On Language

Well, I'll have to admit, I've never been strong on language other than English

Seems, in retrospect, that it's been hard to think in another language ...

The rise and rise of English: Top dog | The Economist:

"English is what matters. It has displaced rivals to become the language of diplomacy, of business, of science, of the internet and of world culture. Many more people speak Chinese—but even they, in vast numbers, are trying to learn English. So how did it happen, and why? Robert McCrum’s entertaining book tells the story of the triumph of English—and the way in which the language is now liberated from its original owners."

More reading from the Economist

On rates

Economics focus: Easy-money riders | The Economist:
An early warning about the dangers of keeping interest rates low

Mainly the mis-allocation of resources

And a smack-down on European dreams

Charlemagne: Calling time on progress | The Economist:

"Europeans thought they were progressing towards an ideal civilisation. Now time is up, and it hurts":

To accept that progress is an illusion is only one step. To change behaviour is another. Until now, much of Europe has chosen to put its values before growth. In reality, the 35-hour working week in France was not a mark of progress, but a brake on job creation and a spur to deindustrialisation to lower-cost countries; the French may have more time on their hands, but they have little money to do anything with it. Retirement at 60 in an ageing society is not a sign of civilisation, but a cruel joke played on the next generation. The euro-zone crisis has exposed such hypocrisy. It may still take time before Europeans conclude that they must compromise their ideals in order to secure the growth needed to preserve what they can of their lifestyles. But if they did, that would be real progress.

Housing

Grim Grim Grim

And a government that thinks it can push on this string is just plain wrong.

Housing is just one option, and now we have house ownership, with attendant mortgages holding back work force flexibility ... workers can move to find new jobs.

The Outlook for Housing: The Experts Weigh In - Business - Motley Fool - msnbc.com:

"In shocking contrast, Shiller said it wouldn't surprise him if home prices slowly decline for years: '... This is not what people expect, and it's not what professional forecasters expect, and I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm saying it wouldn't surprise me.'
Shiller bases the possibility on a parallel between what has happened in the U.S. housing market and what happened in Japan. After a sharp increase from the late 1990s through the peak in 2006, home prices in the U.S. have declined for three years until the recent sharp government intervention. In Japan urban land prices (home prices) peaked around 1991, and then fell for 15 consecutive years in major cities of Japan. 'That's the way these markets typically, historically have worked, and it reflects changing public attitude,' said Shiller. 'These are not professional markets that trade on exchanges and turn on a dime. The only reason they turned on a dime this time is because of a massive government intervention.'"

What's wrong with the Economy?

Dealbook Column - Why Wall St. Donors Are Deserting Obama - NYTimes.com

“So long as our leaders tell us that we must trust them to regulate and redistribute our way back to prosperity, we will not break out of this economic quagmire,” Mr. Loeb wrote.

“Perhaps our leaders will awaken to the fact that free market capitalism is the best system to allocate resources and create innovation, growth and jobs,” he continued. “Perhaps too, a cloven-hoofed, bristly haired mammal will become airborne and the rosette-like marking of a certain breed of ferocious feline will become altered. In other words, we are not holding our breath.”

and earlier

American politics and business: Obama v BP | The Economist: "Vladimir Obama"

For several reasons. The vitriol has a xenophobic edge: witness the venomous references to “British Petroleum”, a name BP dropped in 1998 (just as well that it dispensed with the name Anglo-Iranian Oil Company even longer ago). Vilifying BP also gets in the way of identifying other culprits, one of which is the government. BP operates in one of the most regulated industries on earth with some of the most perverse rules, subsidies and incentives. Shoddy oversight clearly contributed to the spill, and an energy policy which reduced the demand for oil would do more to avert future environmental horrors than fierce retribution.

Mr Obama is not the socialist the right claims he is. He went out of his way, meeting BP executives on June 16th, to insist that he has no interest in undermining the company’s financial stability. But his reaction is cementing business leaders’ impression that he is indifferent to their concerns. If he sees any impropriety in politicians ordering executives about, upstaging the courts and threatening confiscation, he has not said so. The collapse in BP’s share price suggests that he has convinced the markets that he is an American version of Vladimir Putin, willing to harry firms into doing his bidding."

Asia and the Indian Ocean

China and India: Contest of the century | The Economist

And Robert Kaplan on the Indian Ocean

Monsoon by Robert D. Kaplan - Hardcover - Random House

With key ideas here : Center Stage for the 21st Century | Foreign Affairs

Related

Q&A With Robert Kaplan on Geopolitics in the Indian Ocean | Foreign Affairs

and smaller piece from Economist (the above pieces lend a bit of perspective)

Strategic jousting between China and America: Testing the waters | The Economist:

"Just now, Chinese diplomats, for all the talk of China’s “peaceful rise”, have weakened their case by upping the ante. In the South China Sea, say Western diplomats, China has in effect declared as its territory not merely the contested Paracel and Spratly Islands and waters close to them, but a vast swathe of ocean stretching deep into South-East Asia. Neighbours wonder whether claims will one day be backed with force. “Does the expression of one’s legitimate concerns count as coercion?”, asked Mr Yang, the foreign minister. When it’s a colossus talking, China’s neighbours might understandably think so."

Smart

Energy Holdings of Billionaires -- Seeking Alpha

24

The world according to “24”: Agent improbable | The Economist:

"A group of terrorists is planning to kill millions of Americans. Only one man can stop them: Jack Bauer. Unfortunately, he has been imprisoned in a secret facility. And tortured. Then decapitated and fed to boars. “Fortunately,” says the president’s chief of staff, “he was trained for exactly that.”"

Economist Links

Series, no particular order, of links from The Economist

On Unions

Schumpeter: In two minds | The Economist

Global economic policy: The deflation dilemma | The Economist:

"Rich countries must act to prevent prices from falling. That will cause problems for emerging economies"

China

The state and the economy: Re-enter the dragon | The Economist:

"Two books ask how far China’s model of “state capitalism” will spread"

The Chinese Communist Party: The permanent party | The Economist:

"An entertaining and insightful portrait of China’s secretive rulers"

China's labour market: The next China | The Economist

Germany/Europe

Charlemagne: Those damned sceptical Germans | The Economist:

"Europe faces a new variant on an old conundrum: a German problem"

failure

Let's restate this: action was mis-guided, support for unions, not a boost for the economy.

Inherited - from both parties - not just the prior administration. Think housing - a bi-partisan fiasco.

Editorial - Waiting for Mr. Obama - NYTimes.com:

"Mr. Obama and his economic team had clearly hoped for an economic rebound in time for the midterm elections. They are not going to get it. The economic damage they inherited was too deep, and the economic stimulus they pushed through Congress, for all of the fight, was too small. Standing back is not doing the country or his party any good. We believe Americans are ready for hard truths and big ideas."

Rationale for pursuing NatGas

We're not running out of oil, or oil prospects, but much is now in the hands of national companies, therefore tough to exploit (discover, drill and deliver).

Oil companies' dash for gas: Vapour trails | The Economist

Part of the Problem

Part of the problem is uncertainty ... does the administration "get it" ?

We Just Don't Understand - WSJ.com:

"The president is overexposed, yet on some level the picture is blurry. He's in your face on TV, but you still don't fully get him. People categorize him in political terms: 'He's a socialist,' 'He's a pragmatic progressive.' But beyond that disagreement, things get murky. When you think about his domestic political decisions, it's hard to tell if he's playing a higher game or a clueless game. Is he playing three-dimensional chess, or is he simply out of his depth?"

The Subprime Mortgage Crisis on Trial - NYTimes.com

Perma-Tan, blue shirt with white collar

Guilty

The Subprime Mortgage Crisis on Trial - NYTimes.com:

The financial crisis has led to only a few civil and criminal cases against executives, and even those focused on peripheral issues: Goldman Sachs’s peddling of a credit derivative obligation and the communications of two former Bear Stearns hedge fund managers.

But the Securities and Exchange Commission’s securities fraud action against Angelo R. Mozilo, former chief executive of Countrywide Financial, promises to feature the aggressive mortgage practices of what was then the nation’s largest mortgage lender."

A Sad Tale

Both parties chase the myth of need for housing subsidies.

Actions taken just continue to distort the market.

The Housing Mirage - WSJ.com

If a housing recovery is finally upon us, it will be no thanks to Washington's serial interventions, nor to the home builders who have cheered so vigorously for them. Together with the Realtors and mortgage bankers, the home builders form a lobbying army of the Potomac. The mission is to secure ever higher federal subsidies for housing. The strategy is to convince politicians of both parties that a robust economic recovery can only occur if residential real estate is booming again. This is false.

Ken on why this election is so important

The american voter has to reject socialism and class warfare

Langone's Bank Building Blocks - CNBC.com

But can the Republicans carry the message?

for the Duh file

Real estate is housing, not investment ...

The last 50 yrs have been an aberration, it's no slam dunk.

This piece doesn't even address carrying costs.

Real Estate’s Gold Rush Seems Gone for Good - NYTimes.com: "Housing will eventually recover from its great swoon. But many real estate experts now believe that home ownership will never again yield rewards like those enjoyed in the second half of the 20th century, when houses not only provided shelter but also a plump nest egg."

Comment on Racing

Racing WAS different then

Like the Burgess Shale, (Cambrian Explosion of forms of life), it was a time of experimentation and development.

Different teams raced DIFFERENT cars, rules were looser.

And I agree with the review about "rag tag operation build with blood, sweat, tears and severe sleep deprivation"

Maybe that's why I liked bike racing so much - it had the same aspects.

And "creative thinking" was rewarded, not punished, rules were the starting point, not the end point.

Amazon.com: Mark Donohue: Technical Excellence at Speed : "So, it's not perfect, but Mark Donohue is a beautiful book that adds substantially to the historical record. Mark raced during a period of great change, due both to technical freedom and the increasing involvement of sponsors and manufactures. If you followed racing during the 60's and 70's, then this book with bring it all back. And if you're younger, it will explain how today's uber-teams evolved from rag tag operations built with blood, sweat, tears, and severe sleep deprivation. 'Mark Donohue' belongs on the bookshelf of every racing fan."

Air Force issues

Using this as a placeholder for some ideas

Top 10 U.S. Air Force TECHNOLOGY HORIZONS

Chief Scientist Werner Dahm says could provide disproportionate advantage for the Air Force

The new U.S. Air Force Technology Horizons study contains a list of 30 “potential capability areas”. The top 10 are:

• Inherently intrusion-resilient cyber-systems.
• Automated cyber-vulnerability assessments.
• Decision-quality prediction of behavior.
• Augmentation of human performance.
• Constructive environments for discovery and training.
• Adaptive, flexibly autonomous systems.
• Frequency-agile spectrum utilization.
• Dominant-spectrum warfare operations.
• Precision navigation/timing in GPS-denied environments.
• Next-generation, high-bandwidth communications.

Dahm also recommends that the Air Force establish four "grand challenges" to focus industry on developing technology that can integrate with legacy systems to achieve these goals: inherently intrusion-resilient cyber-networks; trusted highly autonomous decision-making systems; fractionated, composable, survivable, autonomous systems; and hyper-precision aerial delivery in difficult environments.

• 
  

Aviation Week & Space Technology (July 19, 2010 issue)

Global Warming or bad planning

Much of the disaster in Pakistan can be laid to allowing settlement and development of ...Flood Plains!

Floods in Pakistan — institutional failures – The Express Tribune

Echos of New Orleans?

Build a city below sea level and pray?

Self Congratulations

Leelanau News from Leelanau County piece on our EDC

EDC offers financial help to help local businesses expand

August 15, 2010 - 1:00am

What is the EDC? An unneeded extension of government into the private sector, or an effective tool to stimulate the economy?

While a creature of government, the Leelanau County Economic Development Corporation, more commonly referred to as the EDC, has helped several businesses in Leelanau County gain a foothold in a slippery market and spurred employment through investment.

The 11-member committee which is appointed by the county board is an all-volunteer organization that meets every other month to discuss opportunities for economic development in Leelnau County. “We’re interested in making sure we do the right things up here,” said corporation chairman John “Chip” Hoagland. Hoagland held a similar position when he lived downstate and rose to chairman of the Leelanau group after Todd Stachnik stepped down.

Hoagland is joined by 10 others on the board. They are Stachnik, Joan Kalchik, David Rowe, Marie Porter, Jim Bardenhagen, Jose Barrera, Sally Guzowski, James Reynolds, David Shiflett, and Erik Zehender.

Each member of the group tackles specific areas of development. For instance, cherry farmer Jim Bardenhagen covers agriculture, and newest member Eric Zehender keeps tabs on energy and utilities. “(We’re) developing more of a committee structure to be able to address issues more quickly,” related Hoagland. “We only meet once every two months for 2 or 3 hours, but now the committees can hash out issues before the meeting.”

Committees are headed by an EDC board director but are also comprised of other members of the Leelanau County community. Tim Nelson is in the agriculture division.

Operating on a budget of $16,500 last year, the EDC is looking to increase that number to $27,500 for the upcoming fiscal year. Along with that money the EDC also has access to a revolving loan of $25,000 from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to help kick start local businesses like iOmni, which needed a little extra capital.

“We had an opportunity to grow our business, but we needed more money to execute,” related owner Veronica Moyer. The Greilickville- based iOmni, who received the loan in October 2008, designs custom distribution plans and provides supply chain management services for national accounts. It employs 5 people.

EDC funds were used to purchase a computer server needed to expand capacity. “The Leelanau and Traverse City EDC’s were really great. At the time we needed some help, they were there for us... They also helped orchestrate additional loans and organized our cash flow statements,” she added.

Another business that has benefited from the EDC involvement is clothing manufacturer Baa Baa ZuZu. The company, which is located just off M-22 on Schomberg Road, manufactures women’s apparel and accessories out of 100% recycled wool. Workers were cutting material by hand before the EDC became involved.

“The 2009 loan gave us the ability to automate our cutting as we bought 2 clipper presses with the money,” said owner Kevin Burns.

Kevin and his wife, Sue Burns, started the business 17 years ago, and have spent the majority of time developing brand recognition and establishing markets for products.

“Many people have tried to duplicate us, but we’re the real phony. We’ve almost hit our niche, but there’s still work to be done,” he said.

The Burns’ loan was made available because iOmni paid its loan off early, according to Chairman Hoagland. Burns related that he was also on track to pay his loan down before the allotted time so that the corporation could “help someone else.”

“I approached them (the EDC), after Chauncey (David Shiftlett) alerted me to the loan’s availability. Since the loan our business has been grown by about 30 to 40 percent. We’re fortunate that the recession hasn’t hit us” Kevin Burns related.

“We’re a fourth quarter business, and we process nearly 1,500 pounds of recycled wool every two weeks. We’ll go up to almost 3,000 come fall,” he added.

Employing 19 people in Leelanau County, Baa Baa Zuzu’s products are available in over 1,000 stores nationwide. The company is looking to grow, according to Burns.

“We needed to automate our production for our niche market. We did $1.1 million in sales last year and (are) looking to hit $1.6 this year,” Burns said.

The Leelanau County Economic Development Corporation has other functions, including providing a conduit for state and federal funding for fledgling businesses.

“If a developer comes to me and says, ‘I need $20 million. I can raise $19 million.’ Then I can find $1 million more. We’re involved in what you call gap financing,” said Hoagland.

The EDC also works with the United States Department of Agriculture to funnel funds from its rural development program into Leelanau County.

“My opinion is that many taxpayers have already written checks to Lansing and Washington, some of those funds should come back to our community,” he added. “Our goal is to encourage job creation in the county, and my personal bias is full-time rather than seasonal jobs.”

Recognizing that there is not an interest for heavy manufacturing in the county, Hoagland related in a phone interview that the corporation’s target areas are value-added agriculture and “knowledge” work such as provided by One Up Web. The company, which specializes in search engine optimization, was leaving Leelanau County until the EDC helped provide a building in Greilickville.

Working closely with the Traverse City EDC is another one of the corporation’s goals. “We’re looking at putting in high-speed internet throughout the county. That way people that don’t have to be on site to do their work can move their businesses up here,” said Hoagland.

Among other interests and projects on the Leelanau County EDC radar is the Sugarloaf development, which was recently brought to the forefront through a purchase move by Las Vegas businessman Eneliko “Liko” Smith.

“I personally have been trying to track developments or lack thereof with Sugarloaf. The EDC stands ready, if and when any legitimate proposal or developer comes to us,” Hoagland said.

Relating that other areas of the country invest millions into local EDCs, Hoagland feels that Leelanau’s version is doing great things given its limited resources.

By Jack Bolton
Enterprise Intern

WTF ?

Auto-GCAS technology lives for F-22, F-16 and F-35 - The DEW Line: Auto Ground Collision Avoidance systems.

So ... you fly higher to avoid ground fire, have precision guided weapons to allow lethal kinetic activity (drop bombs) from say 20K feet (4miles up) ... what's it about Ground Collision Avoidance ... except for ... Airshows

Whoops

We're the government, we're here to help you

Administration Foresaw 23,000 Lost Jobs from Drilling Ban - WSJ.com

Unless you are in a targeted industry.

Targeted as in "in the cross-hairs"

Good thinking on this

Ayaan Hirsi Ali: How to Win the Clash of Civilizations - WSJ.com:

"Ms. Ali, a former member of the Dutch parliament, is the author of 'Nomad: From Islam to America—A Personal Journey through the Clash of Civilizations,' which has just been published by Free Press."

Worth Watching

Kyle Bass on debt and secular turning points

Ahead of the Money - CNBC.com

Such as Japan as toast

More on Housing - a long time problem

Edward Pinto: The Future of Housing Finance - WSJ.com:

Mr. Pinto, a consultant to the mortgage finance industry, was executive vice president and chief credit officer at Fannie Mae in the late 1980s.

"A consensus is building around a three-part grand bargain:

• An explicit federal guarantee of a large portion of the mortgage-backed securities created to finance American's home mortgages;

• A tax on these securities to fund low-income housing initiatives; and

• A requirement that issuers of securities meet affordable housing mandates.

This is a dead end for two reasons. First, while supporters of an explicit federal guarantee tell us it will never be called upon, Americans have read this book before and know how it ends.

The second is much less well known but equally deadly: the central role in the recent real estate collapse that was played by the federal affordable housing policy created by Congress and implemented since the 1990s by HUD and banking regulators."

File under ... duh

Anyone who hasn't seen this coming is just blind

Another Threat to Economy: Boomers Cutting Back - WSJ.com:

"America's baby boomers—those born between 1946 and 1964—face a problem that could weigh on the economy for years to come: The longer it takes for the economy to recover, the less money they'll have to spend in retirement.

Policy makers have long worried that Americans aren't saving enough for old age. And lately, current and prospective retirees have been hit on many fronts at once: They have less money, they earn less on what they have, their houses aren't rising in value and the prospect of working longer to make up the shortfall has dimmed significantly in a lousy job market."

Lame Duck already?

Pride in America vs Distain for America ?

Fouad Ajami: The Obsolescence of Barack Obama - WSJ.com

"It was canonical to this administration and its functionaries that they were handed a broken nation, that it was theirs to repair, that it was theirs to tax and reshape to their preferences. Yet there was, in 1980, after another landmark election, a leader who had stepped forth in a time of "malaise" at home and weakness abroad: Ronald Reagan. His program was different from Mr. Obama's. His faith in the country was boundless. What he sought was to restore the nation's faith in itself, in its political and economic vitality.

Big as Reagan's mandate was, in two elections, the man was never bigger than his country. There was never narcissism or a bloated sense of personal destiny in him. He gloried in the country, and drew sustenance from its heroic deeds and its capacity for recovery. No political class rode with him to power anxious to lay its hands on the nation's treasure, eager to supplant the forces of the market with its own economic preferences."

Any hope for housing?

Nope.

Politicians too concerned with elections, not reality.

Fair Game - Freddie, Fannie and the Third Rail of Housing Policy - NYTimes.com:

"The Treasury’s study on Fannie, Freddie and housing finance must be delivered to Congress by the end of January 2011. In a speech last week, Timothy F. Geithner, the Treasury secretary, told a New York audience that resolving the companies isn’t “rocket science.”

But attaining genuine remedies for our housing finance system could actually be harder than rocket science. That’s because it would require an honest dialogue about the role the federal government should play in housing. It also requires a candid conversation about whether promoting homeownership through tax policy and other federal efforts remains a good idea, given the economic disaster we’ve just lived through."

Depression coming?

Economic Pessimists Gain Cachet - NYTimes.com

Capital Ideas

Agreed - lower taxes on capital and free it up for more productive applications

Fairness and the Capital Tax Fetish - WSJ.com

There are at least four channels through which Mr. Bush's tax reform (proposed and passed) raised the long-run productive capacity of the economy—that is, increased the size of the pie. First, since lower taxes mean higher returns to investors, those investors allocate more funds to corporate capital. Corporations can raise capital for investment more cheaply. As a result, the nation's capital stock and output increase.

Second, reducing or eliminating the differential tax treatment between corporate and noncorporate investments means that investment flows are not channeled artificially by tax considerations and the overall productivity of the economy increases.

Third, lowering or eliminating taxes on capital mitigates distortions in our financial structure. Prior to 2003, equity financing was disadvantaged relative to debt financing, with taxes levied twice, at the corporate level and again at the investor level. Because interest payments to debt holders are deductible at the corporate level, debt financing was taxed only once, at the investor level. This system contributed to over-reliance on debt financing. The 2003 tax cuts reduced this bias substantially. Nonfinancial companies went into the recent crisis with lower leverage as a result, a very good thing.

Fourth, low taxes on dividends encourage firms with few growth opportunities to distribute the funds to shareholders. Those shareholders could then reinvest funds in other, more innovative and productive ventures—another very good thing for economic efficiency and growth.

Putting together the effects of greater capital accumulation and improved capital allocation, I estimated at the Council of Economic Advisers that, despite slightly higher interest rates caused by an increase in government debt, the president's 2003 proposal would raise real GDP permanently by about $75 billion annually.

Times change

Once upon a time, I was a fan of "door slammers" but the "sport" got sanitized, and all the cars are identical.

Rules to balance the field have drained interest.

Nascar Tries to Lure Fans Back to Seats - NYTimes.com

Go with stocks

Bill Gross: Bonds Have Seen Their Best Days And Stocks Are The Better Investment:

"Bonds have done well over the last thirty years, and this has earned Pimco a lot of money since many investors now favor bond investments over stocks.

Yet, the next ten years could be much different, and Pimco doesn't want to be stuck in last decade's asset class."

Deflation

First we have the global labor supply (China post cold war), then the de-leveraging post housing bubble ... where's inflation?

Large companies are sitting on cash, small companies can't borrow.

Everybody is cautious due to policies coming out of Washington

Uncertainty Stifles Business Spending and Hiring. - Barrons.com

Conflicting expectations

2 Top Economists Differ Sharply on Deflation - NYTimes.com

and

St. Louis Fed President Warns Against Japan-Style Deflation - Barrons.com

The broader M3, which the Fed no longer publishes but is estimated by Shadow Government Statistics, is shrinking at a stunning 6% annual rate. According to Shadow Stats' chief, John Williams, whenever real (inflation-adjusted) year-on-year M3 turns negative, the economy has always fallen into recession (or if it's already in a slump, the downturn intensifies) six-to-nine months later. Shadow Stats' M3 dropped below the zero line last December, it's not surprising that any number of indicators are faltering, including the ECRI leading indicator.

great shot by daughter

"a summer day at its best" Fine Art Print by NEmens [5698410-1] - RedBubble:

Communication links

Started when I caught part of this back on July 26th

The Future of Cell and Smart Phones | The Diane Rehm Show from WAMU and NPR

what caught my ear was the equivalent of Moore's Law for spectrum :

Spectral efficiency - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Comments from

Martin Cooper (inventor) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

who is involved with ArrayComm -- Improving wireless economics through MAS software

More here

techno: Bandwidth crunch: myth or real threat? 2

And internet growth trends here

Internet Trends

Electric Car Hooey

Internal Combustion Engines Are Still 85% Inefficient : CleanTechnica

So what?

Pretending that EV's are clean are a mistake as are the assumptions about efficiency

My comments (awaiting moderation)

EV only twice as efficient, until you consider generation and transmission losses.

Now let’s consider the rest:
Idling – that can be solved, some by traffic control, some by “instant on” controls.
Also there are variable displacement engines – shut off cylinders when not needed.

Regenerative braking – which I like with Hybrids

Drivetrain – maybe EV can be a bit better, if you place motors in hubs (but then you have nasty suspension issues – unsprung weight is bad)

Rolling resistance – tires – trade off of traction vs rolling resistance, AND proper inflation is major issue – moot

Air resistance applies to all vehicles – moot
Stereo, A/C etc also applies to all – moot

Lets now look at the energy to make the batteries, disposal, carrying excess weight of batteries when partially discharged.

Conclusion – inconclusive

Call it Peak Cheap Ol

Of note : national oil companies spend "earnings" on non-production projects

Takes On Peak Oil, Same Result – Price Spikes Predicted By Matthew Wild

On the New Normal and demographics

PIMCO | Investment Outlook - Privates Eye:

"Far better to create and mimic other government industrial policies aimed at infrastructure, clean energy, more relevant education and less costly healthcare services. Until we do, policymakers will continue to wave their hands in front of the electronic eye – waiting for the flush, waiting for the flush, waiting for the flush, with very little success."

Some interesting video clips - international

Beijing Boom Continues - CNBC.com

and from a couple weeks ago (July 15th)

European Economic Agenda - CNBC.com

China's Business Environment - CNBC.com

Which is best? freight or people

American freight is best, but passenger rail is not

European freight is much worse, but passenger rails is excellent

American railways: High-speed railroading | The Economist

"But the problem with America’s plans for high-speed rail is not their modesty. It is that even this limited ambition risks messing up the successful freight railways. Their owners worry that the plans will demand expensive train-control technology that freight traffic could do without. They fear a reduction in the capacity available to freight. Most of all they fret that the spending of federal money on upgrading their tracks will lead the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), the industry watchdog, to impose tough conditions on them and, in effect, to reintroduce regulation of their operations. Attempts at re-regulation have been made in Congress in recent years, in response to rising freight rates. “The freight railroads feel they are under attack,” says Don Phillips, a rail expert in Virginia."

Sense of purpose

Charlie Rose Talks to the Carlyle Group's David Rubenstein - BusinessWeek:

"What do most people say on their deathbed? They don't say, I wish I'd made more money. What they say is, I wish I'd spent more time with my family and done more for society or my community. So I'm now 60 years old. And I'm doing what I call sprinting to the finish. I'm very concerned that if I slow down and retire, my immune system will relax, and all of a sudden the germs will come in and I'll die at 61. I want to accomplish much more than I did in my previous 60 years because I now have the resources, the access, to do things I couldn't do before. I'm actually more heavily scheduled than I was before, and I love what I'm doing."

Concerns about Washington's drift

Do the Democrats favor big business because it's easier to manage?

Fact And Comment - Forbes.com:

"Under the corporatist state, private companies exist but take their direction from government. Competition is seen as wasteful and destructive and therefore must be 'managed.' There is a basic hostility toward small businesses precisely because there are so many of them, making them harder to regulate and more apt to do things without government permission."

Now, with an apparent limit to government debt, or at least serious concerns about deficits, and with consumers, rightfully, retrenching, we need the business sector to invest.

But with the consumer re-capitalising their balance sheets, and slow or slowing growth abroad, business is cautious.

Layer on uncertainty about taxation and regulatory policy, and business will not invest.

Then we have a recess appointment of new head of Health Care

Obama’s New Health Official Faces Hostility in Senate - NYTimes.com

Why a recess appointment?

Controversy?

Rationing heath care?

A most interesting piece

From debunking genomic fears to potential for hydrocarbon fuels forever ...

SPIEGEL Interview with Craig Venter: 'We Have Learned Nothing from the Genome' - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

And more here Exploring Algae as Fuel - NYTimes.com

Maybe Chomsky got it wrong

Is there a "universal language"?

Maybe not

Does Language Influence Culture? - WSJ.com:

"...new research shows us that the languages we speak not only reflect or express our thoughts, but also shape the very thoughts we wish to express. The structures that exist in our languages profoundly shape how we construct reality, and help make us as smart and sophisticated as we are."

Act Naturally

Buck Owens - Act Naturally

"They're gonna put me in the movies

They're gonna make a big star out of me
We'll make a film about a man that's sad and lonely
And all I have to do is act naturally"

"World Premier" of MLUI - The Movie

Rivet Entertainment - Michigan Land Use Insitute film

Problem and Prospects

Calories are cheap

So we have obesity problems

Calories are cheap, so consumers, if they choose, can pay more per calorie - the core idea behind my food investing

CARPE DIEM: As Share of Income, Americans Have the Cheapest Food in History and Cheapest Food on the Planet

Just say NO

Not for me, but then I don't live in an urban area

Nissan Leaf - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Butt Ugly

100 mile range "depending on how you drive and what accessories you have on"

"zero emission" ... it runs on Electricity = COAL (or nukes, or hydro, or nat gas, unlikely to be solar, wind)

The only way this will sell is "fanatics" and subsities

No real surprise

Wrong headed policies from Washington

From uncertainties arising from health care reform to prospects of tax increases, from spending on make-work projects (census?) to hostility towards business, there is growing malaise in small business.

The march towards a social welfare state is bound to discourage invention and investment.

Layer on the dearth of credit from banks, and we have growing gloom.

Suggestion : bring some positive, predictable policies to the table.

Small-Business Confidence in U.S. Drops to Three-Month Low - BusinessWeek:

"July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. small businesses fell in June to the lowest level in three months as projections for profits, sales and economic conditions weakened, a private survey found.

The National Federation of Independent Business’s optimism index decreased to 89 from May’s 92.2 reading that was the highest since September 2008, the Washington-based group said today. Seven of the index’s 10 components dropped, led by a decline in the economic outlook six months from now."

Oh My My

National Cherry Festival

Fourth of July Weekend

U.S. Navy Blue Angels's Photos - Traverse City, MI

Number 1 and 3 ... over the top

China links

China

Q&A With Robert Kaplan on China | Foreign Affairs

State Capitalism Comes of Age | Foreign Affairs

THE ORIENTAL ECONOMIST REPORT&ALERT

China Economics Blog

Various links

Advisor Perspectives

On interest rates

Inexpensive Protection Against Rising Rates

Likely best for hedging a long bond portfolio, but could be interesting tool against a portfolio of long dividend payers.

A need for rule sets

It’s Complicated - Making Sense of Complexity - NYTimes.com:

"a distinction between the complicated and the complex."

Euro-skepticism

Op-Ed Contributor - The Euro’s Lost Promise - NYTimes.com:

"The dream of monetary union across Europe has turned into a nightmare. Led by France and Germany, European countries have decided to spend colossal sums of taxpayers’ money they cannot afford to heal mounting internal disparities they cannot conceal to shore up an edifice many believe cannot stand."

Doom

Greece—US Faces Same Economic Woes As Greece: Marc Faber - CNBC:

"'Many people haven't woken up to the severity of the US fiscal crisis,' Faber said by phone. 'The only difference for the US from Greece is that it can print more money.'

Faber said that most western countries as well as the US cannot pay for unfunded liabilities and that more sovereign defaults will happen in the future."

and

EU Debt Crisis - Government Expanded 'Like a Cancer': Marc Faber - CNBC:

"Governments have intervened too much in free markets since the crisis started, to the point that they are affecting the health of the world economy, Marc Faber, the author of 'The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report' told CNBC ..."

Similar thoughts here

By Jeff Gundlach "The US will Politely Default on its Debt."

More:

The Keynesian Dead End - WSJ.com:

"For going on three years, the developed world's economic policy has been dominated by the revival of the old idea that vast amounts of public spending could prevent deflation, cure a recession, and ignite a new era of government-led prosperity. It hasn't turned out that way."

Then we have taxes

The Obama Tax Trap - WSJ.com:

"''Next year when I start presenting some very difficult choices to the country, I hope some of these folks who are hollering about deficits step up. Because I'm calling their bluff.'

That was President Barack Obama, the heretofore unknown deficit hawk, all but announcing the other day the tax trap that he's been laying for Republicans. From what we hear about intra-GOP debates, more than a few will be happy to walk right into it."

Perspective

The Browning Newsletter ( on weather and environment ) : July Issue

-On June 3, 1979, Mexico’s Ixtoc 1 oil rig had a blowout and spilled 3.3 million barrels of oil spill into the Gulf. This spill was the second largest in history. Most of the damage was confined to Mexico and Texas. The state of Texas had two months to prepare and did a masterful job of protecting the sensitive bays and lagoons protected by the barrier islands. When the Mexican government saw the slick surround the Rancho Nuevo nesting site for the endangered Kemp Ridley sea turtle, it airlifted thousands of baby sea turtles to a clean portion of the Gulf of Mexico to help save the rare species.

It took 10 months to cap the well and the damage was devastating. In some zones marine life was reduced by 50%; in others, 80%. What sur­vived wasn’t much better off. Scientists surveying fish and shrimp in the Mexican coastal waters near the spill, found them infested with tumors. Over 150 miles (241 km) of Texas beaches were coated with oil, some over a foot (30 cm) thick.

What was amazing, however, was how quickly most of the ecology recovered. Warm water, with turbulent hurricanes and growing bacteria recovers much quicker than the chilly Alaskan waters hit by the Exxon Valdez. In the Gulf, much of the oil evaporated; on beaches, the com­bined forces of pounding waves, ultraviolet light and petroleum-eating microbes broke it down. Most of the fish and beach populations were back to where they were before the spill within two to three years. After 6 years, it was difficult to find any evidence of oil. The worst impact was on sea turtles and some of the slow-breeding mammals – these took up to 2 decades to recover.

It doesn’t help this year’s bottom line, but the power of the Gulf to heal itself is awe-inspiring

Doomsday averted ... for now

Author of Gloom, Boom & Doom Report" is between boom and doom ... I think

EU Debt Crisis - Government Expanded 'Like a Cancer': Marc Faber - CNBC:

"Governments have intervened too much in free markets since the crisis started, to the point that they are affecting the health of the world economy, Marc Faber, the author of 'The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report' told CNBC Thursday."

Swinging too far the other way?

If GW Bush, aka "43" was too much Texan, too much swagger, have we swung too far the other way?

Dorothy Rabinowitz: The Alien in the White House - WSJ.com:

"How then might we be permitted to describe our enemies? One hint comes from another of Mr. Brennan's pronouncements in that speech: That 'violent extremists are victims of political, economic and social forces.'"

Caution

Not only are taxes set to go up on CapGains and Dividends, corporations themselves are at risk

FT.com / Columnists / John Gapper - Oil has become the new tobacco:

"Other companies may look at all this and believe that they and their investors are liability-free because they have not spilled oil in the gulf, sold cigarettes, made cars that do not brake or constructed synthetic collateralised debt obligations.

That would be a mistake. Many of S&P’s dividend aristocrats rely on the goodwill of consumers and politicians to keep accumulating cash for payouts. The mood following the bail-out of Wall Street is now so hostile to corporations, and public budgets so strained, that any slip would make them vulnerable.

Robert Reich, the former US labour secretary who wants the US government to put BP into temporary receivership although many of its investors are UK-based, defines the affair as a “contest between citizenship interests and shareholder interests”."

Ongoing comments on Banking

Better than tying compensation to share performance, tie personal wealth to bank risk profile.

FT.com / Columnists / GillianTett - Ideas on curbing bankers’ appetite for risk:

"America’s vision of capitalism has tended to assume that the best way to run efficient companies is to give top executives incentives to maximise shareholder value, by linking pay to share prices.

But even if that creed works for non-financial companies, there is a basic problem with applying this principle to banks. The average non-financial company is composed of 60 per cent equity and 40 per cent debt. But at banks, leverage has been so high that debt can account for 95 per cent of value, and equity only 5 per cent.

Thus, if bank executives focus only on equity prices – say, by raising profits – but have less incentive to protect the long-term value of debt – most notably by creating a stable business – that creates a mismatch, particularly since bank debt is typically protected by governments. Or as a paper* recently co-authored by Mr Mehran says: “Structuring CEO incentives to maximise shareholder value in a levered form tends to encourage excess risk-taking.” Hence the credit boom."

Now THIS is long term thinking

The Singularity is posited as the point where evolution jumps from carbon based systems to silicon based (computers pass humans).

Derived from this paper : Vernor Vinge on the Singularity (1993)

In the Singularity Movement, Humans Are So Yesterday - NYTimes.com

"...the Singularity — a time, possibly just a couple decades from now, when a superior intelligence will dominate and life will take on an altered form that we can’t predict or comprehend in our current, limited state.

At that point, the Singularity holds, human beings and machines will so effortlessly and elegantly merge that poor health, the ravages of old age and even death itself will all be things of the past."

Banking should be Boring - ongoing

Now THIS would make Banking Boring

Michael Aronstein Calls European Rescue `Deflationary': Video - Bloomberg.com

"Bankers should have skin in the game"

A paean to learning how to learn

A Classical Education: Back to the Future - Opinionator Blog - NYTimes.com:

"“Classical content” identifies just what the subjects to be classically studied are. They are the subjects informed and structured by “the ideas that make us human” — math, science, language, history, economics and literature, each of which, Bortins insists, can be mastered by the rigorous application of the skills of the classical Trivium, grammar, the study of basic forms, logic, the skill of abstracting from particulars and rhetoric, the ability to “speak and write persuasively and eloquently about any topic while integrating allusions and examples from one field of study to explain a point in another.”"

What happens if you disregard traditional Economics?

Sometimes you find sensible answers.

Blog Prophet of Euro Zone Doom - NYTimes.com:

"“Why haven’t these countries converged” with the rest of Europe? he asks. “It’s demographics. As populations age, there are fewer people in their 20s to 40s to buy new houses, so they save more. The younger a country is, the more dependent it is on credit to get growth.”

Germany, where the average age is 45 and rising even as the population is beginning to shrink, is a nation of savers, and public policy has encouraged keeping wages under control and building up export industries.

By contrast, the younger Greeks, Irish and Spaniards went on borrowing binges, driven in particular by rising demands for new homes and consumer goods that, in several cases, turned into housing bubbles before going bust. Wages were pushed up, encouraging spending but soon making it all but impossible for their industries to compete with the thrifty Germans, Dutch and other Northern Europeans.

Most economists, beholden as they are to their “promiscuous but essentially useless” economic models, Mr. Hugh rails, missed what he considers an easily predictable outcome. And that, he adds, “is why we are in such a big mess now.”"

File under WTF?

Prepare to address the broken well, but not really.

We'll suck up all the oil ... whoops, maybe not.

Backlash Mounts on Spill - WSJ.com:

"U.S. officials said Tuesday that BP PLC was collecting so much oil from its broken well a mile under the Gulf of Mexico that it didn't have a big enough boat to hold it—the latest in a series of miscalculations stoking a political backlash against BP and the global oil industry."

I'll drink to that

Growing popularity :

New Whisky Distilleries Rising Up in Scotland - WSJ.com

Taking matters into one's own hands

Got in over your head?

Well, just don't pay.

Want to lend money to these folks?

Nope ...

For Some Homeowners in Foreclosure, a Rent-Free Approach - NYTimes.com:

"A growing number of the people whose homes are in foreclosure are refusing to slink away in shame. They are fashioning a sort of homemade mortgage modification, one that brings their payments all the way down to zero. They use the money they save to get back on their feet or just get by.

This type of modification does not beg for a lender’s permission but is delivered as an ultimatum: Force me out if you can. Any moral qualms are overshadowed by a conviction that the banks created the crisis by snookering homeowners with loans that got them in over their heads."

Might a bigger fish?

Eat BP?

Dealbook Column - Imagining the Worst in BP’s Future - NYTimes.com

"The idea that BP might one day file for bankruptcy, particularly as part of a merger that would enable it to cordon off its liabilities from the spill, is starting to percolate on Wall Street. Bankers and lawyers are already sizing up potential deals (and counting their potential fees).

Given the plunge in BP’s share price — the company has lost more than a third of its value since Deepwater Horizon blew — some bankers and analysts say BP is starting to look like takeover bait. The question is, who would buy BP, given its enormous potential liabilities?

Shell and Exxon Mobil are both said to be licking their chops. And already, flinty legal minds are dreaming up scenarios in which BP would file a prepackaged bankruptcy and separate the costs of the cleanup — and potentially billions of dollars in legal claims — into a separate corporate entity."

Like I'm suprised

Data Used to Justify Health Savings Effort Is Sometimes Shaky - NYTimes.com:

"Even Dartmouth’s claims about which hospitals and regions are cheapest may be suspect. The principal argument behind Dartmouth’s research is that doctors in the Upper Midwest offer consistently better and cheaper care than their counterparts in the South and in big cities, and if Southern and urban doctors would be less greedy and act more like ones in Minnesota, the country would be both healthier and wealthier.

But the real difference in costs between, say, Houston and Bismarck, N.D., may result less from how doctors work than from how patients live. Houstonians may simply be sicker and poorer than their Bismarck counterparts."

This is ... OLD

Compuserve !




note : don't try to contact me, none of the addresses nor numbers are current

More Joy

More on responsibility ... it's not mine, must be someone else's.

"The Union makes us strong"

Review & Outlook: The Union Pension Bailout - WSJ.com:

"Feeling tapped out after stimulus, ObamaCare and everything else? Senator Bob Casey has one more deal for you. If the Pennsylvania Democrat gets his way, U.S. taxpayers will also pick up the astonishing tab for poorly managed union pension plans.

Mr. Casey is gathering support for his curiously named 'Create Jobs and Save Benefits Act,' a bailout for union-run retirement plans. Similar to House legislation from North Dakota Democrat Earl Pomeroy and Ohio Republican Patrick Tiberi, the bill would transfer tens of billions of dollars worth of retiree liabilities to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, i.e., to taxpayers."

Free Lunch

Well, in an entitlement society, we shouldn't be too surprised

For Some Homeowners in Foreclosure, a Rent-Free Approach - NYTimes.com

Really makes one proud to be an American ... not

An impressive double for owner Chip Ganassi

Indy and door slammers in the same day !

Kurt Busch races to Charlotte sweep in Coca-Cola 600 - USATODAY.com:

"Busch, who won the exhibition All-Star Race here last week, pulled away after a restart with 20 laps left and held off Jamie McMurray's final charge for his second points-paying Sprint Cup win of the season. McMurray, who finished second, was bidding to clinch a unique double for team owner Chip Ganassi, who fielded Dario Franchitti's winning entry in the Indianapolis 500 earlier in the day."

Ah ... nice

Supper last night (burgers/brats & beer) old friends and made a new contact

Project manager of the Pontiac Solstice/Saturn Sky

And talk about one of his benchmarks - the Honda S2ooo

Looney Dunes: Vroom

Of he benchmarks:

Nissan Z4 - bit of a pig

Mazda Miata - so so

The S2000 : "during a session on twisty roads in Arizona - I had a religious experience" ... a good one

and ... the gearbox: "Honda had to have sold their soul to the devil for this transmission"

Good clips on good thinking CNBC SquakBox

Mark Fisher

FinReg : banks - if you are a market maker (bookie) OK, if you speculate you are on your own

Figuring Out Financial Reform - CNBC.com

Commodities Oil not Gold (gold is sterile)

Spotlight on Commodities - CNBC.com

and

Mark Fisher Advises Investors To Take Shelter In Oil Instead Of Gold | Benzinga.com

Summary : bet against paper

The Case for the Bears - CNBC.com

Another marker

Maybe not this year, but sooner or later

Demographics at work (or in retirement)

Japan's debt-ridden economy: Crisis in slow motion | The Economist

A different sort of demographics

Topic is unbalances with black men in prison

Makes you wonder about the opposite in China - single child policy and bias towards sons

Early April:

Lexington: Sex and the single black woman | The Economist

IMAGINE that the world consists of 20 men and 20 women, all of them heterosexual and in search of a mate. Since the numbers are even, everyone can find a partner. But what happens if you take away one man? You might not think this would make much difference. You would be wrong, argues Tim Harford, a British economist, in a book called “The Logic of Life”. With 20 women pursuing 19 men, one woman faces the prospect of spinsterhood. So she ups her game. Perhaps she dresses more seductively. Perhaps she makes an extra effort to be obliging. Somehow or other, she “steals” a man from one of her fellow women. That newly single woman then ups her game, too, to steal a man from someone else. A chain reaction ensues. Before long, every woman has to try harder, and every man can relax a little

Problems with State directed jobs programs

I support some programs, but there needs to be some professional analysis and vetting.

Bold experiment produces few jobs | freep.com :

"Four years after Michigan launched the 21st Century Jobs Fund to diversify its economy and create jobs, the first two major initiatives under the 10-year, billion-dollar program have generated mixed results so far."

How prescient is/was Bill Gates

Only so so

From eMail to Privacy

Lesson - don't rely on those with vested interest to always be able to see the forest for the trees

bill-gates-more-profit-than-prophet: the Atlantic:

"It's been 15 years since Bill Gates published The Road Ahead, a book packed with the Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT - News) founder's predictions about the future. How do Gates's prophecies hold up now that the road ahead has arrived?"

Uh Oh

Options

The bluest of blue chips, staple commodities, food.

The Intelligent Investor: You Should Be Worried - WSJ.com:

"Seth Klarman is worth listening to, especially when markets go mad.

Mr. Klarman is president of the Baupost Group, an investment firm in Boston that manages $22 billion. His three private partnerships have returned an annual average of around 19% since inception in 1983—and nearly 17% annually over the past decade, as stocks went nowhere.

To measure Mr. Klarman's importance as an investor, you need only see the value his rivals place upon his words. You could have earned at least a 20% average annual return since 1991—better than twice the performance of the market—merely by buying and holding Mr. Klarman's book, "Margin of Safety": Published that year at a cover price of $25, hard copies now fetch up to $2,400.

t

But the professorial Mr. Klarman speaks in public about as often as the Himalayan yeti. He made an exception last Tuesday, when I interviewed him in front of a standing-room-only crowd of 1,600 financial analysts at the CFA Institute annual meeting in Boston. He then made another exception, speaking with me over the phone later to clarify points that he feared had been misconstrued.

Mr. Klarman specializes in buying securities that nauseate other investors. As the credit crisis exploded, he put more than a third of his assets into high-yield bonds and mortgage-related securities. I asked him what he had meant, in a recent letter to his clients, when he compared the financial markets to a Hostess Twinkie. "There is no nutritional value," he said. "There is nothing natural in the markets. Everything is being manipulated by the government." He added, "I'm skeptical that the European bailout will work."

Some members of the audience gasped audibly when Mr. Klarman said, "The government is now in the business of giving bad advice." Later, he got more specific: "By holding interest rates at zero, the government is basically tricking the population into going long on just about every kind of security except cash, at the price of almost certainly not getting an adequate return for the risks they are running. People can't stand earning 0% on their money, so the government is forcing everyone in the investing public to speculate."

"We didn't get the value out of this crisis that we should have," Mr. Klarman told the audience. "For our parents or grandparents, it was awful to have had a Great Depression. But it was in some ways helpful to carry a Depression mentality throughout their later lives, because it meant they were thrifty with their money and prudent in their investment decisions." He added: "All we got out of this crisis was a Really Bad Couple of Weeks mentality."

You could have heard a pin drop as Mr. Klarman proclaimed, "I am more worried about the world, more broadly, than I ever have been in my career." That's because you can make good investing decisions and still end up with bad results if you reap your profits in currencies that do not hold their purchasing power, he explained.

"Will money be worth anything," asked Mr. Klarman, "if governments keep intervening anytime there's a crisis to prop things up?"

To protect against that "tail risk," said Mr. Klarman, Baupost is buying "way out-of-the-money puts on bonds"—options that have no value unless Treasury bonds plummet. "It's cheap disaster insurance for five years out," he said.

Later, I asked Mr. Klarman what he would suggest for smaller investors who share his worries.

"All the obvious hedges"—commodities and foreign currencies, for example—"are already extremely expensive," he warned.

Especially gold. "Near its all-time high, it's a very hard moment to recommend gold," said Mr. Klarman.

Mr. Klarman pointed out that his own ideas "on bottom-up opportunities in undervalued securities are more likely to be accurate than my top-down views on what's going to happen in the world at large." In other words, while you might want to insure against a disaster scenario, you shouldn't bet the ranch on it.

And, said Mr. Klarman, one of the best ways to protect against a decline in purchasing power is to buy whatever is "out of favor, loathed and despised." So forget about gold or other trendy hedges. Instead, wait patiently for markets—European stocks, perhaps—to get so cheap that they turn most investors' stomachs. Then you can pounce.

As Mr. Klarman put it, "Sometimes, when you can't figure out a good defense, the best thing to do is to go on offense."