"History is a wonderful thing, if only it was true"
-Tolstoy
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
On Language
More reading from the Economist
An early warning about the dangers of keeping interest rates low
Housing
Shiller bases the possibility on a parallel between what has happened in the U.S. housing market and what happened in Japan. After a sharp increase from the late 1990s through the peak in 2006, home prices in the U.S. have declined for three years until the recent sharp government intervention. In Japan urban land prices (home prices) peaked around 1991, and then fell for 15 consecutive years in major cities of Japan. 'That's the way these markets typically, historically have worked, and it reflects changing public attitude,' said Shiller. 'These are not professional markets that trade on exchanges and turn on a dime. The only reason they turned on a dime this time is because of a massive government intervention.'"
What's wrong with the Economy?
“So long as our leaders tell us that we must trust them to regulate and redistribute our way back to prosperity, we will not break out of this economic quagmire,” Mr. Loeb wrote.
“Perhaps our leaders will awaken to the fact that free market capitalism is the best system to allocate resources and create innovation, growth and jobs,” he continued. “Perhaps too, a cloven-hoofed, bristly haired mammal will become airborne and the rosette-like marking of a certain breed of ferocious feline will become altered. In other words, we are not holding our breath.”
and earlier
For several reasons. The vitriol has a xenophobic edge: witness the venomous references to “British Petroleum”, a name BP dropped in 1998 (just as well that it dispensed with the name Anglo-Iranian Oil Company even longer ago). Vilifying BP also gets in the way of identifying other culprits, one of which is the government. BP operates in one of the most regulated industries on earth with some of the most perverse rules, subsidies and incentives. Shoddy oversight clearly contributed to the spill, and an energy policy which reduced the demand for oil would do more to avert future environmental horrors than fierce retribution.
Mr Obama is not the socialist the right claims he is. He went out of his way, meeting BP executives on June 16th, to insist that he has no interest in undermining the company’s financial stability. But his reaction is cementing business leaders’ impression that he is indifferent to their concerns. If he sees any impropriety in politicians ordering executives about, upstaging the courts and threatening confiscation, he has not said so. The collapse in BP’s share price suggests that he has convinced the markets that he is an American version of Vladimir Putin, willing to harry firms into doing his bidding."
Monday, August 30, 2010
Asia and the Indian Ocean
Sunday, August 29, 2010
24
Economist Links
"Rich countries must act to prevent prices from falling. That will cause problems for emerging economies"
failure
Rationale for pursuing NatGas
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Part of the Problem
The Subprime Mortgage Crisis on Trial - NYTimes.com
The financial crisis has led to only a few civil and criminal cases against executives, and even those focused on peripheral issues: Goldman Sachs’s peddling of a credit derivative obligation and the communications of two former Bear Stearns hedge fund managers.
But the Securities and Exchange Commission’s securities fraud action against Angelo R. Mozilo, former chief executive of Countrywide Financial, promises to feature the aggressive mortgage practices of what was then the nation’s largest mortgage lender."
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
A Sad Tale
Ken on why this election is so important
Monday, August 23, 2010
for the Duh file
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Comment on Racing
Air Force issues
Top 10 U.S. Air Force TECHNOLOGY HORIZONS
Chief Scientist Werner Dahm says could provide disproportionate advantage for the Air Force
The new U.S. Air Force Technology Horizons study contains a list of 30 “potential capability areas”. The top 10 are:
- Inherently intrusion-resilient cyber-systems.
- Automated cyber-vulnerability assessments.
- Decision-quality prediction of behavior.
- Augmentation of human performance.
- Constructive environments for discovery and training.
- Adaptive, flexibly autonomous systems.
- Frequency-agile spectrum utilization.
- Dominant-spectrum warfare operations.
- Precision navigation/timing in GPS-denied environments.
- Next-generation, high-bandwidth communications.
Aviation Week & Space Technology (July 19, 2010 issue)
Global Warming or bad planning
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Self Congratulations
What is the EDC? An unneeded extension of government into the private sector, or an effective tool to stimulate the economy?
While a creature of government, the Leelanau County Economic Development Corporation, more commonly referred to as the EDC, has helped several businesses in Leelanau County gain a foothold in a slippery market and spurred employment through investment.
The 11-member committee which is appointed by the county board is an all-volunteer organization that meets every other month to discuss opportunities for economic development in Leelnau County. “We’re interested in making sure we do the right things up here,” said corporation chairman John “Chip” Hoagland. Hoagland held a similar position when he lived downstate and rose to chairman of the Leelanau group after Todd Stachnik stepped down.
Hoagland is joined by 10 others on the board. They are Stachnik, Joan Kalchik, David Rowe, Marie Porter, Jim Bardenhagen, Jose Barrera, Sally Guzowski, James Reynolds, David Shiflett, and Erik Zehender.
Each member of the group tackles specific areas of development. For instance, cherry farmer Jim Bardenhagen covers agriculture, and newest member Eric Zehender keeps tabs on energy and utilities. “(We’re) developing more of a committee structure to be able to address issues more quickly,” related Hoagland. “We only meet once every two months for 2 or 3 hours, but now the committees can hash out issues before the meeting.”
Committees are headed by an EDC board director but are also comprised of other members of the Leelanau County community. Tim Nelson is in the agriculture division.
Operating on a budget of $16,500 last year, the EDC is looking to increase that number to $27,500 for the upcoming fiscal year. Along with that money the EDC also has access to a revolving loan of $25,000 from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to help kick start local businesses like iOmni, which needed a little extra capital.
“We had an opportunity to grow our business, but we needed more money to execute,” related owner Veronica Moyer. The Greilickville- based iOmni, who received the loan in October 2008, designs custom distribution plans and provides supply chain management services for national accounts. It employs 5 people.
EDC funds were used to purchase a computer server needed to expand capacity. “The Leelanau and Traverse City EDC’s were really great. At the time we needed some help, they were there for us... They also helped orchestrate additional loans and organized our cash flow statements,” she added.
Another business that has benefited from the EDC involvement is clothing manufacturer Baa Baa ZuZu. The company, which is located just off M-22 on Schomberg Road, manufactures women’s apparel and accessories out of 100% recycled wool. Workers were cutting material by hand before the EDC became involved.
“The 2009 loan gave us the ability to automate our cutting as we bought 2 clipper presses with the money,” said owner Kevin Burns.
Kevin and his wife, Sue Burns, started the business 17 years ago, and have spent the majority of time developing brand recognition and establishing markets for products.
“Many people have tried to duplicate us, but we’re the real phony. We’ve almost hit our niche, but there’s still work to be done,” he said.
The Burns’ loan was made available because iOmni paid its loan off early, according to Chairman Hoagland. Burns related that he was also on track to pay his loan down before the allotted time so that the corporation could “help someone else.”
“I approached them (the EDC), after Chauncey (David Shiftlett) alerted me to the loan’s availability. Since the loan our business has been grown by about 30 to 40 percent. We’re fortunate that the recession hasn’t hit us” Kevin Burns related.
“We’re a fourth quarter business, and we process nearly 1,500 pounds of recycled wool every two weeks. We’ll go up to almost 3,000 come fall,” he added.
Employing 19 people in Leelanau County, Baa Baa Zuzu’s products are available in over 1,000 stores nationwide. The company is looking to grow, according to Burns.
“We needed to automate our production for our niche market. We did $1.1 million in sales last year and (are) looking to hit $1.6 this year,” Burns said.
The Leelanau County Economic Development Corporation has other functions, including providing a conduit for state and federal funding for fledgling businesses.
“If a developer comes to me and says, ‘I need $20 million. I can raise $19 million.’ Then I can find $1 million more. We’re involved in what you call gap financing,” said Hoagland.
The EDC also works with the United States Department of Agriculture to funnel funds from its rural development program into Leelanau County.
“My opinion is that many taxpayers have already written checks to Lansing and Washington, some of those funds should come back to our community,” he added. “Our goal is to encourage job creation in the county, and my personal bias is full-time rather than seasonal jobs.”
Recognizing that there is not an interest for heavy manufacturing in the county, Hoagland related in a phone interview that the corporation’s target areas are value-added agriculture and “knowledge” work such as provided by One Up Web. The company, which specializes in search engine optimization, was leaving Leelanau County until the EDC helped provide a building in Greilickville.
Working closely with the Traverse City EDC is another one of the corporation’s goals. “We’re looking at putting in high-speed internet throughout the county. That way people that don’t have to be on site to do their work can move their businesses up here,” said Hoagland.
Among other interests and projects on the Leelanau County EDC radar is the Sugarloaf development, which was recently brought to the forefront through a purchase move by Las Vegas businessman Eneliko “Liko” Smith.
“I personally have been trying to track developments or lack thereof with Sugarloaf. The EDC stands ready, if and when any legitimate proposal or developer comes to us,” Hoagland said.
Relating that other areas of the country invest millions into local EDCs, Hoagland feels that Leelanau’s version is doing great things given its limited resources.
By Jack Bolton
Enterprise Intern
WTF ?
Whoops
Good thinking on this
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
More on Housing - a long time problem
• An explicit federal guarantee of a large portion of the mortgage-backed securities created to finance American's home mortgages;
• A tax on these securities to fund low-income housing initiatives; and
• A requirement that issuers of securities meet affordable housing mandates.
Monday, August 16, 2010
File under ... duh
Policy makers have long worried that Americans aren't saving enough for old age. And lately, current and prospective retirees have been hit on many fronts at once: They have less money, they earn less on what they have, their houses aren't rising in value and the prospect of working longer to make up the shortfall has dimmed significantly in a lousy job market."
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Lame Duck already?
Big as Reagan's mandate was, in two elections, the man was never bigger than his country. There was never narcissism or a bloated sense of personal destiny in him. He gloried in the country, and drew sustenance from its heroic deeds and its capacity for recovery. No political class rode with him to power anxious to lay its hands on the nation's treasure, eager to supplant the forces of the market with its own economic preferences."
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Any hope for housing?
But attaining genuine remedies for our housing finance system could actually be harder than rocket science. That’s because it would require an honest dialogue about the role the federal government should play in housing. It also requires a candid conversation about whether promoting homeownership through tax policy and other federal efforts remains a good idea, given the economic disaster we’ve just lived through."
Monday, August 09, 2010
Capital Ideas
There are at least four channels through which Mr. Bush's tax reform (proposed and passed) raised the long-run productive capacity of the economy—that is, increased the size of the pie. First, since lower taxes mean higher returns to investors, those investors allocate more funds to corporate capital. Corporations can raise capital for investment more cheaply. As a result, the nation's capital stock and output increase.
Second, reducing or eliminating the differential tax treatment between corporate and noncorporate investments means that investment flows are not channeled artificially by tax considerations and the overall productivity of the economy increases.
Third, lowering or eliminating taxes on capital mitigates distortions in our financial structure. Prior to 2003, equity financing was disadvantaged relative to debt financing, with taxes levied twice, at the corporate level and again at the investor level. Because interest payments to debt holders are deductible at the corporate level, debt financing was taxed only once, at the investor level. This system contributed to over-reliance on debt financing. The 2003 tax cuts reduced this bias substantially. Nonfinancial companies went into the recent crisis with lower leverage as a result, a very good thing.
Fourth, low taxes on dividends encourage firms with few growth opportunities to distribute the funds to shareholders. Those shareholders could then reinvest funds in other, more innovative and productive ventures—another very good thing for economic efficiency and growth.
Putting together the effects of greater capital accumulation and improved capital allocation, I estimated at the Council of Economic Advisers that, despite slightly higher interest rates caused by an increase in government debt, the president's 2003 proposal would raise real GDP permanently by about $75 billion annually.
Times change
Go with stocks
Yet, the next ten years could be much different, and Pimco doesn't want to be stuck in last decade's asset class."
Deflation
Sunday, August 08, 2010
Communication links
Electric Car Hooey
EV only twice as efficient, until you consider generation and transmission losses.
Now let’s consider the rest:
Idling – that can be solved, some by traffic control, some by “instant on” controls.
Also there are variable displacement engines – shut off cylinders when not needed.
Regenerative braking – which I like with Hybrids
Drivetrain – maybe EV can be a bit better, if you place motors in hubs (but then you have nasty suspension issues – unsprung weight is bad)
Rolling resistance – tires – trade off of traction vs rolling resistance, AND proper inflation is major issue – moot
Air resistance applies to all vehicles – moot
Stereo, A/C etc also applies to all – moot
Lets now look at the energy to make the batteries, disposal, carrying excess weight of batteries when partially discharged.
Conclusion – inconclusive