Looney Dunes

Greek Bonds May Offer Contrarian Clues to U.S. Stocks - NYTimes.com

2011-11-06T05:19:00.000-05:00

Greek Bonds May Offer Contrarian Clues to U.S. Stocks - NYTimes.com: IT’S come to this. For day-to-day guidance on the likely direction of American stocks, there’s an unlikely contrarian indicator: the battered Greek bond.�

Some ink

2011-11-05T15:49:00.000-04:00

OK, it's been a while
Busy

But some press

Crain's on Farmland

and on efforts here in Leelanau County

We already knew this

2011-08-19T07:49:00.000-04:00

Our home town

Sleeping Bear Dunes, Michigan Voted Good Morning America's 'Most Beautiful Place' - ABC News

By ALBERTO ORSO and SABRINA PARISE

Aug. 17, 2011

Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore, tucked away in the northwest corner of Michigan's Lower Peninsula, won the title of "Good Morning America's" Most Beautiful Place in America.

Tens of thousands of viewers voted online for this Michigan park, which is one of the nation's best-kept secrets. The hidden gem boasts 64 miles of beaches along Lake Michigan, two islands, 26 inland lakes, more than 50,000 acres of land, and the monumental sand dunes from which it gets its name.

Take that Ron Paul ...

2011-08-07T10:51:00.000-04:00

Standard & Poor's Downgrade: How Debt Has Defined Human History - Speakeasy - WSJ: "...contrary to popular belief, credit has been the predominant form of money in world history. In ancient Mesopotamia, elaborate credit systems predated coinage by thousands of years. Periods in which people assume that money really “is” gold and silver, let alone use cash in most everyday transactions, are more the exception than the rule. Ancient empires, for instance, used coins mainly to pay soldiers, and when those empires dissolved in the early Middle Ages, society didn’t really “revert to barter,” as its often believed, but returned to elaborate credit systems—denominated in Roman (and then Carolingian) currency that no longer actually physically existed."

Ken Langone on Obama

2011-07-28T11:42:00.002-04:00

Pithy comments:

here, CNBC clip

College english

2011-07-28T08:55:00.000-04:00

Highlights in red ... it's education issues ... stupid

Looking Inside the Consumer Bust - NYTimes.com:

"Among all 4 of my brothers and sisters, all of us have college degrees and all of us are unemployed most of times during last 20 years in heath care, education and IT sector,
all of us have less than 2 kids and married.
Yet all of us are constantly in deep debt, none of us paid off even 20% of our outstanding student loan, one of us are in foreclosure and one of us has file bankruptcy protection, etc.
In short, I sincerely believe American Dream is the greatest fraud in human history, because I REFUSE to pretend middle class anymore, I refuse to deluding myself anymore!!"

Racin

2011-07-25T20:03:00.000-04:00

Stoner chasing Lorenzo at Laguna Seca CA, 325lbs, 200hp, leaned over and honkin

Showdown

2011-07-24T21:48:00.001-04:00

July 24: Daley, Coburn, Hagel, Kinzinger, Booker, Goodwin, Mitchell - Meet the Press - Transcripts - msnbc.com: "MR. GREGORY: Joining me now, a member of the Senate Finance Committee and the so-called Gang of Six negotiator, Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma.
Senator, welcome back to MEET THE PRESS.
SEN. TOM COBURN (R-OK): Good morning. How are you?"

MR. GREGORY: I'm fine. I want to get your reaction to what you heard from Bill Daley here from the White House this morning, which is the president will not sign a deal that results in only a temporary increase of the debt limit. He wants to see something that gets us through 2013.

SEN. COBURN: Well, first of all I think that's a ridiculous position because that's what he's going to get presented with. That's the compromise way through that's going to build the compromise. David, everybody's talking about the, the symptoms of our problem instead of the real disease. The government's twice the size it was 10 years ago. It's 30 percent bigger than it was when President Obama became president. The problem is that we're spending way too much money, and, and it's not hard to cut it without hurting entitlement benefits. But we don't have anybody that wants to do that without getting a tax increase.

MR. GREGORY: Well, all right, well, I want to get to taxes in just a minute. But I want to talk about the here and now, which is a failed political system at the moment, and what you heard from Mr. Daley, very difficult days in the financial markets and a lack of confidence around the world at the United States' credit worthiness and its ability to reach some kind of consensus. Does that not have to create a breakthrough along the lines of what the president is talking about? Cuts that are large enough and an extension of the debt ceiling that's long enough to say to the markets, you know, "You can count on the United States."

SEN. COBURN: I don't agree with that because, if you give an extension of $2.4 trillion to this president and this administration, which is--has policies that have actually hurt our recovery, I think you actually hurt the possibility of keeping our AAA rating without making the fundamental changes that have to come to this government. Unless you reform entitlements and unless you get rid of the waste and duplication--there's, there's $2 trillion over 10 years in duplication and fraud in the federal government before you even talk about entitlement programs. You mentioned the FAA program with Mr. Daley. You know what's holding up the FAA program? Is essential air services where the American people are paying $1,000 a ticket in subsidy to people that are riding from airports with six passengers on a plane when they could drive an hour and a half and get an airplane, and we wouldn't be paying the $1,000. So it's continued waste and duplication in the federal government and they won't approve the FAA because they continue to want to subsidize irresponsible and wasteful behavior.

MR. GREGORY: Is it responsible to get to a point where we pass the August 2 deadline and risk default?

SEN. COBURN: I don't think so. I think we'll get there, and I think the president--I understand why they're saying they won't sign a short term, but I think they won't have any choice, and I think that's the only answer right now. I would make the other point, the deficit commission put out a pretty good plan. It was dead-panned by this administration. Had they come alongside, started supporting that long time ago, we wouldn't be where we are today. And that was the president's commission. He had 11 members out of the 18--60 percent--that supported that and it got absolute cold shoulder from the administration.

MR. GREGORY: I want to ask...

Advertise | AdChoices

SEN. COBURN: So for them to come back now and to say, to use that, when they rejected it out of hand, did not embrace their own commission. So it's not intellectually honest to say that that was one of the steps, because they didn't want it because it had entitlement reform in it.

MR. GREGORY: Let, let me get to the heart of the matter, you have been outspoken on the issue of taxes. You believe in lower taxes, certainly as a matter of principle as a conservative, but you've also talked about the need for compromise. That is not something that's happened among conservatives on Capitol Hill and among the leadership. This is how The New York Times editorialized about it on Saturday morning. "The Party That Can't Say Yes," it writes, "In the end, it was Mr. Boehner who torpedoed the talks. He said Friday evening that he and the president had come close to agreeing on $800 billion of tax--of revenue increases"--tax hikes--"but could not stomach another $400 billion the White House wanted to raise through extending tax loopholes and deductions. So on the eve of economic calamity, the Republicans killed an overly generous deal largely over a paltry $400 billion in deductions. Mr. Obama was willing to take considerable heat from his liberal critics over the deal, and the Republicans were not willing to do a thing to anger their Tea Party base." What do you say to that?

SEN. COBURN: Well, I'd say a couple of things. Number one is nobody in America has actually seen a plan from this administration put on paper for us to visualize and to actually look at what they were willing to give up. So we don't know what that, what that is. There's no question there's waste in the tax credits that are in the code. There's no question there's favors for individuals in the code that ought to be eliminated. And we can do that, but you ought to do that as you lower the rates because our biggest problem isn't that taxes are too low, it's that the government interference and the oppressive nature of our government on our economy is lessening the economy's response. So I, I would vote for a compromise, as I did in the deficit commission, as I worked with the guys in the Gang of Six, provided you get significant changes to the real problems that is facing us, which is waste and the duplication and the fraud in the federal government programs; and number two, reforming the entitlements. Mr. Daley also said that they were going to oppose anything that would fundamentally change Medicare. Well, Medicare is belly-up. Anybody that's on Medicare today, I want to tell you, in five years, it's going to have to change.

MR. GREGORY: Mm-hmm.

SEN. COBURN: We cannot borrow the money to keep it going the way it is today.

MR. GREGORY: All right. Senator, final...

SEN. COBURN: So people need to know that, rather than to take a false assumption that you won't change something.

MR. GREGORY: Final question, what is your message to those in the tea party caucus in the House about tax increases and what needs to be done to get a deal?

SEN. COBURN: Well, ideally, we would not have tax increases. But to get a deal, if we eliminated ethanol blending tax credits, wind energy tax credits, tons of other tax credits, then we could get a deal and what that would not do is impact the average American, would not raise rates. We should use that money to lower rates and--but with that, get significant fundamental entitlement reform and discretionary spending reform.

MR. GREGORY: All right. We're going to leave it there. Senator Coburn, thank you very much.

SEN. COBURN: Glad to be with you.

Antrim Bellaire Fishermans Paradise

2011-07-20T06:25:00.001-04:00

Antrim Bellaire Fishermans Paradise, a photo by UpNorth Memories - Donald (Don) Harrison on Flickr.

Once upon a time, mid 50's till closing sometime late 60's ? this was summer.
American Plan resort, family and friends (of the adults, some amongst the other kids) fond memories

File under duh ... do ya suppose?

2011-07-13T13:23:00.000-04:00

Did the Continental Drift Create an Oil Bonanza? - BusinessWeek:

"More than 90 million years ago, when the land mass of Pangaea began separating into the continents we now call South America and Africa, the earth may have produced a lucrative farewell gift: huge oil and gas deposits along both coastlines where they had previously been joined. Now, Angus McCoss, exploration director and chief geologist at Tullow Oil, which in 2007 discovered one of the biggest oil finds of recent years off the coast of West Africa, is betting more than $100 million that a similar bonanza awaits off South America's eastern shore."

Commentary: A Few Bad Apples Spoil...Not Much

2011-07-07T11:58:00.000-04:00

At least we have a system that flushes them out (like quail) and flushes them down (like ... sh*t)

Commentary: A Few Bad Apples Spoil...Not Much

Biotech's Fountain Of Youth

2011-07-07T11:43:00.000-04:00

Scanning and saving older reading stuff - interesting on biotech and the future for humans - until I spotted that the author worked at MuSoft (new take on the blue screen of death) ... but also, imagine the Social Security issues with even greater life extension

Biotech's Fountain Of Youth

Sometimes valid, but often a warning sign

2011-07-04T10:15:00.000-04:00

Diversification and liquidity may be valid reasons, but there are enough situations of failure of faith in the company is the reason

Full disclosure should be required

Some CEOs Are Selling Their Companies Short - BusinessWeek

Here we go again

2011-07-04T08:32:00.002-04:00

Deeper changes afoot
More urbanization, which, ecologically speaking isn't all bad.
Drive population back from suburbs to the cities, less need for cars.
(are urban populations easier to manage?)
Mandate public transit as alternative, which is also workable.
(do passengers feel less independent?)

Discourage distance travel ... TSA is well on it's way to discouraging air-travel
(train population to be herded and managed by uniformed staff?)

For personal transportation :
We'll ignore physics, geography and infrastructure

Compare American market to Europe and make them equal ?

Not

New Mileage Rules Debated by Carmakers and White House - NYTimes.com:

"The Obama administration and the auto industry are locked in negotiations over new vehicle mileage and emissions standards that will have a profound effect on the cars Americans drive and the health of the auto industry over the next decade and beyond."

Mandate for over 56MPG
Can be done, but, besides going hybrid, likely means mandates on size and performance.
Aerodynamics - smaller cross section... smaller
Mass - reduce it...smaller
Power, less horsepower, although "on demand" electrical back up could help.

and
HEARD ON THE STREET: A Long and Winding Road for Electric Vehicles - WSJ.com:

By LIAM DENNING
Electric cars can draw their power from natural gas, coal, wind or even the sun. But their economics are purely nuclear.
View Full Image
Nuclear power stations are relatively cheap to run, but enormously expensive to build. To commit to that, you need either very cheap financing—preferably subsidized—or clairvoyance on long-term electricity prices. The same goes for electric cars.
In a forthcoming report, the Boston Consulting Group estimates that even though costs should fall by 64% between 2009 and 2020, a typical 20 kilowatt-hour (kWh) battery for a pure electric vehicle will still set you back almost $10,000 in today's money by the end of that period. So while your futuristic ride will run on lower cost electricity versus presumably expensive gasoline, the upfront outlay could negate this benefit.
Compounding this, BCG foresees manufacturers breathing new life into vehicles using traditional internal combustion engines, spurred on by tightening tailpipe emissions standards. Tweaks range from sleeker chassis reducing drag to lighter materials and better engines. Getting a typical compact car to 47 miles per gallon, or MPG, under this scenario, could cost just $2,000 extra per vehicle. Current average fuel economy is about 26 MPG.
Reuters
Above, a 2011 Chevrolet Vol.
That could be a powerful headwind not just for battery-powered vehicles, but also hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles such as General Motors' Chevrolet Volt. Under BCG's scenario for tailpipe emissions reductions, the extra cost involved with a hybrid vehicle compared to current combustion engine vehicles could amount to $5,000 in today's money by 2020, about half the extra cost of a battery-only vehicle. Plug-in costs would lie somewhere in between.
So how many years would it take for a typical driver to make back the extra outlay for different technologies with fuel savings?
Assume a driver travels 14,000 miles per year. The advanced internal combustion engine gets 47 miles per gallon. The hybrid and, during the 20% of the time it runs on its gasoline engine, the plug-in hybrid both get 79 miles per gallon. That assumes they maintain their efficiency advantage relative to our new and improved traditional engine. The all-electric vehicle, meanwhile, and the plug-in's electric motor get four miles per kWh.
Assume also that annual maintenance costs range from $400 for the vehicle with the internal combustion engine down to $200 for the pure electric vehicle, which has fewer moving parts. In addition, discount annual cash outlays at 5%, in line with vehicle financing costs.
The key input is energy. At long-term prices of $4.50 for a gallon of gasoline and 11 cents per kWh, it takes just under six years for the hybrid vehicle to be more cost effective than the one with the advanced internal combustion engine. The plug-in's payback period is seven years; the electric vehicle about eight years. That's a long time in car years; beyond the expiry of a typical lease.
Higher gasoline prices shift things in the electric car's favor: At $6 gasoline, it pays off in less than six years. That's still pretty long and also doesn't factor in any costs for, say, installing a charger in your garage.
For electric vehicles to make serious headway, they will need much higher fuel prices or taxes, faster reduction in technology costs, or continuing big subsidies. The latter looks unlikely to prove sustainable in the U.S., which is why, in line with BCG's thinking, China and Europe— where regulatory incentives are more widespread than the U.S.—could be more receptive markets. What millions of Chinese driving gasoline-free vehicles will do to the oil price that underpins the electric vehicle's economics is another matter.

Fourth of July

2011-07-04T08:23:00.000-04:00

Walter Russell Mead: The Future Still Belongs to America - WSJ.com:

"This tsunami of change affects every society—and turbulent politics in so many countries make for a turbulent international environment. Managing, mastering and surviving change: These are the primary tasks of every ruler and polity. Increasingly these are also the primary tasks of every firm and household.

This challenge will not go away. On the contrary: It has increased, and it will go on increasing through the rest of our time. The 19th century was more tumultuous than its predecessor; the 20th was more tumultuous still, and the 21st will be the fastest, most exhilarating and most dangerous ride the world has ever seen.

Everybody is going to feel the stress, but the United States of America is better placed to surf this transformation than any other country. Change is our home field. It is who we are and what we do. Brazil may be the country of the future, but America is its hometown."

China: Keep it in perspective

2011-07-02T09:33:00.000-04:00

"State-owned enterprises, an immature financial system, the specter of unpredictable social forces - hardly the formula for spawning aerospace giants."

Aviation Week April 25-May 2, 2011

Yup

2011-06-25T08:34:00.001-04:00

Flop gear: the failure of Formula 1 - FT.com:

"Formula 1 racing is a sexy sport … so how come it’s also so incredibly boring? Seriously, it takes a particular kind of genius to take something whose components include astonishing cars, vast amounts of cash, high-speed chases, fit drivers and hot women hangers-on and turn it into an afternoon of mind-crushing dreariness."

Yup

2011-06-25T08:34:00.000-04:00

Flop gear: the failure of Formula 1 - FT.com:

Office in My head

2011-06-24T21:24:00.000-04:00

I know how this feels : office full of people (topics) in my head

Javier Bardem On A 'Biutiful' Acting Career : NPR:

"DAVIES: I mean it's a really dramatic role. And one of the things that's fascinating to me about it is that it takes place in Cuba but much of the dialogue is in English. How is acting in English different from acting in Spanish for you?

Mr. BARDEM: It's a different, it's a totally different situation and it's like here, I'm trying to express myself and share some opinions and be relaxed and giving you what I think, giving you some thoughts about what I feel or what I think and there's this office in my brain full of people working at the same time that I'm talking to you trying to not, I mean, be wrong with the intonation, with the words and so it's very exhausting."

Change you can believe in ...

2011-06-24T07:39:00.000-04:00

Restrict domestic drilling but open SPR, but no, it's not political ...

White House taps reserves with eye on votes - FT.com:

"The decision to release oil from the SPR caused surprise in Washington, with analysts saying it was unprecedented because the US has released oil only twice before – after the 1991 Gulf war and after hurricane Katrina.
Even after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the Bush administration decided against using the SPR on the grounds that oil supplies were not affected.
Since the Libyan conflict has been going on for almost four months, the move fuelled suggestions that the administration’s motives are purely political.
The White House denied this, saying oil was being released because the president was concerned about the “greater tightness” in the market because the conflict in Libya had taken 140m barrels out of global supply. Hurricane Katrina resulted in the loss of only 38m barrels, a senior administration official said."

Change you can believe in

2011-06-24T07:23:00.000-04:00

Water boarding is evil, targeted assassinations are OK.

A weak America roars but retreats when the going gets tough | The A-List | Must-read views on today’s top news stories – FT.com – FT.com:

"Imagine how these same liberals would have reacted three years ago if it had been George W. Bush who had been ordering a campaign of targeted assassinations – not to mention overriding legal advice on the decision to launch air strikes against the Libyan government."

What can happen to hype

2011-06-23T13:13:00.001-04:00

Can Think's electric car revolutionize the auto industry? - August 1, 2007

"There is a fundamental shift happening that is going to require new business models," says Ed Kjaer, an electric vehicle veteran who runs the EV program for Southern California Edison. "The timing is right. We are on a path now toward electric cars, and there is no going back."

Norwegian EV maker Think files for bankruptcy - AutoWeek: today

"Tiny electric car maker Think Global AS filed for bankruptcy today in its home market of Norway after attempts to keep the company going through recapitalization and restructuring failed, the company said in a statement. It is the fourth time Think has collapsed financially in its 20-year history"

Juxtaposition

2011-06-18T17:35:00.000-04:00

Fascinating visit this week

Computer History Museum | At the Museum

and just finished reading

Bob Lutz's book 'Car Guys vs Bean Counters' (excerpt)

Columnists | Lutz says business theorists hurt auto industry more than UAW | The Detroit News

"...it is the management style of the big car makers that was the principle reason for the domestic industry's demise, led by theorists with impressive MBA degrees from the top universities who had massive IQs but no common sense, in Lutz's view.

'Throw the intellectuals out'

"(Successful entrepreneurs like Steve Jobs of Apple and Britain's Sir Richard Branson) have a blissful lack of awareness of the analytical science of business. Uninfected by the MBA virus, they simply strive to offer a better product, one that delights the customer. They control costs, of course. And they tolerate a necessary level of bureaucracy. It's essential. But the focus is on the product or service ... thus the customer. American business needs to throw the intellectuals out and get back to business!"

So is there a disconnect?

Not really

In business, you need passion for the product and/or service.

But, the age of the computer allows fast, detailed collection and analysis of data, which can (and should) be used to sharpen focus, improve speed to market, communications and all in all make business better.

I would agree with Lutz that data and analysis should not run the business

Computers and systems are tools

Lutz vs the MBA's

2011-06-17T20:53:00.003-04:00

Just like economics is not a "science" maybe business isn't either

Make delightful products, and or deliver delightful service and your company will work.

Beguile with quality not baffle with BS

"Lutz reckons that his experience is not just applicable to the automotive industry, but to business generally.

"Shoemakers should be run by shoe guys and software firms by software guys and supermarkets by supermarket guys. With the advice and support of their bean counters, absolutely, but with the final word going to those who live and breathe the customer experience. Passion and drive for excellence will win over the computer-like dispassionate, analysis-driven philosophy every time," Lutz said."

Columnists | Lutz says business theorists hurt auto industry more than UAW | The Detroit News:

"For the better part of my career, I have seen what these bright, analytical, dispassionate, data-driven geniuses have done to our country's industry and commerce. Through a relentless pursuit of 'winning strategies' and elaborate 'missions, values and goals' statements - which incidentally, consume vast amounts of non-value-added time - these modern MBA graduates reject the obvious as being 'simplistic' and believe that elaborate alternative scenario planning and 'test wells' will provide a better (if not logical) answer," he says.
'Throw the intellectuals out'
"(Successful entrepreneurs like Steve Jobs of Apple and Britain's Sir Richard Branson) have a blissful lack of awareness of the analytical science of business. Uninfected by the MBA virus, they simply strive to offer a better product, one that delights the customer. They control costs, of course. And they tolerate a necessary level of bureaucracy. It's essential. But the focus is on the product or service ... thus the customer. American business needs to throw the intellectuals out and get back to business!"

excerpt

This book is about what happened to America’s competitiveness, and why. Most of the examples and observations are from the automobile sector, for the simple reason that that’s what I know best, and I was a participant in the decades-long decline of General Motors. But the creeping malignancy that transformed the once all-powerful, world-dominating American economy from one that produced and exported to one that trades and imports is now common to all or most sectors.

It really boils down to a matter of focus, priorities, and business philosophy. Leaders who are predominantly motivated by financial reward, who bake that reward into the business plan and then manipulate all other variables to “hit that number,” will usually not hit the number, or, if they do, then only once. But the enterprise that is focused on excellence and on providing superior value will see revenue materialize and grow, and will be rewarded with good profit. Is profit an integral part of the business equation and a God-given right, no matter how compromised the product or service? Or is the financial result an unpredictable reward, bestowed upon the business by satisfied customers?

To some restaurant owners, people booking reservations weeks in advance is a sign that “we did something wrong.” Perhaps the food is too good . . . best to back off a bit on the quality of the meat and produce. Ease off on the butter! We’ll reduce cost, improve margins! And the customers, presumably, will keep coming, right?

But to other owners, the excess demand is a sign of success, of the formula working, of customers appreciating the value of their efforts. In this case, profit can be increased by selective higher pricing to keep the waiting times reasonable while gaining a premium reputation. Want to guess which restaurant will be in business longer, and be more successful?

surprise surprise

2011-06-17T13:02:00.000-04:00

Unemployment and construction trades

Jobless Rate Below Average in 25 States - Real Time Economics - WSJ:

"Joblessness has mostly fallen nationwide but the pace of improvement has varied widely. Western states, many of which were battered by the housing bust, are still plagued by high unemployment rates. Meanwhile, conditions have improved greatly in the Midwest, helped along by a strong manufacturing recovery. The Midwest and Northeast reported the lowest jobless rates regionally."

History

2011-06-17T11:25:00.001-04:00

Visited the Computer History Museum yesterday

Wow
It's all there

Flashbacks to my own, meager, exposure
Brief video covers most of it for me
The Art of Writing Software - CHM Revolution

Fortran - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia "Formula Translation" and the need to develop a language higher than machine language (binary code)

I hired on to do punch cards for MSU Grad Students while in high school, learning a bit of Fortran in the process

Later, pretty much passed on Cobol COBOL - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia and picked up a bit of Basic BASIC - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia to run on my first Apple II

While I managed to develop a basic financial oriented program (as if my lines of code could be describe as such) that would plot cyclic data patterns (stocks) it was cumbersome and not time efficient. I could manage to follow a handful of stocks, updated at the end of the day.

Then: VisiCalc 1979

Bob Frankston and Dan Brinklin

Harvard MBA candidate Daniel Bricklin and programmer Robert Frankston developed VisiCalc, the program that made a business machine of the personal computer, for the Apple II. VisiCalc (forVisible Calculator) automated the recalculation of spreadsheets. A huge success, more than 100,000 copies sold in one year.

Spreadsheets !!!

A higher level of data manipulation and I was home
Been working with spreadsheets ever since.
When "macros" were introduced, I commented "looks like code - I don't do code anymore"

Home Ownership Matters ???

2011-06-15T23:41:00.003-04:00

From Lansing Business Monthly

Plethora of inconsistent thought, so I'll reply (in red)

Home Ownership Matters

Recently there have been some in the media and academia questioning the value of homeownership. They ask if perhaps we would be better off as a nation of renters. This couldn’t be more wrong. Homeownership provides a litany of benefits for our nation, our community and for individual homeowners.

From the national perspective the 67 percent of American households that are homeowners pay 80 to 90 percent of individual federal income taxes which support programs that benefit all Americans. Research shows that for every home purchased $60,000 is pumped into the economy for furniture, home improvements and related items. Housing accounts for 15 percent of our gross domestic product.

GDP ... really?

Ongoing promotion of a consumer economy, without reference to source of products.

Does this help American production?

For our community, homeownership is critically important. In late 2010 the National Association of REALTORS® and Harris Interactive surveyed 1,880 homeowners and 1,115 renters about their community and quality of life. Though no causal relationship could be established, there is a strong correlation between owning a home and community satisfaction, quality of life, community connection, civic engagement and volunteerism.

"no causal relationship" ... then state correlation

Data please. What about urban areas where there are many long term renters.

Homeowners are often the glue that holds a community together. They do not move as often, vote and volunteer more, and bring stability to neighborhoods which helps reduce crime and support upkeep. Homeowners report enjoying a better quality of life, are happier and healthier, and feel a greater sense of control over their lives.

do not move-but now talent is tied down - double edged sword

According to a recent white paper by the National Association of REALTORS® titled “The Social Benefits of Homeownership” owner’s children tend to do better in school and stay in school longer.

unbiased source!

For the individual, besides the quality of life and health benefits, there are significant financial benefits of home ownership as well. Data from the Federal Reserve show a very real and extreme disparity in wealth between owners and renters. In 2007, the median net worth of home-owning families was $234,200 compared with $5,100 for renting families. The disparity has existed for many years and will continue to exist despite a decline in home values. Why is this?

health?

disparity of wealth - no chicken and egg reasoning here!

A homeowner’s equity in a home links a piece of their financial portfolio to the long-term growth of the economy. As our economy improves, homeowners will benefit. Real estate has greatly outperformed the stock market over the past 10 years despite declining values. With real estate you get to live in and enjoy your investment daily.

what benchmarks?

housing bubble followed the stock market bubble of the late 90's

now housing prices down the last 5 years about 30% while S&P is about flat since 2000 (not including dividends), my conclusion - total BS

S&P 500 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

No provision for transaction costs, realtors, closing costs, finance costs.

The portion of the mortgage payment that goes to principal repayment is not a cost of home ownership, it is forced monthly savings. As a forced monthly savings it is disciplined and largely painless.

forced monthly savings - if your property increases in value and we aren't even talking liquidity, which doesn't exist in today's market.

compare to constant dollar investments - invest the same amount in equities every month, if the prices are high, you buy less, if prices are low, you buy more shares.

Home ownership costs are generally stable while rents rise on the average of 3 percent a year. Renters are paying the landlord’s mortgage and homeowners pay themselves. Homeowners can also deduct mortgage interest and property taxes from their federal income tax. No wonder homeowners’ net worth is so much higher.

ownership costs - let's talk property taxes ...

will grant that there is a tax policy bias towards home ownership
if one does a bit of research, you would find that the genesis of tax law came about during the Great Depression, with an eye to both stability of the workforce for employers and assistance to this same population who otherwise had become more migrant
simply - to try to head off social unrest

today, you can have ossification of the work force where they cannot move to where there are better jobs if they are tied to failing property, having placed too much of their investment in an illiquid asset.

Here in Greater Lansing the opportunity for home ownership is better than it’s been in decades. Due to declines in average selling prices over the past four years and low mortgage rates we haven’t seen in 50 years, affordability here is remarkable. The average household income in Lansing would qualify for the conventional purchase of the median-priced home in most communities and low down payment FHA loans put houses in reach that would not have been possible for buyers just a few years ago. In fact, for first-time buyers, investors and move-up buyers it is hard to imagine a better time to buy.

opportunity for home ownership is better = prices are down

Improvements in the local economy including insurance company and auto-related hiring, declining unemployment and increased construction spending coupled with recovering IRAs and investment portfolios will contribute to a rise in confidence which will lead to rising home prices and sales volume. Anyone who has considered buying and qualifies for a mortgage should seriously consider participating in the American Dream now and begin to enjoy the many benefits of home ownership. Additionally, the national and local governments should do everything possible to support home ownership because it really does matter.

we are in the mess with home prices, in large part because of a national obsession, both parties, for increased home ownership - getting people who cannot handle home ownership into homes.

the market is suffering the hangover from a bubble of Brobdingnagian proportions

nationally, almost a quarter of all homeowners are "under water" (owe more than their homes are worth)

Number Of Underwater Mortgages Rises As More Homeowners Fall Behind

further comment :
US Housing Crisis Officially As Bad As Great Depression - CNBC
It's official: The housing crisis that began in 2006 and has recently entered a double dip is now worse than the Great Depression.

Prices have fallen some 33 percent since the market began its collapse, greater than the 31 percent fall that began in the late 1920s and culminated in the early 1930s, according to Case-Shiller data.

and

"Yet other factors are constraining the market.

After the fallout from the subprime debacle, in which millions lost their homes when they defaulted on loans they could not afford, banks changed underwriting standards.

More than four in every five mortgages now require a down payment of 20 percent, and credit history standards have tightened. At the same time, foreclosures continue at a brisk pace, pushing more supply onto the market and pressuring prices downward."

Debbie Barnett is the president and owner of Tomie Raines, Inc. The company was founded in 1977 and Barnett has owned the company since 2002. She began her real estate career and was an award-winning agent with two other local firms before joining Tomie Raines, Inc. in 1995. Barnett also owns TRI Title Agency and Tomie Raines Home Warranty Company.

High Oil Prices ...a drag on the economy

2011-06-12T13:35:00.001-04:00

Guess you can't have your cake and eat it too.
The administration cannot afford, for votes, to admit policy of high oil prices

For Obama, High Oil Prices Have a Green Lining - BusinessWeek:

"Truth be told, higher prices are what it takes to change the energy consumption habits of large numbers of Americans. 'Somehow we have to figure out how to boost the price of gasoline to the levels in Europe,' Energy Secretary Steven Chu told The Wall Street Journal in 2008 when he was director of the University of California's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Chu has backed away from that view since taking office."

Housing?

2011-06-12T10:12:00.000-04:00

Paraphrase "when will they ever learn?"

Housing vs productive work.

Housing drives sprawl, a consumption mentality, a debt driven economy, work force tied to location.

Wrong.

The Economy and D.C. - Renewed Weakness - NYTimes.com: "Of course, doing no harm will not be enough. The economy needs help, like direct federal job creation and options for homeowners to reduce the principal on troubled loans."

Because

2011-06-11T22:48:00.000-04:00

Doc Searls Weblog : Poetry

It's time

Housing ? hah

2011-06-10T21:30:00.000-04:00

Tom Keene Talks to Ed Yardeni - BusinessWeek:

"What flavor of crisis are we having right now?

All in all, we are still trying to dig out from under all the debt that accumulated over the past decade.

The 10-year yield is now around 3 percent. What does that say about expectations for slow growth?
The bond yield to me is the market's assessment of what the growth rate is for nominal GDP on a year-over-year basis, and 3 percent is pretty pathetic.

We come to June with 9 percent unemployment. What portion of that is structural, and what is cyclical?
There's a structural component. There's still a lot of people who were employed in housing industries who just haven't moved on.

It seems the next hurdle for housing is straightening out the paperwork.
No, it's not. It's mold and mildew. You are right that there's all this paperwork. It takes forever to foreclose on a house, and it's not even clear if you've got the right papers. So the buyer might say, well, I'm not convinced that everything's legal here. And so houses are on the market that are owned by the banks, they're sort of in limbo, and they're starting to deteriorate in quality. It's a major problem.

When do we get back to normal with housing?
Look, it could be seven, it could be 10 years, all total."

Investments

2011-06-08T05:57:00.000-04:00

Wall Street’s biggest secret - MarketWatch

Value wins, invest in profit-producing assets.

"This free lunch proves that the market is far from perfectly “efficient.” Haugen himself argues it drives “a stake through the heart of the efficient market hypothesis.”

Even members of the efficient market cult have been forced to concede some of these points. For decades they maintained that to earn higher returns, you needed to take on more volatility, or “risk.” Then they looked again at the data and realized it wasn’t quite true. They admitted, instead, that small companies had done better than large companies. And value stocks had done better than growth stocks – even though they entailed less risk."

Energy Debate

2011-06-08T05:40:00.000-04:00

Nuke-em and Gas-em

What is really needed is conservation and application of technology

The Cost of Renewable Energy Sources - NYTimes.com:

"Such profligate use of resources is the antithesis of the environmental ideal. Nearly four decades ago, the economist E. F. Schumacher distilled the essence of environmental protection down to three words: “Small is beautiful.” In the rush to do something — anything — to deal with the intractable problem of greenhouse gas emissions, environmental groups and policy makers have determined that renewable energy is the answer. But in doing so they’ve tossed Schumacher’s dictum into the ditch.

All energy and power systems exact a toll. If we are to take Schumacher’s phrase to heart while also reducing the rate of growth of greenhouse gas emissions, we must exploit the low-carbon energy sources — natural gas and, yes, nuclear — that have smaller footprints."

Not No Nukes, but rather New Nukes

2011-06-07T06:02:00.000-04:00

What's next for nuclear power: Nathan Myhrvold - Fortune Features:

"When your kids are afraid of the dark or the bogeyman under the bed, the appropriate thing as a parent is to be sensitive to their fears but also not to panic yourself. And in the same way, society has to draw conclusions based on engineering and science about what actually happened in Japan, what could have been done differently, how serious an issue this would be in other places, and make a rational decision on nuclear power. I am confident that a rational decision would say, 'Nuclear power is a super-important part of our future.'"

Demographics rule

2011-06-06T08:28:00.000-04:00

Robert Doll: The Bullish Case for the U.S. Economy - WSJ.com

Europe slips and slides, Japan is worse, China will slow

US wins

Long Term Thinking - on sprawl

2011-05-31T09:10:00.000-04:00

The topic of planned "sprawl" has been gnawing at me, and the argument(s) for re-urbanization

Found this to be interesting Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Is dispersal obsolete? - Dec 1954 - Google Books Result

1) cities as more "Green" - elevators are the most fuel efficient mode of transportation (other than walking/biking)
2) cities = civilization (see Stuart Brand on how 3rd world slums still beat rural life in the developing world)
3) transportation - light rail/busses etc may not be efficient when you seek to disperse population - still thinking that one through
We do know that the Interstate system was build with the potential of war in mind.

We're now over two decades past the fall of the only nuclear competition (Soviet Union) and therefore the rationale for dispersal
Give it a decade or more for the "facts" to become obvious, then we have 9/11 (I know of people who left NYC for the hinterlands of New England out of fear of repeat attacks)

Layer on the "affordable housing" fiasco that led to the financial crisis ... sprawl may be history.

Interesting conversation with Bernard Winograd last week (he and Carol are becoming residents)
Blame for the push to increase home ownership shared by both political parties, changing demographics impacting housing

Thought percolating is how to tie these threads into a coherent narrative and show some of the deeper impetus for suburbs

One advantage of age - I can recall the Cuban Missile Crisis, (and other events) growing up with knowledge that violent end of the world as we knew it was a real possibility

Whoops

2011-05-30T09:03:00.000-04:00

what happens when big, rapidly spinning things "go wrong"

2009 Sayano-Shushenskaya hydro accident - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

AW&ST referenced it as possible case of cyber-error, but maybe there were other causes

Just a placeholder

2011-05-30T08:29:00.000-04:00

This is pretty much a placeholder

Growing Local? Then Grow Job Skills | Our Voices

The point I was trying to make is that it's important for members of the food chain know where they stand in the value ladder. Do what you are best at, don't try to do everything.

Balderdash

2011-05-29T17:50:00.003-04:00

Cluelessness on the part of the NYTimes

As Housing Goes, So Goes the Economy - NYTimes.com:

"Since the problems in housing are not self-curing, a government fix is in order. But the Obama administration’s main antiforeclosure effort has fallen far short of its goal to modify three million to four million troubled loans."

Housing is not productive, and has been so abused (used as an ATM for consumerism ) that we have a totally mis-oriented economy.

Destruction of savings, sprawl, and, of course, the pollution of the financial markets (with mis-use of derivatives)

Try this
Angst in the United States: What's wrong with America's economy? | The Economist

Plenty of blame to share, and time for politicians to come back to the middle

"Meanwhile, the biggest dangers lie in an area that politicians barely mention: the labour market. The recent decline in the jobless rate has been misleading, the result of a surprisingly small growth in the workforce (as discouraged workers drop out) as much as fast job creation. A stubborn 46% of America’s jobless, some 6m people, have been out of work for more than six months. The weakness of the recovery is mostly to blame, but there are signs that America may be developing a distinctly European disease: structural unemployment."

And we have
America's jobless men: Decline of the working man | The Economist:
"Why ever fewer low-skilled American men have jobs" - because policies help discourage low skilled workers.

"When work doesn’t pay

Policies have created perverse incentives for both groups. The older dislocateds often try hard to be declared officially disabled, even though it can take up to three years and cost several thousand dollars in legal fees, not least because this brings access to Medicare, a government health-insurance scheme. (Many low-wage jobs do not come with health insurance.) But this is also a one-way street to permanent detachment from the workforce. In recent years the government has tried to encourage disability recipients to return to work, for instance by promising that they can stay on Medicare for several years. This scheme, says Larry Katz of Harvard University, has been “utterly ineffective”.

For the younger group, one cause of discouragement is the earned-income tax credit (EITC), America’s main anti-poverty tool, which tops up poorer people’s pay and thus rewards work. It is skewed towards those with children. The maximum EITC top-up for a childless person is less than $500 a year. Families with one child get more than six times as much; those with two, more than ten times. Single, low-skilled men therefore face a lower effective real wage than low-skilled women with children and have less incentive to work.

Child-support rules also discourage poorly skilled men from working. Many are absent fathers, whose child-support payments are often deducted directly from their pay. Some states levy an extra charge to cover welfare payments to the mother. In a dozen states men continue to accrue child-support obligations if they are in prison, from which they can emerge owing thousands of dollars. Deductions can amount to 65% or more of their wages."

Also Kansas City Fed's Hoenig Sees Need to Lift Rates - WSJ.com :

Mr. Hoenig said more thrift among American consumers would be a good thing in the long term.

"We've created a generation of instant gratification because our savings rate, which was running at eight percent for years and years...fell to two percent or less," he said. "If you look at countries, those that stay great...they have reasonable savings rate [s]."

Treating your house like an ATM is not savings - it's consuming ...

How it all fits

2011-05-29T17:34:00.000-04:00

Couple pieces on Futurology
Ray Kurzweil
Futurology (1): The new overlords | The Economist

and Michio Kaku
Futurology (2): Suspension of disbelief | The Economist

potential for ever accelerating advancements in science and technology

All of this is possible, but, if this is not the path that is followed, and we go more regional than global, one needs to be prepared.

So very tempting

2011-05-22T22:38:00.000-04:00

Don't know when, but short gold is so very tempting.

Up the stairs, but down the elevator shaft ...

FT.com / Lex - Gold: the bubble’s popping will be nasty: "There should be no big problems for the ETFs and their marketmakers; they could operate safely in liquidation mode. And physical buyers could be found to absorb the additional supply from the ETFs – at some price. But to clear the market, it is likely that the price would have to fall.

Predicting the top of the gold bubble is foolhardy. It is safer to predict that the bubble’s popping will be especially nasty."

Bill gets this one right

2011-05-22T10:18:00.000-04:00

Rare, for me, kudos to Bill

It's the teachers that count, not their unions

Behind Grass-Roots School Advocacy, Bill Gates - NYTimes.com

the long arc

2011-05-21T21:35:00.000-04:00

FT.com / FT Magazine - Henry Kissinger talks to Simon Schama:

"What Kissinger took from Elliott was that without grasping the long arc of time, any account of politics and government would be shallow and self-defeating. That long view is on full display in the China book, which insists – entertainingly – on going back to the origins of Chinese classical culture and on through the many dynasties of the Middle Kingdom before even touching the epoch of decline, dismemberment and revolution. Kissinger smiles at the scene with which he opens his book, in which Mao gathered together the leaders of the party to listen to his account of a war that occurred during the Tang dynasty. “It would be like one of our leaders going back to the wars of Charlemagne.” And you get the feeling that Kissinger believes that it would do them no harm if they did. Instead he laments that “contemporary politicians have very little sense of history. For them the Vietnam war is unimaginably far behind us, the Korean war has no relevance any more,” even though that conflict is very far from over and at any minute has the capability of going from cold to hot."

Oh those crazy frenchmen

2011-05-21T20:57:00.001-04:00

Belief in conspiracy when it comes to Dominique Strauss-Kahn, and the hotel maid ... well

FT.com / Comment / Opinion - Salutary insights into the French way of flirting:

"Virility is a sign of a successful politician. One who seduces women is also deemed likely to be able to seduce the public. And the French do like seduction: not the cliched bed-hopping kind of Hollywood imagination, but a subtler, more playful exchange between the sexes that lacks the tension often found in male-female relationships in English-speaking countries."

Gold-debuged

2011-05-21T20:27:00.000-04:00

This time, I agree with Soros - more risk than reward

FT.com / Commodities - Soros sharpens gold bubble debate:

Soros sharpens gold bubble debate
By Jack Farchy and James Mackintosh
Published: May 20 2011 19:20 | Last updated: May 20 2011 19:20
The ultimate asset bubble is gold . . .

It may go higher but it’s certainly not safe and it’s not going to last forever . . .

Gold has shown tendencies to go parabolic and usually bubbles tend to end in that parabolic rise before the collapse.

George Soros – who made the statements above at various points last year – has been one of gold’s most strident critics and also one of its largest investors.

EDITOR’S CHOICE
In depth: Gold - May-20

Mexican central bank buys 100 tonnes of gold - May-04

Lex: Gold and the dollar - Apr-20

Gold pierces $1,500 to set fresh high - Apr-20

Gold hits fresh high on US debt warning - Apr-18

Global Overview: Investors seek out havens - Apr-15

But now the billionaire financier has dumped a large portion of his gold investments, according to regulatory filings released this week and people with knowledge of the fund’s activities."

PT Barnum

2011-05-17T06:57:00.000-04:00

Sadly ... he's still going to be making noise

Trump Bows Out, but Spotlight Barely Dims - NYTimes.com: "Donald J. Trump announced on Monday that he would not seek the presidency, a development less important for the Republican field or his national political future — if he ever had one — than for what it said about a media culture that increasingly seems to give the spotlight to the loudest, most outrageous voices."

Make love not war ... continued ...

2011-05-16T21:15:00.000-04:00

Dominique Strauss-Kahn ... on the right
Does this F..ker look older than me (votes on FB are yes)
So much for European "make love not war"

The tragedy is that this may well impact the Euro-weak players may loose their champion

Europe : Make Love not War

2011-05-15T18:38:00.000-04:00

Great timing

Strauss-Kahn Arrest Comes at a Fragile Moment for the I.M.F. - NYTimes.com:

"Its hard to imagine a worse time for the International Monetary Fund to be without a forceful European leader.
Related

Sinking under a mountain of debt, Greece is on the verge of requesting more help from the European Union and the international fund. Ireland’s economic recovery from its banking crisis remains a distant prospect at best. And once an international aid deal is concluded for Portugal, the question shifts to whether Spain’s much larger and increasingly stagnant economy may need a financial lifeline.

Indeed, the most bitter twist for Dominique Strauss-Kahn is that his personal crisis comes at a time that the I.M.F.’s influence globally is at a many-decades peak, especially within Europe, his own stomping ground."

gathering storm II

2011-05-11T17:28:00.000-04:00

gathering storm II, a photo by John Hoagland on Flickr.

a bit different ...

gathering storm

2011-05-11T15:51:00.001-04:00

gathering storm, a photo by John Hoagland on Flickr.

Bit of weather this AM

Yes But

2011-05-09T08:36:00.000-04:00

Keep Calm and Carry On - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Cheetos Lip Balm moment

2011-05-08T07:39:00.000-04:00

Erin Burnett's Goodbye

WWF Politics?

2011-04-25T21:52:00.000-04:00

Politics of smack down vs rational thought - well, it should make the media happy.

Democrats Form Super PACS For 2012 : NPR:

"Democrats railed against big-money political advertising groups in 2010. Now, they're forming their own network of such groups for 2012."

on Republicans

2011-04-25T19:51:00.003-04:00

Sometime last year - she gets it right

Meghan McCain on the GOP:

Rather than the party of openness and individual freedom, it is now the party of limited message and less freedom.

Along with ideological narrowness the important PR battle is being lost.

Rather than leading us into the exhilarating fresh air of liberty, a chorus of voices on the radical right is taking us to a place of intolerance and anger

On how to have a discussion

2011-04-24T19:32:00.000-04:00

A Code of Conduct for Effective Rational Discussion — LimbicNutrition Weblog

Easter Dinner

2011-04-24T18:39:00.001-04:00

Quiet day with my bride

Steak 'n Shake

Because
A National Hamburger Chain We Can Be Proud Of - Taste of America: Six Things I Want to Eat in 2011 - TIME:

(note: photo not of Steak & Shake burger)

There are some great hamburger chains in the U.S. — places whose patties are beefy, juicy and fresh, and are served nestled between halves of a properly airy and toasted bun. But sadly, they are all regional chains — Steak 'n Shake in the Midwest, Smashburger in the mountain states, the Counter in Southern California. When will a national burger chain come into being that serves something along these lines? I believe that this is the year. Too much money is being made by these minichains for the big national ones to ignore their success. Last year's stunt burgers and other marketing initiatives are over; now the long climb toward genuine quality control begins. But who will be the ones to pull it off?"

link collections

2011-04-24T12:14:00.000-04:00

‘Longevity Project’ - Review - In 80-Year Study, Good News for the Diligent - NYTimes.com

Review & Outlook: The Obama Speech Downgrade - WSJ.com

Obama’s Young Mother Abroad - NYTimes.com

Online Help for Those Who Want to Make Tangible Stuff - NYTimes.com

FT.com / Comment / Opinion - Tighten your seatbelts: 2011 could be worse than 2010

Endurance

2011-04-15T22:41:00.000-04:00

found tonight, use to manage this stuff ... 24hr racing, 4PM Saturday to 4PM Sunday

e pluribus unum

2011-04-12T06:31:00.000-04:00

Soros, Bretton Woods II And The Twilight Of The Gods - Ralph Benko - A Golden Age - Forbes:

"Rather than State-controlled or Big Business-controlled economies … why not look to the people?

On February 7, 2000, The New Yorker’s John Cassidy wrote in a piece both brilliantly insightful and rigorously honest, “The Price Prophet,” that “It is hardly an exaggeration to refer to the twentieth century as the Hayek century.”

Not Keynes. Hayek.

Cassidy encapsulates the core insight of Hayek as follows.“This view of capitalism as a spontaneous information-processing machine—a ‘telecommunications system’ was how Hayek referred to it—was one of the great insights of the century. It may have been implicit in the work of some previous economists, notably Adam Smith, but Hayek was the first to spell it out. Even left-wing economists, who regarded capitalism primarily as a system of social exploitation, were eventually forced to concede the acuity of Hayek’s analysis….”"

Glut

2011-04-10T12:16:00.000-04:00

Planning on making a killing with all your "stuff" on e-Bay?

Think again - simple supply & demand

Supply is high and growing - means crash in prices.

Downsizing Boomers Looking to Sell Their Stuff - SmartMoney.com:

"With some 8,000 Americans turning 65 every day, on average, and the senior population expected to double by 2050, millions are facing a massive, multifaceted purge that's turning out to be much tougher than they thought it would be. And millions more find themselves in similar quandaries as they deal with the truckloads they've inherited from packrat relatives. Indeed, whether they're leaving an heirloom china set at the local consignment store or packing a stately grandfather clock off to Sotheby's, many are discovering that the resale market is glutted with household goods. And oriental rugs are only the beginning. Got a home full of middle-market, traditional-style furniture to sell? Dealers say that stuff's plunged 50 to 75 percent in value."

North

2011-04-09T17:36:00.000-04:00

Caribbean ?

Aegean, that wine dark sea?

Nope

Lake Michigan, looking due north, Good Harbor Bay this afternoon

Huh?

2011-03-24T21:03:00.000-04:00

File under Whisky Tango Foxtrot

Who dealt this mess?

1 - F-ing thousand? ? ?

Libyan Rebel Insider Points to Weaknesses - NYTimes.com: "And now, as they try to defeat Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s armed forces and militias, they will have to rely on allied airstrikes and young men with guns because the army that rebel military leaders bragged about consists of only about 1,000 trained men."

Case Closed

2011-03-24T20:52:00.001-04:00

Something like a Volt, despite being simply an overweight, overpriced Cruze, maybe, but straight electric - nope.

Long-term Nissan Leaf update: Hey, buddy, can you spare a plug? - AutoWeek Magazine:

"If you have an electric car, you have to plan out longer trips on Mapquest or Google Maps to make sure they're doable. It's math so simple even I could do it. But didn't."
and ... drumroll

"The lesson here? Just as you can't or shouldn't bring a knife to a gunfight, don't try to go farther than your EV can go on a charge. At least unless you are sure there's a 240-volt charger somewhere on your route with a J1772 plug."

China and the world

2011-03-24T13:38:00.000-04:00

I seem to see more problems than Martin does - demographic wall looming, but some interesting thoughts

FT.com / Comment & analysis / FT Columnists - How China should rule the world:

"For the first time in its long history, China is dependent on access to imports of industrial raw materials. It is already the world’s largest importer of most raw materials. For China, policy in this area is of potentially the highest importance. Its immediate interest is to gain access to the world’s resources on favourable terms. It has decided, quite reasonably, to use its cheap capital and labour to secure this end. That is not only in China’s own interests but in those of other consumers. Since resources have global prices, any increase in supply is to the benefit of all consumers."

Euro issues

2011-03-24T13:08:00.000-04:00

Shared doubts about European willpower to solve the issues.

FT.com / Comment / Opinion - View from a Yankee in the eurozone’s court:

"To a visitor from across the pond, the commotion in Europe over how to address its fiscal problems (or are they economic problems?) feels reminiscent of the disarray in America as its financial crisis unfolded a few years ago."

I still have my doubts

2011-03-24T05:55:00.000-04:00

An aging economy (Europe) and a history of conflict (one of the main reasons for the Euro - to help end conflict), differing cultures (frugal, or live for today) ... not my choice for reserve currency

Another European Crisis Looming? - Newsweek:

"While the world has been transfixed with Japan, Europe has been struggling to avoid another financial crisis. On any Richter scale of economic threats, this may ultimately count more than Japan’s grim tragedy. One reason is size. Europe represents about 20 percent of the world economy; Japan’s share is about 6 percent. Another is that Japan may recover faster than is now imagined; that happened after the 1995 Kobe earthquake. But it’s hard to discuss the “world economic crisis” in the past tense as long as Europe’s debt problem festers—and it does."

B-A-C-O-N

2011-03-20T21:22:00.000-04:00

One can never have too much

Money

Sex

Horsepower or

BACON

Bacon All Day:Men’s Journal

Crises Push Japan to a Crossroads - NYTimes.com

2011-03-20T20:50:00.001-04:00

Demographics - the crux of the problem

Crises Push Japan to a Crossroads - NYTimes.com:

"“It’s possible that this calamity will rid Japan of its old order,” Mr. Horie, now one of Japan’s most popular authors and bloggers, wrote in an e-mail, adding, “It’s an opportunity to build a new Japan.”

But first is the rebuilding. There are many factors working against Japan’s ability to carry it out as successfully as it has in the past: the absence of strong national leadership, the country’s declining economic strength and the simple lack of young people in the northern region."

Prior related pieces
Dearth of Candor From Japan’s Leadership - NYTimes.com

With all the euphemistic language on display from officials handling Japan’s nuclear crisis, one commodity has been in short supply: information.

When an explosion shook one of many stricken reactors at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant on Saturday, power company officials initially offered a typically opaque, and understated, explanation.

Bid to 'Protect Assets' Slowed Reactor Fight - WSJ.com

Crucial efforts to tame Japan's crippled nuclear plant were delayed by concerns over damaging valuable power assets and by initial passivity on the part of the government, people familiar with the situation said, offering new insight into the management of the crisis.

Japan Response to Nuclear-Reactor Crisis Breeds Mistrust - WSJ.com:

"The U.S. government, signaling distrust of reports from Japan about the nuclear crisis there, moved Thursday to evacuate U.S. citizens and set up its own channels of information—a step echoed by some American companies that laid plans to trim their operations in the stricken country."

Kabuki

2011-03-17T19:49:00.000-04:00

Problems have been piling up for years, soaring deficits, failed change of government, shrinking and aging population. Will this catastrophe be the final nail?

Will Japan become a "developing nation" again, sans youth?

Dearth of Candor From Japan’s Leadership - NYTimes.com: "With all the euphemistic language on display from officials handling Japan’s nuclear crisis, one commodity has been in short supply: information."

Lingenfelter

2011-03-13T10:45:00.001-04:00

I think I want one
Lingenfelter Suburban
6000 lb, 600 HP, what not to like?

Safe as Houses

2011-03-08T14:38:00.000-05:00

Economist lead on the topic, with embedded link to special report.

Real Estate is not a "perfect investment" matter of fact, it's pretty flawed as a household's prime investment.

Period

The perils of property: Home truths | The Economist

China ?

2011-03-07T22:46:00.001-05:00

China's Secret Weakness - Forbes.com : drugs and gambling

On America:
The Weekend Interview with Paul Johnson: Why America Will Stay on Top - WSJ.com:

"'Of course I worry about America,' he says. 'The whole world depends on America ultimately, particularly Britain. And also, I love America—a marvelous country. But in a sense I don't worry about America because I think America has such huge strengths—particularly its freedom of thought and expression—that it's going to survive as a top nation for the foreseeable future. And therefore take care of the world.'"

Francis Fukuyama’s New History of Human Social Structures - NYTimes.com:

"The Chinese political system, since it has no way of holding its rulers accountable, is in the long run unstable, in his view. “The Chinese have reasonably good technocratic leadership. They can move faster than a democracy and cut through interest groups. But that leaves them vulnerable to bad emperor problems. They think the last bad emperor they had was Mao,” he said."

Ageing in the rich world: The end of retirement | The Economist

2011-03-05T16:06:00.000-05:00

Cleaning office (some) and found the following.
From a minor pension for the few that managed to get to old age, to an entitlement expected after a rather brief working career (say from 25 to 64) compared to ones youth and life expediency (into the 80's and lengthening)

Ageing in the rich world: The end of retirement | The Economist:

"Now retirement is for everyone, and often as long as whole lives once were. In some European countries the average retirement lasts more than a quarter of a century. In America the official pension age is 66, but the average American retires at 64 and can then expect to live for another 16 years. Average spending on public pensions across the OECD is now the equivalent of more than 7% of GDP (they cost America just 0.2% back in 1935). In some countries the current figure could double by 2050, to say nothing of the cost of private pensions and extra spending on health and long-term care."

More from Myles on whole animal

2011-02-20T09:44:00.000-05:00

Trattoria Stella, a Traverse City Restaurant, Cooks in Whole-Animal Tradition - My North

Slow path to modern governments and economy

2011-02-14T09:14:00.000-05:00

Democracy in South Africa: A step backwards | The Economist:

"Although they give nominal support to democracy, most Africans continue to hold a deferential view of political authority, according to a recent study of 19 democratic countries on the continent carried out by Robert Mattes of the University of Cape Town. South Africa scored particularly poorly on questions relating to accountability. Barely one in three citizens thought that MPs should hold the president to account. Fewer than 40% agreed that “the government is like an employee; the people should be the bosses”, most preferring the view that “people are like children; the government should take care of them like a parent”. Only 10% thought that voters should hold MPs to account, whereas as many as four out of ten believed that presidents should be able to “decide everything”."

Reflections on following the news

2011-01-30T18:05:00.000-05:00

I guess it started early

I vaguely remember my mother following the Army McCarthy hearings - which would have been '54
Also, undated memories of going to the MSU Union with my father to watch coverage of news, likely Korea

But between '54 and '72 it was likely only the 15 min evening news - Huntley Brinkley and the like
When at Oberlin, I would drop by the campus radio station to read the newswires (either UPI or AP, I don't recall which)
Kennedy assination(s), but that was just a few days, protests of 68, again spotty

Then we had Watergate - and moved towards 24-7 coverage
CNN launches in '80, by then I was following FNN (morphed to CNBC)

Today we follow Cairo via FaceBook

Funny

2011-01-30T11:26:00.000-05:00

Driving home yesterday, looking for tunes or talk radio
Judy Collins beautiful rendition

Songwriters: Sondheim, Stephen : A little Night Music

Isn't it rich?
Are we a pair?
Me here at last on the ground,
You in mid-air.
Send in the clowns.

Isn't it bliss?
Don't you approve?
One who keeps tearing around,
One who can't move.
Where are the clowns?
Send in the clowns.

Just when I'd stopped opening doors,
Finally knowing the one that I wanted was yours,
Making my entrance again with my usual flair,
Sure of my lines,
No one is there.

Don't you love farce?
My fault I fear.
I thought that you'd want what I want.
Sorry, my dear.
But where are the clowns?
Quick, send in the clowns.
Don't bother, they're here.

Isn't it rich?
Isn't it queer,
Losing my timing this late
In my career?
And where are the clowns?
There ought to be clowns.
Well, maybe next year.

Then picked up NPR's "Wait Wait Don't Tell Me" and mention of this

Infertility? Send In The Clowns!:

"A small study, published in Fertility and Sterility on January 6, 2011, showed the advantages to laughter when in fertility treatment. What will they think of next? The study, comprised of 219 women, set up for women to be entertained by a professional “medical clown” right after transfer. The success rate was 36% versus %20 who went without the clown.

'Dr. Shevach Friedler, who led the work, said he got the idea for the study after reading about the potential physiological effects of laughter as a 'natural anti-stress mechanism.'"

Whoops

2011-01-23T15:45:00.003-05:00

Combine snow, a small birch (tagged to be removed) and a bit to much "oomph" to get through a drift and we have

A lighter wallet

Change of pace

2011-01-23T08:56:00.001-05:00

Meet Apple's New Boss, The Most Powerful Gay Man in Silicon Valley

Tim Cook

and will this sell a few million more iPads?

Playboy Promises To End iPad's 'Freedom from Porn'

Unions so 20th Century?

2011-01-22T21:05:00.000-05:00

Bargaining for employment: Union power and the jobless recovery | The Economist:

"...labor-industrial complexes of the postwar era were mostly cosy oligopolies; there was a lot of value for labor to extract because they didn't have to worry so much about losing their customers. Those cosy oligopolies had cosy relationships with bankers, who lent them money to keep overstaffed in downturns without much thought of how the depositors would feel, and the depositors didn't care because their heavily regulated accounts paid exactly the same interest rates as every other bank, and were federally insured."

Takes two to Tango

2011-01-18T20:09:00.001-05:00

Good or bad, this is the Sino-American Century

FT.com / Comment - East and west are in it together:

"Both China and the west have much to be proud about. Yet this does not mean that everything has gone smoothly. On the contrary, both sides have made mistakes in managing their economic interaction."

Please respect FT.com's ts&cs and copyright policy which allow you to: share links; copy content for personal use; & redistribute limited extracts. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights or use this link to reference the article - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/45c703f4-233c-11e0-b6a3-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1BRI7knEq

China, for example, allowed an extraordinary surge in exports and the current account surplus to mask the development of an increasingly unbalanced domestic economy. Chinese household consumption collapsed from an already very low share of 46 per cent of gross domestic product in 2000 to a mere 35 per cent in 2008.

Partly as a result of its decision to keep the exchange rate down, China emerged as the world’s largest surplus country, with a current account surplus peaking at 11 per cent of GDP and foreign currency reserves of about 50 per cent of GDP. These were foolish investments, made as a result of foolish policies. It is absurd for China’s leaders to complain about China’s consequent (and entirely unnecessary) vulnerability to US fiscal and monetary policies.

Meanwhile, the US and a number of other western countries allowed the supply of cheap foreign savings, partly from China, to encourage a huge surge in household debt, private consumption, residential construction and financial sector leverage. While the excess savings of the emerging world were not the principal cause of the financial crisis, they were a contributory factor.

Which will it be?

2011-01-17T01:39:00.001-05:00

Cost of Capital

Will it be

McKinsey & Company - Report : Farewell to cheap capital? The implications of long-term shifts in global investment and saving

FT.com / Comment / Op-Ed Columnists - Why we have to live with low interest rates

Markets are conversations - cluetrain maifesto

2011-01-16T17:21:00.000-05:00

How to drive a successful social media campaign | VentureBeat:

"The steps:

Focus: Hand pick small audiences that will have a positive emotional reaction to the campaign you’re pushing.

Grab attention: The more you remove barriers for the audience to help you, the better your chances. Breaking those down, in fact, is possibly more important than encouraging action on their behalf.

Engagement: Humans aren’t set up to understand logic. They’re set up to understand stories. Want to hook an audience? Talk to it, not at it."

50 years ago this week

2011-01-16T17:08:00.000-05:00

The Ask Not What Your Country Can Do For You speech by John F. Kennedy:

"And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you - ask what you can do for your country.

My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.

Finally, whether you are citizens of America or citizens of the world, ask of us the same high standards of strength and sacrifice which we ask of you."

Maybe not all apply, but some do

2011-01-16T16:35:00.000-05:00

11 Tricks to Cutting Travel Costs in 2011 - NYTimes.com

Public Employees Unions

2011-01-16T16:01:00.001-05:00

Franklin Roosevelt questioned public employee unions, voicing the opinion that they had a special relationship with the government and the public.

McGurn: Labor's Coming Class War - WSJ.com: "Labor's Coming Class War

Private-sector union workers begin to notice that their job prospects are at risk from public-employee union contracts."

States Seek Laws to Curb Power of Unions - NYTimes.com:

"State officials from both parties are wrestling with ways to curb the salaries and pensions of government employees, which typically make up a significant percentage of state budgets. On Wednesday, for example, New York’s new Democratic governor, Andrew M. Cuomo, is expected to call for a one-year salary freeze for state workers, a move that would save $200 million to $400 million and challenge labor’s traditional clout in Albany.

But in some cases — mostly in states with Republican governors and Republican statehouse majorities — officials are seeking more far-reaching, structural changes that would weaken the bargaining power and political influence of unions, including private sector ones."

And it's not just in America

The public sector unions: The battle ahead | The Economist: (link to leader with links to articles)

"Look around the world and the forces are massing. On one side are Californian prison guards, British policemen, French railworkers, Greek civil servants, and teachers just about everywhere. On the other stand the cash-strapped governments of the rich world. Even the mere mention of cuts has brought public-sector workers onto the streets across Europe. When those plans are put into action, expect much worse."

some done, many not yet

2011-01-16T13:53:00.001-05:00

Why 41?

Beats me

The 41 Places to Go in 2011 - NYTimes.com

Does/Will the Euro ever work

2011-01-15T22:52:00.002-05:00

NYTimes Sunday Mag cover story

The Road to Economic Crisis Is Paved With Euros - NYTimes.com

Deeper than most

More thinking here

The euro area: Time for Plan B | The Economist

I've been a skeptic for some time

Some history

European Coal and Steel Community - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I can recall going to a lecture by Jean Monnet at Fairchild Auditorium at Michigan State sometime back in the mid 60's.

The key was that it was formed to prevent any future wars between France and Germany

In Vino Veratas

2011-01-11T19:10:00.001-05:00

Doubt on Anti-Aging Molecule as Resveratrol Trial Is Halted - NYTimes.com:

"The pharmaceutical company Sirtris announced last month that it had halted the last of its clinical trials of resveratrol, the minor ingredient of red wine that some researchers see as a drug that can extend life.

The decision signifies an apparent divergence of views on the merits of resveratrol between the current head of the company, which was bought by GlaxoSmithKline in 2008 for $720 million, and its founders.

But mankind has been chasing this for many years

Armenian Winery Is Oldest Found to Date - WSJ.com:

"Scientists have discovered the world's oldest known winery, secreted amid dozens of prehistoric graves in a cavern in Armenia, an international research team said Tuesday.

Outside a mountain village still known for its wine-making skill, archaeologists unearthed a large vat set in a platform for treading grapes, along with the well-preserved remains of crushed grapes, seeds and vine leaves, dating to about 6,100 years ago—a thousand years older than other comparable finds."

Michael Aronstein on Green Swans

2011-01-11T16:10:00.001-05:00

Oct 14, 2010

Good insight

Michael Aronstein, President, Marketfield Asset Management | Analyst Wire | Find Articles at BNET:

"The fundamentals of the capital markets, if you look at liquidity and the posture of the participants, are much, much better now than people are judging if they come at it from one of the fundamentals of the economy and how will that affect the capital markets."

it's so warm it's cold

2011-01-11T14:13:00.000-05:00

Warmer water, more precipitation, more snow, colder air

Bundle Up, It’s Global Warming - NYTimes.com:

"...the overall warming of the atmosphere is actually creating cold-weather extremes. Last winter, too, was exceptionally snowy and cold across the Eastern United States and Eurasia, as were seven of the previous nine winters.

For a more detailed explanation, we must turn our attention to the snow in Siberia."

Kenneth G. Lieberthal - Brookings Institution

2011-01-11T12:25:00.000-05:00

Excellent source on China

Kenneth G. Lieberthal - Brookings Institution

The 60's

2011-01-11T11:49:00.000-05:00

For now, a placeholder for some posts on 67-68

Such as

German history and the Stasi: The gunshot that hoaxed a generation | The Economist

Violence in Europe and America

I was in Detroit shortly after the German incident

July 23rd and for about a week afterwards

The "12th Street" Riot, the beginning of the end for Detroit as a city

'68 and the student unrest in France, the Police Riot in Chicago

The end of the Kennedy-Johnson Administration, the beginning of the end of Viet Nam (Tet), end of Civil Rights movement as a multi-racial affair (beginning of the Black Power movement)

Prospects

2011-01-01T16:34:00.000-05:00

What does the global situation look like

Buttonwood: In a spin | The Economist:

"Indeed, for all the efforts of governments and central banks, many of the global economy’s long-term problems have yet to be solved. The banks are weak, the American housing market is still in the doldrums and the global imbalances have not gone away."

Conclusion - rates, in the US, will stay low

File under "duh"

2010-12-31T04:29:00.001-05:00

Back to the last PCForum, 2006

Conversation with guy from Cargill re: bio-fuels and the like

Opinion was that the VC's were full of themselves, didn't have a clue about biochemistry and fuels.

"As if Cargill hasn't investigated all of this?"

Layer on the capital demands and you are ripe for failure.

IT/IP calls for minimal capital in comparison.

What does Kleiner’s drift from cleantech mean for green investing? | VentureBeat:

"It appears that titan venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins is moving away from cleantech and going back to its roots in Internet investing, where it made famously good bets on companies like Amazon and Google."

and

It's about Capital Intensity - VC is about low intensity, not high

Score one for big energy

Cleantech VCs are thinking small | VentureBeat:

"Cleantech has been the industry of big-money investments in ambitious projects, but that may be changing, judging from a venture capital panel at VentureBeat’s GreenBeat conference today.

The most emphatic speaker on this point was Navin Chaddha, a partner at the Mayfield Fund. Chaddha said he’s more interested in investing “downstream” from energy generation, rather than in generation itself. That’s where entrepreneurs will find more opportunities, and those companies require less funding. As positive examples, Chaddha pointed to SolarCity (one of his portfolio companies) and SunRun, which aren’t trying to build giant solar plants or factories, and are instead trying to change the solar distribution model by bringing it directly to consumers.

On the flip side, he pointed to solar panel maker Solyndra, which has reportedly raised more than $1 billion but just announced that it’s closing one of its factories. $1 billion is more than most individual venture funds, Chaddha noted, and spending that much money on a single company is the “antithesis” of what venture capital is about."

Nope

2010-12-27T18:33:00.000-05:00

Note that I have only traded gold on the short side.

Despite problems with the current system, a gold backed system ensures poverty and low growth.

Could the world go back to the gold standard? | martin wolf's exchange | Economic commentary from the Financial Times – FT.com:

"In short, we cannot and will not go back to the gold standard. As L.P. Hartley wrote, “The past is a foreign country: they do things differently there.” We cannot live in the 19th century. It is foolish to pretend that we can."

Study Business, not Economics

2010-12-22T21:58:00.000-05:00

Schumpeter: Why do firms exist? | The Economist

Coarse : His central insight was that firms exist because going to the market all the time can impose heavy transaction costs. You need to hire workers, negotiate prices and enforce contracts, to name but three time-consuming activities. A firm is essentially a device for creating long-term contracts when short-term contracts are too bothersome. But if markets are so inefficient, why don’t firms go on getting bigger for ever? Mr Coase also pointed out that these little planned societies impose transaction costs of their own, which tend to rise as they grow bigger. The proper balance between hierarchies and markets is constantly recalibrated by the forces of competition: entrepreneurs may choose to lower transaction costs by forming firms but giant firms eventually become sluggish and uncompetitive.

Hah

2010-12-21T19:04:00.002-05:00

In my spam box today

Now if I wanted to tout it ...

But does not apply

message :

Jt Hoagland has been selected as the 2010 Best of Lansing Award winner in the Investment Advisory Service category by the US Commerce Association. We have tried to contact your business throughout the year but have not received any response. With this final notice you still have a chance to order an award for 2010.

The USCA identifies companies that excel in their business category and successfully market their business to the public and the local community. Each year, the "Best of Local Business" Award Program offers recognition to local businesses throughout the country based on the results.

Great Minds

2010-12-19T20:30:00.000-05:00

Think alike - understanding

Questions for Brian Greene - NYTimes.com:

"How would you define intelligence?"

Intelligence is the ability to take in information from the world and to find patterns in that information that allow you to organize your perceptions and understand the external world."

Brian Green?:

This interview is for our annual Ideas Issue, and because you’re a physicist at Columbia University who specializes in string theory and the secret life of invisible particles, let mestart by asking you this: Do you think the fieldof physics is continuing to provide the world with big, important, Einstein-level ideas?
Absolutely. Physics grapples with the largest questions the universe presents. Wheredid the totality of reality come from? Did time have a beginning?

yet more on China

2010-12-14T21:10:00.000-05:00

Chinese business: Where are the profits? | The Economist:

"Chinese stocks are cheap because the market has spotted some serious underlying problems. Here’s one: as revenues soar, profit margins are falling (see chart). Sales rose by a staggering 42% year-on-year in the first half of 2010. That was partly because the first half of 2009 was dreadful, but sales will still rise by an impressive 23% in the second half of 2010, predicts Macquarie Securities, a broker. Yet margins have been on a protracted slide that shows no sign of stabilising, says Michael Kurtz, Macquarie’s Asia strategist. Normally they rise by 1.5% in the first half of the year because of seasonal factors, but that did not happen in 2010.."

The government wants to allow ordinary people to enjoy more of the fruits of growth. Happy citizens are less likely to riot or demand the right to vote, it assumes. How far it will go remains to be seen, however. Will it allow the (artificially low) interest rates that banks pay depositors to rise? That would reduce the transfer of wealth from savers to well-connected corporations, which enjoy cheap credit. Will it allow the yuan to appreciate, thus walloping exporters but boosting consumers’ spending power? As usual in China, no one knows