Good stuff from Seth
Fits my ideas about Cherry Capital Foods
Substitute sales and delivery for marketing
Seth's Blog: Is marketing evil?:
"For me, marketing works for society when the marketer and consumer are both aware of what's happening and are both satisfied with the ultimate outcome. I don't think it's evil to make someone happy by selling them cosmetics, because beauty isn't the goal, it's the process that brings joy. On the other hand, swindling someone out of their house in order to make a sales commission..."
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Monday, February 23, 2009
Again - Banking should be Boring
Nouriel Roubini Says Nationalizing the Banks Is the Market-Friendly Solution - WSJ.com:
Mr. Roubini tells me that bank nationalization "is something the partisans would have regarded as anathema a few weeks ago. But when I and others put it in the context of the Swedish approach [of the 1990s] -- i.e. you take banks over, you clean them up, and you sell them in rapid order to the private sector -- it's clear that it's temporary. No one's in favor of a permanent government takeover of the financial system."
Mr. Roubini tells me that bank nationalization "is something the partisans would have regarded as anathema a few weeks ago. But when I and others put it in the context of the Swedish approach [of the 1990s] -- i.e. you take banks over, you clean them up, and you sell them in rapid order to the private sector -- it's clear that it's temporary. No one's in favor of a permanent government takeover of the financial system."
There's another reason why the concept should appeal to (fiscal) conservatives, he explains. "The idea that government will fork out trillions of dollars to try to rescue financial institutions, and throw more money after bad dollars, is not appealing because then the fiscal cost is much larger. So rather than being seen as something Bolshevik, nationalization is seen as pragmatic. Paradoxically, the proposal is more market-friendly than the alternative of zombie banks."
and...What exactly is Nouriel Roubini's economic philosophy? "I believe in market economics," he says, with some emphasis. "But to paraphrase Churchill -- who said this about democracy and political regimes -- a market economy might be the worst economic regime available, apart from the alternatives.
"I believe that people react to incentives, that incentives matter, and that prices reflect the way things should be allocated. But I also believe that market economies sometimes have market failures, and when these occur, there's a role for prudential -- not excessive -- regulation of the financial system. The two things that Greenspan got totally wrong were his beliefs that, one, markets self-regulate, and two, that there's no market failure."
How could Mr. Greenspan have been so naïve, I ask, hoping to get a rise. "Well," says Mr. Roubini, "at some level it's good to have a framework to think about the world, in which you emphasize the role of incentives and market economics . . . fair enough! But I think it led to an excessive ideological belief that there are no market failures, and no issues of distortions on incentives. Also, central banks were created to provide financial stability. Greenspan forgot this, and that was a mistake. I think there were ideological blinders, taking Ayn Rand's view of the world to an extreme.
"Again, I don't want to personalize things, but the last decade was one of self-regulation. But in the financial markets, without proper institutional rules, there's the law of the jungle -- because there's greed! There's nothing wrong with greed, per se. It's not that people are more greedy now than they were 20 years ago. But greed has to be tempered, first, by fear of losses. So if you bail people out, there's less fear. And second, by prudential regulation and supervision to avoid certain excesses."
How does Mr. Roubini think the media has covered the financial crisis? "The problem," he says -- after first stating to me that he intends "no offense!" -- "is that in the bubble years, everyone becomes a cheerleader, including the media. This is the time when journalists should be asking tough questions, and I think there was a failure there. The Masters of the Universe were always on the cover, or the front page -- the hedge-fund guys, the imperial CEO, private equity. I wish there had been more financial and business journalists, in the good years, who'd said, 'Wait a moment, if this man, or this firm, is making a 100% return a year, how do they do it? Is it because they're smarter than everybody else . . . or because they're taking so much risk they'll be bankrupt two years down the line?'
"And I think, in the bubble years, no one asked the hard questions. A good journalist has to be one who, in good times, challenges the conventional wisdom. If you don't do that, you fail in one of your duties."
Sunday, February 22, 2009
London calling
London in it's various forms over the last couple decades and prospects for the future
Reykjavik-on-Thames | The Economist:
"London’s other names, and what they say about Britain’s recent history"
Reykjavik-on-Thames | The Economist:
"London’s other names, and what they say about Britain’s recent history"
More posts on current affairs
I should think that there would be a great variety of instruments that could be used, rather than each deal being "individual" there could also be methods to customize deals, while still allowing the transparency that open markets can provide.
That's what options and derivatives should be about, but they must be based on clarity, not obfuscation. Truth in borrowing, not falsehoods.
In time, we'll see this and it will help bring the finance markets back to life.
Can't be soon enough ...
Jan 29th '09
Taming the unruly OTC market | Drugstore cowboys | The Economist:
"The exchanges say that by offering the flexibility of OTC markets with central clearing and automated processing, they provide the best of both worlds: customisation (within limits) coupled with reduced counterparty and operational risk. Counterparty risk is reduced since all parties work through the same clearing mechanism. That leaves less chance of gridlock when a big institution fails. Operational risks are fewer, because exchanges have been early adopters of automated processing systems, whereas OTC systems are often outdated and time-consuming. Exchanges, finally, produce a plethora of information about prices and markets, a valuable public good.
This could mark a reversal of fortune for the OTC market, where trading volumes had grown to almost $700 trillion at last count, a ninefold increase in a decade. Yet OTC products have their own blessings; they allow bankers to tailor financial products to their customers’ needs. Their relationship with exchanges need not be wholly adversarial. Financial innovations may start out in OTC markets and move to exchanges as they mature. Youth may sometimes be wild, but it should be nurtured, not suppressed."
That's what options and derivatives should be about, but they must be based on clarity, not obfuscation. Truth in borrowing, not falsehoods.
In time, we'll see this and it will help bring the finance markets back to life.
Can't be soon enough ...
Jan 29th '09
Taming the unruly OTC market | Drugstore cowboys | The Economist:
"The exchanges say that by offering the flexibility of OTC markets with central clearing and automated processing, they provide the best of both worlds: customisation (within limits) coupled with reduced counterparty and operational risk. Counterparty risk is reduced since all parties work through the same clearing mechanism. That leaves less chance of gridlock when a big institution fails. Operational risks are fewer, because exchanges have been early adopters of automated processing systems, whereas OTC systems are often outdated and time-consuming. Exchanges, finally, produce a plethora of information about prices and markets, a valuable public good.
This could mark a reversal of fortune for the OTC market, where trading volumes had grown to almost $700 trillion at last count, a ninefold increase in a decade. Yet OTC products have their own blessings; they allow bankers to tailor financial products to their customers’ needs. Their relationship with exchanges need not be wholly adversarial. Financial innovations may start out in OTC markets and move to exchanges as they mature. Youth may sometimes be wild, but it should be nurtured, not suppressed."
A collection of links on Current Events
From Jan 22, '09
An excellent compilation of reports on current mess and how bankers got us here:
A special report on the future of finance: The collapse of finance | Greed—and fear | The Economist
Of particular interest is this:
A special report on the future of finance: Fallible mathematical models | In Plato's cave | The Economist:
"Mathematical models are a powerful way of predicting financial markets. But they are fallible"
---
My Mantra : Banking Should Be Boring
High returns come from high risk - not what banks should have gotten into.
How to make bad banks work | The spectre of nationalisation | The Economist:
"Economists have long recognised that banks are special. Through decades-old relationships with millions of households and businesses, they normally (though, sadly, not recently) steer savings to productive and lucrative endeavours. Letting banks collapse would wipe out this critical mechanism; nationalising them could, eventually, do it similar damage."
From Jan 29th '09
Fiscal stimulus is the right policy when consumers and business close their wallets, but ...
Will governments' fiscal stimulus plans work? | Big government fights back | The Economist:
"This need not be calamitous. Governments can work off huge debt burdens without default or high inflation. During the second world war, for instance, Britain’s gross debt burden rose above 200% of GDP; America’s topped 120%. During the 1990s, fast growth and fiscal prudence allowed countries from Ireland to Canada to cut their debt levels sharply.
The difference this time is that the rich world already faces the costs of an ageing population, which promise a fiscal burden many times greater than even the darkest scenarios for the financial crisis. Right now fiscal activism is indispensable, but the consequences will be bigger and longer-lasting than many realise."
I'm wondering if part of the current problem is that the leading edge of the boomers are pulling out, never to return.
From Jan 22nd '09:
Because China has no other place to invest, rates were driven too low, and bankers didn't recycle funds as maybe they should have.
Capital flows and the financial crisis | When a flow becomes a flood | The Economist:
"The deep causes of the financial crisis lie in global imbalances—mainly, America’s huge current-account deficit and China’s huge surplus"
An excellent compilation of reports on current mess and how bankers got us here:
A special report on the future of finance: The collapse of finance | Greed—and fear | The Economist
Of particular interest is this:
A special report on the future of finance: Fallible mathematical models | In Plato's cave | The Economist:
"Mathematical models are a powerful way of predicting financial markets. But they are fallible"
---
My Mantra : Banking Should Be Boring
High returns come from high risk - not what banks should have gotten into.
How to make bad banks work | The spectre of nationalisation | The Economist:
"Economists have long recognised that banks are special. Through decades-old relationships with millions of households and businesses, they normally (though, sadly, not recently) steer savings to productive and lucrative endeavours. Letting banks collapse would wipe out this critical mechanism; nationalising them could, eventually, do it similar damage."
From Jan 29th '09
Fiscal stimulus is the right policy when consumers and business close their wallets, but ...
Will governments' fiscal stimulus plans work? | Big government fights back | The Economist:
"This need not be calamitous. Governments can work off huge debt burdens without default or high inflation. During the second world war, for instance, Britain’s gross debt burden rose above 200% of GDP; America’s topped 120%. During the 1990s, fast growth and fiscal prudence allowed countries from Ireland to Canada to cut their debt levels sharply.
The difference this time is that the rich world already faces the costs of an ageing population, which promise a fiscal burden many times greater than even the darkest scenarios for the financial crisis. Right now fiscal activism is indispensable, but the consequences will be bigger and longer-lasting than many realise."
I'm wondering if part of the current problem is that the leading edge of the boomers are pulling out, never to return.
From Jan 22nd '09:
Because China has no other place to invest, rates were driven too low, and bankers didn't recycle funds as maybe they should have.
Capital flows and the financial crisis | When a flow becomes a flood | The Economist:
"The deep causes of the financial crisis lie in global imbalances—mainly, America’s huge current-account deficit and China’s huge surplus"
"What persuades developing countries to export capital to the rich world that might be better used at home? Influences on saving vary from region to region. The income of oil-exporting countries, for instance, has ballooned since 2004 because of higher prices for crude. It would have been neither feasible nor wise for oil-rich nations to spend this windfall at home, so much of it was saved and sent abroad. Economists who have looked for something that unifies the saving behaviour of a disparate group of countries, from oil-exporters to metal-bashers, have converged on one important motive: the need to acquire reliable stores of value that can be sold easily when trouble strikes.
This idea has been developed in a series of papers by Ricardo Caballero of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Emmanuel Farhi of Harvard University and Berkeley’s Mr Gourinchas. Their thesis is that emerging countries cannot create enough trustworthy saving vehicles to keep up with the pace of economic growth, because their financial markets are immature. Householders cannot rely on a ready supply of credit—or on government safety nets—so must save hard for a rainy day. But the domestic supply of financial assets is unreliable so the thrifty plump for foreign assets instead. America is the favoured place because it has broad and liquid markets for securities."
Are some feeling let down already?
I was able, due in large part to travel and travel delays, to get caught up on some reading
Posting some pieces from the Economist (my favorite single magazine).
This one from Jan 24th on politics, the Lexington column
I'd posted previously on expectations ... might have been a bit high
Betrayed by Obama | The Economist:
"It has been only two-and-a-half months since Mr Obama was elected, but his “Yes, We Can” coalition is already fraying at the edges. In his appointments and pronouncements, Mr Obama keeps hinting that he is neither as radical nor as pure as his progressive supporters dared to hope. Anti-war activists, who rallied round him in the Democratic primaries because he was the only top-tier candidate to have opposed the Iraq war from the outset, now see worrying signs that their hero is a closet hawk. On the stump, he used to say things like: “I will bring this war to an end in 2009. So don’t be confused.” Now he says it might take a bit longer. To make matters worse, he has kept George Bush’s defence secretary, Robert Gates, in his job. “Not a single member of Obama’s foreign-policy [and] national-security team opposed the war,” fumes Katrina vanden Heuvel, the editor of the Nation, a lefty magazine, adding that Mr Gates is “a terrible pick”."
and then this :
"On anti-terrorism policy generally, Dick Cheney, the former vice-president, recently remarked that before Mr Obama started to keep his campaign promises, he needed “to sit down and find out precisely what it is we did and how we did it.” Mr Obama described this as “pretty good advice”. The people who used to flock to his rallies with placards demanding that Mr Bush and Mr Cheney be tried as war criminals are aghast, not least because Mr Obama appears disinclined to prosecute anyone.
For the left, the list of Mr Obama’s betrayals—real or anticipated—is getting longer. His economic advisers are nearly all centrists. Far from bringing capitalism to heel, he is planning to save it. His choice for attorney-general, Eric Holder, used to work for big corporations, making him a “poster-child for…selling out,” grumbles David Corn of Mother Jones, a progressive magazine. Unions fret that Mr Obama will not campaign hard enough to increase their clout. Greens worry that he will not move fast enough to rescue the planet. The National Organisation for Women complains that his economic-stimulus package will pump too much money into male-dominated industries such as construction, leaving only scraps for teachers and social workers."
Posting some pieces from the Economist (my favorite single magazine).
This one from Jan 24th on politics, the Lexington column
I'd posted previously on expectations ... might have been a bit high
Betrayed by Obama | The Economist:
"It has been only two-and-a-half months since Mr Obama was elected, but his “Yes, We Can” coalition is already fraying at the edges. In his appointments and pronouncements, Mr Obama keeps hinting that he is neither as radical nor as pure as his progressive supporters dared to hope. Anti-war activists, who rallied round him in the Democratic primaries because he was the only top-tier candidate to have opposed the Iraq war from the outset, now see worrying signs that their hero is a closet hawk. On the stump, he used to say things like: “I will bring this war to an end in 2009. So don’t be confused.” Now he says it might take a bit longer. To make matters worse, he has kept George Bush’s defence secretary, Robert Gates, in his job. “Not a single member of Obama’s foreign-policy [and] national-security team opposed the war,” fumes Katrina vanden Heuvel, the editor of the Nation, a lefty magazine, adding that Mr Gates is “a terrible pick”."
and then this :
"On anti-terrorism policy generally, Dick Cheney, the former vice-president, recently remarked that before Mr Obama started to keep his campaign promises, he needed “to sit down and find out precisely what it is we did and how we did it.” Mr Obama described this as “pretty good advice”. The people who used to flock to his rallies with placards demanding that Mr Bush and Mr Cheney be tried as war criminals are aghast, not least because Mr Obama appears disinclined to prosecute anyone.
For the left, the list of Mr Obama’s betrayals—real or anticipated—is getting longer. His economic advisers are nearly all centrists. Far from bringing capitalism to heel, he is planning to save it. His choice for attorney-general, Eric Holder, used to work for big corporations, making him a “poster-child for…selling out,” grumbles David Corn of Mother Jones, a progressive magazine. Unions fret that Mr Obama will not campaign hard enough to increase their clout. Greens worry that he will not move fast enough to rescue the planet. The National Organisation for Women complains that his economic-stimulus package will pump too much money into male-dominated industries such as construction, leaving only scraps for teachers and social workers."
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Watch what you say
Words can have an effect
Talk down the economy and it can go down, buy damaging confidence.
Not just consumer confidence, but by a series of confusing policies, capital can decide to stay on the sidelines.
Economic View - Can Talk of a Depression Lead to One? - News Analysis - NYTimes.com:
"This Depression narrative, however, is not merely a story about the past: It has started to inform our current expectations."
Talk down the economy and it can go down, buy damaging confidence.
Not just consumer confidence, but by a series of confusing policies, capital can decide to stay on the sidelines.
Economic View - Can Talk of a Depression Lead to One? - News Analysis - NYTimes.com:
"This Depression narrative, however, is not merely a story about the past: It has started to inform our current expectations."
Friday, February 13, 2009
Un-investable
From AP wire:
Wish I'd shorted this puppy when they lost my business
Fifth Third shares fall on stability concerns - Yahoo! Finance:
"Shares of the Cincinnati-based bank fell as much as 9 percent Friday, and recently traded down 6 cents, or 2.7 percent, to $2.14.
In a note to clients, senior analyst Kevin St. Pierre said more details are needed on how the government plans to administer its 'stress test' on banks with assets over $100 billion. This will determine not only if Fifth Third needs more capital, which he believes it does, but will also provide more insight on how much its shares could be diluted from further government investment.
As part of the government's overhaul of the $700 billion financial bailout package passed last fall, the Treasury Department has proposed a 'stress test' for the nation's largest banks to determine whether they can make loans on their own or need further government aid.
"Upon release of the details of the test and the minimum capital levels desired by the government, we will be better equipped to evaluate the viability of Fifth Third and the potential dilution involved with further injection of capital by the government," St. Pierre wrote. Until then, the bank is "un-investable," he said."
Wish I'd shorted this puppy when they lost my business
Fifth Third shares fall on stability concerns - Yahoo! Finance:
"Shares of the Cincinnati-based bank fell as much as 9 percent Friday, and recently traded down 6 cents, or 2.7 percent, to $2.14.
In a note to clients, senior analyst Kevin St. Pierre said more details are needed on how the government plans to administer its 'stress test' on banks with assets over $100 billion. This will determine not only if Fifth Third needs more capital, which he believes it does, but will also provide more insight on how much its shares could be diluted from further government investment.
As part of the government's overhaul of the $700 billion financial bailout package passed last fall, the Treasury Department has proposed a 'stress test' for the nation's largest banks to determine whether they can make loans on their own or need further government aid.
"Upon release of the details of the test and the minimum capital levels desired by the government, we will be better equipped to evaluate the viability of Fifth Third and the potential dilution involved with further injection of capital by the government," St. Pierre wrote. Until then, the bank is "un-investable," he said."
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Raunch on
All I can say is ... very very LOL
Totally non-PC
If you have gay (fag/queer/many other terms) friends
Or any friends of virtually any racial "profile" who enjoys very very blunt humor - check it out
very very funny S--t
HBO: Lisa Lampanelli: Long Live the Queen
Totally non-PC
If you have gay (fag/queer/many other terms) friends
Or any friends of virtually any racial "profile" who enjoys very very blunt humor - check it out
very very funny S--t
HBO: Lisa Lampanelli: Long Live the Queen
Need for white space
The Moraine Lake image would not size right
Or, likely, I didn't know the right settings
So
I need white space to move it down
See if this is enough
Almost
More
Or, likely, I didn't know the right settings
So
I need white space to move it down
See if this is enough
Almost
More
One of my al time favorite places
I've only been here about 4 times, starting in the mid 70's
Long overdue
BTW - the current lodge wasn't there when I started
Moraine Lake
Long overdue
BTW - the current lodge wasn't there when I started
Moraine Lake
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
So what gives?
So the question is why the markets dropped today
Maybe because, during Congressional Testimony, investors started to note that the new Treasury Secretary
Really is an Elf?
Like Orlando Bloom from "The Ring"
Check the ears !
Maybe because, during Congressional Testimony, investors started to note that the new Treasury Secretary
Really is an Elf?
Like Orlando Bloom from "The Ring"
Check the ears !
Congnative Dissonance... cont
The next Presidential trip - to Fort Myers - near Leigh Acres ...
Rather than a more typical Middle American region, let's pick an area that exemplifies the "irrational exuberance" of sunbelt real estate.
Just what needs to be saved...
In Florida, Despair and Foreclosures - NYTimes.com:
"By 2000, the lots had been sold, but most stayed empty. Only about 30,000 people were living in an area roughly four times the size of Manhattan. The builders really started to arrive in 2004, setting up model homes on Lee Boulevard next to Mr. Elliott’s office with the faded wooden sign that said “$50 lots.”
Bill Spikowski, a city planning consultant in Fort Myers, said that because Lehigh Acres had so many parcels and few restrictions on what could be built, smaller companies battled for customers. From 2004 to the end of 2006, developers completed 13,183 units in Lehigh Acres — nearly doubling the total stock of 15,216 that existed in 2000, according to Lee County figures."
Rather than a more typical Middle American region, let's pick an area that exemplifies the "irrational exuberance" of sunbelt real estate.
Just what needs to be saved...
In Florida, Despair and Foreclosures - NYTimes.com:
"By 2000, the lots had been sold, but most stayed empty. Only about 30,000 people were living in an area roughly four times the size of Manhattan. The builders really started to arrive in 2004, setting up model homes on Lee Boulevard next to Mr. Elliott’s office with the faded wooden sign that said “$50 lots.”
Bill Spikowski, a city planning consultant in Fort Myers, said that because Lehigh Acres had so many parcels and few restrictions on what could be built, smaller companies battled for customers. From 2004 to the end of 2006, developers completed 13,183 units in Lehigh Acres — nearly doubling the total stock of 15,216 that existed in 2000, according to Lee County figures."
The more things change, the more they don't
Excellent analysis - Geopolitics rule administrations not the other way around.
Very little change in substance in Foreign Policy.
Changes in rhetoric do not equal change in policy.
Suggest reading the whole thing
Munich and the Continuity Between the Bush and Obama Foreign Policies | Stratfor:
"While the Munich Security Conference brought together senior leaders from most major countries and many minor ones last weekend, none was more significant than U.S. Vice President Joe Biden. This is because Biden provided the first glimpse of U.S. foreign policy under President Barack Obama. Most conference attendees were looking forward to a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration. What was interesting about Biden’s speech was how little change there has been in the U.S. position and how much the attendees and the media were cheered by it."
Very little change in substance in Foreign Policy.
Changes in rhetoric do not equal change in policy.
Suggest reading the whole thing
Munich and the Continuity Between the Bush and Obama Foreign Policies | Stratfor:
"While the Munich Security Conference brought together senior leaders from most major countries and many minor ones last weekend, none was more significant than U.S. Vice President Joe Biden. This is because Biden provided the first glimpse of U.S. foreign policy under President Barack Obama. Most conference attendees were looking forward to a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration. What was interesting about Biden’s speech was how little change there has been in the U.S. position and how much the attendees and the media were cheered by it."
Now that the Election is over
But but but ... I thought all of this would change
On State Secrets, Obama Is Sounding Like Bush - NYTimes.com:
"In a closely watched case involving rendition and torture, a lawyer for the Obama administration seemed to surprise a panel of federal appeals judges on Monday by pressing ahead with an argument for preserving state secrets originally developed by the Bush administration."
On State Secrets, Obama Is Sounding Like Bush - NYTimes.com:
"In a closely watched case involving rendition and torture, a lawyer for the Obama administration seemed to surprise a panel of federal appeals judges on Monday by pressing ahead with an argument for preserving state secrets originally developed by the Bush administration."
Congnative Dissonance
Let's see - go to a depressed area to highlight the desperate straights of the economy and high unemployment.
But let's consider what the main business of Elkhart is - Gas Guzzling RV's. How green is that?
We're going to put you out of work, but it's too bad about unemployment ...
Al Gore on line one...
Obama visits job-starved Elkhart, Indiana - USATODAY.com:
"Layoffs are happening across the USA — but nowhere as fast as in this once-thriving area that used to be known as the 'RV Capital of the World.' One year ago unemployment in Elkhart County was at 4.7 . Today it s the highest in the nation at 15.3 fueled largely by the rapid decline in the recreational vehicle business.
On Monday President Obama traveled to this depressed northern Indiana city to highlight what s at stake as his $800-billion-plus economic stimulus bill is debated in Congress. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Obama wanted to go where the nation s economic problems are 'acute' as part of his 'his effort to convince Congress to move swiftly.'"
But let's consider what the main business of Elkhart is - Gas Guzzling RV's. How green is that?
We're going to put you out of work, but it's too bad about unemployment ...
Al Gore on line one...
Obama visits job-starved Elkhart, Indiana - USATODAY.com:
"Layoffs are happening across the USA — but nowhere as fast as in this once-thriving area that used to be known as the 'RV Capital of the World.' One year ago unemployment in Elkhart County was at 4.7 . Today it s the highest in the nation at 15.3 fueled largely by the rapid decline in the recreational vehicle business.
On Monday President Obama traveled to this depressed northern Indiana city to highlight what s at stake as his $800-billion-plus economic stimulus bill is debated in Congress. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Obama wanted to go where the nation s economic problems are 'acute' as part of his 'his effort to convince Congress to move swiftly.'"
Sunday, February 08, 2009
exceptional point
All men dream, but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that it was vanity; but the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act their dream with open eyes, to make it possible.
Amen
Op-Ed Columnist, Maureen Dowd - Potomac’s Postpartisan Depression - NYTimes.com:
"Obama should have written up a kosher (as in pork-free) bill that Americans could trust — and Republicans couldn’t as easily mock — and jammed it through."
"Obama should have written up a kosher (as in pork-free) bill that Americans could trust — and Republicans couldn’t as easily mock — and jammed it through."
Tried to watch it
Fell asleep
Not a great promo for the season
NASCAR.COM : news:
Weebles wobble ... Hey we used that for our Motorcycle racing team slogan ... because they wobble, but don't fall down.
"After a record number of cautions in Saturday night's Budweiser Shootout, some drivers voiced concerns about the handling of the new car and are nervous about what could lie ahead in next week's 200-lap Daytona 500."
Not a great promo for the season
NASCAR.COM : news:
Weebles wobble ... Hey we used that for our Motorcycle racing team slogan ... because they wobble, but don't fall down.
"After a record number of cautions in Saturday night's Budweiser Shootout, some drivers voiced concerns about the handling of the new car and are nervous about what could lie ahead in next week's 200-lap Daytona 500."
Saturday, February 07, 2009
Starting to understand
At least the "Twit" part
Time for IQ checks on congress
CQ Politics | Congressman Twitters an Iraq Security Breach
"A congressional trip to Iraq this weekend was supposed to be a secret.
Time for IQ checks on congress
CQ Politics | Congressman Twitters an Iraq Security Breach
"A congressional trip to Iraq this weekend was supposed to be a secret.
But the cat’s out of the bag now, thanks to a member of the House Intelligence Committee who broke an embargo via Twitter.
A delegation led by House Minority Leader John A. Boehner , R-Ohio, arrived in Iraq earlier today, and because of Rep. Peter Hoekstra , R-Mich., the entire world — or at least Twitter.com readers—now know they’re there.
“Just landed in Baghdad,” messaged Hoekstra, a former chairman of the Intelligence panel and now the ranking member, who is routinely entrusted to keep some of the nation’s most closely guarded secrets."
Locals make good - WSJ
Likely we won't do the sleepover, it's only 30-40 min from home, but big thumbs up to Don and the crew!
Winter Wine Sleepovers - WSJ.com:
"Waffles and Wine"
Suttons Bay, Mich.
Chat up the winemaker or hole up next to the fire at Black Star Farms. Sample all of the wines in the tasting room and talk with the innkeeper at hospitality hour. Guests get a complimentary bottle of wine and a full breakfast. (The specialty is a savory root-vegetable waffle topped with shaved ham, a poached egg and hollandaise sauce.) Ask about snowshoe Saturdays and sleigh rides during the Taste the Passion weekend festival on Feb.7-8; blackstarfarms.com.
WHEN: January through March
WHERE: 10844 E. Revold Rd., Suttons Bay, Mich.
HOW MUCH: Stay one night Sunday-Thursday and your second night is 50% off; through April, a last-minute midweek special gives you a second night free."
Winter Wine Sleepovers - WSJ.com:
"Waffles and Wine"
Suttons Bay, Mich.
Chat up the winemaker or hole up next to the fire at Black Star Farms. Sample all of the wines in the tasting room and talk with the innkeeper at hospitality hour. Guests get a complimentary bottle of wine and a full breakfast. (The specialty is a savory root-vegetable waffle topped with shaved ham, a poached egg and hollandaise sauce.) Ask about snowshoe Saturdays and sleigh rides during the Taste the Passion weekend festival on Feb.7-8; blackstarfarms.com.
WHEN: January through March
WHERE: 10844 E. Revold Rd., Suttons Bay, Mich.
HOW MUCH: Stay one night Sunday-Thursday and your second night is 50% off; through April, a last-minute midweek special gives you a second night free."
Yet more reflections on a "bad week"
There was plenty of hope for change with the new Administration, but was that hope misplaced?
Who needs Rush when simple missteps do damage?
More nominations come to grief | Another two bite the dust | The Economist:
"Throughout two years of high-flown speechifying he promised to clean the Augean stables of Washington, close the revolving door between power and money and raise ethical standards. In his inaugural address, he announced the dawn of a new “era of responsibility”; on his first day in office he unveiled a package of tight ethical guidelines, though they didn’t last long.
The failure of no fewer than three nominees for high office to pay all their taxes has scrambled this message. Aren’t liberals supposed to believe that government is a good thing? And aren’t people who are being considered to run big departments supposed to be able to run their own financial affairs? (Mr Geithner, who had such trouble understanding the tax code, is now the man in charge of the Internal Revenue Service.) During the presidential campaign, Joe Biden declared that richer Americans had a patriotic duty to pay higher taxes; back in 1998 Mr Daschle opined that “tax cheaters cheat us all, and the IRS should enforce our laws to the letter.” Now Democratic insiders were giving the impression that they think that taxes are just for the little people."
And Nancy isn't happy about cuts to a 900 BILLION package
Pelosi Calls Cuts to Stimulus Bill ‘Very Damaging’ - The Caucus Blog - NYTimes.com:
And Gail opines:
Op-Ed Columnist - Tough Times at Obama Inc. - NYTimes.com:
"How could so many cabinet nominees get into trouble? The Obama transition team was supposed to be so organized! Did their seven-page questionnaire ask about Facebook pages but not tax liens?"
And from Peggy Noonan (speach writer for Regan)
Peggy Noonan Sees America Preparing for the Worst, and Republicans Suddenly Seem Serious - WSJ.com:
"Mr. Obama has a talent for reviving his enemies. He did it with Hillary Clinton, who almost beat him after his early wins, and who was given the State Department. He has now done it with Republicans on the Hill. This is very nice of him, but not in his interests. Mr. Obama should have written the stimulus bill side by side with Republicans, picked them off, co-opted their views. Did he not understand their weakness? They had no real position from which to oppose high and wasteful spending, having backed eight years of it with nary a peep.They started the struggle over the stimulus bill at a real disadvantage. Then four things: Nancy Pelosi served up old-style pork, Mr. Obama swallowed it, Republicans shocked themselves by being serious, and then they startled themselves by being unified. But it was their seriousness that was most important: They didn't know they were! They hadn't been in years!
One senses in a new way the disaster that is Nancy Pelosi. She was all right as leader of the opposition in the Bush era, opposition being joyful and she being by nature chipper. She is tough, experienced, and of course only two years ago she was a breakthrough figure, the first female speaker. But her public comments are often quite mad—we're losing 500 million jobs a month; here's some fresh insight on Catholic doctrine—and in a crisis demanding of creativity, depth and the long view, she seems more than ever a mere ward heeler, a hack, a pol. She's not big enough for the age, is she? She's not up to it."
Who needs Rush when simple missteps do damage?
More nominations come to grief | Another two bite the dust | The Economist:
"Throughout two years of high-flown speechifying he promised to clean the Augean stables of Washington, close the revolving door between power and money and raise ethical standards. In his inaugural address, he announced the dawn of a new “era of responsibility”; on his first day in office he unveiled a package of tight ethical guidelines, though they didn’t last long.
The failure of no fewer than three nominees for high office to pay all their taxes has scrambled this message. Aren’t liberals supposed to believe that government is a good thing? And aren’t people who are being considered to run big departments supposed to be able to run their own financial affairs? (Mr Geithner, who had such trouble understanding the tax code, is now the man in charge of the Internal Revenue Service.) During the presidential campaign, Joe Biden declared that richer Americans had a patriotic duty to pay higher taxes; back in 1998 Mr Daschle opined that “tax cheaters cheat us all, and the IRS should enforce our laws to the letter.” Now Democratic insiders were giving the impression that they think that taxes are just for the little people."
And Nancy isn't happy about cuts to a 900 BILLION package
Pelosi Calls Cuts to Stimulus Bill ‘Very Damaging’ - The Caucus Blog - NYTimes.com:
And Gail opines:
Op-Ed Columnist - Tough Times at Obama Inc. - NYTimes.com:
"How could so many cabinet nominees get into trouble? The Obama transition team was supposed to be so organized! Did their seven-page questionnaire ask about Facebook pages but not tax liens?"
And from Peggy Noonan (speach writer for Regan)
Peggy Noonan Sees America Preparing for the Worst, and Republicans Suddenly Seem Serious - WSJ.com:
"Mr. Obama has a talent for reviving his enemies. He did it with Hillary Clinton, who almost beat him after his early wins, and who was given the State Department. He has now done it with Republicans on the Hill. This is very nice of him, but not in his interests. Mr. Obama should have written the stimulus bill side by side with Republicans, picked them off, co-opted their views. Did he not understand their weakness? They had no real position from which to oppose high and wasteful spending, having backed eight years of it with nary a peep.They started the struggle over the stimulus bill at a real disadvantage. Then four things: Nancy Pelosi served up old-style pork, Mr. Obama swallowed it, Republicans shocked themselves by being serious, and then they startled themselves by being unified. But it was their seriousness that was most important: They didn't know they were! They hadn't been in years!
One senses in a new way the disaster that is Nancy Pelosi. She was all right as leader of the opposition in the Bush era, opposition being joyful and she being by nature chipper. She is tough, experienced, and of course only two years ago she was a breakthrough figure, the first female speaker. But her public comments are often quite mad—we're losing 500 million jobs a month; here's some fresh insight on Catholic doctrine—and in a crisis demanding of creativity, depth and the long view, she seems more than ever a mere ward heeler, a hack, a pol. She's not big enough for the age, is she? She's not up to it."
Same ol' same ol' ?
Dowd disses the new Administration
The tax evasion issue does stick in my craw
The whole "this time it's different" spiel
Is it?
From a couple of days ago:
Op-Ed Columnist - Well, That Certainly Didn’t Take Long -
"Mr. Obama admitted that “ultimately it’s important for this administration to send a message that there aren’t two sets of rules. You know, one for prominent people and one for ordinary folks who have to pay their taxes.”
It took Daschle’s resignation to shake the president out of his arrogant attitude that his charmed circle doesn’t have to abide by the lofty standards he lectured the rest of us about for two years.
Before he recanted, his hand forced by a cascade of appointees who “forgot” to pay taxes, his reasoning was creeping perilously close to that of the outgoing leaders he denounced in his Inaugural Address: that elitist mentality of “we know best,” we know we’re doing the “right” thing for the country, so we can twist the rules."
The tax evasion issue does stick in my craw
The whole "this time it's different" spiel
Is it?
From a couple of days ago:
Op-Ed Columnist - Well, That Certainly Didn’t Take Long -
"Mr. Obama admitted that “ultimately it’s important for this administration to send a message that there aren’t two sets of rules. You know, one for prominent people and one for ordinary folks who have to pay their taxes.”
It took Daschle’s resignation to shake the president out of his arrogant attitude that his charmed circle doesn’t have to abide by the lofty standards he lectured the rest of us about for two years.
Before he recanted, his hand forced by a cascade of appointees who “forgot” to pay taxes, his reasoning was creeping perilously close to that of the outgoing leaders he denounced in his Inaugural Address: that elitist mentality of “we know best,” we know we’re doing the “right” thing for the country, so we can twist the rules."
Friday, February 06, 2009
Getting further behind the curve
I've barely moved to Facebook (aka more fun than TV in the dead of winter, will you love me in September)
Now Twittering the State of the State...
Poynter Online - E-Media Tidbits:
"I even noticed tweets in this stream from a few journalists. One of them told me the experience definitely strengthened his reporting giving him a feel for how people were reacting to a very critical speech to a very economically depressed state 'It was a lot more fun than just watching it on TV and the interaction with friends and colleagues made it even better. But I think journalists basically fear oppose denigrate or can t understand the value of social networking like Twitter. It s a shame.' But he gave a nod to our tech-savvy governor: 'You have to hand it to Granholm for having an active tweet.' ...I m still wondering if this is journalism or simply very cool civic engagement. I certainly can t figure out how to monetize such an experience."
Now Twittering the State of the State...
Poynter Online - E-Media Tidbits:
"I even noticed tweets in this stream from a few journalists. One of them told me the experience definitely strengthened his reporting giving him a feel for how people were reacting to a very critical speech to a very economically depressed state 'It was a lot more fun than just watching it on TV and the interaction with friends and colleagues made it even better. But I think journalists basically fear oppose denigrate or can t understand the value of social networking like Twitter. It s a shame.' But he gave a nod to our tech-savvy governor: 'You have to hand it to Granholm for having an active tweet.' ...I m still wondering if this is journalism or simply very cool civic engagement. I certainly can t figure out how to monetize such an experience."
Thursday, February 05, 2009
Connections
Getting old and slow in my thinking
This:
The Bacon Explosion - Take Bacon. Add Sausage.
Is really all about Congress and the "Pork Project"
Sorry to say, but it's all about "bringing home the bacon"
This:
The Bacon Explosion - Take Bacon. Add Sausage.
Is really all about Congress and the "Pork Project"
Sorry to say, but it's all about "bringing home the bacon"
Banking should be boring
"Normal" bankers often weren't the best and brightest.
In short, "real" banking is a low margin business.
The trouble is that some turned it into a "glamor" business
How Banking Diversification Steered Us Wrong - BusinessWeek:
"The mess we're in started with financial theories that substituted banking innovation for due diligence and sensible regulation"
In short, "real" banking is a low margin business.
The trouble is that some turned it into a "glamor" business
How Banking Diversification Steered Us Wrong - BusinessWeek:
"The mess we're in started with financial theories that substituted banking innovation for due diligence and sensible regulation"
Traverse Bay Ice
Commentary on the Bay freezing
Traverse Bay - Traverse City
I think it is official now, but still checking
Traverse Bay - Traverse City
I think it is official now, but still checking
Unsure of the concept
Maybe for large urban areas with many neighborhoods, micro markets.
Maybe there are models for cross linkage market to market.
Not sure it works for small communities or rural.
The urban model works if you can spread the overhead cost of print and distribution.
Free Newspaper Venture Depends on Local Blogs - NYTimes.com:
"The Printed Blog, a Chicago start-up, plans to reprint blog posts on regular paper, surrounded by local ads, and distribute the publications free in big cities."
Maybe there are models for cross linkage market to market.
Not sure it works for small communities or rural.
The urban model works if you can spread the overhead cost of print and distribution.
Free Newspaper Venture Depends on Local Blogs - NYTimes.com:
"The Printed Blog, a Chicago start-up, plans to reprint blog posts on regular paper, surrounded by local ads, and distribute the publications free in big cities."
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
The more things change, the more they don't
I hate to see nit's being picked, but if we are to have true change, let's not excuse past behavior.
Obama’s Ethics Reform Pledge Faces an Early Test - NYTimes.com:
"Katrina vanden Heuvel, editor of The Nation, a liberal magazine, said Mr. Obama should withdraw Mr. Daschle’s nomination to “revive the change brand he campaigned and won on.”
Mr. Obama is running into crosscurrents that bedeviled his predecessors. Jimmy Carter promised a new day in Washington after Watergate but still found top associates caught up in scandal. Bill Clinton promised “the most ethical administration in history” and then endured the most independent counsel investigations in history. Mr. Bush vowed a new era of responsibility only to be accused of selling out to energy and military industries."
Obama’s Ethics Reform Pledge Faces an Early Test - NYTimes.com:
"Katrina vanden Heuvel, editor of The Nation, a liberal magazine, said Mr. Obama should withdraw Mr. Daschle’s nomination to “revive the change brand he campaigned and won on.”
Mr. Obama is running into crosscurrents that bedeviled his predecessors. Jimmy Carter promised a new day in Washington after Watergate but still found top associates caught up in scandal. Bill Clinton promised “the most ethical administration in history” and then endured the most independent counsel investigations in history. Mr. Bush vowed a new era of responsibility only to be accused of selling out to energy and military industries."
Monday, February 02, 2009
Volcano watch
If this one goes, Punxsutawney Phil will be proven right, in spades.
Alaska Volcano Observatory - Redoubt - Activity Page
Big volcano will throw ash and vapor far into the atmosphere
Midwest and NorthEast are "downwind" and will get more cold weather, maybe a lot more.
Near term good little tool for earthquake tracking
Recent Earthquakes
Alaska Volcano Observatory - Redoubt - Activity Page
Big volcano will throw ash and vapor far into the atmosphere
Midwest and NorthEast are "downwind" and will get more cold weather, maybe a lot more.
Near term good little tool for earthquake tracking
Recent Earthquakes
Sunday, February 01, 2009
Boo Hoo ... Not
Sorry, but I can't really feel all that sorry.
Fisher Island - Still a Refuge, but Not From the Downturn - NYTimes.com:
"But even here, a haven for wealthy families since the late 1980s, the economic storms are bearing down. About a quarter of the island’s 695 condos are up for sale, roughly double the number on the market in recent years, and few are finding buyers. Sellers are cutting prices, brokers say, and one unit is in foreclosure, a surprise to some residents of a place where home prices range from $335,000 to $30 million."
Fisher Island - Still a Refuge, but Not From the Downturn - NYTimes.com:
"But even here, a haven for wealthy families since the late 1980s, the economic storms are bearing down. About a quarter of the island’s 695 condos are up for sale, roughly double the number on the market in recent years, and few are finding buyers. Sellers are cutting prices, brokers say, and one unit is in foreclosure, a surprise to some residents of a place where home prices range from $335,000 to $30 million."
For Tom Daschel
Daschle Knew of Tax Issues Over Car Use Last June
And so it begins
"As Senate Democrats rushed to save the nomination of Mr. Daschle, their former leader, the White House spent the day trying to explain how he survived its vetting process despite his failure to pay $128,000 in taxes.
“It’s totally shocking,” an aide to a Democratic senator said Saturday. “Why do we have to continue to have the same story over and over again with these nominees?”
and
Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia, the party whip, had this to say after hearing the news about Mr. Daschle: “It is easy for the other side to advocate for higher taxes because — you know what? — they don’t pay them.”"
And so it begins
"As Senate Democrats rushed to save the nomination of Mr. Daschle, their former leader, the White House spent the day trying to explain how he survived its vetting process despite his failure to pay $128,000 in taxes.
“It’s totally shocking,” an aide to a Democratic senator said Saturday. “Why do we have to continue to have the same story over and over again with these nominees?”
and
Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia, the party whip, had this to say after hearing the news about Mr. Daschle: “It is easy for the other side to advocate for higher taxes because — you know what? — they don’t pay them.”"
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Potential weather changer
Alaska Volcano Observatory - Redoubt - Activity Page
This volcano, if it erupts big, could influence weather from the upper Midwest to the North East.
Alaska and Russian (Kamkatcha) volcano's may have helped drive near record cold winter in the upper Midwest this season.
Will we have "year without summer" ???
Combined with ongoing dearth of sunspots
'scuse me, Al Gore on line 2
This volcano, if it erupts big, could influence weather from the upper Midwest to the North East.
Alaska and Russian (Kamkatcha) volcano's may have helped drive near record cold winter in the upper Midwest this season.
Will we have "year without summer" ???
Combined with ongoing dearth of sunspots
'scuse me, Al Gore on line 2
Cats
Yes, there are cougars in Michigan, witnesses tell panel | Freep.com
The long-running campaign to force the Department of Natural Resources to recognize the wild cougar population in Michigan arrived at the state Legislature Thursday morning, as a Senate committee took testimony from a dozen eyewitnesses and experts who claimed evidence of the animals’ presence is indisputable.
Cougars have been seen by hundreds of people in Michigan over the last 25 years, filmed and photographed, their tracks and droppings confirmed by scientists and attacks on livestock documented, the witnesses said.
Michigan has "a bonafide resident ... self-sustaining cougar population," said Pat Rusz, research biologist with the Michigan Wildlife Conservancy.
But the DNR refuses to acknowledge their presence, and discredits and ridicules assertions to the contrary, he said.
Apparently the DNR says they come from the Dakota's
Guess they are just "passing through"
The long-running campaign to force the Department of Natural Resources to recognize the wild cougar population in Michigan arrived at the state Legislature Thursday morning, as a Senate committee took testimony from a dozen eyewitnesses and experts who claimed evidence of the animals’ presence is indisputable.
Cougars have been seen by hundreds of people in Michigan over the last 25 years, filmed and photographed, their tracks and droppings confirmed by scientists and attacks on livestock documented, the witnesses said.
Michigan has "a bonafide resident ... self-sustaining cougar population," said Pat Rusz, research biologist with the Michigan Wildlife Conservancy.
But the DNR refuses to acknowledge their presence, and discredits and ridicules assertions to the contrary, he said.
Apparently the DNR says they come from the Dakota's
Guess they are just "passing through"
Sunday, January 25, 2009
I'll drink to that ... too
I guess I'll "pass" on a comment
Drunk as a Skunk … or a Wild Monkey … or a Pig - Proof Blog - NYTimes.com:
"A large variety of creatures consume alcohol in the wild, ranging from bumble-bees to elephants. Hooch finds its way into their diets via the fermenting fruit, sap and nectar of various plants, and many exhibit signs of inebriation after they’ve enjoyed a good feed. Their weakness for the substance au naturel is understandable: ethanol is a rich food, with 75 percent more calories than refined sugar, and its distinctive aroma makes it easy to locate."
Drunk as a Skunk … or a Wild Monkey … or a Pig - Proof Blog - NYTimes.com:
"A large variety of creatures consume alcohol in the wild, ranging from bumble-bees to elephants. Hooch finds its way into their diets via the fermenting fruit, sap and nectar of various plants, and many exhibit signs of inebriation after they’ve enjoyed a good feed. Their weakness for the substance au naturel is understandable: ethanol is a rich food, with 75 percent more calories than refined sugar, and its distinctive aroma makes it easy to locate."
I'll drink to that
And all along I thought it was good to keep awake.
(as well as having lots of anti-oxidants)
Coffee Linked to Lower Dementia Risk - NYTimes.com:
"Drinking coffee may do more than just keep you awake. A new study suggests an intriguing potential link to mental health later in life, as well."
(as well as having lots of anti-oxidants)
Coffee Linked to Lower Dementia Risk - NYTimes.com:
"Drinking coffee may do more than just keep you awake. A new study suggests an intriguing potential link to mental health later in life, as well."
Half Dozen Blunders
I can buy into this list, esp. things like leverage.
Trouble was that Banking was/is, at it's core, a low margin business.
Bankers wanted it to be a sexy, high margin business.
For a while, something like 40% of corporate earnings came from finance.
Leverage = Risk.
Economic View - Six Errors on the Path to the Financial Crisis - NYTimes.com
"The second error came in 2004, when the S.E.C. let securities firms raise their leverage sharply. Before then, leverage of 12 to 1 was typical; afterward, it shot up to more like 33 to 1. What were the S.E.C. and the heads of the firms thinking? Remember, under 33-to-1 leverage, a mere 3 percent decline in asset values wipes out a company. Had leverage stayed at 12 to 1, these firms wouldn’t have grown as big or been as fragile."
Trouble was that Banking was/is, at it's core, a low margin business.
Bankers wanted it to be a sexy, high margin business.
For a while, something like 40% of corporate earnings came from finance.
Leverage = Risk.
Economic View - Six Errors on the Path to the Financial Crisis - NYTimes.com
"The second error came in 2004, when the S.E.C. let securities firms raise their leverage sharply. Before then, leverage of 12 to 1 was typical; afterward, it shot up to more like 33 to 1. What were the S.E.C. and the heads of the firms thinking? Remember, under 33-to-1 leverage, a mere 3 percent decline in asset values wipes out a company. Had leverage stayed at 12 to 1, these firms wouldn’t have grown as big or been as fragile."
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Scams
Forbes magazine ...
Five Legal Scams
Five Legal Scams
How is it that many Wall Streeters are prosperous at a time when 401(k)s are decimated? Some insiders are, to be sure, losing bonus pay or even looking at a pink slip. But the money management crowd is still doing pretty well for itself, extracting at least $300 billion a year for carving up our meager economic pie.
The Wall Street bag contains, as I count them, five tricks. If you understand them well, you will hesitate before engaging the next high-priced investment genius to pick stocks for you. You might even take the advice we have often offered, that you put a large chunk of your retirement money in low-cost index funds.
Longtime readers of FORBES will see some familiar themes here; a few of the games have been played for decades. I am inspired to revisit the topic after spending some time with Nassim Taleb, the financier-philosopher profiled by Robert Langreth. More than anyone else I have met, Taleb understands the portfolio tricks that turn dumb luck into something that looks like skill.
Taleb does not entirely agree with my taxonomy. Where I see five kinds of mischief, this holistic thinker sees only two: asymmetry and risk hiding. But you need to read Taleb's last two books (Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan) to understand those concepts. With that caveat, here are the five ways that money managers enrich themselves.
Russian roulette. Say a strategy yields above-average returns for nine years and a catastrophic loss in the tenth. This is a formula for wealth--if you are playing with other people's money. Collect a handsome fee during the good years and then shrug off the tenth.
You could get this profile of wins and losses by insuring levees in New Orleans. On Wall Street you get it selling naked put options, buying junk bonds or operating Long-Term Capital Management. In all these cases, the money manager succeeds by sweeping risk under the rug. Taleb's preferred name for this game is the Rubin Play, in honor of a well-compensated executive at a bank that needed to be bailed out.
Monkeys at the keyboard. Hand out 100 trading terminals and after a time the operator of one will emerge as an apparent genius. Collect a fee on the monkey feeder fund.
Streaking. Almost any investing style--small stocks, emerging markets, momentum--will have a winning streak, lasting 5 to 12 years. At an opportune moment, compare your results with the overall market's.
Oh Deer
More filler
But I'd intended to post this anyway
Family that comes buy at least a couple of times a day
Back when Shirley was feeding them, we'd get a dozen or more at a time
But I'd intended to post this anyway
Family that comes buy at least a couple of times a day
Back when Shirley was feeding them, we'd get a dozen or more at a time
Lots of good viewing/listening
TED conference videos
TED | Talk | Tag | Food
Many many other topics
So far, everyone I've seen has been "worth watching"
TED | Talk | Tag | Food
Many many other topics
So far, everyone I've seen has been "worth watching"
Photos
Posting some photos from a snowshoe hike a couple of weeks ago, mostly to help scroll down the Wyeth images - rather than fiddling to re-size them.
These were taken around North Bar Lake, Sleeping Bear National Lakeshore, north of Empire.
These were taken around North Bar Lake, Sleeping Bear National Lakeshore, north of Empire.
Passing
Portrait of his father by Jamie Wyeth
Shirley posted nice tribute here
I have always been fond of Andrew's work, in part because he had done so much with browns, greys and the colors of winter.
Such as : Snow Hill, started in his 70'th year
Chadds Ford Gallery:
“This is not just a pleasant picture,” says Andrew Wyeth. “It’s a culmination. These are all people I’ve painted in the past”. His models - neighbors all - dance around a winter maypole in gleeful anticipation of Andrew Wyeth’s death. “When I worked, I raised hell with them mentally and emotionally,” he says. “They wish I were dead, so they wouldn’t have to pose anymore.” The models Karl and Anna Kuerner, Helga Testorf, Bill Loper, Allan Lynch and Adam Johnson are dancing on top of the Kuerners’ hill in view of all the locations where they lived and were painted by Andrew Wyeth. The empty streamer represents the artist who once said, “I wish I could be invisible when I’m painting.”"
Along with Russel Chatham, Andrew's work has influenced my eye, sometimes my photography
Friday, January 23, 2009
And so it begins
Obama signs document to close Guatanamo yesterday
Now the NYTimes raises questions.
Not like the Times is a Republican mouthpiece.
Freed by U.S., Saudi Becomes a Qaeda Chief - NYTimes.com:
"A Yemeni journalist who interviewed Al Qaeda’s leaders in Yemen last year, Abdulela Shaya, confirmed Thursday that the deputy leader was indeed Mr. Shihri, the former Guantanamo detainee. Mr. Shaya, in a phone interview, said Mr. Shihri had described to him his journey from Cuba to Yemen and supplied his Guant�namo detention number, 372. That is the correct number, Pentagon documents show.
“It seems certain from all the sources we have that this is the same individual who was released from Guantanamo in 2007,” said Gregory Johnsen, a terrorism analyst and the editor of a forthcoming book, “Islam and Insurgency in Yemen.”"
Now the NYTimes raises questions.
Not like the Times is a Republican mouthpiece.
Freed by U.S., Saudi Becomes a Qaeda Chief - NYTimes.com:
"A Yemeni journalist who interviewed Al Qaeda’s leaders in Yemen last year, Abdulela Shaya, confirmed Thursday that the deputy leader was indeed Mr. Shihri, the former Guantanamo detainee. Mr. Shaya, in a phone interview, said Mr. Shihri had described to him his journey from Cuba to Yemen and supplied his Guant�namo detention number, 372. That is the correct number, Pentagon documents show.
“It seems certain from all the sources we have that this is the same individual who was released from Guantanamo in 2007,” said Gregory Johnsen, a terrorism analyst and the editor of a forthcoming book, “Islam and Insurgency in Yemen.”"
Thursday, January 22, 2009
OK, How Bad is it
According to the politicians and the media, we are entering the worst economic times since the Great Depression
Well, maybe, maybe not.
Maybe things have been too good for too long for anyone to remember.
Or maybe, just maybe there is a method to the madness, a bit of politics at play?
We just finished a political year when there was no candidate with a vested interest in the upside, all was on the downside.
I will grant that there was much wrong, and much wrong-doing, rampant greed on Wall St.
But will the turn, when it comes be all the new administrations doing?
Time will tell
Economic Scene - The Economy Is Bad, but 1982 Was Worse -
"You often hear that we are now living through the worst recession since the early 1980s, and the comparison is not wrong. But it’s ultimately unsatisfying, because it is a little too vague to be useful."
Well, maybe, maybe not.
Maybe things have been too good for too long for anyone to remember.
Or maybe, just maybe there is a method to the madness, a bit of politics at play?
We just finished a political year when there was no candidate with a vested interest in the upside, all was on the downside.
I will grant that there was much wrong, and much wrong-doing, rampant greed on Wall St.
But will the turn, when it comes be all the new administrations doing?
Time will tell
Economic Scene - The Economy Is Bad, but 1982 Was Worse -
"You often hear that we are now living through the worst recession since the early 1980s, and the comparison is not wrong. But it’s ultimately unsatisfying, because it is a little too vague to be useful."
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
New mantra
Due to a "Facebook" exchange, I've decided that (fitting my devout and practicing non partisan politics) ... I'm a Revel without a Cause
Party time for most any good reason
Oh yeah - deep winter here, may color my attitude
Party time for most any good reason
Oh yeah - deep winter here, may color my attitude
Winter Weather
Listening to local TV Weather while working on other tasks
Data point: within 24 hrs, nearby area (around Belair Mich.) had nearly 50 degree temperature swing : from over 20 below to mid 20's above.
Data point: within 24 hrs, nearby area (around Belair Mich.) had nearly 50 degree temperature swing : from over 20 below to mid 20's above.
Monday, January 19, 2009
I guess it was bound to happen
Maybe it was too good to be true.
Sad to say, but
2009 Legend of the Motorcycle postponed
Hope it comes back next year
But this maybe makes some other travel plans easier...
Sad to say, but
2009 Legend of the Motorcycle postponed
Hope it comes back next year
But this maybe makes some other travel plans easier...
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Insightful
Getting caught up from a rather full week.
Starting to go over my notes, and refreshed myself by visiting Baker's Blog : Bakers Green Acres
Mark and Jill (and family) supply protein for Cherry Capital Foods (mostly poultry).
We visited on the way back from Lansing last Tues
Despite near blizzard conditions (mostly the wind) we had good talk about business, and delicious lunch of home-made chicken soup (of course) with chicken and goat "hot-dogs" muffins and cider... yum.
Thanks Jill!
Starting to go over my notes, and refreshed myself by visiting Baker's Blog : Bakers Green Acres
Mark and Jill (and family) supply protein for Cherry Capital Foods (mostly poultry).
We visited on the way back from Lansing last Tues
Despite near blizzard conditions (mostly the wind) we had good talk about business, and delicious lunch of home-made chicken soup (of course) with chicken and goat "hot-dogs" muffins and cider... yum.
Thanks Jill!
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Eternal truth
Movie P.S I love you
Harry Connick to Hillary Swank (approx quote)
"Us guys are so clueless, we don't know if you want us to come on strong or not, to make the first move or not, to be on top or bottom"
Hillary whispers in his ear "I'll tell you the secret ...we have no clue what we want ..."
Harry Connick to Hillary Swank (approx quote)
"Us guys are so clueless, we don't know if you want us to come on strong or not, to make the first move or not, to be on top or bottom"
Hillary whispers in his ear "I'll tell you the secret ...we have no clue what we want ..."
New Blog to follow
If Doc likes it, it's almost dead certain to be good.
Framing - right on.
Erik Cecil’s Blog:
"New Framing. Doc Searls is one of the smartest lawyers I’ve ever known. It’s probably because he’s not a lawyer that he’s such a damn good lawyer. He’s good because he Gets It. “It” are the details that matter. Truth is, very few details ever really matter; the rest is noise. Blogshpere and the Internet is, in many respects, detail replicating itself utterly out of control without much in the way of meaning, reflection, creativity, authenticity, humiliy or love. Yes. Love. It matters. Doc sees the things few others see; he sees what I only began to see after taking on the machine in 100 days of hearings across 30 or so states pitting the innovation engine (and sometime echo chamber) we call the Internet against “the way things have been.” He clued me in to the power of framing. I can tell you from a regulatory litigator’s perspective, having tested this for about a dozen years before the FCC, every single state public utility commission in the nation and in many federal courts, there are few things that I care about more than framing. Basically, if your framing is superior you win. Period. Great lawyers get this. And so does Doc Searls."
Framing - right on.
Erik Cecil’s Blog:
"New Framing. Doc Searls is one of the smartest lawyers I’ve ever known. It’s probably because he’s not a lawyer that he’s such a damn good lawyer. He’s good because he Gets It. “It” are the details that matter. Truth is, very few details ever really matter; the rest is noise. Blogshpere and the Internet is, in many respects, detail replicating itself utterly out of control without much in the way of meaning, reflection, creativity, authenticity, humiliy or love. Yes. Love. It matters. Doc sees the things few others see; he sees what I only began to see after taking on the machine in 100 days of hearings across 30 or so states pitting the innovation engine (and sometime echo chamber) we call the Internet against “the way things have been.” He clued me in to the power of framing. I can tell you from a regulatory litigator’s perspective, having tested this for about a dozen years before the FCC, every single state public utility commission in the nation and in many federal courts, there are few things that I care about more than framing. Basically, if your framing is superior you win. Period. Great lawyers get this. And so does Doc Searls."
Friday, January 16, 2009
Windshield time
A bit more of this stuff this week than I really need.
Tues with Marc and Steve through worse, to visit protein supplier for Cherry Capital Foods
Wed into TC for early meetings on CCF
Thurs for TBEDC board, then up to supplier by Charlovoix, back to Frankfort for Food program.
Did not pull camera out for some of the real white-outs
Tues with Marc and Steve through worse, to visit protein supplier for Cherry Capital Foods
Wed into TC for early meetings on CCF
Thurs for TBEDC board, then up to supplier by Charlovoix, back to Frankfort for Food program.
Did not pull camera out for some of the real white-outs
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Yum
Specials - Pangea's Pizza
Tokyo Shrimp Tempura
Tempura fried shrimp, carrots, mushrooms, green peppers, with an orange ginger glaze and wasabi mayo
Tokyo Shrimp Tempura
Tempura fried shrimp, carrots, mushrooms, green peppers, with an orange ginger glaze and wasabi mayo
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Build them, but will folks buy?
What if they don't ?
Will Detroit get blamed ?
Detroit Goes for Electric Cars, but Will Drivers? :
"These are risky bets. There are no guarantees that consumers — for all their stated concerns about global warming, dependence on foreign oil and unpredictable gas prices — will buy enough of them. They may balk, for example, at the limits on how far they can drive on a single charge."
Will Detroit get blamed ?
Detroit Goes for Electric Cars, but Will Drivers? :
"These are risky bets. There are no guarantees that consumers — for all their stated concerns about global warming, dependence on foreign oil and unpredictable gas prices — will buy enough of them. They may balk, for example, at the limits on how far they can drive on a single charge."
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Wait a min...
I thought the whole Wall St. Mess was all Bush's fault
Loosen regulation
Encourage a major institution to step up risky trading in mortgage-related instruments?
And by the way, take some $126 million in pay and bonus's
Rubin Leaving Citigroup:
"For Mr. Rubin, his resignation is a sobering turn in a sterling career in Washington and on Wall Street. Since joining Citigroup in 1999 as an adviser to the bank’s senior executives, Mr. Rubin, 70, who is an economic adviser on the transition team of President-elect Barack Obama, has sat atop a bank that has made one misstep after another.
When he was Treasury secretary during the Clinton administration, Mr. Rubin helped loosen Depression-era banking regulations that made the creation of Citigroup possible. During the same period, he helped beat back tighter oversight of exotic financial products, a development he had previously said he was helpless to prevent.
In his capacity as a senior adviser to Citigroup’s top executives and board, he pushed hard for the bank to step up its trading of risky mortgage-related securities and other complex investments as long as it improved oversight — a strategy critics say sowed the seeds of the bank’s current troubles. Mr. Rubin, whose contract specifically absolved him from daily operational responsibilities, has maintained that he could not have foreseen the current mess."
Loosen regulation
Encourage a major institution to step up risky trading in mortgage-related instruments?
And by the way, take some $126 million in pay and bonus's
Rubin Leaving Citigroup:
"For Mr. Rubin, his resignation is a sobering turn in a sterling career in Washington and on Wall Street. Since joining Citigroup in 1999 as an adviser to the bank’s senior executives, Mr. Rubin, 70, who is an economic adviser on the transition team of President-elect Barack Obama, has sat atop a bank that has made one misstep after another.
When he was Treasury secretary during the Clinton administration, Mr. Rubin helped loosen Depression-era banking regulations that made the creation of Citigroup possible. During the same period, he helped beat back tighter oversight of exotic financial products, a development he had previously said he was helpless to prevent.
In his capacity as a senior adviser to Citigroup’s top executives and board, he pushed hard for the bank to step up its trading of risky mortgage-related securities and other complex investments as long as it improved oversight — a strategy critics say sowed the seeds of the bank’s current troubles. Mr. Rubin, whose contract specifically absolved him from daily operational responsibilities, has maintained that he could not have foreseen the current mess."
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Degrees of seperation
So
Yesterday the winter edition of Oberlin College Alumni Association magazine comes, with cover story on Eric Bogosian
class of '76 (half dozen after what I would have been if I'd stayed), and once of my favorite actors."Brooding is bad...Threatening is good."
Last movie I saw him in was Cadillac Records, where he plays Alan Freed
Cadillac Records is "history" of Chess Records, home to artists such as Muddy Waters, Chuck Berry.
The #1 back up for Chuck was Bob Baldori.
We're headed to see a concert with him Sat.
OK
But turns out that friend and business partner was introduced to Bob (both Italian-Americans) and he invested in one of Bob's projects: Boogie Stomp: Short documentary reveals history of boogie-woogie
Just weird set of connections
Yesterday the winter edition of Oberlin College Alumni Association magazine comes, with cover story on Eric Bogosian
class of '76 (half dozen after what I would have been if I'd stayed), and once of my favorite actors."Brooding is bad...Threatening is good."
Last movie I saw him in was Cadillac Records, where he plays Alan Freed
Cadillac Records is "history" of Chess Records, home to artists such as Muddy Waters, Chuck Berry.
The #1 back up for Chuck was Bob Baldori.
We're headed to see a concert with him Sat.
OK
But turns out that friend and business partner was introduced to Bob (both Italian-Americans) and he invested in one of Bob's projects: Boogie Stomp: Short documentary reveals history of boogie-woogie
Just weird set of connections
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
What can I say?
Father daughter dance at her wedding
Segue "Young at Heart" to "That's Life"
Facebook | Cuckoo Savante
"…Another Irish act to keep a keen eye on are Cuckoo Savante, a Galway band of mixed sexual orientations who peddle a brand of music they call Hurdy-Gurdy Gothique Electra Loungeporn and boast a queer lead singer, one Jaime Nanci, who comes on like Marc Almond channelling the ghost of Nina Simone. He's got star written all over him…."
Segue "Young at Heart" to "That's Life"
Facebook | Cuckoo Savante
"…Another Irish act to keep a keen eye on are Cuckoo Savante, a Galway band of mixed sexual orientations who peddle a brand of music they call Hurdy-Gurdy Gothique Electra Loungeporn and boast a queer lead singer, one Jaime Nanci, who comes on like Marc Almond channelling the ghost of Nina Simone. He's got star written all over him…."
Monday, January 05, 2009
Down (on) Pat
Newsweek last June:
Christopher Hitchens takes apart Pat Buchanan and his book Churchill, Hitler and the Unnecessary War.
Pat ends up as an apologist for Hitler.
And to think he even ran for President.
Christopher Hitchens takes apart Pat Buchanan and his book Churchill, Hitler and the Unnecessary War.
Pat ends up as an apologist for Hitler.
And to think he even ran for President.
Sunday, January 04, 2009
Quotable
Caught this on NPR yesterday:
Lenoard Bernstein:
"To achieve great things, two things are needed; a plan, and not quite enough time."
Lenoard Bernstein:
"To achieve great things, two things are needed; a plan, and not quite enough time."
Thursday, January 01, 2009
Visit
It was hard to get much of a shot, when ever we moved, even inside it would fly away
Part of the day we had a pair.
Looks like coyotes took down a deer last night
Crows, hawk and the Eagles were getting a New Year treat
Part of the day we had a pair.
Looks like coyotes took down a deer last night
Crows, hawk and the Eagles were getting a New Year treat
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Feeling Old(er)
First, because all of these start in the 60's and 70's
Fark ... I tend to think much of the great (Rock) was done by the 80's
Dates me!
I'd likely drop the no repeats rule, like use Yardbirds, Cream and Clapton solo's
Would also layer in a bunch of Jazz, some "folk", blues, bluegrass, C&W
An Album For Each Year Of My Life
"There’s a new meme traversing the Internet. It involves compiling a list of albums (long play records) for each year of your life. In my case there’s 36 years of albums to choose from, going all the way back to 1972. One further rule is that you’re not allowed to pick an artist/band more than once: so no picking Prince for Purple Rain in 1984 and also for Sign O’ The Times in 1987."
More:
I'm likely closest to Werner:
An Album for Each Year - All Things Distributed
CTO for Amazon
I would get to reach back to stuff like this (I would get to push back a bit more ...)
Birth of the Cool - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Fark ... I tend to think much of the great (Rock) was done by the 80's
Dates me!
I'd likely drop the no repeats rule, like use Yardbirds, Cream and Clapton solo's
Would also layer in a bunch of Jazz, some "folk", blues, bluegrass, C&W
An Album For Each Year Of My Life
"There’s a new meme traversing the Internet. It involves compiling a list of albums (long play records) for each year of your life. In my case there’s 36 years of albums to choose from, going all the way back to 1972. One further rule is that you’re not allowed to pick an artist/band more than once: so no picking Prince for Purple Rain in 1984 and also for Sign O’ The Times in 1987."
More:
I'm likely closest to Werner:
An Album for Each Year - All Things Distributed
CTO for Amazon
I would get to reach back to stuff like this (I would get to push back a bit more ...)
Birth of the Cool - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Clash
Published first in Foreign Affairs in '93, his thesis was rebutted by Mr. Ajamai, who now has had second thoughts.
Fouad Ajami: Samuel Huntington's Warning - WSJ.com:
"The last of Samuel Huntington's books -- 'Who Are We? The Challenges to America's National Identity,' published four years ago -- may have been his most passionate work. It was like that with the celebrated Harvard political scientist, who died last week at 81. He was a man of diffidence and reserve, yet he was always caught up in the political storms of recent decades."
Original revision here: ( with links to original review and original article )
The Clash - Essay by Fouad Ajami - New York Times:
"It would have been unlike Samuel P. Huntington to say “I told you so” after 9/11. He is too austere and serious a man, with a legendary career as arguably the most influential and original political scientist of the last half century — always swimming against the current of prevailing opinion."
Fouad Ajami: Samuel Huntington's Warning - WSJ.com:
"The last of Samuel Huntington's books -- 'Who Are We? The Challenges to America's National Identity,' published four years ago -- may have been his most passionate work. It was like that with the celebrated Harvard political scientist, who died last week at 81. He was a man of diffidence and reserve, yet he was always caught up in the political storms of recent decades."
Original revision here: ( with links to original review and original article )
The Clash - Essay by Fouad Ajami - New York Times:
"It would have been unlike Samuel P. Huntington to say “I told you so” after 9/11. He is too austere and serious a man, with a legendary career as arguably the most influential and original political scientist of the last half century — always swimming against the current of prevailing opinion."
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Electrified
Power out today, big wind early AM, power out sometime around 5:30-6:30
I learned that I miss multi-tasking, reading online, typing, while the TV is on, news or news type show, interviews etc.
Turned the pages of some great old Sci-Fi Shirley gave me for Christmas, took a well deserved nap (or two) kept the generator fueled etc.
So much for the simple life ...
I learned that I miss multi-tasking, reading online, typing, while the TV is on, news or news type show, interviews etc.
Turned the pages of some great old Sci-Fi Shirley gave me for Christmas, took a well deserved nap (or two) kept the generator fueled etc.
So much for the simple life ...
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Bit o' politics
William Blake
"To be an Error and to be Cast out is a part of God’s Design," wrote the visionary poet William Blake. Error, whether random or deliberate, must become an integral part of any process of creation. Evolution can be thought of as systematic error management.
On to Dick Armey:
Nov 5th 2008 - CNBC
"Biggest problem for Republicans was several years of acting as if they didn’t understand who they were on the on the American political scene…
The American Voter expects the Republican party to be the party of individual liberty and small government conservatism, and this party has for the last several years not been that party. So if the choice is the Democratic Party with big government and collective mentality or the Republicans that act like that, why not take the Real McCoy?"
So, did the Republicans stray from their "true path" and can they recover, or will they become a party of the past?
"To be an Error and to be Cast out is a part of God’s Design," wrote the visionary poet William Blake. Error, whether random or deliberate, must become an integral part of any process of creation. Evolution can be thought of as systematic error management.
On to Dick Armey:
Nov 5th 2008 - CNBC
"Biggest problem for Republicans was several years of acting as if they didn’t understand who they were on the on the American political scene…
The American Voter expects the Republican party to be the party of individual liberty and small government conservatism, and this party has for the last several years not been that party. So if the choice is the Democratic Party with big government and collective mentality or the Republicans that act like that, why not take the Real McCoy?"
So, did the Republicans stray from their "true path" and can they recover, or will they become a party of the past?
December thaw
We've gone from good winter weather, mid 20's daily snow to near total melt, warm rain.
We were pretty much caught up from travels, and ready for a weekend of XC skiing or snowshoeing, but overnight the temps kept climbing.
Foot of snow gone by morning, thick fog (sometimes visibility of nil)
Cruised down the road to check the Crystal:
River in Full
Another shot:
We were pretty much caught up from travels, and ready for a weekend of XC skiing or snowshoeing, but overnight the temps kept climbing.
Foot of snow gone by morning, thick fog (sometimes visibility of nil)
Cruised down the road to check the Crystal:
River in Full
Another shot:
Friday, December 26, 2008
Late with the idea
I was going to a patent search, but too late ... to avoid DUI - Dialing Under the Influence
LG Phone :
ABC News: New Cell Can Tell If You're Drunk:
"You can add one more feature to the list: a sobriety test."
LG Phone :
ABC News: New Cell Can Tell If You're Drunk:
"You can add one more feature to the list: a sobriety test."
Here's how it works: Users blow into a small spot on the phone, and if they've had too much to drink the phone issues a warning and shows a weaving car hitting traffic cones.
The company also sells plug-in Breathalyzer adapters for some phones. None of the models tell you exactly how much you may be over or under the legal limit, but it can keep you from making other alcohol-related mistakes.
The LP4100 also allows users to set up the phone so on certain nights and after a certain time they do not call certain people in their phone book. Think ex-boyfriend or ex-girlfriend.
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Insight
Lead from Doc Searls Weblog : Beyond unhelpful partisanship
Dave Weinberger on Rick Warren:
I'm A Lefty And I Like Obama's Pick Of Rick Warren : NPR:
"To be convinced you know what's right and therefore to sneer at those who disagree with you? Or does loving your country in practice mean finding what's best in all your fellow citizens?"
Amen
No sense in radical right or left - that is so 20th century
Dave Weinberger on Rick Warren:
I'm A Lefty And I Like Obama's Pick Of Rick Warren : NPR:
"To be convinced you know what's right and therefore to sneer at those who disagree with you? Or does loving your country in practice mean finding what's best in all your fellow citizens?"
Amen
No sense in radical right or left - that is so 20th century
Winter
Well, it's Winter (came Sunday night)
On Snow etc.
I guess it's combination of history of allergies - which don't affect me in winter, being rather warm-blooded, the cold doesn't seem to bother me all that much. Besides, I've always found it easier to get warm than to cool off.
With Winter there are fewer others in town, the woods, on the beaches.
I enjoy th quiet of the countryside/woods with snow to dampen sounds.
It's a time of rest for nature, and for the soul.
We enjoy a warm fire and a good book ...
On Snow etc.
I guess it's combination of history of allergies - which don't affect me in winter, being rather warm-blooded, the cold doesn't seem to bother me all that much. Besides, I've always found it easier to get warm than to cool off.
With Winter there are fewer others in town, the woods, on the beaches.
I enjoy th quiet of the countryside/woods with snow to dampen sounds.
It's a time of rest for nature, and for the soul.
We enjoy a warm fire and a good book ...
Not so bad
As much as some may bemoan the state of the nation, we just watched:
WGBH | James Brown: Live at the Boston Garden, 1968:
(click link for video and audio)
"On April 5, 1968, the day after Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated, Boston, a city that was no stranger to racial tension, seemed ready to join the more than 60 other communities across the nation that were rioting. Mayor Kevin White considered canceling all public events in an effort to stem any potential violence."
This was the year of the killings of Dr.King, Bobby Kennedy, cities on fire, war protest, a failed presidency... turmoil
Makes a recession feel tame.
And ... we have a pending black president ... how things change
At the concert, and a day later, in Washington DC, James called for peace and that violence was anathema to the spirit of Dr. King
WGBH | James Brown: Live at the Boston Garden, 1968:
(click link for video and audio)
"On April 5, 1968, the day after Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated, Boston, a city that was no stranger to racial tension, seemed ready to join the more than 60 other communities across the nation that were rioting. Mayor Kevin White considered canceling all public events in an effort to stem any potential violence."
This was the year of the killings of Dr.King, Bobby Kennedy, cities on fire, war protest, a failed presidency... turmoil
Makes a recession feel tame.
And ... we have a pending black president ... how things change
At the concert, and a day later, in Washington DC, James called for peace and that violence was anathema to the spirit of Dr. King
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Planes, Trains and Automobies
Addendum to
Looney Dunes: Travel
Drove home today ... all OK for most of it.
Driving my nice '93 Cadillac STS (small with big engine)
Till the brakes started to fail
Got it into a dealership - Bill Marsh, they kept the doors open an extra few min for me.
Where do the trains come in?
Grandson got several sets of Thomas the Train in Lego form
That was fun
Looney Dunes: Travel
Drove home today ... all OK for most of it.
Driving my nice '93 Cadillac STS (small with big engine)
Till the brakes started to fail
Got it into a dealership - Bill Marsh, they kept the doors open an extra few min for me.
Where do the trains come in?
Grandson got several sets of Thomas the Train in Lego form
That was fun
Monday, December 22, 2008
America ... Mars?
Trying to use my time here in MSP well
Did read part of hardcopy (rare for me, online is quick, easy and hands clean)
Found the following - but not online
My New Year wish is that we return to the time and attitude of can-do/will-do, not one of flash/bling and entitlement - both rich and poor.
From “The Emigrant’s Guide” (1829) by British writer William Cobbett:
“One great advantage in America is, that there is nobody to overshadow men of moderate property; no swaggering, shining, tax-eating wretches to set examples of extravagance, wealth, not according to what is called birth, but according to the real intrinsic merit of the party: this is a wonderful advantage.”pride and insolence to your sons and daughters, who are brought up in the habit of seeing men estimated, not according to the show that they make, not according to their supposed"
Above the the above piece was :
A New Land of Opportunity
One way to recapture the frontier spirit and relearn the value of hard work, self-reliance and risk-taking.
By GLENN HARLAN REYNOLDS
Back when America was being settled, enterprising authors in Europe published books and pamphlets aimed at would-be immigrants, offering advice on how to flourish in the New World. Some of the advice was sound, and some of it wasn't, but readers devoured them anyway.
With "How to Live on Mars," Robert Zubrin has produced a new entry in the genre -- a guidebook for settlers to a place that hasn't been settled yet, written in the present tense of a future that won't happen for a hundred years. It makes for amusing and interesting reading and in some ways may capture the feel of a colonization-in-progress Mars better than more sober works about the challenges of planetary habitation.
Mr. Zubrin -- who has degrees in both astronautics and nuclear engineering -- has himself written plenty of more sober works on the subject of Mars, including "The Case for Mars: The Plan to Settle the Red Planet and Why We Must" (1996). But unlike many scientists and engineers, he is interested in human nature as much as the laws of nature, and he understands that life on a frontier is very different from life in a society without one.
Thus the Mars that Mr. Zubrin describes is a place where opportunity and risk are both much higher than on late 21st-century Earth -- or, for that matter, early 21st-century Earth. The bold and enterprising can succeed big, or fail big, without fear of confiscatory taxes or hope of government bailouts. Getting ahead calls for a keen mind, a strong back, and a willingness to work hard and take chances; opportunities to succeed by manipulating laws and regulations are harder to come by -- though, humans being human, not entirely absent even on Mars.
Some of the qualities of the new world on Mars are outlined in a chapter titled "How to Get a Good Job That Pays Well and Doesn't Kill You." Mr. Zubrin opens by observing: "There is no point writing a chapter about 'how to get a job' on Mars because the problem does not exist. I know that this statement must sound unbelievable to you, coming as you do from a planet where your primary lifelong concern has been to find a way to convince some institution to grant you a livelihood in exchange for service, but that is not how things work here. . . . Earth has a labor surplus, while Mars has a labor shortage." As for possible work, he observes that crucial "fluorosilicate minerals are sometimes encountered in significant concentrations in the highlands. So, if you are up for a little field exploration, one way to make some serious money is just to go out and find the stuff and stake some claims."
Evidently, there is lots of honest work on a planet under settlement (as well as a lot of potentially lucrative semi-honest work in land speculation). And the shortage of people produces a number of other differences from Earth, not least when it comes to dating, sex and parenting. "I need to discuss one fact concerning our social life that inevitably startles and amazes all new Earthling immigrants . . . ," Mr. Zubrin writes. "On Mars, the institution of marriage still exists. I am not making this up. . . . Incredible as it sounds, people on Mars actually want to have children of their own and they form families for that purpose. Thus, while sexual attractiveness is a factor among us while seeking pairings, unlike Earth, it is not the only factor." Concerned with getting ahead and raising families, Mars settlers view traditional attributes like loyalty and trustworthiness as far more important than do the residents of Earth, who, as best as can be determined from Mr. Zubrin's passing allusions, live in one gigantic welfare state.
If "How to Live on Mars" is in the vein of 19th- century guides to the New World, it is also in the tradition of futuristic fiction -- using a hypothetical future society as a way of pointing up trends and problems in our own. There seems little question that Mr. Zubrin views the values of a frontier as superior to those of a closed civilization. He begins with a quotation from the historian Frederick Jackson Turner: "To the frontier the American intellect owes its striking characteristics. That coarseness of strength combined with acuteness and inquisitiveness; that practical, inventive turn of mind, quick to find expedients; that masterful grasp of material things." Mr. Zubrin has written elsewhere that he believes the outlet and example of a frontier is necessary for the long-term survival of freedom for those who remain behind.
Such frontier values are perhaps unfashionable in the age of Hope and Change, but they are widely held among Americans nonetheless. If "How to Live on Mars" inspires a greater enthusiasm for opening frontiers in space, it will have served a good purpose. But it will have done as much if it merely succeeds in reminding people of the importance of things like enterprise, hard work and self-reliance.
Mr. Reynolds, a professor of law at the University of Tennessee, serves on the Board of Advisors of the National Space Society.
Did read part of hardcopy (rare for me, online is quick, easy and hands clean)
Found the following - but not online
My New Year wish is that we return to the time and attitude of can-do/will-do, not one of flash/bling and entitlement - both rich and poor.
From “The Emigrant’s Guide” (1829) by British writer William Cobbett:
“One great advantage in America is, that there is nobody to overshadow men of moderate property; no swaggering, shining, tax-eating wretches to set examples of extravagance, wealth, not according to what is called birth, but according to the real intrinsic merit of the party: this is a wonderful advantage.”pride and insolence to your sons and daughters, who are brought up in the habit of seeing men estimated, not according to the show that they make, not according to their supposed"
Above the the above piece was :
A New Land of Opportunity
One way to recapture the frontier spirit and relearn the value of hard work, self-reliance and risk-taking.
By GLENN HARLAN REYNOLDS
Back when America was being settled, enterprising authors in Europe published books and pamphlets aimed at would-be immigrants, offering advice on how to flourish in the New World. Some of the advice was sound, and some of it wasn't, but readers devoured them anyway.
With "How to Live on Mars," Robert Zubrin has produced a new entry in the genre -- a guidebook for settlers to a place that hasn't been settled yet, written in the present tense of a future that won't happen for a hundred years. It makes for amusing and interesting reading and in some ways may capture the feel of a colonization-in-progress Mars better than more sober works about the challenges of planetary habitation.
Mr. Zubrin -- who has degrees in both astronautics and nuclear engineering -- has himself written plenty of more sober works on the subject of Mars, including "The Case for Mars: The Plan to Settle the Red Planet and Why We Must" (1996). But unlike many scientists and engineers, he is interested in human nature as much as the laws of nature, and he understands that life on a frontier is very different from life in a society without one.
Thus the Mars that Mr. Zubrin describes is a place where opportunity and risk are both much higher than on late 21st-century Earth -- or, for that matter, early 21st-century Earth. The bold and enterprising can succeed big, or fail big, without fear of confiscatory taxes or hope of government bailouts. Getting ahead calls for a keen mind, a strong back, and a willingness to work hard and take chances; opportunities to succeed by manipulating laws and regulations are harder to come by -- though, humans being human, not entirely absent even on Mars.
Some of the qualities of the new world on Mars are outlined in a chapter titled "How to Get a Good Job That Pays Well and Doesn't Kill You." Mr. Zubrin opens by observing: "There is no point writing a chapter about 'how to get a job' on Mars because the problem does not exist. I know that this statement must sound unbelievable to you, coming as you do from a planet where your primary lifelong concern has been to find a way to convince some institution to grant you a livelihood in exchange for service, but that is not how things work here. . . . Earth has a labor surplus, while Mars has a labor shortage." As for possible work, he observes that crucial "fluorosilicate minerals are sometimes encountered in significant concentrations in the highlands. So, if you are up for a little field exploration, one way to make some serious money is just to go out and find the stuff and stake some claims."
Evidently, there is lots of honest work on a planet under settlement (as well as a lot of potentially lucrative semi-honest work in land speculation). And the shortage of people produces a number of other differences from Earth, not least when it comes to dating, sex and parenting. "I need to discuss one fact concerning our social life that inevitably startles and amazes all new Earthling immigrants . . . ," Mr. Zubrin writes. "On Mars, the institution of marriage still exists. I am not making this up. . . . Incredible as it sounds, people on Mars actually want to have children of their own and they form families for that purpose. Thus, while sexual attractiveness is a factor among us while seeking pairings, unlike Earth, it is not the only factor." Concerned with getting ahead and raising families, Mars settlers view traditional attributes like loyalty and trustworthiness as far more important than do the residents of Earth, who, as best as can be determined from Mr. Zubrin's passing allusions, live in one gigantic welfare state.
If "How to Live on Mars" is in the vein of 19th- century guides to the New World, it is also in the tradition of futuristic fiction -- using a hypothetical future society as a way of pointing up trends and problems in our own. There seems little question that Mr. Zubrin views the values of a frontier as superior to those of a closed civilization. He begins with a quotation from the historian Frederick Jackson Turner: "To the frontier the American intellect owes its striking characteristics. That coarseness of strength combined with acuteness and inquisitiveness; that practical, inventive turn of mind, quick to find expedients; that masterful grasp of material things." Mr. Zubrin has written elsewhere that he believes the outlet and example of a frontier is necessary for the long-term survival of freedom for those who remain behind.
Such frontier values are perhaps unfashionable in the age of Hope and Change, but they are widely held among Americans nonetheless. If "How to Live on Mars" inspires a greater enthusiasm for opening frontiers in space, it will have served a good purpose. But it will have done as much if it merely succeeds in reminding people of the importance of things like enterprise, hard work and self-reliance.
Mr. Reynolds, a professor of law at the University of Tennessee, serves on the Board of Advisors of the National Space Society.
Mall-ed
Too much for me
Mall of America Directory
I don't normally "Mall"
If I need something, I tend to buy, not shop.
But we had at least a day, the Marriott I picked was within walking distance - 1/2 mile ?
But with below zero temps, no hat/gloves, light jacket, we took shuttle ... then got our walking in.
Very few "essentials", changes of under-ware, cosmetics.. mostly killing time.
Anchors Nordstrum's, Bloomingdale's, Macy's and Sears, literally hundreds ore on 3 levels.
Did catch Cadillac Records, the history of Chess Records as told by Willi Dixon.
Good stuff.
Some "mall watching"
Very MidWest, jeans (tighter if younger) sweats, parkas or light jackets, mukluks or high heel boots (huh?)
Kids doing "malling" older folks doing some buying.
I suppose it's a great place for mid winter, a dozen or so movie screens, several "special entertainment" events, indoor amusement park, little other than lots of fast food, though we found a passable Italian themed sit-down.
I'm calling it a "once in a lifetime" event - don't really need to go back.
Mall of America Directory
I don't normally "Mall"
If I need something, I tend to buy, not shop.
But we had at least a day, the Marriott I picked was within walking distance - 1/2 mile ?
But with below zero temps, no hat/gloves, light jacket, we took shuttle ... then got our walking in.
Very few "essentials", changes of under-ware, cosmetics.. mostly killing time.
Anchors Nordstrum's, Bloomingdale's, Macy's and Sears, literally hundreds ore on 3 levels.
Did catch Cadillac Records, the history of Chess Records as told by Willi Dixon.
Good stuff.
Some "mall watching"
Very MidWest, jeans (tighter if younger) sweats, parkas or light jackets, mukluks or high heel boots (huh?)
Kids doing "malling" older folks doing some buying.
I suppose it's a great place for mid winter, a dozen or so movie screens, several "special entertainment" events, indoor amusement park, little other than lots of fast food, though we found a passable Italian themed sit-down.
I'm calling it a "once in a lifetime" event - don't really need to go back.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Travel
So
We wrapped a great visit with family (except many be the cool/rainy weather)
Made it to San Jose airport, no problem
Until
12:25 flight delayed until 2:20 due to bad weather in Minneapolis ... but looked like our connecting flight was delayed as well.
No problem
Until
We boarded about 2:15 (further delay until 3:10) - tight window with Air Traffic Control to get into Minneapolis
Until - as they were closing the door, NWA called my cell to tell me that the TVC leg was canceled, and no seats until Wed...
We could leave the plane - but - would delay while they retrieved our luggage
As this was all very last min, and we did not know when we'd be able to re-book, decided to to take the first leg.
Later, one of the stewardesses told me that if we had left, the delay (15-20 min to get our luggage) the crew would be right behind us - as it would make them go over limit on their travel time.
Good flight to MSP
Until
We ended up in line (first/elite class check in) for 2hours for re-booking
Figured we could fly to Chicago, grab a rental car
Whoops - no one way rental Chicago to Lansing or Traverse City
15 below in MSP, wind chill of - 45 below.
At least I had been smart enough to call Marriott for a room (NWA call center was jammed)
Turned in by 1PM local, off to explore "Mall of America" this afternoon
We fly out 8:20 (PM) Mon - to Lansing, then grab car for TVC, luggage, dog etc.
Christmas at home this year
PS - need to revamp luggage planning - we aren't allowed to have ours - it goes to TVC
Will go back to a carry-on plus briefcase
Working on permanent list - such as cell charger... I've got the car charger with me, plug in packed in luggage - duh.
Following - MSP terminal, near midnight Sat.
There were at least a thousand still in line.
As I said above waited 2hrs - for 1st class re-booking
We wrapped a great visit with family (except many be the cool/rainy weather)
Made it to San Jose airport, no problem
Until
12:25 flight delayed until 2:20 due to bad weather in Minneapolis ... but looked like our connecting flight was delayed as well.
No problem
Until
We boarded about 2:15 (further delay until 3:10) - tight window with Air Traffic Control to get into Minneapolis
Until - as they were closing the door, NWA called my cell to tell me that the TVC leg was canceled, and no seats until Wed...
We could leave the plane - but - would delay while they retrieved our luggage
As this was all very last min, and we did not know when we'd be able to re-book, decided to to take the first leg.
Later, one of the stewardesses told me that if we had left, the delay (15-20 min to get our luggage) the crew would be right behind us - as it would make them go over limit on their travel time.
Good flight to MSP
Until
We ended up in line (first/elite class check in) for 2hours for re-booking
Figured we could fly to Chicago, grab a rental car
Whoops - no one way rental Chicago to Lansing or Traverse City
15 below in MSP, wind chill of - 45 below.
At least I had been smart enough to call Marriott for a room (NWA call center was jammed)
Turned in by 1PM local, off to explore "Mall of America" this afternoon
We fly out 8:20 (PM) Mon - to Lansing, then grab car for TVC, luggage, dog etc.
Christmas at home this year
PS - need to revamp luggage planning - we aren't allowed to have ours - it goes to TVC
Will go back to a carry-on plus briefcase
Working on permanent list - such as cell charger... I've got the car charger with me, plug in packed in luggage - duh.
Following - MSP terminal, near midnight Sat.
There were at least a thousand still in line.
As I said above waited 2hrs - for 1st class re-booking
Friday, December 19, 2008
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Quotes of note
No particular order
Comment on Robin Williams:
" He's the only person Keith Richards will tell, I've got to be going home now Jack"
Comment by Robby Emens upon being told that he has misbehaved, will loose television privilege's that there are consequences for actions...
"No consequences"
Robby is 3
Comment on Robin Williams:
" He's the only person Keith Richards will tell, I've got to be going home now Jack"
Comment by Robby Emens upon being told that he has misbehaved, will loose television privilege's that there are consequences for actions...
"No consequences"
Robby is 3
Monday, December 15, 2008
Fie on all of them
While I've been dealing with some local issues, referring to a need for "Adult Supervision", I'm beginning to think we need the same in Washington.
Obama isn't even in office, and the pot is stirring... bah humbug
"Indeed, except for brief interludes, Washington in the last decade has been governed by a climate of anger and animosity, a modern-day tribalism pitting faction against faction that some trace to the days of the impeachment.
“It definitely poisoned the well on both sides,” said Representative Peter T. King of New York, one of the few Republicans to vote against impeachment. “Without getting into the merits of anything, there’s no doubt there were Democrats waiting from the day George Bush took office to even the score for Bill Clinton. And Republicans are the same today with Barack Obama and the Rod Blagojevich scandal.”"
“It definitely poisoned the well on both sides,” said Representative Peter T. King of New York, one of the few Republicans to vote against impeachment. “Without getting into the merits of anything, there’s no doubt there were Democrats waiting from the day George Bush took office to even the score for Bill Clinton. And Republicans are the same today with Barack Obama and the Rod Blagojevich scandal.”"
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Ecotopia
A ’70s Cult Novel Is Relevant Again
Predicting locavores (people who eat only foods that have been produced within a 100-mile radius) as well as other trends
California
We came all the way from NW Mich for this?
We left blowing snow, in the 20's to head here to SiValley
Got chilly, windy and rain
Low last night in the mid-30's
Nikki and Rob did say it's near record lows ... we should expect 50's-60's
But we came for family, not weather (VBG)
Update : 49 in Los Altos Hills, 45 in Glen Arbor, but as Nikki says - no snow here
We left blowing snow, in the 20's to head here to SiValley
Got chilly, windy and rain
Low last night in the mid-30's
Nikki and Rob did say it's near record lows ... we should expect 50's-60's
But we came for family, not weather (VBG)
Update : 49 in Los Altos Hills, 45 in Glen Arbor, but as Nikki says - no snow here
Gods
Picked up Freeman Dyson's Infinite in All Directions - for some reading on the flight
Hadn't read it in years
Published '85
Still a great read
Chapter 1 "In Praise of Diversity" (seems timely)
When my son was three years old he liked to crawl into my bed in the early morning and talk about the problems of life. On morning he said abruptly, "You know there are tow Gods." I was surprised and asked him, "What are their names?" He replied, "One is called Jesus and he makes people, and the other is called Bacchus and he makes wine."
Humm ... profound for a three year old.
Got to meet George (the three year old) via PCForum, and a most interesting author in his own right.
Check Amazon
Infinite in All Directions: Gifford Lectures Given at Aberdeen, Scotland April--November 1985 (Paperback)
As well as George's work.
Hadn't read it in years
Published '85
Still a great read
Chapter 1 "In Praise of Diversity" (seems timely)
When my son was three years old he liked to crawl into my bed in the early morning and talk about the problems of life. On morning he said abruptly, "You know there are tow Gods." I was surprised and asked him, "What are their names?" He replied, "One is called Jesus and he makes people, and the other is called Bacchus and he makes wine."
Humm ... profound for a three year old.
Got to meet George (the three year old) via PCForum, and a most interesting author in his own right.
Check Amazon
Infinite in All Directions: Gifford Lectures Given at Aberdeen, Scotland April--November 1985 (Paperback)
As well as George's work.
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
The more things change
Illinois Governor Arrested on Federal Charges - WSJ.com
Of note : prior governor is currently in jail...
Further note - 20% of Illinois Governors in last 100yrs have been indicted or convicted felons
Associated Press
Of note : prior governor is currently in jail...
Further note - 20% of Illinois Governors in last 100yrs have been indicted or convicted felons
Associated Press
CHICAGO -- Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich was arrested Tuesday on charges of conspiring to get financial benefits through his authority to appoint a U.S. senator to fill the vacancy left by Barack Obama's election as president.
According to a federal criminal complaint, Mr. Blagojevich also was charged with illegally threatening to withhold state assistance to Tribune Co., the owner of the Chicago Tribune, in the sale of Wrigley Field. In return for state assistance, Mr. Blagojevich allegedly wanted members of the paper's editorial board who had been critical of him fired.
Mr. Blagojevich also was charged with using his authority as governor in an attempt to squeeze out campaign contributions.
Mr. Blagojevich's chief of staff, John Harris, also was arrested.
Federal agents were in Mr. Blagojevich's office in the Thompson Center in downtown Chicago on Tuesday morning.
Corruption in the Mr. Blagojevich administration has been the focus of a federal Operation Board Games involving an alleged $7 million scheme aimed at squeezing kickbacks out of companies seeking business from the state. Federal prosecutors have acknowledged they're also investigating "serious allegations of endemic hiring fraud" under Mr. Blagojevich.
The Chicago Tribune reported Tuesday morning that the federal investigation had spread to Mr. Blagojevich's efforts to fill the U.S. Senate vacancy left by the election of Barack Obama as president.
Political fundraiser Antoin "Tony" Rezko who raised money for the campaigns of both Messrs. Blagojevich and Obama is awaiting sentencing after being convicted of fraud and other charges. Mr. Blagojevich's chief fundraiser, Christopher G. Kelly, is due to stand trial early next year on charges of obstructing the Internal Revenue Service.
Mr. Blagojevich, a Democrat, took the chief executive's office in 2003 as a reformer promising to clean up former Gov. George Ryan's mess.
Mr. Ryan, a Republican, is serving a 6-year prison sentence after being convicted on racketeering and fraud charges. The decade-long investigation began with the sale of driver's licenses for bribes and led to the conviction of dozens of people who worked for Mr. Ryan when he was secretary of state and governor.
Monday, December 08, 2008
Home
About all I can say is ... yup
"According to the Leelanau Conservancy 'Glen Lake, framed by a dramatic rise of Sleeping Bear to the west, and surrounded by high-forested moraines to the east and south, presents one of the most recognizable landscapes in Michigan. The waters of Glen Lake are so pure that with increasing depth, on a clear day the water colors shift from sandy hues of the shallows through aquamarine to some of the deepest blue known anywhere.' A better description of Glen Lake cannot be found."
Sunday, December 07, 2008
File under Duh
Catching up on some prior items that should have been blogged earlier
Like this one from Nov 4th.
But the piece misses some other, to me obvious factors.
How do you quantify, or model, greed and panic?
"What happened?
The models, according to finance experts and economists, did fail to keep pace with the explosive growth in complex securities, the resulting intricate web of risk and the dimensions of the danger.
But the larger failure, they say, was human — in how the risk models were applied, understood and managed. Some respected quantitative finance analysts, or quants, as financial engineers are known, had begun pointing to warning signs years ago. But while markets were booming, the incentives on Wall Street were to keep chasing profits by trading more and more sophisticated securities, piling on more debt and making larger and larger bets."
The models, according to finance experts and economists, did fail to keep pace with the explosive growth in complex securities, the resulting intricate web of risk and the dimensions of the danger.
But the larger failure, they say, was human — in how the risk models were applied, understood and managed. Some respected quantitative finance analysts, or quants, as financial engineers are known, had begun pointing to warning signs years ago. But while markets were booming, the incentives on Wall Street were to keep chasing profits by trading more and more sophisticated securities, piling on more debt and making larger and larger bets."
Friday, December 05, 2008
Oh Deer Oh Deer
We call them rats on stilts
Northern Bob Downs from Northern Express.:
"What’s the most dangerous animal in the woods? The black bear, the honey bee, the human being? Well, it’s the deer of course: tens of thousands of them leap in front of our cars each year and 65,000 find their mark -- some flying through front windshields with deadly results."
He then enumerates data on the herd, how we have fewer hunters to cull the herd.
Northern Bob Downs from Northern Express.:
"What’s the most dangerous animal in the woods? The black bear, the honey bee, the human being? Well, it’s the deer of course: tens of thousands of them leap in front of our cars each year and 65,000 find their mark -- some flying through front windshields with deadly results."
He then enumerates data on the herd, how we have fewer hunters to cull the herd.
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Ducks on a Snowy Lake
Flock of ducks several hundred yards offshore, some early ice in between.
Ducks are those little dots.
Mid-day, about 1:30 so not a very bright day!
Ducks are those little dots.
Mid-day, about 1:30 so not a very bright day!
Investment shifts
Bill Gross of PIMCO on CNBC
Notes:
Finishing a period of
1) leverage
2) lower corporate taxes
3) lax regulation
This is an intergenerational change
He's not buying government paper but looking at corps
Too much flight to quality
Fed easeings lowers yields too much
Corps
CAT and HP – yield 6 to 8 !!!
A rated
Currently in banks, mortgage backed instruments that Govt is buying
Bank preferreds at 10+%
Good chance of stabilization now, improving asset prices, real growth
More government, govt fist vs. invisible hand, regulation increases, profits no longer due to leverage,
Risk will be rewarded
His thoughts laid out here PIMCO - Investment Outlook: Dow 5000 Gross Dec 08:
Notes:
Finishing a period of
1) leverage
2) lower corporate taxes
3) lax regulation
This is an intergenerational change
He's not buying government paper but looking at corps
Too much flight to quality
Fed easeings lowers yields too much
Corps
CAT and HP – yield 6 to 8 !!!
A rated
Currently in banks, mortgage backed instruments that Govt is buying
Bank preferreds at 10+%
Good chance of stabilization now, improving asset prices, real growth
More government, govt fist vs. invisible hand, regulation increases, profits no longer due to leverage,
Risk will be rewarded
His thoughts laid out here PIMCO - Investment Outlook: Dow 5000 Gross Dec 08:
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Real early geology
Ongoing evolution of ideas about the evolution of the earth.
May have cooled earlier, therefore a slower evolution of life.
Having been a "student" of geology since at least the '60's (Oberlin College, where, on the leading edge, we had "Continental Drift" before Plate Tectonics) I've been fascinated with the ongoing evolution of thought and theories.
A New View of the Early Earth, Thanks to Australian Rocks - NYTimes.com:
"Geologists now almost universally agree that by 4.2 billion years ago, the Earth was a pretty placid place, with both land and oceans. Instead of hellishly hot, it may have frozen over. Because the young Sun put out 30 percent less energy than it does today, temperatures on Earth might have been cold enough for parts of the surface to have been covered by expanses of ice."
May have cooled earlier, therefore a slower evolution of life.
Having been a "student" of geology since at least the '60's (Oberlin College, where, on the leading edge, we had "Continental Drift" before Plate Tectonics) I've been fascinated with the ongoing evolution of thought and theories.
A New View of the Early Earth, Thanks to Australian Rocks - NYTimes.com:
"Geologists now almost universally agree that by 4.2 billion years ago, the Earth was a pretty placid place, with both land and oceans. Instead of hellishly hot, it may have frozen over. Because the young Sun put out 30 percent less energy than it does today, temperatures on Earth might have been cold enough for parts of the surface to have been covered by expanses of ice."
Monday, December 01, 2008
Michigan - December
Back home, a bit of snow
OK, so it snowed most of the way home, but we made it in good time
Just pay attention
So it continues to come down through the night
About 6AM - power out
We head to town for a bit of breakfast
Whoops
Back and grab the saws
5 Min and the tree's moved out of the way
Likely culprit is branches like this:
Fired up generator, house is wired for minimal power with aux, just a few circuits
Food, heat, a few lights
Got caught up on some reading
Out again for some supper and word about outages - several circuits out
Power up by about 8PM
Not too bad, all things considered
Just another day in Paradise
OK, so it snowed most of the way home, but we made it in good time
Just pay attention
So it continues to come down through the night
About 6AM - power out
We head to town for a bit of breakfast
Whoops
Back and grab the saws
5 Min and the tree's moved out of the way
Likely culprit is branches like this:
Fired up generator, house is wired for minimal power with aux, just a few circuits
Food, heat, a few lights
Got caught up on some reading
Out again for some supper and word about outages - several circuits out
Power up by about 8PM
Not too bad, all things considered
Just another day in Paradise
Sunday, November 30, 2008
So much for that one
Over the top "Yellowstone Club" goes down ...
"But the sense of refuge was an illusion. The global financial crises have stormed even these gilded confines: This month, the Yellowstone Club filed for bankruptcy protection."
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