some insight into how he analyzes those challenges today.

“You must govern in America now from a sense of perspective,” Giuliani said. “The president of the United States needs a sense of perspective. The perspective you need is that this is a very very strong country. We’re not in terrible, terrible trouble. Gosh, if we’re in terrible trouble the world is gone."

Goes on about how he can communicate, where George W. falls short.

If Rudi can get past the Religous Right, maybe he has a shot.

Piece goes on about how the media should help frame the issue, freedom vs. medievil misogynists and tyrants.

Colonization of England

Interesting piece on genetics of inhabitants of the British Isles
Seems that most can trace genes to a population that predates the Normans, the Anglo-Saxons, even the Celts.

A United Kingdom? Maybe - New York Times

Nurture vs Nature

Further: it would be interesting to track timing of Celts (brought agriculture?) to the Black Sea Flood of about 7,500 BC

To which we can add comments from

A Life In Books: Harold Bloom: Newsweek Periscope - MSNBC.com

"MY FIVE MOST IMPORTANT BOOKS

Shakespeare, the complete works. I won't say he "invented" us, because journalists perpetually misunderstand me on that. I'll put it more simply: he contains us. Our ways of thinking and feeling—about ourselves, those we love, those we hate, those we realize are hopelessly "other" to us—are more shaped by Shakespeare than they are by the experience of our own lives.

"The Canterbury Tales" by Geoffrey Chaucer. He gives us human beings in the round; human beings that are more than simply names upon the page. With almost every contemporary novel, the characters are names upon the page.

No Tsunami

Story on Wave Systems

That Ship Will Come in, Right? - New York Times

Made money on this puppy a couple of times.

First time was meeting Sprague Pater (Peter, Steve's Dad) at PCForum, intrigued with the idea and, since the stock was low priced, just backed up the truck and loaded up.

Did not sell at the top, but made enough that a few years later, had dinner with Peter, and introduced him to Shirley as the one that paid for decades of visits to PCForum (VBG).

Later trache was donated to Leelanau Conservancy to trigger major land aqusition deal.

All in all, a couple of nice "rides"

Ski Break

Couple hours off to get in some X country skiing



Fine except for the arthritis in my foot, every step hurt.
Ah well, nice day, sun and fresh air

More on markets

Forbes thinks Yen Carry will carry on ...

But move week before last likely not the first.

"But despite the sharp movements, analysts said that as long as Japanese rates remain relatively modest, the carry trade is likely to persist for some time, continuing to bolster international stock markets and emerging market currencies as it has over the past few year"

and

"The Chinese government is concerned that investors are not taking into account the risks of equity investments and wants to cool the market off. In America, rates on $600 billion worth of adjustable-rate mortages are due to rise, raising the risk of defaults and delinquencies. And in Japan, with the fiscal year-end of March 31 approaching, companies with operations overseas are repatriating profits, putting upward pressure on the yen"

Note that rising yen also hurts positions with "carry"

Tres Sec Paulson replys to Hillary

From "This Week" with George Stephanopoulos on ABC

Excerpt on Markets/China

STEPHANOPOULOS: One of the other factors that people have cited, in this market blip on Tuesday — Senator Clinton said it was an alarm bell about the amount of foreign debt held by China and other nations.

How big a concern is that to you?

PAULSON: George, I've spent my time looking at global capital markets. I've spent a lot of time, over my career. I think I know something about global bond markets. I've watched government bond market deliver — develop globally. And as I've worked with issuers, I always tell them it's in their best interest to have as much demand as possible; to have it be global demand, a diversity of demand.

And as I look at the demand for U.S. treasuries, I'm very pleased to see demand from all around the world; from governments, from individuals — I see that as a very positive thing.

Now, when we look at, let's take China or Japan. In China, there's a fair amount of holdings of U.S. treasuries by the government and by other individuals.

But all the Chinese holdings are not greater than the amount of Treasuries that trade in a single day in the U.S. That's how much diversity we have in our holdings.

So, to me, the key thing — it's a positive that foreign investors want to own our treasuries. Interest rates are lower, it's helping our economic growth in this country. The key thing is to keep our economy growing, to have it to continue to be the best economy in the world so foreigners will want to invest here.

And I see that as…

STEPHANOPOULOS: But isn't the flip side, though, that they're holding our economic state in their hands?

PAULSON: Well, I tell you, I don't look at it that way. We're holding our economic fate in our own hands. And if we keep this economy competitive and growing, they're going to invest here.

And let me also tell you there's great diversity. When people talk about foreign holdings, as I said, Japan is the largest holder.

If we look at all of the entities, all of the individuals, the government holdings out of Japan — you know, all of those holdings are a little bit more than the treasuries traded in one day in the U.S. A little bit more than one day.

In China, it's lees than one day. We've got great diversity in the holdings of our treasury securities, and we should be very pleased with that.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But doesn't it make it more difficult, because China and Japan together, I think, hold about $1 trillion of our debt. Doesn't it make it more difficult to negotiate with them when they're our banker?

PAULSON: I don't see it that way. The $1 trillion, we trade $500 billion a day in U.S. treasuries. That's two-days' trading in U.S. treasuries. And, and again, that's held by multiple entities in both of those countries. I look at it and say, as long as our economy is growing and we don't have enough savings to support that growth, we can be very pleased that foreign investors want to invest in our economy, have confidence in our economy, and they come to the U.S. to make their investments.

STEPHANOPOULOS: You probably know as much or more about China than any other American. You've been there more than 70 times, you're heading there again this week. How are we supposed to think about China?

Read on here ABC News: Sec. Henry Paulson: The Complete Interview

Clinton Syndrom

Politics and Markets can be a dangerous mix

Hillary sounds off on markets and China

Clip here:
Clinton sounds the China alarm as ’08 issue - Hillary Clinton News - MSNBC.com

Hints of Capital Controls on Thursday ... may have helped spook the markets.

Background
Back in the fall of 1987, the credit markets were getting nervous over James Baker jawboning the Europeans over currencies.

When asked what would happen in the off chance of a "market meltdown, the "wet behind the ears" head of the SEC, David Ruter, suggested that the markets might have to be shut down temporarily.

Well, the best way to describe this is to imagine that you are in line for movie tickets and they announce that "in case of fire, we'll lock the doors"
Time to go to the bar instead.

Now we have Hilllary, front runner for her party for President, suggesting that she could support Capital Controls.

Foreign capital comes to the US Markets because they are the safest, deepest and most liquid in the world. The American economy is strong and there are places to put your capital to work.

If you are a manager in China, where do you want to put your profits for "safe keeping"? France? Uganda? ... China? Esp. if you know that the Chinese financial system is on shaking grounds.

Today in Investor's Business Daily stock analysis and business news :

"But Clinton remains unrepentant. Faced with what she called "a slow erosion of our own economic sovereignty" from U.S. dependence on foreign debt and trade, she would restrict trade and perhaps limit access to currency for trade and investment.

This is almost unbelievable foolishness. Capital controls have been tried before — most recently in Brazil, Russia, Malaysia, Thailand, Chile and Colombia — and almost invariably with tragic economic results.

Clinton misunderstands that what's at stake here is not "debt" per se; it's foreign investment. As the chart shows, foreign, non-government holdings in our economy have soared from roughly $500 billion in 1982 to nearly $12 trillion today. That surge has created literally millions of jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars in incomes and tax revenues.

Over the same period, U.S. household wealth has exploded from $10.6 trillion to $54.1 trillion, and the economy has tripled to $13.2 trillion. This is a remarkable, unparalleled success story.

But if capital and trade controls are imposed, investors will flee, foreign trade will shrink and jobs will be lost. A study by economist Kristin Forbes of MIT found that U.S. multinational companies cut investments in foreign markets 13% to 16% if they suspect capital controls would be used.

Sadly, Clinton's brainchild seems to be the essence of Democratic policy these days — glib, shallow and showing little grasp of even basic economic principles.

As our friends at NRO Online remind us, some in the party — including Sen. Clinton — hold up Sen. Byron Dorgan's proposal to slap restrictions on the economy whenever the trade deficit exceeds 5% of GDP or foreign ownership of U.S. bonds tops 25%.

This is a recipe for stagnation, not growth. It would weaken the dollar, confuse our trading partners, wreak havoc in our markets and reverse 60 years of postwar prosperity. It deserves to be swatted down at once."

When it rains ... it pours

No blogging for a while, not much else other than repairs and backups

Wed night, laptop got dropped (nudged?) to floor - right on the power adapter fitting.
Thurs was researching repairs, starting on backups, but, if I held my toung just right, the power worked, and we were OK.

Then power goes out - OK, that happens, esp with late winter storm.
Divert to setting up generator, making the house "happy" ... but of course no internet connection.

Later in the evening, we get cable back on, and after that, we're back online.
Good

This AM, no power to the battery, scramble for a couple of hours with backups, arrange for HD to be swapped to firewire case, head to town (will in a few min.)

Hopefully we saved enough (lost some spreadsheets on old desktop which shut off instead of taking orders to fall asleep ... my fault for not saving files)

Soooo
We'll throw away most of the rest of today, likely will do work-arounds for the next several.

Good thing there are only about 1/2 dozen projects up in the air.
Better thing that I've been storing files online and working on some projects via online tools (stikipad etc)

Later...

What Day is it?

Nobody thought of this?

Defense Tech: That Deaf, Dumb, and Blind Jet . . .

At $125-135Million apiece, Raptors (F22) gets confused at the International Date Line on first deployment to the "Far East" ... whoops!

Flight has to make it's way back to Hawaii

Location location location

Open your store in a red light district?

Second Life Opens For Business - Technology News by InformationWeek:

"Toyota, Circuit City, Dell, Sears, and Adidas have set up shop in the Second Life virtual world. But their stores are empty. Can businesses find a place with any real-world payback in this fantasyland of overindulgence?"

Good little summary ... Stewart Brand

Was follower of Stewart many many years ago, via Whole Earth Catalog, later, CoEvolution Quarterly
Got to know him via PCForum

Various conversations, and now a sometimes contributor to Long Now Foundation

Good Stuff
Stewart Brand - John Tierney - An Early Environmentalist, Embracing New Heresies - New York Times

Banana Peel

Maybe the Carry Trade???

U.S. Home - WSJ.com:
"The Dow industrials sank 416.02 points, or 3.3%, to 12216.24, their worst one-day decline since Sept. 17, 2001. The sudden retreat, triggered by a wrenching 8.8% selloff in Shanghai overnight, is forcing global investors to reevaluate their insatiable appetite for risky investments. A dramatic 200-point tumble at 3 p.m., the result of a glitch in the mechanism that calculates the average, marked one of the fastest drops in the Dow industrials' history."

Horizon

Moments after 6PM
View across the lake

Plenty of snow on the ice now, at least a foot
May have to pull out the skis after all

Snow Sh_t Sherlock

We got some snow...
Didn't start till about noon Sunday, and wasn't all that bad ...
By 5:30 I'd decided to snow-blow the drive, maybe 6 inches.
Both Shirley and I had things scheduled today.

Got up around 5:30 to check ... yup, more snow.
At least another 6 inches.

Here's a shot down the road, unblown/unplowed.


(all plowed by the time I got home around 5:30 PM

But not bad, temps in 30's snow moved well, not all cold and fluffy

Rather pissy blog

Ran across this while researching info on spelt, hulled wheats and the like for Purity foods

Did lead me to some useful info

North & South (Europe)

Charlemagne | Do as I say or as I do? | Economist.com

And East/West

Russia and America | Not a cold war, but a cold tiff | Economist.com

Speed Limit

Tom Walsh in the "Freep"
"Michigan, in today's time of crisis, has a prime opportunity to fix itself, to move beyond the annual migraine of budget deficit and blame game toward a sane tax structure and a strategy to make the state an economic leader again, instead of the industrial backwater it is fast becoming."

More here:
Michigan's budget crisis means we have to live like we're No. 25:

MEA and Prison Union have to change tune

Stranger in a Strange Land

"First, I spent the requisite time learning to move around and interact. I also wasted a good 15 minutes tweaking my "Boy Next Door" avatar beyond the default 85% gay anime life-study. Most of those minutes went to rectifying a mysterious bald spot that kept appearing whenever I adjusted my hairstyle. At the end of this process, my avatar was less gay, though somehow I felt that I, myself, had become more gay."

Read on:
HYPEWATCH: A tour of Second Life's big empty - Valleywag

Spring's still away's off

Following came in my email today...
Good enough to post.

To which I add Jim Harrison: :

"...and finally, love the detour. Take the longest route between two points, since the journey is the thing, a notion to which, contaminated by the Zen-fascist slogans of advertising (“just do it!”), we all pay lip service but few of us indulge."

---

Four wheels move the body. Two wheels move the soul.

Most motorcycle problems are caused by the nut that connects the handlebars to the saddle.

Life may begin at 30, but it doesn't get real interesting until about 90 mph!

You start the game of life with a full pot o' luck and an empty pot o' experience... The object is

to fill the pot of experience before you empty the pot of luck.

If you wait, all that happens is that you get older.

Midnight bugs taste just as bad as noontime bugs.

Saddlebags can never hold everything you want, but they CAN hold everything you need.

It takes more love to share the saddle than it does to share the bed.

The only good view of a thunderstorm is in your rearview mirror.

Never be afraid to slow down.

Don't ride so late into the night that you sleep through the sunrise.

Sometimes it takes a whole tankful of fuel before you can think straight.

Riding faster than everyone else only guarantees you'll ride alone.

Never hesitate to ride past the last street light at the edge of town.

Never do less than forty miles before breakfast.

If you don't ride in the rain, you don't ride.

A bike on the road is worth two in the shed.

Respect the person who has seen the dark side of motorcycling and lived.

Young riders pick a destination and go... Old riders pick a direction and go.

A good mechanic will let you watch without charging you for it.

Sometimes the fastest way to get there is to stop for the night.

Always back your bike into the curb, and sit where you can see it.

Work to ride & ride to work.

Whatever it is, it's better in the wind.

Two-lane blacktop isn't a highway - it's an attitude.

When you look down the road it seems to never end - but you’d better believe it does!

Winter is Nature's way of telling you to polish.

Keep your bike in good repair: Motorcycle boots are NOT comfortable for walking.

People are like motorcycles: each is customized a bit differently.

Sometimes, the best communication happens when you're on separate bikes.

Good coffee should be indistinguishable from 50-weight motor oil.

The best alarm clock is sunshine on chrome.

The twisties - not the superslabs -separate the riders from the squids.

When you're riding lead, don't spit.

A friend is someone who'll get out of bed at 2:00 am to drive his pickup to the middle of nowhere to

get you when you're broken down.

Catching a yellowjacket in your shirt at 70 mph can double your vocabulary.

If you want to get somewhere before sundown, you can't stop at every tavern.

There's something ugly about a NEW bike on a trailer.

Don't lead the pack if you don't know where you're going.

Practice wrenching on your own bike.

Everyone crashes. Some get back on. Some don't. Some can't.

Don't argue with an 18-wheeler.

Never be ashamed to unlearn an old habit.

A good, long ride can clear your mind, restore your faith, and use up a lot of fuel.

If you can't get it going with bungee cords and electrician's tape, it's serious.

If you ride like there's no tomorrow, there won't be.

Bikes parked out front mean good chicken-fried steak inside.

There are drunk riders. There are old riders. There are NO old, drunk riders.

Thin leather looks good in the bar, but it won't save your butt from road rash if you go down.

The best modifications cannot be seen from the outside.

Always replace the cheapest parts first.

You can forget what you do for a living when your knees are in the breeze.

Patience is the ability to keep your motor idling.

Only a biker knows why a dog sticks his head out of a car window.

There are two types of people in this world, people who ride motorcycles and people who

wish they could ride motorcycles.

Never try to race an old geezer; he may have one more gear than you.

Gray-haired riders don't get that way from pure luck.

Goodbye Free Lunch

BOJ Moves to Raise Rates to 0.5% - WSJ.com:

Beginning of the end of "Carry Trade"

Carry (investment) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:

"The term carry trade without further modification refers to currency carry trade: investors borrow low-yielding currencies and lend high-yielding ones. It tends to correlate with global financial and exchange-rate stability, and retracts in use during global liquidity shortages."

"Specifically, the governor said the BOJ wanted to quench expectations that Japanese rates would stay very low for very long, which might cause them to take "extreme positions." He said the BOJ had in mind, among other aspects of global markets, the so-called "carry trade," where investors borrow money at Japan's low rates and invest it elsewhere where returns are higher. Mr. Fukui said such borrowing could present a risk to the global economy if unwound suddenly."

Aaaannnnnaaa (to be drawn out like Brando in Streetcar ..."Stella")

Brando:
(American Rhetoric: Movie Speech from A Streetcar Named Desire -:

"Kowalski: Hey, Stellllaaaa!!! Hey, Stellaaaa!!")

Following Covers the "news" so much better than I could.
Deus Ex Malcontent: And Now, an Apology in the Form of an Open Letter to America

And funny!

Late Winter

Oink

Sunday, the 18th is Chinese New Year, the Year of the Boar (pig), and looking at the astrological calendar(Chinese Year Chart), I guess it's my year (along with several million others.


I would object to the translation "simple minded" ... preferring something like broad minded or polymath, interested in many things rather than just a few.

Astrology - Chinese Zodiac - Pig:

"People born in the year of the pig are steady and resolute in doing things, and honest and warm-hearted to other people. Competent and persistent as they are, they will spare no efforts in fulfilling any job assigned to them.

Though simple-minded, they always have their own opinions. They hope that everything will be peaceful and everyone happy. They can get along well with others because of their leniency and generosity, and they have patience in perfecting themselves and fulfilling their jobs, which makes them good teachers. However, they will fly into a rage when forced to, but they never harbor a grudge and stab another person in the back.

They are always faithful to friends and set a high value on friendship. They have an interest in giving and participating in parties. Besides, they are good peacemakers in others' eyes because of their honesty and trustworthiness."

Older? ... nah, just better

I'll start off with a message I got from a contact on topic of blogging:

"On another note. I recall that you are retired. I think I have that right? I have an idea working at the Times about writing a piece about retirees who blog. I'm not looking for "Hey, Grandpa or Grandma is blogging. Ain't that cool." I'm looking for examples of retirees who've become serious bloggers as a way to enhance their lives, add their experience and wisdom to their professions, stay current, and stay engaged in a way that was rarely possible previous to the advance of consumer generated content and social media. I wonder if you are an example of this and whether you can help identify other talented, wise, energetic, and serious bloggers who fit the profile?"

(To avoid any confusion, I have not "retired" ... still busy with many endeavors)

Of course, I immediately thought of Doc Searls.
NO Not that he's old, hell, we're only about a month apart, but because he knows so damn many bloggers.

His lead : Ronni Bennett

But this whole topic go me to thinking.
What is retirement, and how does/might it apply to us "Boomers"?

Big 6 Oh coming up for me this year.

Some/many will take the traditional "retirement" path, but :

a) as for myself, I find that I still tend to "think young" ... that may change, maybe as Ronni thinks, it's denial of change, but I'm not so sure.

Some aches and pains which modify my behavior a bit, but not all that much... yet.
Hearing is worse, but I'll accept that.

I use to say I was 50 going on 20, now maybe approaching 60 going on 35 (40?)
Note the ratio - maybe a sign of age.

b) patterning on the American Express ads with Dennis Hopper, this generation has always tried to do things "different"... maybe we'll be taking on "age" with a verve and passion for life and living. Therefore not "retiring"

c) what will be the accepted age of "retirement" as we tend to be healthier? This lends to the whole "Social Security" debate ... what is the right age to consider?
In other words, if one is healthy and productive well into their 60's - 70's and beyond, what is "retirement"?

Better nutrition, exercise, not to mention medical advances are changing the whole dynamic of demographics.

Then, this afternoon, I got back to my WSJournal and spotted a piece on "Aging Brains":The Upside of Aging "New research finds some brain functions actually improve with age. Our reporter on delayed retirement and how to stay sharp."

Excerpts:

"The aging brain is subject to a dreary litany of changes. It shrinks, Swiss cheese-like holes grow, connections between neurons become sparser, blood flow and oxygen supply fall. That leads to trouble with short-term memory and rapidly switching attention, among other problems. And that's in a healthy brain.

But it's not all doom and gloom. An emerging body of research shows that a surprising array of mental functions hold up well into old age, while others actually get better. Vocabulary improves, as do other verbal abilities such as facility with synonyms and antonyms. Older brains are packed with more so-called expert knowledge -- information relevant to your occupation or hobby. (Older bridge enthusiasts have at their mental beck-and-call many more bids and responses.) They also store more "cognitive templates," or mental outlines of generic problems and solutions that can be tapped when confronting new problems."

---

Discoveries of brain functions that hold up, or even improve, through the decades could affect corporate and public policy. As baby boomers age, many are resisting mandatory retirement. In January, a special committee of the New York State Bar Association recommended that law firms abandon the practice. Air-traffic controllers are asking federal agencies to reconsider the requirement that they retire at age 55, and the Federal Aviation Administration in January proposed pushing back the mandatory retirement age for commercial pilots, which is currently 60.

The emerging neuroscience is on their side. One of the most robust cognitive abilities is semantic memory, which is recollection of facts and figures. "Semantic memory is relatively resistant to the effects of aging," says psychology professor Arthur Kramer of the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. Semantic memory includes vocabulary, which increases with age so reliably (at least in people who continue reading) that a younger person should never challenge a sharp 75-year-old to a crossword puzzle.


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The biggest benefit of an older brain is that fewer real-life challenges require deliberate, effortful problem-solving. Where once it took hours of methodical scrutiny to understand a prospectus, for instance, older lawyers and investment bankers can zoom in on crucial sections and fit them into what they already know.

Elkhonon Goldberg, a neuropsychologist who has a private practice and is a professor at New York University School of Medicine, finds that he can also grasp the essence of data presented in scientific papers more readily than he once could, something that more than makes up for losses in other mental realms. "I am not nearly as good at laborious, grinding, focused mental computations," he says, "but then again, I do not experience the need to resort to them nearly as often."

While younger brains solve problems step-by-step, older brains call on cognitive templates, those generic outlines of a problem and a solution that worked before. It's the feeling you get when you see that a new situation or problem belongs to a class of situations or problems you have encountered before, with the result that you don't have to attack them methodically. Yes, older people forget little things, and may have occasional attention lapses, but their cognitive templates are so rich that they more than hold their own. Their brains can keep up even with a diminished supply of blood and oxygen.

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The benefits that come to the mind and brain with age extend beyond thinking. They also include a greater ability to put yourself in another person's mind, empathizing and understanding his thought processes -- emotional wisdom...A 2006 study of 250 people ranging in age from adolescence to their late 70s documented for the first time "positive changes in the emotional brain," according to the Society for Neuroscience, which publishes the Journal of Neuroscience. In the experiment, Leanne Williams of the University of Sydney showed the volunteers pictures of faces expressing emotions. Using fMRI brain imaging, it was found that circuits in "medial prefrontal" areas -- right behind the forehead -- were more active in older people than younger people when processing negative emotional expressions. The greater activity suggests better control of reactions to other people's anger, fear and the like. This greater sensitivity seems to translate into decreasing neuroticism, and greater emotional equanimity.

That doesn't mean older brains flatline when it comes to sensitivity. Instead, they often show a keen emotional intelligence and ability to judge character. Elderly volunteers given a list of behaviors that describe a made-up person ignored irrelevant information (favorite color, place of birth) when asked to judge the person's character and focused on revealing traits better than younger people did, according to research by Thomas Hess, a professor of psychology at North Carolina State University. They were more likely to infer correctly that the person was dishonest, kind or intelligent -- a skill that is arguably more important than the ability to memorize a list of words in a lab experiment.

Wow ... was that timely or what?

So, what lies ahead?

I'm just as curious as I have been for years, maybe a bit more reflective, but also am engaged in plenty of projects. With a broader view, maybe even more than in years past, I'm continuing to look to integrate and cross reference various threads, firms, connections and relationships, to see patterns and seek to enhance and build upon positive connections.

60's

Is this what we get to look forward to as "Children of the 60's" reach their 60's?
ValleyWag :

What are they putting in the water over at Linden Lab?

Philip Rosedale compared Second Life to a drug-induced high, but he's not the first to make that comparison. From Adam Pasick's interview with Linden Lab chairman Mitch Kapor:I do think Second Life can be a mind altering experience -- Second Life, SL, LSD ... maybe not an accident! When you're in Second Life and you're having a mixed reality event

Maybe Mitch just got some bad acid?

Zombie Avatars?

Visions of John Carpenter's "Night of the Living Dead"
or would it be an Avatar Statuary Garden?
OVERCOUNTS: Second Life's absentee population - Valleywag:

"As any illusionist will tell you, the trick is mainly in getting the audience to look at the wrong thing. In Linden's case, they want you to think that cumulative users matters when it doesn't. A new user won't care one whit that, as of last year, 1,422,846 people had tried Second Life. What they want to know is how many of those people will still be around to interact with now?

This is the question the press should be asking -- 'How many of those users from 2006 have logged in recently?' Linden won't answer, of course, but it might be interesting to hear how they square the invisibility of the one population number that actually affects user experience with their stated goal of transparency and openness. "

Starry Starry Morn

With a nod to Joni Mitchel ...

Good morning for hot tub.
High single digits, clear skies, haven't had that for a while. Late moonrise.

Caught a couple satellites, couple meteors, on particularly nice, covering much of the view angle.

Refreshing, now for a bit of coffee

Whoa ... not so fast

To paraphrase Al Gore : "An Inconvenient Report"

IPCC report on Climate - New York Times:

"In his film “An Inconvenient Truth,” Mr. Gore has done a brilliant job of reaching the masses by combining a sober science lecture with a horror movie: gigantic ice sheets quickly melting, seas rapidly swamping vast areas, hurricanes relentlessly battering the coasts, the Gulf Stream stopping and plunging Europe into an ice age.

But there are two problems with this approach. One is that scaring people doesn’t necessarily make their political leaders do anything substantive.

The other problem is that most of the horror-movie scenarios are looking less and less plausible. Climate change will probably occur not with a bang but with a long, slow whimper, as you can see in the new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change."

and about the graphics right out of Hollywood ...

"The report concludes that it’s “very likely” that humans are now the main factor warming the climate. But even as the panel’s scientists are becoming surer of the problem, and warning of grim consequences this century and beyond, they’re eschewing crowd-thrilling catastrophes. Since the last I.P.C.C. report, six years ago, they haven’t raised the estimates of future temperatures and sea levels.

While Mr. Gore’s movie shows coastlines flooded by a 20-foot rise in sea level, the report’s projections for the rise this century range from 7 inches to 23 inches. The panel says Greenland’s ice sheet will shrink and might eventually disappear, but the process could take “millennia.” The Antarctic ice sheet is projected to grow, not shrink, because of increased snowfall.

The scientists acknowledge uncertainties and worrisome new signs, like the sudden acceleration in the flow of Greenland’s glaciers several years ago. But the panel, unlike Mr. Gore, didn’t extrapolate a short-term trend into a disaster, and its caution is vindicated by a report in the current issue of Science that the flow of two of the largest glaciers abruptly decelerated last year to near the old rate."