Concerns over lack of change on WallSt

The authors wrote back on June 7th about the lack of change in the rules of the game (hint, it's rigged).

My answer to their series of questions is that Wall St. has hijacked both major parties. The Democrats just as much as the Republicans, if not even more.

Serious reform may just be too hard to pull off.


Op-Ed Contributors - The Economy Is Still at the Brink - NYTimes.com:

"The storm is not over, not by a long shot. Huge structural flaws remain in the architecture of our financial system, and many of the fixes that the Obama administration has proposed will do little to address them and may make them worse. At another fund-raising event, for Senator Harry Reid, President Obama said: “We didn’t ask for the challenges that we face. But we are determined to answer the call to meet those challenges, to cast aside the old arguments and overcome the stubborn divisions and move forward as one people and one nation .... It will take time but I promise you, I promise you, I’ll always tell you the truth about the challenges we face.”

Keeping that statement in mind — as well as an abiding faith in the importance of properly functioning capital markets — we have come up with a set of questions meant to challenge a popular president, with vast majorities in Congress, to find the flaws in the system, to figure out what’s being done to fix them and to get to the truth about the difficulties we face as we set out to restore the proper functioning of our markets and our standing in the world."

Editor's Pick: Automated Numerical Search Speeds Design Optimization by Desktop Engineering

Big congrats to the folks at RCT (Red Cedar Tech)
Shameless plug as I own just short of a quarter of this little startup.

Editor's Pick: Automated Numerical Search Speeds Design Optimization by Desktop Engineering:

"I don't believe that I've ever seen 60 Minutes exposing the truth about numerical search algorithms. And I'm certain that when some of you tried to get your CFO to pay heed to them, you got that eyes-glazed over, I'll look into it kiss-off engineers know so well. But engineers in all sorts of manufacturing industries apply numerical search algorithms to linear and nonlinear acoustic, electrical, electromagnetic, fluid, structural, thermal, and multidisciplinary problems every day. And too many are wasting an incredible amount of time and compute resources wrestling with their search algorithms, jacking up costs and squandering time to market. HEEDS Professional from Red Cedar Technology optimizes your design optimization workflow by harnessing numerical search algorithms."

But but but ...

I thought it was case closed, unanimous agreement that mankind is the greatest, nay, the sole cause of climate change...

Strassel: The Climate Change Climate Change - WSJ.com:

"Among the many reasons President Barack Obama and the Democratic majority are so intent on quickly jamming a cap-and-trade system through Congress is because the global warming tide is again shifting. It turns out Al Gore and the United Nations (with an assist from the media), did a little too vociferous a job smearing anyone who disagreed with them as 'deniers.' The backlash has brought the scientific debate roaring back to life in Australia, Europe, Japan and even, if less reported, the U.S."

Shout out for Detroit

Despite Wall St. and Washington bringing Detroit's automakers to their knees, they DO make products that people buy.

We can advance the American dream: AutoWeek Magazine:

"Now, some reading these words might scoff. These are the same people who believe that Detroit failed to build cars America wants--micro-hybrid green cars--even though before the economic implosion, Detroit's market share accounted for nearly half of all vehicles sold. These are also the ones who pooh-pooh the fact that Detroit makes more hybrids than any other automaker. They also refuse to accept that Detroit holds more green patents than all other automakers combined."

Inflation issues

Viewpoint on pending inflation
Alan more concerned about deflation

Economic View - Cross Inflation Off the Long List of Worries - NYTimes.com

Alan S. Blinder is a professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. He has advised many Democratic politicians.

Problem solving

The forward by "King Kenny" does a good job of capturing why I liked racing so much.
Problem solving, and you are never finished

The Grand Prix Motorcycle: The Official Technical History (Hardcover)
Forward
By Kenny Roberts Sr.

I’ve been involved in motorcycle Grand Prix racing for more than half of my life. In racing you live day to day, season to season. You work all the time to solve problems – if you gear for turn three it’s wrong for turn eight. Which one will cost you more time? The bike is pushing or we have chatter. The crew can’t make the carburetion right. Because you can’t fix everything, you go to the starting line with problems, and you work through them in the race.

Afterwards, win or lose, you talk about it with the crew, the tire people, the engineers. Can we fix this before next race? When – and especially where – can we test this new front tire? Racing isn’t a fairytale with a happy ending – it’s a stream of problems, half answers, and coping with the rest. The team and rider that copes best has some chance of winning. It’s all about confidence – if your front tire starts to push, that stops you psychologically. You have to fix it.
After I’d been 500 champion a couple of times someone asked me if racing had become just a job for me. I said no. No one pays you enough money to do this if you’re miserable. We were based in Amsterdam then, where the North Sea makes the weather dark and rainy. I wanted to go testing even if it was raining and cold. I wanted to race.

Since then I’ve a team owner and then a “constructor” – we built our own three-cylinder 500 and then a four-stroke 990cc V5. Doing that gave me new perspectives on racing – and a lot more problems. Riders have personalities. When are those castings coming? Why does it have to be the welder who’s sick? They’re doing what to the rules?

This book is a history of the top-class Grand Prix motorcycle, 1949 to now. It shows that riders, crew, and the engineers have struggled with the same basic familiar problems (and each other) for 60 years – making tires grip and last, making bikes that do what the riders wants them to, making reliable power that the rider can use. Methods and materials change and computers get a lot of press now, but riders of the 1950’s would recognize the some old problems in their new clothing. The result of all those years of work on those problems is today’s much more capable race bikes and production bikes.

Sows ears to silk purses

Brilliant summary

Public debt: The biggest bill in history | The Economist

Careful on fiscal tightening to avoid inflation or hyper-inflation, but make long term, serious changes.

Changes to reflect the reality of an aging population.

Simple : raise retirement ages, workers work longer, pay more taxes (over time), and draw less in pensions.
Retirement/Pensions have not kept up with increased life expectancy.

Also : in the US... healthcare reform.
Focus on health and healthy lifestyles, not cures after the fact.

Whoo Hoo

One of my all time favorite investments

Neogen Named to Fortune's List of 40 Stocks 'To Retire On' :

"In making its selection, Fortune said: 'Newcomers include biotech Neogen (NEOG), which sells an array of products focused on food safety from farm to factory, including test kits that help foodmakers detect allergens, toxins, and bacteria like E. coli. This business should benefit from increased regulation and growing consumer concern about the food supply. The company, which boasts zero debt, posted its 64th consecutive profitable quarter in March.'"

file under WTF ?

So, during a taping of an interview for NBC News, the President swatted a pesky fly.
Tape was broadcast last night ... and ...

The PETA Files: Obama and the Fly:

"In a nutshell, our position is this: He isn't the Buddha, he's a human being, and human beings have a long way to go before they think before they act."

It's mornings like this

That make winter's worth it ... long days upon us now



6AM

Reflections

6AM
A bit late this AM when I came down to make coffee
Grabbed camera first
Nice start to the day

Flight 1549

Talk about "cool" ...

Hero Pilot 'Sully' Stars at Safety Hearing - WSJ.com:

"After spotting a flock of birds that 'were very large and filled the entire windscreen' of the jet, Capt Sullenberger noticed a dramatic drop in thrust. Investigators later determined at least three birds were sucked into the engines. Disregarding air-traffic controller suggestions to return to LaGuardia or try to swoop into another nearby airport, Capt. Sullenberger set his sights on the surface of the Hudson.

With the plane's flaps out, speed dwindling fast and splashdown barely seconds away, Capt. Sullenberger asked his first officer: 'Got any ideas?' Co-pilot Jeff Skiles instantly replied: 'Actually not.'

Once the plane settled in the water and the crew realized the fuselage remained intact, Capt. Sullenberger told the safety board, he turned toward his first officer and both instinctively blurted out at the same instant: 'That wasn't as bad as I thought.'"

Buy vs Rent

Some things change quickly, some don't
The hangover will be long and slow.

When nobody wants to be a broker, it may be time for a turn.

Economic View - Why Home Prices May Keep Falling - NYTimes.com:

"Several factors can explain the snail-like behavior of the real estate market. An important one is that sales of existing homes are mainly by people who are planning to buy other homes. So even if sellers think that home prices are in decline, most have no reason to hurry because they are not really leaving the market.

Furthermore, few homeowners consider exiting the housing market for purely speculative reasons. First, many owners don’t have a speculator’s sense of urgency. And they don’t like shifting from being owners to renters, a process entailing lifestyle changes that can take years to effect."

Prius ?

Not everybody loves it

New Car Reviews, Ratings & Pricing, Auto News for New Models – TTAC:

"If Ralph Nader had been an engineer, this is the car he would have designed, a vehicle for people who loathe automobiles."

Powerful thiking on organization

How organized do you need to be, can you afford to be?

Clay Shirky on institutions vs. collaboration | Video on TED.com

about 20 min clip

Tribal Thinking

Worthwhile talk (about 17 min) by Seth on the post-industrial, post mass media world and changes in the world

Seth Godin on the tribes we lead | Video on TED.com

Nobody wants your stuff until they are inspired to ...
Don't sell to those who don't care, connect with those who do caree

What sort of business to be in

Read it:

Seth's Blog: Harvesting

Good business rules
Big one is moat
Warren Buffett seems to have missed this one with newspapers
Moat dried up - internet

Ten years ago

It was just 10 years ago that Doc and friends threw down some dam good ideas

Doc Searls Weblog ...Cluetrain @10

Some business's got it, many didn't

Markets are conversations

Irony - as I post this, Grosse Pointe Blank is on and a character (Jeremy Piven) is at the wheel of the car screaming "Ten Years .... TEN YEARS AGO"

(John Cusack as hit man returning to High School Reunion)

Genius ... pure genius

Well, maybe not when it comes to business and public policy
Great at getting PR, and selling movies but not sure of some of his "industrial policy"

MichaelMoore.com : Goodbye, GM ...by Michael Moore

I will grant that GM made some massive mistakes, but to be a cheerleader for the fall, that strikes me as a bit too far.

Washington has it's share of blame too.
How about higher gas taxes to encourage changes in behavior, how about shifting costs to the union earlier, how about the fact that, until the recession, the auto industry has been strong (foreign plants in the southern states churning out product).

Mass transit - yup, where you have mass populations, but not in rural areas.
Miss the bus, and you ... miss the bus.

Back to movies Mike

Gold Bugged

I've never been "long" gold (held a position in the metal anticipating a rise in price)

I HAVE taken short positions, and have made some good money.
The point, as is pointed out below, gold has little intrinsic value, it costs money to own, and does not generate income.


ROI: Is Gold Headed For a Bubble? - WSJ.com:

"Ordinary U.S. investors, on average, aren't timing this market too well. Money flows into, and out of, exchange-traded bullions funds like GLD, and are tracked monthly by Financial Research Corp., an analytics company. Comparing them to gold prices over the past year is disheartening.

Gold spiked well above $900 an ounce in July 2008 and again this February and March. Those, of course, were the months when bullion funds reported by far their biggest net inflows. Yet when gold slumped, as it did last October and November and again in April, so did fund sales.

Rarely does anyone discuss the biggest problem with gold -- no one actually knows what this metal is really worth. After all, it generates no income. All the gains come from capital appreciation. And that, of course, is a gamble."

File under Duh

Pigeons come home to roost

S.E.C. Accuses Countrywide’s Ex-Chief of Fraud - NYTimes.com:

"Citing e-mail messages in which Mr. Mozilo referred to Countrywide loan products as “toxic” and “poison,” S.E.C. officials said that he had misled investors about growing risks in the company’s lending practices from 2005 through 2007. During this time he also generated $140 million in profits by selling stock in the company, the S.E.C. said.

“This is the tale of two companies,” said Robert Khuzami, enforcement director at the S.E.C. “Countrywide portrayed itself as underwriting mainly prime-quality mortgages, using high underwriting standards. But concealed from shareholders was the true Countrywide, an increasingly reckless lender assuming greater and greater risk.”"

Good insight from Doc on TV

TV is dying

Doc Searls Weblog : Journalism and Net Nativity

My comments :
Good to see a “think piece” from you again.

Quick replies
I rather like the new Newsweek, waited until the weekend, read most of it, and on reflection, it’s a bit like my Sunday routine of : CBS Sunday Morning while cooking and/or eating breakfast.
Other Sunday (non shouting) shows like Face the Nation, Stephanopolus(sp?) and now GPS (Zakaria) … all DVR’d for interruption (commercails) zapping.

Noting that, in general, the ads are well downmarket, Billy Mayes type stuff.

The rest of network TV is back to the wasteland.
Sports will still be compelling to those who follow them, as they are (somewhat) unpredictable.

CNBC works with the DVR well, as well as the mute function.
Slashes reading of WSJournal, even when that is online.
NYTimes is still my go to paper (filters on) as the Economist for weekly.

So many sources are online, from Nouriel Roubini to Kudlow

I’m sure you’ve seen Clay’s Gin, Television, and Social Surplus
http://www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/looking-for-the-mouse.html

Olde TV is dead, the devices may yet be useful, even if the “networks” aren’t

Followed by longer, thoughtful piece from Doc, much from late 90's
Good forethought

Doc Searls Weblog : We’re gonna need a bigger boat

Read it

The New Normal - not the Old Normal

Bottom line - I think he nails it.
From far to free wheeling finance to pending far to political economic decision making.

Less growth, higher unemployment, more government decision making.

Mohamed A. El-Erian

Life After the Financial Crisis - BusinessWeek:

"Get used to it. The legacy of the financial crisis will be overregulation and slow growth"

More reading

Caught an interview with Bob last Saturday while doing some roadwork (tree clearing, pothole filling)
Left the radio on, doors to Jeep open
Interlochen Public Radio, "Michigan Writers"

Bob Butz - Writing The Wild

Guess I have to make some space on the bookshelves for a book or two
Bob certainly sounds like the gets the "up north" life and lifestyle, attitude etc.

Turns out he lives just a few miles south
Transplant from further east, understands the civility and neighborliness that I treasure up here.

Odd Behaviors ... explained ?

Why do some folks splurge on "image" products

Findings - Message in What We Buy, but Nobody’s Listening - NYTimes.com:

"“Evolution is good at getting us to avoid death, desperation and celibacy, but it’s not that good at getting us to feel happy,” he says, calling our desire to impress strangers a quirky evolutionary byproduct of a smaller social world.

“We evolved as social primates who hardly ever encountered strangers in prehistory,” Dr. Miller says. “So we instinctively treat all strangers as if they’re potential mates or friends or enemies. But your happiness and survival today don’t depend on your relationships with strangers. It doesn’t matter whether you get a nanosecond of deference from a shopkeeper or a stranger in an airport.”"

New actors, same old script

White House Memo - Some Obama Enemies Are Made Totally of Straw - NYTimes.com:

"There was much outrage in 2006, for example, when Mr. Bush said that when it came to battling terrorists, “I need members of Congress who understand that you can’t negotiate with these folks,” implying that Democrats backed talks with Al Qaeda. That assertion was promptly, and angrily, disputed by Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts.

Now that there is a new team at the White House, guess who is knocking down straw men left and right? To listen to President Obama, a veritable army of naysayers has invaded Washington, urging him to sit on his hands at the White House and do nothing to address any of the economic or national security problems facing the country."

Series of Links relating to "Detroit"

Here are several links from the previous week as now GM heads towards bankruptcy.

Not that I support the management decisions of the "Big Three" but are politicians more competent to decide what we will drive?
I would much prefer changes in taxes (gas tax) and let consumers decide.
Small, "green" cars are fine for urban areas, those that may have insufficient public transit, but up here I see most folks in trucks or SUV's.
In part it's called winter, in part it's distance.

One size does not fit all.
Note that I have also blogged about hybrid trucks and SUV's making more sense than small cars, they just don't have the same image.

Why Government Can't Run a Business - WSJ.com

"Capitalism isn't perfect. Indeed, to paraphrase Winston Churchill's famous description of democracy, it's the worst economic system except for all the others. But the inescapable fact is that only the profit motive and competition keep enterprises lean, efficient, innovative and customer-oriented."

Mr. Gordon is the author of "An Empire of Wealth: The Epic History of American Economic Power" (HarperCollins, 2004).

Car Crazy - WSJ.com:

Bankrupt companies making 39 mpg autos. Are we nuts?

"We wish these folks luck 'working together' with the Obama auto-design team. One thing seems certain by 2016: Taxpayers will be paying Detroit to make the cars Americans don't want, and then they will pay again either through (trust us) a gas tax or with a purchase subsidy. Even the French must think we're nuts."

Obama at the Auto Buffet - WSJ.com:

"With his latest installment of ever-higher fuel mileage requirements for the auto industry, Barack Obama embraces a momentary, crisis-spawned expansion of the art of the possible, unleavened by any art of the rationally desirable."


In U.S., Steps Toward Industrial Policy in Autos - NYTimes.com:

"“By any coherent definition, this is industrial policy,” said Marcus Noland, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Industrial policy refers to government programs tailored for a specific industry instead of actions whose effects are felt across an economy, like monetary policy or tax rates."

“Whaddya Give”

Last night : another excellent "play" from Anne Marie
I think it may be her first "musical"

IPR News: Writer Dramatizes History of Empire, MI | Interlochen Public Radio

I had attended the auction about the time we bought what became "home" on the lake.
My memory is that the auction went for two days with 3 simultaneous auctioneers and they indeed had a lot of "stuff"

The performance build wonderfully, with the tension between "need" for things and for relationships

The brothers died bachelors

"...loosely based on the Roen brother’s story. In 1985, two of the five sons of the founding father of the Village of Empire, Andrew Roen, were found dead in their home of natural causes. The home was also stuffed with antiques, cash and unsigned wills. A three-day auction followed netting more than $200,000.

Oomen created her main character by combining the mayor and the auctioneer into one person. As he drives the sales, the objects he sells trigger memories. And the stories portray the brothers at various stages of their lives."

More from Leelanau Enterprise

Straw Man

Nouriel Roubini does a straw man argument
The sky is falling the sky is falling, the dollar is doomed

My question is why China puts their funds in the US Treasury market ... security, transparency, liquidity?

Op-Ed Contributor - The Almighty Renminbi? - NYTimes.com:

"But what could replace it? The British pound, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc remain minor reserve currencies, as those countries are not major powers. Gold is still a barbaric relic whose value rises only when inflation is high. The euro is hobbled by concerns about the long-term viability of the European Monetary Union. That leaves the renminbi."

But then he goes on to say ...

"At the moment, though, the renminbi is far from ready to achieve reserve currency status. China would first have to ease restrictions on money entering and leaving the country, make its currency fully convertible for such transactions, continue its domestic financial reforms and make its bond markets more liquid. It would take a long time for the renminbi to become a reserve currency, but it could happen."

Campaings vs Governing

News Analysis - Obama After Bush - Leading by Second Thought - NYTimes.com:

"But the bottom line is that Mr. Obama’s course corrections have real-life consequences. Mr. Bush kept saying that he wanted to close Guantanamo Bay but could not find an effective replacement for it. So he never acted. Mr. Obama began with that action, and now discovers it is more difficult to accomplish than it seemed a few months ago.

“These issues are always more difficult in practice than they are in the environment of a campaign,” Samuel R. Berger, who served as President Bill Clinton’s national security adviser, said Friday. “In the end, what you have to remember is that President Obama is going to close Guantanamo and he is going to end torture. But I think everyone admits that doing so has proven to be more difficult than anyone anticipated.”"

Demographics

I don't totally agree
Good choice of equities can counter performance issues.

My option would be to buy stocks of companies that raise their dividends regularly, over time this can greatly enhance returns.

FT.com / Markets / The long view - Long View: Why baby boomers will put their faith in bonds:

"Confidence in stocks is likely to have been shaken, as the realisation takes hold that bonds have beaten stocks over four decades.

Add to this the weight of demographics. Those who started saving in 1969 were in the early years of the baby boom generation. They have only a few years left to retirement, and suddenly have far less wealth set aside for it than they had thought. That will mean saving more, and it is likely that a big chunk of that money will go to bonds rather than stocks."

FT.com / US / Economy & Fed - What a feeling: how emotions may yet save the economy

Happy Talk

First, talk the economy down, then get the bailout/legislation you want, then talk the economy up.

FT.com / US / Economy & Fed - What a feeling: how emotions may yet save the economy:

"...“we will never really understand important economic events unless we confront the fact that their causes are largely mental in nature”. Our “ideas and feelings” about the economy are not purely a rational reaction to data and experience; they themselves are an important driver of economic growth – and decline."

Free Speach?

Post an Opinion, Go To Jail : Watts Up With That?

"...proposed a bill that would make it a federal felony to use blogs, text messages, and Internet messaging (”electronic means”) to harass someone and cause them “emotional distress.”

What about the Congressional Record?

Which

High taxes, which would piss off voters, but give them a choice in what to buy, or tell the manufacturers what to build, limiting choice.

I'd vote for the taxes ... and side benefit would be funds for road repairs

How Will Obama and Detroit Get Americans to Buy Hybrid Vehicles? - WSJ.com:

"U.S. car makers have lobbied for higher gas taxes as the simplest way to push consumers into high-mileage cars. The Obama administration is betting on a different approach: Leave gas taxes alone, and instead invest government money in advanced battery development, offer tax breaks of up to $7,500 on hybrids and mandate tougher mileage standards to force car makers to use new fuel-saving technology. Washington now has a big financial stake in getting this right, or billions in public money plowed into Chrysler and GM could be vulnerable to energy markets."

Healthy ?

What's Really in Many 'Healthy' Foods - WSJ.com

How misleading labeling may help sell ordinary products as "healthy"

Such as "wheat bread" ... like, most bread (other than spelt) is made of wheat.

Whole Wheat would be much much better as it should contain the bran and germ.

never heard of photoshop

Aide Quits Over New York Flyover - WSJ.com: "WASHINGTON -- The White House official responsible for the Air Force One flight over New York City that caused panic around the site of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks resigned Friday, as an internal review identified numerous miscues surrounding the incident.

In a resignation letter submitted to President Barack Obama on Friday, White House Military Office Director Louis Caldera said the controversy over the April 27 photo-op has made it impossible for him to lead effectively and 'has become a distraction to the important work you are doing as president.'"

Tax "Havens"

There seems to be a need for deeper thinking
Corporations are non-national or global.

I dislike the wiff of protectionism

Ross: Obama's Tax Changes Are a 'Huge Mistake' - General * Asia * News * Story - CNBC.com:

"'The part that's more complicated is about the corporations. And it almost sounded as though he was intending to be punitive on corporations that had extensive overseas operations. To the degree that that's true I think it would be a huge mistake, because one of the reasons that many of the U.S. corporations are prospering is in fact their participation in the more rapidly growing markets overseas. And I think that's a very dangerous slope,' Ross said."

Beg to differ cont ...

Late last year, Toyota halts work for new 1.3 Billion Prius Plant for Mississippi

Prius or Pickups? | Car News Blog at Motor Trend:

"The Prius problem highlights the major challenge facing any bailout of the Detroit Three. If Toyota allegedly the smartest guys in the room when it comes to the auto biz can t figure out what American consumers want one month to the next as of a few months back the Tupelo plant was actually slated to build Highlander SUVs how on earth is Capitol Hill or any so-called 'car czar' for that matter going to be able to figure out which direction Detroit s salvation lies Building Prius clones Or pickups Which will give us the best chance of getting our loan money paid back"

Beg to differ

True statement " I'm not an auto engineer" ... and it shows

Obama 100 Days Press Conference: FULL TRANSCRIPT:

"OBAMA: I don't think that we should micromanage, but I think that, like any investor, the American taxpayer has the right to scrutinize what's being proposed and make sure that their money is not just being thrown down the drain.

And so, you know, we've got to strike a balance. I don't want to be -- I'm not an auto engineer. I don't know how to create an affordable, well-designed plug-in hybrid. But I know that, if the Japanese can design an affordable, well-designed hybrid, then, doggone it, the American people should be able to do the same.

So my job is to ask the auto industry: Why is it you guys can't do this? And, in some cases, they're starting to do it, but they've got these legacy costs. You know, there are some terrific U.S. cars being made, both by Chrysler and G.M.

The question is, you know, give me a plan so that you're building off your strengths and you're projecting out to where that market is going to be. I actually think, if you look at the trends, that those auto companies that emerge from this crisis, when you start seeing the pent-up demand for autos coming back, they're going to be in a position to really do well, globally, not just here in the United States."

I'm assuming that the President is referring to the Prius, a questionable data point.
Word is that Toyota looses money on the Prius, while it makes money on ... Pick Up Trucks.
I've posted this before:

18 Is Enough — Sightline Daily - Northwest News that Matters:

How SUVs Can Save the Climate — Sightline Daily - Northwest News that Matters

"You save more fuel switching from a 15 to 18 mpg car than switching from a 50 to 100 mpg car."

So skip any focus on "small cars"
Sure, they make a visual statement, but the numbers are not important with them.

Best would be to look at hybrid technology applied to larger platforms, matter of fact to platforms that Americans buy ... SUV's and the like.

Matter of fact, Detroit is addressing this market:
Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid Named 2008 Green Car of the Year | GreenCar.com

More :
GM | Hybrid Cars, SUVs & Trucks - Hybrid Technology

But maybe this is all more about style than substance

Spring Breakfast

Post over on my "cookin" blog

Earthy Delights: Rampin up

Good to have an "outside day"

Tromped the woods a bit
Hauled out the saws, felled a few dead pines
Ongoing process of thinning the stand of "standing dead" ... any without living tops. Often the skinniest in the stand.

First, the beetles that likely killed them don't like them on the ground, second, return their nutrients to the soil.

Later, gathered up some wild leeks for Sunday breakfast.
They seem to still be on the small side.

BS Rules (or sells papers)

Only a few days ago, there were calls to close the border, Biden "stuck his foot through the back of his head" in telling the Today Show, that he advises his family to stay off planes because of the risk ...

Now

Outbreak in Mexico May Be Smaller Than Feared - NYTimes.com:

"The World Health Organization announced on Saturday an increase in the number of confirmed cases of swine flu, although tests now indicate that the outbreak in Mexico may turn out to be far smaller than originally feared."

Times picks up on it too ...
Blaming ‘Media Hype’ for Swine Flu Fears - The Lede Blog - NYTimes.com

Done

Cherry Blossoms

The Official Site of 1,000 Places To See Before You Die

Note that we get a few in Leelanau too

Quote of the month

So so true ... although I attribute my dysfunction to being a quasi-polymath.

Doc Searls Weblog : New Innerface:

"I’m also more distractable than a kitten. That’s good for blogging and tweeting, bad for book-writing."

UAW vs Teachers Union?

Part of the problem

Lenders Fault Treasury in Chrysler Bankruptcy - DealBook Blog - NYTimes.com: 

"NEW YORK - (Business Wire) As of last night’s deadline, we were part of a group of approximately 20 relatively small organizations; we represent many of the country’s teachers unions, major pension and retirement plans and school endowments who have invested through us in senior secured loans to Chrysler. Combined, these loans total about $1 billion. None of us have taken a dime in TARP money."

Likely a good read

If I have time ...

Coloring the thinking leading into WWII and management of the world afterwords.

Britain between the wars | A sense of dread | The Economist: "The period between the two world wars was a time of anxiety and foreboding. Much like our own age—only more so"

"During this period something strange happened. After the horrors of the first world war, many people were convinced that another global conflict would unleash forces of barbarism that decaying liberalism would be powerless to resist and that the inevitable result would be the dawning of a new dark age.

But as the prospect of war drew closer, pessimism and defeatism were replaced with a grim determination to confront the manifest evil of Nazism. In the three years between the crises in Spain and central Europe, Mr Overy writes, “the balance between saving civilisation through peace and saving civilisation by war swung decisively in favour of the latter.” When war eventually came, it was for many people almost a relief—a climax in the patient’s condition after which would come either death or recovery.

“The Morbid Age” is history at its best. It tells us not just what people did, but what were the social and intellectual influences that caused them to do what they did. With elegance and erudition, Mr Overy opens a window into the mind of a generation—a generation with anxieties both very different from and yet surprisingly similar to those of our own today."

Nationalization

Federal Government to own more than 50%

Hope Congress doesn't start deciding models to make, plants to keep/close.

G.M.’s Plan Includes More Aid and Debt Exchange - NYTimes.com: 

"By exchanging stock for its bonds and by converting its debt to the Treasury Department and to a retiree health care fund for the United Automobile Workers union, G.M. said it can eliminate $44 billion in debt. The Treasury and the U.A.W. would own up to 89 percent of the company’s outstanding shares, while bondholders would hold no more than 10 percent and current shareholders would hold 1 percent."

Third Party Talks

Most of the news about Detroit has been about the UAW and the bondholders, but the dealers are an issue too.

Car Dealers' Next Headache: Inventory Loans - WSJ.com: 

"The administration's auto task force has been considering indirect ways of helping dealers, such as measures that would allow GM and Chrysler to once again offer leases on new vehicles, something they stopped doing last summer, people familiar with the matter said. They are also looking at how the auto makers can trim dealer networks."

100 days and things start to change

Likely not the last change in plans

Exceptions to Iraq Deadline Are Proposed - NYTimes.com: 

"The United States and Iraq will begin negotiating possible exceptions to the June 30 deadline for withdrawing American combat troops from Iraqi cities, focusing on the troubled northern city of Mosul, according to military officials. Some parts of Baghdad also will still have combat troops."

One of Detroit's problems

Much has been said about Problems for GM with UAW and Bondholders

But dealer contracts are another issue, and likely cause for going the bankruptcy route.

Pontiac Headed for Junk Yard - WSJ.com:

"GM's last automotive division to be eliminated was Oldsmobile in 2000. That decision cost GM billions of dollars in dealer-buyout costs, led to messy litigation and frayed many relationships with dealers and buyers."

Zing

Christopher takes on Evangelicals

Hitchens: Why Texas Is Right on Teaching Evolution | Newsweek Culture | Newsweek.com:

"So by all means let's 'be honest with the kids,' as Dr. Don McLeroy, the chairman of the Texas education board, wants us to be. The problem is that he is urging that the argument be taught, not in a history or in a civics class, but in a biology class. And one of his supporters on the board, Ken Mercer, has said that evolution is disproved by the absence of any transitional forms between dogs and cats. If any state in the American union gave equal time in science class to such claims, it would certainly make itself unique in the world (perhaps no shame in that). But it would also set a precedent for the sharing of the astronomy period with the teaching of astrology, or indeed of equal time as between chemistry and alchemy. Less boring perhaps, but also much less scientific and less educational."

Something to like about Paul Krugman

I too found inspiration in Isaac Asimov's Foundation series, with the model that a society could be modeled and predictions made.

Never about the individual, but large enough groups.

Colored my thinking in college, with studies in Poli-Sci and "Economics"

Attack From the Left: Paul Krugman's Poison Pen | Newsweek Business | Newsweek.com

Krugman says he found himself in the science fiction of Isaac Asimov, especially the "Foundation" series—"It was nerds saving civilization, quants who had a theory of society, people writing equations on a blackboard, saying, 'See, unless you follow this formula, the empire will fail and be followed by a thousand years of barbarism'."

File under What the F?

So we are to suppose that the Executives don't know what they have?

Someone (The Fed) has to tell management about the quality of their balance sheets.

What are these guys hired to do?

Banking Should Be Boring! 

U.S. to Tell Big Banks the Results of Stress Test - NYTimes.com: 

"After a two-month wait, the nation’s 19 largest banks will start learning on Friday how they fared in important federal examinations — and which among them will need another bailout from the government or private investors."

Felix Roatyn, who helped bail out NYCity in the '70's :

"Well, the answer is, I don't know. And I won't know until it's over, because so many things can happen.

Now we -- because it is a political issue, we are looking for very -- we're not looking for, but we're going through very complicated structures. And I've always been convinced that, in finances and most everything else, every level of complication adds three or four levels of difficulty and the likelihood of failure. - CNN GPS a couple of weeks ago

Whoops

Even if it contains a grain of truth, sometimes it's best not to say it at a press affair ...

One factor through Chinese history has been risk of unrest.

 Jackie Chan Says Chinese Need Control - NYTimes.com: 

"It’s not unusual for actors to stumble when they talk about politics, but Jackie Chan, below, has struck a nerve on a particularly divisive issue. In the southern Chinese province of Hainan on Saturday Mr. Chan, the action star, told a group of business leaders, “I’m not sure if it’s good to have freedom or not,” The Associated Press reported. He also said: “I’m gradually beginning to feel that we Chinese need to be controlled. If we’re not being controlled, we’ll just do what we want.”"

Last Snow?

This afternoon, along M-72
Maybe we get some more, but most likely just dusting

Woods, a little snow, then hay and corn

Cherry Blossom time

Back from Nihon (Japan) and headed home shortly
We'll get our own cherry blossoms soon

Following gives a small sense of the attitude in Nihon where cherry blossoms are celebrated for beauty and change, not as a crop with future cash.

asahi.com（朝日新聞社）：A cherry tree's personality lies in its trunk - English:

"Spring is the go-between that enables people to meet cherry trees. This year's spring is deepening, never to return."

--The Asahi Shimbun, April 12(IHT/Asahi: April 20,2009)

Huh?

Save the Dinosaurs

Ban internet news

Frankly, the only newsprint that comes into our house are with two weeklies, the Leelanau Enterprise and Northern Express

Why in the world would Congress investigate the harvesting of trees for news?

Congress Gets Into the ‘Future of News’ Game - Bits Blog - NYTimes.com: "If you think of Congressional hearings, at least in part, as a highly ritualized form of national cocktail-party conversation, it was inevitable that the spotlight in Washington would turn to the fate of newspapers."

Huh?

Ponto-Cho Street Kyoto

Just wondering ...



Where was James sent?

60 second profile

Glad to have met Stewart, and I follow much of his work

Domains - Stewart Brand - On the Waterfront - Interview - NYTimes.com

11 course meal

Posted on
Earthy Delights

Summary of a delicious evening of traditional japanese cusine

Some photo's posted

From our visit on a gray drizzly day
Light traffic

Zen - Nanzenji - a set on Flickr

Nanzenji Temple in Kyoto, Japan

"Nanzen-ji (Southern Mountain Temple) is considered the most famous and important Zen temple in the world. Home of the Rinzai sect of Zen Buddhism the temple consists of 12 sub-temples, which only a few are open to the public. Also within the temple grounds are several gardens, of which only three are available to be viewed."

Shinkansen

Shinkansen "Super Express" (as opposed to Express) arriving Osaka, which we take to Tokyo, then switch train to Narita
Hey - we made it all the way.

Mostly posted for grandson ...

From Japan

I've just learned that it is considered a sign of good fortune to see Mt. Fuji-san on a clear day

Can't get much clearer than this

and it continues

Paul Krugman

Op-Ed Columnist - Making Banking Boring - NYTimes.com

Good stuff on swings in banking over the last century

I put it in a much shorter post early Feb
Looney Dunes: Banking should be boring

More pain to come?

Koi

Imperial Palace East Garden

Koi and Cherry Blossom pedals



Note : uploaded 4/17 but backdated to be approx reset to proper time

Imagery

Hopefully I got it close with my profile pic.
At least the smile part

Seth's Blog: The power of a tiny picture (how to improve your social network brand):

"The power of a tiny picture (how to improve your social network brand)

If it's important enough for you to spend your time finding and connecting with new people online, it's important enough to get the first impression right."

Business as usual

Any bets on if it will change?

Editorial - Earmarks of Scandal - NYTimes.com:

"The Justice Department is investigating whether PMA used illegal straw donors to lard the campaign kitties of cooperative lawmakers. The firm — which shut itself down after being raided by federal agents — fed and fed richly off the defense appropriations subcommittee led by Representative John Murtha, the House baron of Pentagon spending."

"Ms. Pelosi cannot ignore this sorry churn of taxpayer money. Newcomers and moderates are right in warning that if the House majority doesn’t police itself, it will lose credibility all the way to the next election."

Government Motors

So Washington is going to solve the auto industry's problems.

How to move the inventory?
Maybe just ban big cars, vans, SUV's ?

But Congress won't move to raise gas taxes, which might influence consumer behavior, maybe help the Highway Trust Fund.

Industry's Big Hope for Small Cars Fades - WSJ.com:

"Practically every small car in the market is stacked up at dealerships. At the end of February, Honda Motor Co. had 22,191 Fits on dealer lots -- enough to last 125 days at the current sales rate, according to Autodata Corp. In July, it had a nine-day supply, while the industry generally considers a 55- to 60-day supply healthy.

For other models the supply situation is even worse. Toyota Motor Corp. has enough Yaris subcompacts to last 175 days. Chrysler LLC has a 205-day supply of the Dodge Caliber. And Chevrolet dealers have 427 days' worth of Aveo subcompacts. At the current sales rate, General Motors Corp. could stop making the Aveo and it wouldn't run out until May 24, 2010.

'I don't think Americans really like small cars,' said Beau Boeckmann, whose family's Galpin Ford in southern California is the country's largest Ford dealer. 'They drive them when they think they have to, when gas prices are high. But we're big people and we like big cars.'

The logjam of small cars is caused in part by the recession, which has sapped sales of all types of vehicles. But it also underscores how badly gasoline prices have whipsawed the industry. A year ago, car companies rushed to react when Americans practically stopped buying large vehicles and flocked to hybrids and small cars."

About Weirdness

Caught on radio
Most interesting

Living on Earth: Alien Life on Earth

"Strange life forms don't have to be the domain of distant planets and old Star Trek episodes. Astro-biologist Paul Davies says life as we don't know it might already exist in our own backyard. Davies talks with host Bruce Gellerman about the possibility of life on Earth evolving more than once, and about why scientists should launch a "mission to Earth" to find alien life."

Radio

OK, my 15 seconds of fame

WIAA NewsRoom

Interview from week ago yesterday on our Cherry Capital Foods

More on news vs newspapers

Following this

Looney Dunes: Good read on change in news

Clay Shirky tackles the issue, with some more looking back (to Gutenberg):

Newspapers and Thinking the Unthinkable

Response to the witch-hunt

One senior AIG exec's response to Congress and NY and CT AG's attacks

Op-Ed Contributor - Dear A.I.G., I Quit! - NYTimes.com

"So what am I to do? There’s no easy answer. I know that because of hard work I have benefited more than most during the economic boom and have saved enough that my family is unlikely to suffer devastating losses during the current bust. Some might argue that members of my profession have been overpaid, and I wouldn’t disagree.

That is why I have decided to donate 100 percent of the effective after-tax proceeds of my retention payment directly to organizations that are helping people who are suffering from the global downturn. This is not a tax-deduction gimmick; I simply believe that I at least deserve to dictate how my earnings are spent, and do not want to see them disappear back into the obscurity of A.I.G.’s or the federal government’s budget. Our earnings have caused such a distraction for so many from the more pressing issues our country faces, and I would like to see my share of it benefit those truly in need."

Spring breakup

Breeze 10-15MPH out of SW
Ice moving up on beach 10-20 ft

View that there is a fight brewing

Exxon vs. the Obama Administration - Portfolio.com:

"The biggest oil company in the world is also the most resistant to the shift to green energy. The White House seems determined to make Exxon Mobil’s life miserable."

Party Boy Prognosticator

Profile of NYU Economist Roubini - Portfolio.com:

"Life is good for New York University’s party-boy economist. Once regarded as a crank, he has parlayed his now-accurate predictions of an economic bust into fame, rising fortune, and a vigorous social life. But is the recession’s “Doctor Doom” just a one-hit wonder?"

Next?

When rates are low, the only thing that can happen may be ... bad

The Way We Live Now - No Safety in Numbers - Are Treasury Bonds a Bubble That May Someday Burst? - NYTimes.com:

"Warren Buffett wrote: “When the financial history of this decade is written, it will surely speak of the Internet bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the early 2000s. But the U.S. Treasury bond bubble of late 2008 may be regarded as almost equally extraordinary.”"

Rates could go up ... and therefore bonds would go down.

Volcano watch

May portend cooler spring

The Associated Press: Alaska volcano Mount Redoubt erupts 3 times

Geologists at the Alaska Volcano Observatory say the volcano erupted three times late Sunday and early Monday, with the largest eruption sending a plume of smoke some 50,000 feet above sea level.

Tracking here :
Alaska Volcano Observatory - Activity

File under Duh

"Systems" work until they don't

Physicists Try to Predict Economy - Portfolio.com

"Consider financial derivatives, for example. It’s taken for granted by economists that derivatives make markets more stable. They are designed to give market participants more flexibility by allowing them to take highly specific market positions. But some economists—notably William Brock of the University of ­Wisconsin and colleagues—have suggested that this view may be backward. They are exploring the consequences of adding one rather obvious fact to standard economic models: that people learn as they participate in markets and may quickly copy other investment strategies if they seem to be working. The result is a pile-on that makes the initial strategy ineffective. Brock’s results show that such adaptive learning leads to derivatives actually destabilizing markets."

Good read on change in news

With mainstream print newspapers dropping fast, the following is interesting.

stevenberlinjohnson.com: Old Growth Media And The Future Of News

Morphing to a distributed system, as opposed to monopolies.
Here is one place I think that Warren Buffett's model of investing in papers may break down, unless they can move to the web and retain their brands

Been there Done that

Traverse City Record-Eagle - Article: Flu, other bugs slam area: "Noroviruses have been prevalent this winter, including rapidly onset symptoms such as nausea, vomiting and diarrhea"

If it sounds too good to be true ...

Can losers sue to recover from they're own errors?
If so, where can I get some too.

Further, with the Made-off affair, how much of the multi-billion of losses was loss of phantom gains?

Talking Business - Investors Were Victims of Madoff, and of Their Own Folly - NYTimes.com:

"And yet, just about anybody who actually took the time to kick the tires of Mr. Madoff’s operation tended to run in the other direction. James R. Hedges IV, who runs an advisory firm called LJH Global Investments, says that in 1997 he spent two hours asking Mr. Madoff basic questions about his operation. “The explanation of his strategy, the consistency of his returns, the way he withheld information — it was a very clear set of warning signs,” said Mr. Hedges. When you look at the list of Madoff victims, it contains a lot of high-profile names — but almost no serious institutional investors or endowments. They insist on knowing the kind of information Mr. Madoff refused to supply.

I suppose you could argue that most of Mr. Madoff’s direct investors lacked the ability or the financial sophistication of someone like Mr. Hedges. But it shouldn’t have mattered. Isn’t the first lesson of personal finance that you should never put all your money with one person or one fund? Even if you think your money manager is “God”? Diversification has many virtues; one of them is that you won’t lose everything if one of your money managers turns out to be a crook."

Such a fickle public

How quickly impressions change, or the new wears off.

But I suspect that if the economy improves, the ratings will too.
And I'd note that comments on the financial markets have gone from "don't pay attention to tracking polls", to "things are looking up."

Obama's Poll Numbers Are Falling to Earth - WSJ.com:

"Polling data show that Mr. Obama's approval rating is dropping and is below where George W. Bush was in an analogous period in 2001. Rasmussen Reports data shows that Mr. Obama's net presidential approval rating -- which is calculated by subtracting the number who strongly disapprove from the number who strongly approve -- is just six, his lowest rating to date.

Overall, Rasmussen Reports shows a 56%-43% approval, with a third strongly disapproving of the president's performance. This is a substantial degree of polarization so early in the administration. Mr. Obama has lost virtually all of his Republican support and a good part of his Independent support, and the trend is decidedly negative.

A detailed examination of presidential popularity after 50 days on the job similarly demonstrates a substantial drop in presidential approval relative to other elected presidents in the 20th and 21st centuries. The reason for this decline most likely has to do with doubts about the administration's policies and their impact on peoples' lives."

Mr. Schoen, formerly a pollster for President Bill Clinton...

Persepective on how to Manage

Self-explanatory

Preoccupations - For a Chef, a Comfort Zone Among the Pots and Pans - NYTimes.com:

"Given our schedules, it’s hard for executive chefs to be in the kitchen as often as we’d like, but I believe that my team performs better when they see me down in the trenches with them, appreciating the little things. It’s also where I’m happiest.

On my walk-throughs I mostly catch employees doing things right. But I also immediately notice when a sauce, for example, is wrong: too salty, too dark, too red, too loose. When that happens, the cook and I together will go back to the recipe to figure out what went awry, and I’ll give pointers on how to fix it. Mistakes don’t make me happy, but they happen all the time, and I see them as excellent opportunities to teach. Nobody wants to stagnate in their job; they want to master new techniques. My job is to continually help them grow."

Where's Alistare Cooke?

The end of TV as it once was.
Well, the end likely happened years ago with the passing of such gentlemen as Alistare Cooke of PBS's Masterpiece Theater, but folks - it's a Damn TV Show.

3 Arrests in Melee at ‘America’s Next Top Model’ Casting Call - NYTimes.com:

"It was America’s next top melee.

Getting ready from Howard Beale (Network: the movie)

An open casting call for the reality television program “America’s Next Top Model” turned into mayhem on Saturday afternoon in Midtown Manhattan. Fights broke out, three people were arrested and at least six others suffered minor injuries after they were pushed down in a crush of thousands of aspiring models waiting in line to be discovered."

Smackdown ?

Nah
It's all about advertising anyway
For Comedy channel, CNBC ... and NYTimes
Anyone who follows Cramer for deep insight is making a mistake

I'll listen from time to time for tidbits, but not deep thinking.
And for Stewart's idea that cable news/financial channels should be gatekeepers of veracity and insight ... ah well.

I guess it patterns to the idea that so many get their "news" from John Stewart !

The TV Watch - High Noon on the Set - Jim Cramer vs. Jon Stewart - NYTimes.com:

"Part of Mr. Stewart’s frustration may stem from the fact that while he clearly won the debate, Mr. Cramer and CNBC stood to profit from the encounter. In today’s television news market, that cable network and its stars are like the financiers they cover: media short-sellers trading shamelessly on publicity, good or bad, so long as it drives up ratings. There isn’t enough regulation on Wall Street, and there’s hardly any accountability on cable news: it’s a 24-hour star system in which opinions — and showmanship — matter more than facts."

Addemdum - George Will on ABC with George Stephanoplis: "you don't take financial advice from someone who's yelling..."

Rocket Science is OK on The Street

As long as you don't treat them like religon.
They are just models, not facts.

The flaw is in drinking the kool-aid and then leveraging up on the ideas.

They Tried to Outsmart Wall Street - NYTimes.com:

"As Dr. Derman put it in his book “My Life as a Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance,” “In physics there may one day be a Theory of Everything; in finance and the social sciences, you’re lucky if there is a useable theory of anything.”

Asked to compare her work to physics, one quant, who requested anonymity because her company had not given her permission to talk to reporters, termed the market “a wild beast” that cannot be controlled, and then added: “It’s not like building a bridge. If you’re right more than half the time you’re winning the game.”"

Do you Trust Bankers ?

Let's make that, Do you trust big bankers

Donny Deutsch takes apart Ken Lewis of Bank of America for outrageous claims on advertising and promotion. About 3 min in.
Lewis apparently claims 10:1 payback for sports marketing.
Donny says it's unprovable

Banking should be boring

Much more eloquent than me

In Business, Simplicity Is Golden - Forbes.com:

If it doesn't make sense, maybe it simply doesn't make sense...

Third time the charm?

Piece from 2005 on Duh Donald.

We'll likely watch the make believe "Celebrity Apprentice" just to poke fun at the "host"

Will this recession be another series of failures for his "empire"


What's He Really Worth? - New York Times:

"By 1993, with his casinos in hock, most of his real estate holdings either forfeited or stagnant and his father slipping into the fog of Alzheimer's disease, Donald Trump, at the age of 47, had run out of money. There were no funds left to keep him aloft, and as the bare-bones operation he maintained in Manhattan started to grind to a halt, he ordered Nick Ribis, the Trump Organization's president, to call his siblings and ask for a handout from their trusts. Donald needed about $10 million for his living and office expenses, but he had no collateral to provide his brother and sisters, all three of whom wanted a guarantee that he would repay them.

The Trump children's anticipated share of their father's fortune amounted to about $35 million each, and Donald's siblings demanded that he sign a promissory note pledging future distributions from his trust fund against the $10 million he wanted to borrow."

It's not just Detroit that's got troubles

Trying to sell $100,000+ cars with questionable technology looks like a bad bet.

Deathwatch: Why Tesla's Elon Musk Could Be the New Preston Tucker:

"In October, Valleywag reported that Tesla Motors was down to $9 million in the bank. Musk confirmed the company's cash position, and promised he would raise another $40 million in convertible debt from existing investors. But the fundraising is taking longer than planned. At a recent town hall meeting with customers, Musk reportedly told Tesla buyers that the company almost ran out of money in December, before it raised part of the round. Tesla is still seeking new funds."

Who should be fired ?

How about ... "Duh Donald"

The Associated Press: Trump venture folds, leaving buyers strapped:

"Investors were told last month their money was spent and they won't get a penny back. A single mother in suburban Los Angeles lost $200,000 and won't be able to send her sons to private universities. A Los Angeles-area businessman lost a deposit of more than $1 million on four Trump units, including two penthouses.

The project's collapse comes at a delicate time for Trump, whose casino company, Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc., filed for bankruptcy protection last month. He also is embroiled in a lawsuit to avoid paying debt on the struggling Trump International Hotel & Tower in Chicago.

Trump and his children heavily promoted the northern tip of Mexico's Baja California coast. He sold 188 units for $122 million the first day they went on a sale at a lavish event in a downtown San Diego hotel in December 2006."

Markets don't matter

Advise for pensioners, and those with 401K or other retirement plans ... those who view their portfolios as 201K's should ignore their statements.

Don't worry, be happy
Right

Stocks Should Matter to Obama - WSJ.com:
"Presidents usually pretend they don't pay much attention to such stock-market gyrations. If it's been said once from a White House podium, it's been said a thousand times: 'Markets rise, markets fall. We worry about the fundamentals of the economy instead.'

President Barack Obama gave his own version of that response this week, declaring in response to a reporter's question: 'You know, the stock market is sort of like a tracking poll in politics. It bobs up and down day to day, and if you spend all your time worrying about that, then you're probably going to get the long-term strategy wrong.'"

Lest anyone think I'm a Republican

Rush is an entertainer, nothing more, nothing less.
And an ill informed one at that

Caught up in his own bravado and hype.
Call it ... 'drinks his own kool-aid"

Allowing the Democrats to position him as the spokesperson of the Republican party is just foolishness

The GOP's Limbaugh Dilemma - WSJ.com:

"Rush Limbaugh is right where he wants to be and right where the White House wants him: in the news. But Republicans have more mixed feelings about the controversial talk radio host's recent elevation."

What the F ???

But but but ... this is suppose to be the administration of change ...

The Obama Justice Department Adopts the George W. Bush Administration's Legal Stance on Presidential Powers - WSJ.com:

"The Obama Justice Department has adopted a legal stance identical to, if not more aggressive than, the Bush version. It argues that the court-forced disclosure of the surveillance programs would cause 'exceptional harm to national security' by exposing intelligence sources and methods. Last Friday the Ninth Circuit denied the latest emergency motion to dismiss, again kicking matters back to Judge Walker"

Change you can count on

When?

Maureen Dowd on pork in the budget.
Just veto it.

Op-Ed Columnist - Stage of Fools - NYTimes.com:

"In one of his disturbing spells of passivity, President Obama decided not to fight Congress and live up to his own no-earmark pledge from the campaign.

He’s been lecturing us on the need to prune away frills while the economy fizzles. He was slated to make a speech on “wasteful spending” on Wednesday.

“You know, there are times where you can afford to redecorate your house and there are times where you need to focus on rebuilding its foundation,” he said recently about the “hard choices” we must make. Yet he did not ask Congress to sacrifice and make hard choices; he let it do a lot of frivolous redecorating in its budget."

Bubble Bubble, Toil & Trouble

Piece from last Sept laying out where to point for blame
I would add borrowers who knew that their purchases, from the dot-com bubble to real estate were too good to be true.

Click link for entire piece

Calling Out the Culprits Who Caused the Crisis - washingtonpost.com

By Eric D. Hovde

Sunday, September 21, 2008; Page B01

Looking for someone to blame for the shambles in U.S. financial markets? As someone who owns both an investment bank and commercial banks, and also runs a hedge fund, I have sat front and center and watched as this mess unfolded. And in my view, there's no need to look beyond Wall Street -- and the halls of power in Washington. The former has created the nightmare by chasing obscene profits, and the latter have allowed it to spread by not practicing the oversight that is the federal government's responsibility.

Calling it as he sees it

Scathing comments from Jim
Let failures ... fail

Jim Rogers Doesn't Mince Words About the Crisis - BusinessWeek:

"He has harsh words for former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, suggests President Barack Obama and his economic team are not up to the task, and thinks tough love is the answer for America.
MARIA BARTIROMO

What do you think of the government's response to the economic crisis?
JIM ROGERS

Terrible. They're making it worse. It's pretty embarrassing for President Obama, who doesn't seem to have a clue what's going on—which would make sense from his background. And he has hired people who are part of the problem. [Treasury Secretary Tim] Geithner was head of the New York Fed, which was supposedly in charge of Wall Street and the banks more than anybody else. And as you remember, [Obama's chief economic adviser, Larry] Summers helped bail out Long-Term Capital Management years ago. These are people who think the only solution is to save their friends on Wall Street rather than to save 300 million Americans."

Small mindedness

I never thought that Billy was the brightest guy in the room
Ruthless, but not necessarily "smart"

Simon Simenov's blog

HighContrast:

"I’m all for dogfooding but not at the expense of deep competitive research. Sometimes you just have to live with your competitors’ products in order to understand them the way their customers do. I guess now that Bill Gates is focused on the foundation he is no longer interested in deeply understanding Microsoft competitors’ products. No other way to describe why iPhones and iPods are banned in the Gates household. What better way to learn about your competitors’ secret sauce than watch how your kids use their products?"

Bit of, a contradiction

I followed the link to this (Thanks Jason) and read it
In other words, my behavior, in large part, contradicted the author's premise of too many distractions to be able to read something through.

And I rather enjoy the multitude of links to other, related, ideas.

The Sun Magazine | Computing The Cost

Anyone who has spent a few hours on the Internet understands how reading a single paragraph can lead to a multimedia journey so far-reaching you forget what you originally went online to look up.

Hunting

Sub Title - oh deer

9:20 this AM
Same pair that were about 50 yards out on the lake yesterday
This time, right on the beach

Tonight, we heard the yips, maybe they go their deer
We'll know soon, will do head count of the ones that visit 3 times a day

Channeling Ayn Rand?

Click on the title for link to CNBC snippet by Eric Hovde on the insanity of some of the proposals coming from Washington

Are we indeed deciding to further gut capitalism, destroy charities, move towards socialism
He lays out spending on high speed rail - from Disneyland to Las Vegas - like huh?

While I agree that there have been gross excesses, is the answer to let the free market clear up the mess or is it to rely on elected officials?

The stock market points to fears that it goes to the politicians.

Capital is on strike.

James Baker on Banking

Flush management, boards, and shareholders, bondholders if possible.

Again, Banking Should be Boring

FT.com / Comment / Opinion - How Washington can prevent ‘zombie banks’:

"Many are to blame for the current situation. But we have no time for finger-pointing or partisan posturing. This crisis demands a pragmatic, comprehensive plan. We simply cannot continue to muddle through it with a Band-Aid approach.

During the 1990s, American officials routinely urged their Japanese counterparts to kill their zombie banks before they could do more damage to Japan’s economy. Today, it would be irresponsible if we did not heed our own advice."

Do the right thing

Good stuff from Seth
Fits my ideas about Cherry Capital Foods
Substitute sales and delivery for marketing

Seth's Blog: Is marketing evil?:

"For me, marketing works for society when the marketer and consumer are both aware of what's happening and are both satisfied with the ultimate outcome. I don't think it's evil to make someone happy by selling them cosmetics, because beauty isn't the goal, it's the process that brings joy. On the other hand, swindling someone out of their house in order to make a sales commission..."

Again - Banking should be Boring

Nouriel Roubini Says Nationalizing the Banks Is the Market-Friendly Solution - WSJ.com:

Mr. Roubini tells me that bank nationalization "is something the partisans would have regarded as anathema a few weeks ago. But when I and others put it in the context of the Swedish approach [of the 1990s] -- i.e. you take banks over, you clean them up, and you sell them in rapid order to the private sector -- it's clear that it's temporary. No one's in favor of a permanent government takeover of the financial system."

There's another reason why the concept should appeal to (fiscal) conservatives, he explains. "The idea that government will fork out trillions of dollars to try to rescue financial institutions, and throw more money after bad dollars, is not appealing because then the fiscal cost is much larger. So rather than being seen as something Bolshevik, nationalization is seen as pragmatic. Paradoxically, the proposal is more market-friendly than the alternative of zombie banks."

and...

What exactly is Nouriel Roubini's economic philosophy? "I believe in market economics," he says, with some emphasis. "But to paraphrase Churchill -- who said this about democracy and political regimes -- a market economy might be the worst economic regime available, apart from the alternatives.

"I believe that people react to incentives, that incentives matter, and that prices reflect the way things should be allocated. But I also believe that market economies sometimes have market failures, and when these occur, there's a role for prudential -- not excessive -- regulation of the financial system. The two things that Greenspan got totally wrong were his beliefs that, one, markets self-regulate, and two, that there's no market failure."

How could Mr. Greenspan have been so naïve, I ask, hoping to get a rise. "Well," says Mr. Roubini, "at some level it's good to have a framework to think about the world, in which you emphasize the role of incentives and market economics . . . fair enough! But I think it led to an excessive ideological belief that there are no market failures, and no issues of distortions on incentives. Also, central banks were created to provide financial stability. Greenspan forgot this, and that was a mistake. I think there were ideological blinders, taking Ayn Rand's view of the world to an extreme.

"Again, I don't want to personalize things, but the last decade was one of self-regulation. But in the financial markets, without proper institutional rules, there's the law of the jungle -- because there's greed! There's nothing wrong with greed, per se. It's not that people are more greedy now than they were 20 years ago. But greed has to be tempered, first, by fear of losses. So if you bail people out, there's less fear. And second, by prudential regulation and supervision to avoid certain excesses."

How does Mr. Roubini think the media has covered the financial crisis? "The problem," he says -- after first stating to me that he intends "no offense!" -- "is that in the bubble years, everyone becomes a cheerleader, including the media. This is the time when journalists should be asking tough questions, and I think there was a failure there. The Masters of the Universe were always on the cover, or the front page -- the hedge-fund guys, the imperial CEO, private equity. I wish there had been more financial and business journalists, in the good years, who'd said, 'Wait a moment, if this man, or this firm, is making a 100% return a year, how do they do it? Is it because they're smarter than everybody else . . . or because they're taking so much risk they'll be bankrupt two years down the line?'

"And I think, in the bubble years, no one asked the hard questions. A good journalist has to be one who, in good times, challenges the conventional wisdom. If you don't do that, you fail in one of your duties."

London calling

London in it's various forms over the last couple decades and prospects for the future

Reykjavik-on-Thames | The Economist:

"London’s other names, and what they say about Britain’s recent history"

More posts on current affairs

I should think that there would be a great variety of instruments that could be used, rather than each deal being "individual" there could also be methods to customize deals, while still allowing the transparency that open markets can provide.

That's what options and derivatives should be about, but they must be based on clarity, not obfuscation. Truth in borrowing, not falsehoods.

In time, we'll see this and it will help bring the finance markets back to life.
Can't be soon enough ...

Jan 29th '09

Taming the unruly OTC market | Drugstore cowboys | The Economist:

"The exchanges say that by offering the flexibility of OTC markets with central clearing and automated processing, they provide the best of both worlds: customisation (within limits) coupled with reduced counterparty and operational risk. Counterparty risk is reduced since all parties work through the same clearing mechanism. That leaves less chance of gridlock when a big institution fails. Operational risks are fewer, because exchanges have been early adopters of automated processing systems, whereas OTC systems are often outdated and time-consuming. Exchanges, finally, produce a plethora of information about prices and markets, a valuable public good.

This could mark a reversal of fortune for the OTC market, where trading volumes had grown to almost $700 trillion at last count, a ninefold increase in a decade. Yet OTC products have their own blessings; they allow bankers to tailor financial products to their customers’ needs. Their relationship with exchanges need not be wholly adversarial. Financial innovations may start out in OTC markets and move to exchanges as they mature. Youth may sometimes be wild, but it should be nurtured, not suppressed."

A collection of links on Current Events

From Jan 22, '09

An excellent compilation of reports on current mess and how bankers got us here:

A special report on the future of finance: The collapse of finance | Greed—and fear | The Economist

Of particular interest is this:
A special report on the future of finance: Fallible mathematical models | In Plato's cave | The Economist:

"Mathematical models are a powerful way of predicting financial markets. But they are fallible"

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My Mantra : Banking Should Be Boring
High returns come from high risk - not what banks should have gotten into.

How to make bad banks work | The spectre of nationalisation | The Economist:

"Economists have long recognised that banks are special. Through decades-old relationships with millions of households and businesses, they normally (though, sadly, not recently) steer savings to productive and lucrative endeavours. Letting banks collapse would wipe out this critical mechanism; nationalising them could, eventually, do it similar damage."

From Jan 29th '09

Fiscal stimulus is the right policy when consumers and business close their wallets, but ...

Will governments' fiscal stimulus plans work? | Big government fights back | The Economist:

"This need not be calamitous. Governments can work off huge debt burdens without default or high inflation. During the second world war, for instance, Britain’s gross debt burden rose above 200% of GDP; America’s topped 120%. During the 1990s, fast growth and fiscal prudence allowed countries from Ireland to Canada to cut their debt levels sharply.

The difference this time is that the rich world already faces the costs of an ageing population, which promise a fiscal burden many times greater than even the darkest scenarios for the financial crisis. Right now fiscal activism is indispensable, but the consequences will be bigger and longer-lasting than many realise."

I'm wondering if part of the current problem is that the leading edge of the boomers are pulling out, never to return.

From Jan 22nd '09:

Because China has no other place to invest, rates were driven too low, and bankers didn't recycle funds as maybe they should have.

Capital flows and the financial crisis | When a flow becomes a flood | The Economist:

"The deep causes of the financial crisis lie in global imbalances—mainly, America’s huge current-account deficit and China’s huge surplus"

"What persuades developing countries to export capital to the rich world that might be better used at home? Influences on saving vary from region to region. The income of oil-exporting countries, for instance, has ballooned since 2004 because of higher prices for crude. It would have been neither feasible nor wise for oil-rich nations to spend this windfall at home, so much of it was saved and sent abroad. Economists who have looked for something that unifies the saving behaviour of a disparate group of countries, from oil-exporters to metal-bashers, have converged on one important motive: the need to acquire reliable stores of value that can be sold easily when trouble strikes.

This idea has been developed in a series of papers by Ricardo Caballero of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Emmanuel Farhi of Harvard University and Berkeley’s Mr Gourinchas. Their thesis is that emerging countries cannot create enough trustworthy saving vehicles to keep up with the pace of economic growth, because their financial markets are immature. Householders cannot rely on a ready supply of credit—or on government safety nets—so must save hard for a rainy day. But the domestic supply of financial assets is unreliable so the thrifty plump for foreign assets instead. America is the favoured place because it has broad and liquid markets for securities."